Arcia's trade value

[adambr2]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/09/heymans-latest-white-sox-marlins-brewers-yankees-gurriel-saunders.html

 

Interesting to see that Villar's breakout season has left other clubs wondering if we would be willing to deal Arcia. According to the link we are not entertaining such offers, which knowing Stearns I'm guessing is simply code for 'We're not actively looking to do that, we value this guy a ton, so you'll have to blow me away.'

 

Would this be an avenue that should be considered? I don't blame Stearns for not wanting to pursue it, I don't want to trade Arcia either. At the same time, should an elite pitching prospect be involved in the discussion. ...it would be impossible not to listen. Starting pitching has long been our Achilles heel, and top pitching prospects aren't easy to come by. Of course, elite SS prospects don't grow on trees, either.

[MrTPlush]

Won't even waste my time thinking about what he is worth because the Brewers would never consider it. Unless of course the return was absolutely ridiculous. The Brewers aren't going to be more likely to trade Arcia because Villar has a great season. They have to chance to have a super star at the most premium position. That is simply not the kind of player/prospect you trade away in a position like ours. They can slide Villar over to 2B it isn't like we don't have room for him.

[Greenleaf1]

I can't even imagine a situation where we could be blown away enough to trade Arcia.

 

Now is the time in the rebuild where we want to start locking in players for the future. Arcia's up and performing well at a very tough position to fill with quality players, and the fact that we have Villar to play somewhere else for now, or step in at SS if Arcia gets injured is too great a gift to give up.

 

If in a year or two, we have another great SS prospect coming up and we have a great need elsewhere and we're about ready to compete, I could see us being motivated enough to accept a (still overwhelming) offer for Arcia, but now is not the time to do that.

[splitterpfj]

I don't blame teams for asking, but I'd guess Villar's breakout season will make Villar a trade candidate, if the Brewers decide to part with either player.

[MadThinker88]

I don't blame teams for asking, but I'd guess Villar's breakout season will make Villar a trade candidate, if the Brewers decide to part with either player.

 

Still think Villar should be kept over Scooter...

Of the 3, trade/ jettison Scooter

[trwi7]

Gennett is more likely a non-tender candidate than a trade candidate. Villar is a pretty terrible defender at SS, might be at 3B too. He's certainly not someone you willingly move to the most important defensive position on the diamond.

 

I'd definitely move Villar over Arcia and I'd shop Villar pretty aggressively this offseason. Unless he can keep a .400 BABIP year after year, which seems highly unlikely, he's going to regress.

[MrTPlush]

Jonathan Villar is not a terrible defender at SS...well maybe if all you look at is errors at which point I guess any argument is a lost cause. Villar has a very strong arm and has great range. At worst he is a slightly below average defender at SS. His Range Factor is Top 3 in the NL, but has the most errors. In my opinion they cancel each other out for the most part. If anything I would prefer a guy having lots of range making errors than a guy with no range and making 10 less errors.

[adambr2]

I'm really not that interested in trying to move Villar right now. With his lack of history of this kind of success, I don't think the offers are going to match the value.

 

Unless you can get a top 25 prospect for him, which you can't, I wouldn't move him.

[wildcat2237]

I'm really not that interested in trying to move Villar right now. With his lack of history of this kind of success, I don't think the offers are going to match the value.

 

Unless you can get a top 25 prospect for him, which you can't, I wouldn't move him.

 

I have to disagree. Villar is an excellent sell high candidate.

 

I agree that you are not going to get a king's ransom(top 25 prospect), but I think that at least one team would make a worth while offer and give 2 or 3 nice pieces.

 

It would would absolutely kill me if Villar regresses in 2017 and is once again worth Cy Sneed.

 

For good or for bad Villar reminds of a bit of Scott Podsednik.

[reillymcshane]

The only way Arcia would get dealt would be for another similar young major league ready top prospect, but of a different position, like a pitcher such as Julio Urias. Very hard to find matches like that.

[adambr2]

I'm really not that interested in trying to move Villar right now. With his lack of history of this kind of success, I don't think the offers are going to match the value.

 

Unless you can get a top 25 prospect for him, which you can't, I wouldn't move him.

 

I have to disagree. Villar is an excellent sell high candidate.

