2017 Preseason Top 100 Brewers Predictions/Discussion

[adambr2]

9. Brinson - I think his late surge in Colorado Springs coupled with some graduations should push him into the top 10.

 

30. Hader - Hard to predict too much of a jump with his numbers in AAA, but he was better for the Sky Sox than the numbers show.

 

32. Ray - Didn't really do much to improve on his post-draft stock, but he wasn't overwhelmed in Brevard, which was good to see.

 

45. Ortiz - Brought on slowly, but showed in Biloxi why he was targeted in the Lucroy deal.

 

59. Bickford - Should be arguably the most interesting arm to watch in AA next year, in my opinion.

 

76. Woodruff - Surprise! Or is it? This is a massive jump for Brandon, but after completely dominating hitters in Biloxi, how can he be left out?

 

91. Diaz, I - Diaz admittedly is one of my personal favorites, but he's flashed the upside we've hoped for when we traded Segura. After a horrible start, he destroyed the ball most of the rest of the year in Appleton, displaying uncanny power for a middle infielder.

 

98. Clark - Had a so-so season, but unlike Phillips, who I have dropping out, I think Clark's late season improvement and high OBP save his spot in the top 100 for now.

 

 

I realize that these kinds of lists remain fluid in the offseason (fall, winter ball, trades), but with the season winding down and the focus on our farm system I thought it would be fun to start talking about what our 2017 lists might look like.

[MrTPlush]

Pretty much in the general area I would think each prospect will end up at. Only difference is I think Phillips stays on the list somewhere. Yes he had a down season, but scouts love him and so do the people making prospect lists. It also helps he has the big time defense to limit his floor which typically gives you bonus points on a prospect list. I am not sure about Clark. He couldn't even OPS .700 which is a scary thought. He might still be young enough to let that slide another year, but if the power doesn't show up he is going to nose dive as a prospect. I will say Trent Clark has an amazing approach at the plate for someone as young as he is. I think the hit tool will come around, but the big question is the power. With it he could be a really solid outfielder and without it he ends up a tweener type player.

[Noche]

I agree that Phillips should stay on. Anyone who drops him significantly is clearly scouting box scores and is a bad evaluator in my book. Great defense, good walk rate, useable power and speed, and a successful track record make a Phillips an outstanding prospect despite his low batting average this year.

 

Agree with the rest of the list. Woodruff definitely belongs but we will see. Gotta think Lucas Erceg will make the back end of a list or two as well. Maybe Diplan or Peralta too but next year is more likely their year.

[adambr2]

Looking back at the midseason lists I might actually be with you guys on Phillips now...I had thought he was already near the back of the list, but he was still in the 50s and 60s depending on which list you go by.

 

So he may hang around yet, I'd guess low 70s, high 80s, but if Clark isn't penalized out for his year, Phillips probably shouldn't be either at a higher level with good power and decent on-base numbers.

[zjl3]

This is a very good list. I would switch Clark and Diaz because Diaz doesn't have the defensive potential one would hope for. I would also put Brinson around 18th or so because his 77 games at AA were more alarming than his 23 games at AAA were encouraging. Hader also gets put behind Corey Ray. Ray didn't move the needle much, but that is OK, considering that most prospect ranking services already thought highly of Ray in the first place.

[CheezWizHed]

I would also put Brinson around 18th or so because his 77 games at AA were more alarming than his 23 games at AAA were encouraging

 

I would guess most evaluators would play the "injury card" for the 77 games this year. And given that those numbers are out of line with those around them (last year, time at AAA), I probably would too.

[sveumrules]

Just one man's opinion but I posed a similar question during the fangraphs prospect chat with Eric Longenhagen today...

 

Will Brewers helium prospects like Erceg, Woodruff or Isan Diaz make it onto some top 100s this winter? Similarly will guys like Maverick Phillips or Trent Clark who largely underwhelmed fall off?

 

Diaz is a firm "yes", Erceg and Woodruff might get one their. Phillips I've never been that high on while I'm inclined to be patient with Clark despite his struggles.

[Crash2303]

I think its entirely likely that we'll have eight in the Top 100. However, I think Clark and Phillips are dropped. so, I'd guess: Brinson (9), Hader(32), Ortiz (51), Ray (67), Bickford (71), Woodruff (78), Diaz (81), Diplan (89)

[zjl3]

I think the END of Season top 30 Prospect List that we will create soon. should include our prediction for where guys (if applicable) end up in top 100 rankings. We could give our prediction, and then compare it to an average of mlb pipeline/BA to see where guys were close and others were off (which I think could happen if guys overrate Brinson, Woodruff, and Diaz).

 

Or Maybe we could have a separate thread just for top 100 predictions after the AFL.

