Stearns's First Season: 2016 MLB Transactions Review

[MKE81]

I'm not really impressed that he got such an improvement in the farm system. He inherited great/controllable players to trade and high draft picks on top of much of that improvement already in place. I could have done that and anyone on this forum could have done it. What matters is if the guys he acquired actually end up good.

 

However moves like Villar/Guerra pat on the back. Those are Stearns defining moves. Not trading Lucroy/Jeffress/Smith for good players or drafting a good player #5

You can't be serious. Just stop. There's only 30 jobs in the entire world for what Stearns does so Joe Brewerfan.net can't do what Stearns has done and never will be able to.

 

Additionally, labeling the Davis trade a failure after one season is also absurd. Scouts said the same thing about Nottingham as they have about Hader, Bickford, Kodi and so on and so forth. "They might stick but might not". Nottingham is 21 in AA. He'll make improvements next year on both sides of the plate and after 2 full seasons it'll be much more clear than it is now. It's premature to label that a failure. Derby might end up in the pen too. And I know a lot of people on here say the value drops when moved to the pen but last I checked we netted Ortiz, Bickford, Susac (and part or all of Cordell?) using 2 pen arms, in which one wasn't even a closer and the other had half a season as closer and didn't dominate.

 

Finally, regarding Davis having "much more value" as some have said, no he doesn't. Again, as I've stated before, in 2013/2015/2016 he's had very similar HR and RBI numbers per AB. The ONLY reason he's approaching 40HR/100RBI is because he's getting enough ABs to do so. Davis has played fewer games in the field this year than in his career. As he gets a little older he'll strictly be a DH. So, no, his value hasn't increased especially since his production ratios have been almost identical over his career while playing only half the season in the field, committing more errors this year then previously and getting on base less with a similar K rate as last year. In what category has he improved?

 

I find it odd that people label Davis as a good fielder but he just has a terrible arm then turn around and criticize Braun as being below average in the field when his career fielding percentage is almost 20pts higher than what Davis has done the past 2yrs while also possessing a strong, very accurate arm.

 

Stearns is a beast. Outstanding first year across the board.

[MrTPlush]

Additionally, labeling the Davis trade a failure after one season is also absurd.

 

Stearns is a beast. Outstanding first year across the board.

 

So it's absurd to say the Davis trade looks pretty bad or pretty questionable after one season, but you can call Stearns a "beast" and say he had an "outstanding year" before a bunch of guys even play a game at the MLB level?

 

Alright then.

[pacopete4]

Additionally, labeling the Davis trade a failure after one season is also absurd.

 

Stearns is a beast. Outstanding first year across the board.

 

So it's absurd to say the Davis trade looks pretty bad or pretty questionable after one season, but you can call Stearns a "beast" and say he had an "outstanding year" before a bunch of guys even play a game at the MLB level?

 

Alright then.

 

 

I think your both being absurd. Does that help?

[MrTPlush]

While I do agree with MrTPlush to some extent, I'm not sure that you could be anything but impressed with the job not only Stearns has done.

 

I am very happy with his job overall, but the fact he traded a bunch of highly valuable players he inherited for good prospects is not something I find particularly out of the ordinary. Outside of the Rogers/Broxton trade most were fair returns, but nothing great.

 

There are a ton of things I personally really liked:

 

1. Acquiring Jonathan Villar

He saw a player from his old organization that he knew they undervalued and wouldn't mind getting rid of. His best move of the year by far. Exactly the kind of thing you want to see.

 

2. Claiming Junior Guerra

Nothing like the Doug Melvin special. Dumpster diving at it's finest

 

3. Trading Jason Rogers

Even if Broxton totally flops I love this move. He took a player with inflated value that had a low ceiling and just didn't fit. He wasn't really worth keeping around through the rebuild and sold high for a promising young player.

 

4. Trading Jeffress/Smith

Two players with a lot of control and they are cheap which is not something you typically look to trade away. However bullpen arms had big time value at the deadline and Stearns wasn't afraid to trade not only one but two.

 

5. Seriously considering trading Ryan Braun

A great sign he is looking to make this team young and competitive for the long term. A gutsy move, but a great sign to see out of the man in charge. Could blow up in his face, but you don't win championships without taking risks.

