Stearns's First Season: 2016 MLB Transactions Review

[brewerfan82]

Seriously? Davis has 37 HR and 90 RBI, both would lead the Brewers. I was upset with the deal when it happened and I still am. I said at the time they were trading a 40 HR bat (which a lot of people disputed) with control through 2019 for no major league talent in return and that unless Nottingham were the real deal, they got robbed. Davis has some flaws, but he's a now a proven premier power bat as opposed to last winter when he his status was as an emerging power bat with potential to be a premier one.

 

Proven premier controllable power bats in their prime are a lot more valuable than a decent but no sure thing catching prospect and a B-C type lower level arm.

See Chris Carter. Controllable proven premier power bat dropped by the Astros for nothing, signed to a $2.5m contract. He's Davis, but one year in the future. Not saying they're not nice pieces to have on your team, but they're nothing to get worked up about either.

[jerichoholicninja]

I find it hard to second guess the Davis deal. At the time Nottingham was seen as a pretty good prospect and few of us were upset with the deal. Davis has a 1.6 WAR compared to 1.4 last season, making him marginally more valuable in 2016 than Kirk Nieuwenhuis has been.

 

I find it hard to believe that the marginal improvement this year from Davis combined with the less control he'd have going into this offseason makes his value anything more than very slightly more than what Nottingham and Derby were worth at the time.

 

If there's a GM out there willing to overpay to a big extent based solely on power and nothing else, we need to introduce him to Chris Carter at the winter meetings.

 

Seriously? Davis has 37 HR and 90 RBI, both would lead the Brewers. I was upset with the deal when it happened and I still am. I said at the time they were trading a 40 HR bat (which a lot of people disputed) with control through 2019 for no major league talent in return and that unless Nottingham were the real deal, they got robbed. Davis has some flaws, but he's a now a proven premier power bat as opposed to last winter when he his status was as an emerging power bat with potential to be a premier one.

 

Proven premier controllable power bats in their prime are a lot more valuable than a decent but no sure thing catching prospect and a B-C type lower level arm.

 

The dead horse called. It wants you to stop beating it.

[adambr2]

The A's may very well trade Davis this offseason, so for once we may actually get an answer to our hypothetical question.

 

Interesting to see Davis actually has a lower OPS+ (118 vs. 123 last year). I'm not saying he's a bad player, but I just don't see how anyone can conclude his value has risen significantly in the last year. Segura, yes. Davis, no. I don't think you can fool GM's with old school statistics anymore, GMs have more data and are more in times than decades ago.

[logan82]

His WRC+ would have been 4th best on the team this year and his wOBA would have been 6th best. Just ahead of Aaron Hill. If you look past meaningless counting stats he doesn't look great as a hitter.

[FVBrewerFan]

Or, put another way, Davis would have been exactly the type of player the Brewers would have loved the past 30 years. Thankfully, a new era has begun. Now true talent is sought after and trivial things like HR, RBI, and obsession with LH power bat are marginalized.

[Ennder]

Lets be realistic here, Davis has been a roughly league average player this season and is getting payed peanuts, we almost certainly lost value in this trade. A league average player is worth roughly $15M a year right now and he got payed under $1M so Oakland theoretically gained $14M in value on him this year. Now to be honest some of that is given back by the fact they aren't making the playoffs but there is almost no scenario where the A's didn't get a huge win by having him on the roster. If we knew he was going to repeat last year even with a hit on walks we would not have traded him for what we got. We obviously didn't know he could repeat so we added some regression into our offer.

[MrTPlush]

Please baby Jesus can people stop comparing Davis to Carter. BAD comparison. First off Davis' production as an OFer is a lot better than producing it as a 1B, Davis is dependable to hold an average near .250, Carter strikes out A LOT, Carter has atrocious defense while outside of his arm Davis is decent, Carter is lucky to have an average of .225, and Davis has better power stats.

 

The real deal breaker for Chris Carter is his horrid career .219 BA and his yearly 200 SOs. Khris Davis keeps his strikeouts low enough and his average high enough to avoid the "all or nothing" label.

[Greenleaf1]

About Chris Carter, to quote Moneyball: he gets on base, do I care if it's a walk or a hit?

 

I do not.

 

2016 Chris Carter OPS: .814

2016 Khris Davis OPS: .816

 

LF/DH and 1B have pretty similar profiles. Offense first players that provide power. It's a very apt comparison.

[stoutdude04]

Please baby Jesus can people stop comparing Davis to Carter. BAD comparison. First off Davis' production as an OFer is a lot better than producing it as a 1B, Davis is dependable to hold an average near .250, Carter strikes out A LOT, Carter has atrocious defense while outside of his arm Davis is decent, Carter is lucky to have an average of .225, and Davis has better power stats.