 

Either way it would be a cool thing to do

[zjl3]

Zonk

2:37

What Farm System, in your mind, had the worst season in terms of failed performances/injuries?

Eric A Longenhagen

2:37

Milwaukee's.

[reillymcshane]

Obviously, Lopez and Nottingham will fall out of Top 100 lists. I wouldn't be surprised if Phillips does - but he's probably a borderline guy. I think that he has enough talent that people will keep him on for another year. Clark could fall out as well, but I don't think so. He's got injuries to blame and people will recognize that.

 

I think Diaz is close to a lock to get in. Woodruff borderline, but I'm inclined to say he'll make it. His season was just too good. Erceg I doubt as people will want a little more track record and at a higher level before they get more excited.

 

A month or two ago, I was thinking Diplan would have a chance to make it, but his stint at Brevard County was mediocre and he'll likely have to wait. I was high on Ponce as well, but he'll collapsed at season's end, dashing any chance of getting noticed.

 

Using MLB Pipeline's rankings, 8-9 guys could exit their list by season's end due to using up their rookie eligibility (Arcia, Swanson, Judge, Reynaldo Lopez, Mondesi, Jake Thompson, Joe Musgrave, Luke Weaver, Clevinger). Of course, any of these guys could get shut down to preserve their rookie eligibility. But it will open up some spots, as will guys getting dropped.

 

In the end, I'm not going to get worked up if guys don't make the list. Those that struggled, I just want to see them regain their stuff and get back on track. But we have to remember that prospects fail more than not, so I don't want to get too freaked out when a guy goes into the dumpster.

[MrTPlush]

Orlando Arcia will actually lose his rookie eligibility and prospect list eligibility with his next at-bat. He has exactly 130 and that is the limit. Interesting little factoid.

[CheezWizHed]

There is probably a bunch of the Top 100 that will lose eligibility to the list. I think that type of movement keeps some of our guys (Phillips) in the top 100. Scouts seem to like his power and ignore his Ks this year. I'd prefer him by a high BA/OBP/good D type player with less power myself.

[Outlander]

He pretty much was that last year with the Astros in AA and even when he came to Biloxi then started to hear how he didn't have enough power. Hopefully he can find a happy medium, I think he barely hangs on to a top 100 spot. I am curious if they do start him again in AA next year or bump him up to AAA. Besides that I agree with adambr2's list.

[MrTPlush]

He pretty much was that last year with the Astros in AA and even when he came to Biloxi then started to hear how he didn't have enough power.

 

He didn't add any power this year though...actually his power was worse. The only real difference he has had is his K rate spiked the second he became a Brewer. The rest of his career he was a decent 20% strikeout guy and now he is near 30%. The other problem this year was the fact his BABIP nose dived from the .380 range to .310.

 

No doubt in my mind he should be sent to AAA. He still had a solid year and has spent enough time at AA.

[MkeSouthSide]

I think the hype on Diaz is getting pretty strong and he will be top 50 on quite a few lists.

[TheCrew07]

Isan Diaz has all of the physical tools to play SS except his arm gets exposed in the 3B hole, his glove is solid, his feet are good, and his range is above average. Over half of his errors were just silly/stupid decisions like flips behind his back that missed 2B by 10 feet and stuff like that, his error total is not representative of his fielding skill. I never watched him on the DVR (just live) to see if it was something mechanical rather than arm strength, but his throws were fairly loopy when he was moving away from 1B towards the 3B line. I think his bat will get him on the list, but his position with a MLB club will likely be 2B, and there just aren't many 2B who are actually legit prospects. Weeks obviously scored high on prospect lists during his time so I don't think it keeps him off the lists, but it will be interesting to see what people have to say about him, and where he ultimately slots

 

It was a smallish sample, but one thing I noticed is that when he slumps, he slumps hard with the bat, and it's an extended period of time, just like his hot streaks are. Some guys will go 1 for 10 and then get back on track, Isan rode tremendous peaks and valleys 2016. He was extremely hot to start the season, then cooled off by mid April and that lasted until around June 8th, then he was white hot all the way through until mid August when he started to slide again and finished on another cold streak. You would hope he smooths that out ride out in a positive manner as he progresses.

[MKE81]

I think Brinson, Hader, Ray, Diaz (top 50), Ortiz, Bickford, Phillips, Clark are locks to make it (and I'd put them in that order). Woodruff - wouldn't be surprised if he made it or didn't make it due to age level for competition. He was outstanding this year, dominated AA in 14 of his 20 starts and his talent deserves to crack the list but I think age holds him back if he doesn't given he's 24 at start of next year and could be starting in AA for 6wks before jumping to AAA (could also see him starting in AAA). If Diplan has a first half at A+ like he did this year in A then I think he'll crack the mid-season list. Same with Nottingham if he gets back on track to how he performed in A/A+ but he might need a full season at AA to grab that Top 100 spot. Erceg I think needs a full season still unless he goes gangbusters in first half then could hit mid-season list.