[MrTPlush]

Additionally, labeling the Davis trade a failure after one season is also absurd.

 

Stearns is a beast. Outstanding first year across the board.

 

So it's absurd to say the Davis trade looks pretty bad or pretty questionable after one season, but you can call Stearns a "beast" and say he had an "outstanding year" before a bunch of guys even play a game at the MLB level?

 

Alright then.

 

 

I think your both being absurd. Does that help?

 

That is fair

[FVBrewerFan]

He also has one draft under his belt. Yea, I know he isn't directly involved with that. But he is the GM, and the buck stops there right?

 

Way too early to tell on that as well, but at least early returns on Ray and Erceg look encouraging, as well as a few others.

 

As for Davis, good for him. He's hitting a bunch of HR again. That is valuable, and I don't agree with people who just dismiss 40 HR as nothing. But they needed Santana to play every day, obviously he got injured but you can't foresee that. Nottingham could be a bust, a mediocre catcher who can really hit, or a multiple All-Star at 1B. We have no idea, still way too young.

 

Heck, we went through that with Davis. Nothing prospect, then huge A year, struggled and we gave up on him, then found his power stroke again. So we have no idea what Nottingham will become.

[logan82]

Sub .300 OBP severely cuts into the value of 40 HR, which he hasn't reached yet. He is also 28 so how many good years will he really have?

 

Edit: I forgot how old Davis is already.

[MadScientist]

Minor note for the full list of Stern's transactions, Walsh was a rule 5 pick, not a waiver claim.

 

Stearns has had good results with a number of minor transactions. Things like that can really make a difference down the road. The key will be the results of the bigger trades, and we won't know that for a few years.

 

Beyond acquiring talent, the key is developing it. A number of prospects seemed to stall this year after a good season last year, and not too many had breakout years. Will this lead to changes for the minor league player development personnel?

[And That]

Will this lead to changes for the minor league player development personnel?

I believe it is safe to say that there will be a fair amount of turnover on the player development side. There were some changes Stearns/Arnold knew they had to soon after they got here (Reid Nichols, buh-bye), but there are other things I think that they needed time to see shake out. Now that they've had a year to see how everyone works and works together, there will be some more-than modest changes up and down the amateur side of the organization. This includes scouting in addition to the development staff.

[FVBrewerFan]

Beyond acquiring talent, the key is developing it. A number of prospects seemed to stall this year after a good season last year, and not too many had breakout years. Will this lead to changes for the minor league player development personnel?

 

Part of that is due to some aggressive placements. Another part is due to having two parks not very conducive to developing players. Those are not excuses, it's reality.

 

With that said, in no way does that explain away all the regression. I was hoping Stearns would have made sweeping changes in player development his 2nd day of work, but I'm hoping it gets addressed this off-season in a major way.

 

Also, I hope they ease up on the aggressive placements this year. They went that route last year and results were not good. That doesn't mean you can't push anyone, just be a lot more selective.

[1992casey]

Minor note for the full list of Stern's transactions, Walsh was a rule 5 pick, not a waiver claim.

 

That raised my eyebrows too. But when I checked the mlb.com transactions pages that TooLive linked to, the Rule 5 picks were listed as waiver claims.

[RobertR]

I disagree strongly that the Carter signing means anything in regards to Lind's return. The alternative wasn't "don't trade Lind" but rather trade Lind for different prospects. The Carter signing was a clear win but it doesn't mean the Lind deal was good. Signing Carter AND getting good prospects back was the goal.

[igor67]

Actually its pretty hard to imagine there is any job outside of individual timed sports (i.e. track) that 30 people are specially qualified for and no one else is capable of. That's not how a bell curve works. There are so many factors not related to ones ability to evaluate baseball talent that keep people from ever being considered for a GM position. Rhetoric aside the original point was a solid one, its not terribly difficult to sit down with a few prospect publications answer phone calls and trade veterans. Any measurable skill that exists there is in figuring out which players to pick out of prospects of a certain caliber, which as Mr. Plush pointed out we won't know for some time yet. I'm certainly not saying Stearns has done anything other then a very good job from what I can tell, but collecting a bunch of prospects for veterans in and of itself is not hard. When it comes to actually judging moves in hindsight, I also think we over attribute too much to the skill of the evaluator and not enough to the unpredictability of development.