 

The real deal breaker for Chris Carter is his horrid career .219 BA and his yearly 200 SOs. Khris Davis keeps his strikeouts low enough and his average high enough to avoid the "all or nothing" label.

 

I think the comparison is fine. They have a similar number of PA/AB. Carter has K'd about 30 more times in about 20 more at bats, but he also has a 325 OBP compared to Davis 301. An out is an out in my opinion and I dont much care how he gets on. Base runners are base runners.

[Roderick]

 

I think the comparison is fine. They have a similar number of PA/AB. Carter has K'd about 30 more times in about 20 more at bats, but he also has a 325 OBP compared to Davis 301. An out is an out in my opinion and I dont much care how he gets on. Base runners are base runners.

 

I guess I don't get too riled up about strikeouts.

 

Is a player better if he gets conservative with 2 strikes and grounds out instead? Not if there is someone on first.

[stoutdude04]

 

I think the comparison is fine. They have a similar number of PA/AB. Carter has K'd about 30 more times in about 20 more at bats, but he also has a 325 OBP compared to Davis 301. An out is an out in my opinion and I dont much care how he gets on. Base runners are base runners.

 

I guess I don't get too riled up about strikeouts.

 

Is a player better if he gets conservative with 2 strikes and grounds out instead? Not if there is someone on first.

 

Same. Just for some fun with numbers -

 

This years team has 1382 strikeouts thus far compared to 1299 last year.

This years team has 555 walks with a 325 OBP thus far compared to 412 and 307 last year.

We may strikeout more, but we get on base at a better clip. That seems like a fine trade off to me.

[MrTPlush]

 

I think the comparison is fine. They have a similar number of PA/AB. Carter has K'd about 30 more times in about 20 more at bats, but he also has a 325 OBP compared to Davis 301. An out is an out in my opinion and I dont much care how he gets on. Base runners are base runners.

 

I guess I don't get too riled up about strikeouts.

 

Is a player better if he gets conservative with 2 strikes and grounds out instead? Not if there is someone on first.

 

So let's take an example I have seen our players do all year. Chris Carter doing what feels like on a weekly basis:

 

Chris Carter walks up to the plate with a man on third just one out....annnnnnnnd strikeout. Whoops wish he could have grounded out or hit a fly ball to score a run. Instead scoreless inning in the end.

 

I know people in the game threads hate when we try to play small ball getting a guy over to third with one out. They say it never works for us this year. Reason being is because this team strikes out so much no one ever actually puts the ball in play.

 

An out is not just an out. Base runners are not just base runners. Such comments make me want to cringe. They are all not created equal.

[stoutdude04]

 

I think the comparison is fine. They have a similar number of PA/AB. Carter has K'd about 30 more times in about 20 more at bats, but he also has a 325 OBP compared to Davis 301. An out is an out in my opinion and I dont much care how he gets on. Base runners are base runners.

 

I guess I don't get too riled up about strikeouts.

 

Is a player better if he gets conservative with 2 strikes and grounds out instead? Not if there is someone on first.

 

So let's take an example I have seen our players do all year. Chris Carter doing what feels like on a weekly basis:

 

Chris Carter walks up to the plate with a man on third just one out....annnnnnnnd strikeout. Whoops wish he could have grounded out or hit a fly ball to score a run. Instead scoreless inning in the end.

 

I know people in the game threads hate when we try to play small ball getting a guy over to third with one out. They say it never works for us this year. Reason being is because this team strikes out so much no one ever actually puts the ball in play.

 

An out is not just an out. Base runners are not just base runners. Such comments make me want to cringe. They are all not created equal.

 

We can do what ifs all we want. Maybe that ground ball is hit right to the 3rd baseman or that fly ball isnt deep enough.

 

A guy either makes an out or gets on base. So, to me...an out is an out. Ill take the guy that gets on base most often, but thats just me.

 

EDIT: I was curious so I went to check out CC and KD with runners on 3rd less than 2 out and Davis has done a great job in this department. I also believe there is a thing as being clutch, so perhaps KD does better in those spots for that reason, or maybe it is just a super small sample size.

[pacopete4]

I'll take Chris Carter playing 1B over Khris Davis playing LF any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Same goes for having them bat in our lineup. And I'm not huge Chris Carter fan by any means. Davis was/is frustrating to watch on so many levels. Glad he's having "success" in Oakland and wish him the best but glad he's no where near our lineup anymore.

[adambr2]

I think it's been pretty much statistically proven that strikeouts are, if at all, only very slightly worse than any other out, on the average. 'Productive' outs as I recall are almost completely cancelled out by double plays. Sounds like my research project for today.