[adambr2]

Diaz in the top 50? I love the guy, but that seems overly optimistic to me. That would be great, though. I suppose his preseason value is still TBD depending on how he does in the Fall league.

[Greenleaf1]

I don't have the slightest idea how to guess who will be in the top 100, since I definitely don't have much of an idea of other teams' systems unless they were trade partners with the Brewers over the last year.

 

Based on previous rankings, performance in 2016, and just general talent/potential levels, I would think Brinson/Hader/Ray/Ortiz/Bickford are all absolute locks for the list.

 

Beyond that, I would think Diaz creeps in there, with potential to get up really high on the list if he can continue to rake at A+ next year.

 

I think it would be hard for Woodruff to go from our midseason 26th prospect to making the overall top 100. He seems very impressive to me, but I just get the sense that he isn't as loved outside of Milwaukee. I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

 

I'm guessing Clark stays on the list, Phillips seems like he'd be on the cusp of the list, he didn't really do that much to help or hurt his cause this year (traded average for power, not sure which is more valued for lists like this).

 

Diplan needs more than 1/2 a great season to make this list I would think.

 

 

Brewers top 10 probably looking something like:

1. Brinson

2. Hader

3. Ray

4. Ortiz

5. Bickford

6. Diaz

7. Clark

8. Phillips

9. Woodruff

10. Diplan

 

If we still had 8 on the top 100 list next year that'd be amazing but I'd be a little surprised, I'm guessing we're at 6 or 7.

[adambr2]

I have a hard time seeing Diplan making it. I think he was on track to but then someone struggled at Brevard, which I think will keep him out. I think he's probably a borderline top 150 guy.

 

Good thing is the K rate was still up there in Brevard and a strong start next season should put him in midseason consideration.

[CheezWizHed]

If Isan has a nice AFL, I'd be surprised that he isn't on the top 100. Hader did the same last year. Bats like Isan aren't common. And I don't think that playing 2B holds him back. Its rare to have a 2B on the top 100, but mainly because its rare to having someone with that talented at hitting as Isan or Weeks.

[MKE81]

Diaz in the top 50? I love the guy, but that seems overly optimistic to me. That would be great, though. I suppose his preseason value is still TBD depending on how he does in the Fall league.

He struggled his first couple months at the age of 19. Final 3 months of the season he hit the ball like a Top 20. At 20 he absolutely owned A ball and he's a lefty playing SS (although he will end up at 2b). But as long as he's listed as a SS/2b (had 2x as many innings at SS than 2b) he should have a spot on the list that reflects that. I think Top 50 assuming he's strong in the AFL. If he stumbles then I see him Top 75 between Bickford/Phillips on the list.

[MkeSouthSide]

Keith Law touched on some Brewer prospects in his chat today:

 

Ben: It seems like the latest prospect fetish out there is Isan Diaz of the Brewers. What’s your take on him?

Klaw: Fetish is an … interesting word for it. He’s a future star, though. Segura trade looked bad the day the Dbacks made it, and it looks bad now even with Segura’s good season.

 

Scarlet: Please rank these young pups: isan diaz- juan soto – ronald acuna…offensive potential only

Klaw: Diaz, Acuna, Soto.

 

Troy: Keith – Still high on Brewers Corey Ray even after kind of a down pro debut?

Klaw: Yes. I thought the assignment to high-A was too aggressive. Granted, I wish he’d performed better, and the swing-and-miss issue was a concern this spring too.

 

Anonymous: What happened to Dillon Tate this year? Looking back, what did you think of trading him for a rental piece this year?

Klaw: Velocity dropped off after the DL stint in April and never really came back. I don’t blame the Rangers for trading him. They nearly took Trent Clark with that pick until Tate agreed to sign, and in hindsight that would have been the better pick.

 

Anonymous: Keith – what are your thoughts on the Brewers Lucas Erceg? I’m excited to see him progress and eventually take over at 3B in their rebuild

Klaw: Big tools with an idea of how to hit, may be more of a RF than a 3B, and of course he needs to stay out of trouble off the field.

[MrTPlush]

Watch Isan Diaz in person. Defensively and offensively he dominated Single-A. He already looks like an MLB player the way he plays. Can't imagine how he is going to look in a few years with more maturing and experience.

 

Reminds me a lot of Orlando Arcia when he was back in Single-A you could just see the potential and could tell he was about to break out. Though I guess Diaz already sort of did that this year.