[TooLiveBrew]

Minor note for the full list of Stern's transactions, Walsh was a rule 5 pick, not a waiver claim.

I edited in a note to clarify on this & also Zack Jones. Not sure why MLB.com would list it as a waiver claim.

 

Thanks TooLiveBrew for the work you put into the transaction list. Wonderful reference as a recap of Stearns' first year.

 

Minor note...Tyler Wagner was included in the Segura trade. Maybe should also include that Jed Bradley was sold to the Braves.

Thanks -- I'm glad people are discussing!

 

Big whiff from me on Wagner (edited in now). Thanks for the catch. I'm going to leave Bradley off the list.

[jerichoholicninja]

Wasn't one of Jones or Walsh technically a trade with the team that selected him in the rule 5 since I don't think teams are able to pick two players in the Rule 5 draft.

[1992casey]

I believe a team can select as many players as it wants, i.e. the rounds continue until teams stop drafting. The limitations would be practical ones. Teams aren't going to want a lot of players under Rule 5 restrictions. Plus, there wouldn't be enough talent in the pool for teams to draft a bunch of players.

[And That]

Teams may pick as many Rule 5 players as they have open 40-man roster spots. 40-man rosters have to be set 2 days before the Rule 5 draft, i.e. no one can be outrighted in the two days before the draft.

[JohnBriggs12]

I find it hard to second guess the Davis deal. At the time Nottingham was seen as a pretty good prospect and few of us were upset with the deal. Davis has a 1.6 WAR compared to 1.4 last season, making him marginally more valuable in 2016 than Kirk Nieuwenhuis has been.

 

I find it hard to believe that the marginal improvement this year from Davis combined with the less control he'd have going into this offseason makes his value anything more than very slightly more than what Nottingham and Derby were worth at the time.

 

If there's a GM out there willing to overpay to a big extent based solely on power and nothing else, we need to introduce him to Chris Carter at the winter meetings.

 

Seriously? Davis has 37 HR and 90 RBI, both would lead the Brewers. I was upset with the deal when it happened and I still am. I said at the time they were trading a 40 HR bat (which a lot of people disputed) with control through 2019 for no major league talent in return and that unless Nottingham were the real deal, they got robbed. Davis has some flaws, but he's a now a proven premier power bat as opposed to last winter when he his status was as an emerging power bat with potential to be a premier one.

 

Proven premier controllable power bats in their prime are a lot more valuable than a decent but no sure thing catching prospect and a B-C type lower level arm.

[pacopete4]

 

Seriously? Davis has 37 HR and 90 RBI, both would lead the Brewers. I was upset with the deal when it happened and I still am. I said at the time they were trading a 40 HR bat (which a lot of people disputed) with control through 2019 for no major league talent in return and that unless Nottingham were the real deal, they got robbed. Davis has some flaws, but he's a now a proven premier power bat as opposed to last winter when he his status was as an emerging power bat with potential to be a premier one.

 

Proven premier controllable power bats in their prime are a lot more valuable than a decent but no sure thing catching prospect and a B-C type lower level arm.

 

 

Davis would be worth what you say he is if he was any good in the field and/or got on base at a reasonable clip. Until he can do that, and at his age it's probably not changing, he isn't worth all that much. Nottingham is a nice return piece for him and if you want to gauge a player poorly, who is very young for the level he is at, then go ahead. But you are in the very small minority on a player like Davis.

[pogokat]

neverendingly bringing up Khris davis is super annoying.

[MrTPlush]

David Stearns' grade on the Khris Davis trade really hinges on Nottingham staying at catcher. He trusted the scouts and if they were wrong the grade on that trade will not be very good. Unless his bat really just explodes and he can have the offense for 1B...doubtful though.

[TheCrew07]

I get that you're going to keep this beating drum JB12, but I find this Davis issue very similar to the people who insisted Fielder's defensive issues didn't matter because his offense was *that* good, which was possibly true every other year, though I didn't buy it.