[Baldkin]

 

I think the comparison is fine. They have a similar number of PA/AB. Carter has K'd about 30 more times in about 20 more at bats, but he also has a 325 OBP compared to Davis 301. An out is an out in my opinion and I dont much care how he gets on. Base runners are base runners.

 

I guess I don't get too riled up about strikeouts.

 

Is a player better if he gets conservative with 2 strikes and grounds out instead? Not if there is someone on first.

 

So let's take an example I have seen our players do all year. Chris Carter doing what feels like on a weekly basis:

 

Chris Carter walks up to the plate with a man on third just one out....annnnnnnnd strikeout. Whoops wish he could have grounded out or hit a fly ball to score a run. Instead scoreless inning in the end.

 

I know people in the game threads hate when we try to play small ball getting a guy over to third with one out. They say it never works for us this year. Reason being is because this team strikes out so much no one ever actually puts the ball in play.

 

An out is not just an out. Base runners are not just base runners. Such comments make me want to cringe. They are all not created equal.

 

Chris Carter comes up with no one on base and just one out.....annnnnnnnd hits a home run. Whoops wish he could have grouned out or hit a fly ball to make an out. Instead, we scored that inning.

 

These guys are not baseball playing robots who can be reprogrammed and change their swing, stance and ability level depending on the given game situation. The pitchers are just too good.

[adambr2]

 

I think the comparison is fine. They have a similar number of PA/AB. Carter has K'd about 30 more times in about 20 more at bats, but he also has a 325 OBP compared to Davis 301. An out is an out in my opinion and I dont much care how he gets on. Base runners are base runners.

 

I guess I don't get too riled up about strikeouts.

 

Is a player better if he gets conservative with 2 strikes and grounds out instead? Not if there is someone on first.

 

So let's take an example I have seen our players do all year. Chris Carter doing what feels like on a weekly basis:

 

Chris Carter walks up to the plate with a man on third just one out....annnnnnnnd strikeout. Whoops wish he could have grounded out or hit a fly ball to score a run. Instead scoreless inning in the end.

 

I know people in the game threads hate when we try to play small ball getting a guy over to third with one out. They say it never works for us this year. Reason being is because this team strikes out so much no one ever actually puts the ball in play.

 

An out is not just an out. Base runners are not just base runners. Such comments make me want to cringe. They are all not created equal.

 

Or another example, Ryan Braun comes up with 1 out and the bases loaded, and in scenario 1 he strikes out, and then Perez hits a grand slam. In scenario 2, he grounds into a double play and no batter comes up after.

 

Obviously that's the most extreme example, but there are plenty of examples in between of instances where outs in play aren't better, and there's plenty of outs in play with runners on that aren't even productive.

 

Statistically there's little better/worse between a strikeout and out in play.

[Eye Black]

VIDEO LINK: In yesterday's post-game press conference Joe Maddon had some nice comments about David Stearns roster construction starting at the 0:35 mark of the linked video.

[stoutdude04]

I always like Maddon. I agree with him too.

[MrTPlush]

It seems you all missed the point of my post and instead took it as some knock on Carter when it was an example. I said all outs are not created equal nor are baserunners all created equal. Most of you unknowingly provided more examples proving this point.

[JohnBriggs12]

Khris Davis, the guy Stearns traded for a class A pitcher who posted an ERA of nearly 6 and a AA catcher who posted a .641 OPS, hit his 40th HR today. Just saying.

[stoutdude04]

Khris Davis, the guy Stearns traded for a class A pitcher who posted an ERA of nearly 6 and a AA catcher who posted a .641 OPS, hit his 40th HR today. Just saying.

 

He is good at hitting home runs. We know that.

 

Do you acknowledge his short comings ever? I'm notnsure I've ever seen it.

[stoutdude04]

It seems you all missed the point of my post and instead took it as some knock on Carter when it was an example. I said all outs are not created equal nor are baserunners all created equal. Most of you unknowingly provided more examples proving this point.

 

I didn't think you were knocking Carter. I just think the difference between a strikeout and any other out is minimal. Imo outs are outs.

[jerichoholicninja]

Khris Davis, the guy Stearns traded for a class A pitcher who posted an ERA of nearly 6 and a AA catcher who posted a .641 OPS, hit his 40th HR today. Just saying.

 

He is good at hitting home runs. We know that.

 

Do you acknowledge his short comings ever? I'm notnsure I've ever seen it.

 

What shortcomings? Look at all the RBI's!!!

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think the Khris Davis trade was a very small part of judging Stearn's first year, and continuing to focus on that very small aspect is losing sight of the goal of what is trying to be accomplished. Not all trades work out. Not all prospects pan out.

 

Conversely, not all prospects who have bad years are flame outs. It's abundantly clear at this point that Khris Davis is having a nice year. For the Brewers, it's possible he would have been the difference between 72 and 74 wins, at best.