 

This is a tangent, but I've always wondered why 1B defense is overlooked, that's the one defensive position that has the ability to make everyone else around him better, turning errors into outs or at least saving an extra base. I understand that you don't need a great athlete at the position, but it's the linchpin of the entire IF defense.

 

Getting back on track even though literally everyone who has replied to your posts has pointed this out, but Davis is in fact a 1 trick pony. I'm not a big Nottingham fan, and I'm willing to concede that the Brewers could have done better trading away Davis, but I don't have a problem with Brewers moving Davis at all. He was a DH playing in a league that doesn't have a DH, and didn't have a need for his services with Santana moving to RF. Of course Santana got hurt which opened up the door for you to continually beat on the Davis issue all year, but it would not have made sense to sit Santana for Davis.

 

I will say though that you're completely unwilling to back away from your "must win now" mantra, you've even posted in the transaction forum about acquiring an aging McCann to catch for the Brewers next season. I don't expect everyone to be on board with the rebuild, lord knows many of the people in my immediate circle are not, but even if the Brewers were competing why would the Brewers want to acquire any players over 30 years old to play a significant role with the team? Especially a catcher? I have a very difficult time believing that the folly of counting on players to produce into their mid 30s isn't blatantly obvious by now?

 

Trades for veteran players and FA should be a tool used sparingly, even if the team can afford the contract it just doesn't make good sense to pay a player for what they've already done, rather than what they are going to do. Professional franchises need to pick their spots and make those moves when the opportunity outweighs the total cost (not just dollars). I hear the same arguments from Packer fans all the time... "we like winning but it sure would be nice if Thompson would "go for it" once in a while". The issue of course is that if you "go for it", then you aren't going to keep winning, because you become top heavy with a maxed out payroll as players start declining from a production standpoint, and no team in any sport drafts so perfectly that they never miss and always have talent to spare. The simple truth is there isn't a Charles Woodson or Ryan Pickett move out there every off season. However the Packers haven't lost in the playoffs because of the talent, they've lost because of terrible decisions made by players and coaches in the moment, and also health. Health is the one part of sports that is truly random, there's just no way of knowing which players you are going to lose in a given season, and sometimes the players are irreplaceable, that's no different than baseball, and that's why have a robust talent base to draw from is so important.

 

Melvin made a "go for it" trade every year starting with Linebrink, how did that ultimately work out? The key to winning is having dynamic athletes who can produce, and a diversity of skills. The Brewers don't need to hit 180 HRs if they get on base and play better defense with better pitching. There's always more than one way to get home. Melvin and Jack Z favored power, everything else be damned, so the Brewers needed to hit HRs to score runs, this version doesn't need Davis' total package.

 

Davis is actually in a much better situation being in the AL where he can DH and his OF defense doesn't hurt the team, there wasn't room for Davis and Santana in the same OF (and no playing Santana in CF again would have been a terrible idea), so other than the return of the trade, there isn't much to complain about, but you've proven completely unwilling to concede even the most of minor of points when it comes to Kris.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7X2_V60YK8

[MillerParkSouth]

Davis has 37 HR and 90 RBI, both would lead the Brewers.

Those numbers don't mean as much as you think they do considering he has a sub .300 OBP.

[sveumrules]

Something else to consider in regards to Davis (& all batting numbers this year) is that league wide slugging is at peak steroid era levels currently. League average ISO is at .167 this year after .153 last year and .138 in 2013. The last time league wide ISO was this high was 1999, 2000 & 2001 when it hit .167, .171, & .167.

 

That's one reason why despite Davis being a "40 HR guy" and going to a tougher league and much tougher park that his wRC+ has actually declined from last year, 121 in 2015 to 116 in 2016. Though obviously the walk rate falling from 10% to 5.5% hurts too.

[FVBrewerFan]

Well, I still plead for patience with Nottingham. He actually had 3 really good months this season at the plate, cancelled out by 2 horrible months. But the guy was THREE years younger than average AA player. Also struggled defensively, and as a catcher especially I think offense/defense are related when you're struggling.

 

I'm not ready to give up on him as a hitter or a catcher. Let's just pump the brakes a little and see how he does next year when he repeats AA.