 

I agree that you are not going to get a king's ransom(top 25 prospect), but I think that at least one team would make a worth while offer and give 2 or 3 nice pieces.

 

It would would absolutely kill me if Villar regresses in 2017 and is once again worth Cy Sneed.

 

For good or for bad Villar reminds of a bit of Scott Podsednik.

 

I don't know, Scotty Po was (28?) when we traded him and coming off a pretty mediocre season compared to what Villar is doing now. Villar is still young, the upside is still there.

I have

I think Villar is pretty legit. One thing that really has stood out to me is how consistent he has been. There haven't been a whole lot of peaks and valleys. He hasn't has extended slumps. For the most part he's been within 5 points or so of .300 the entire season.

 

I think the BABIP indicates some regression is in order, but with his speed and improving LD rate, he should still hold steady in the .350-.375 range. All in all I think he'll end up being a .280 hitter with a .350 or so OBP, an .800 OPS, and the potential to be a 20 HR/50 SB player every year. I think his defense will improve - never going to be above average, but I think he has the skillset and range to at least come back closer to average.

 

Couple that with his versatility and that's a very valuable player. Many expect Villar to regress but it rarely gets acknowledged that as good as he is, he has parts of his game that could be significantly improved, mainly, defense. It's plausible that at his age that he could improve his weaknesses and be even more valuable than he is now.

[MrTPlush]

The right match one could get a Top 25 prospect for Villar. The guys has mashed all season long. I bet scouts gush over what Villar does every day. Hits the ball hard consistently and never had an extended slump. A 4+ WAR player with four years of super cheap control. You still need to find the right match, but Villar definitely has that kind of value potential.

[TigerUppercut]

The right match one could get a Top 25 prospect for Villar. The guys has mashed all season long. I bet scouts gush over what Villar does every day. Hits the ball hard consistently and never had an extended slump. A 4+ WAR player with four years of super cheap control. You still need to find the right match, but Villar definitely has that kind of value potential.

 

Bingo! I feel like Villar bring us back to the age old argument of brewerfan.net'ers valuing guys that came up through the system much higher vs. those that did not. While I would listen to any and all offers, had Villar come up through the Brewer ranks, I feel like those advocating the "sell high" approach would be asking for a top 10 guy or looking for an extension. Think about it this way, Arcia's absolute offensive ceiling is probably what Villar is doing this year. While Arcia is a better defender, he probably won't reach those offensive heights.

[FVBrewerFan]

The right match one could get a Top 25 prospect for Villar. The guys has mashed all season long. I bet scouts gush over what Villar does every day. Hits the ball hard consistently and never had an extended slump. A 4+ WAR player with four years of super cheap control. You still need to find the right match, but Villar definitely has that kind of value potential.

 

Yea, I wouldn't even take a top 25 guy for Arcia or Villar. 6 and 4 yrs of control, respectively, for a really good player, and the other starting to prove it.

 

I'm in the camp that every player is always on the table. But I just can't see anyone offering enough.

[MrTPlush]

I feel like those advocating the "sell high" approach would be asking for a top 10 guy or looking for an extension..

 

I have heard many over the months say Villar is absolutely terrible on defense making too many errors. Villar's fielding % this year is .965 and Orlando Arcia for his career at SS .966

 

However I doubt we will ever hear about Arcia making too many errors and being terrible at defense.

[Greenleaf1]

The nice part about a lot of our "sell high" players (Villar, Guerra, Thornburg) this offseason is that we don't have to trade any of them. This will almost certainly bring their value higher if we do wish to trade them because teams that want them have no leverage. We can just as easily hold onto players like this at this point and deal them at a later date.

 

Villar is an impact player, if we aren't getting someone who doesn't have the potential to be even better, I don't see the point in moving him.

[adambr2]

Yeah, at some point, you've got to build around some of the guys who are not only young but among your best players at the MLB level. You can't sell them all.

 

I could understand if Villar was entering his 2nd arby year, but he's already under club control through 2020. I don't think he's due for a significant regression. I think his average and OBP might dip a bit, but his power should remain pretty consistent and I think there's a good chance his defense and baserunning instincts will improve as he matures. (speaking of that, has anyone even brought up his baserunning in the last month? Maybe he's already starting to trend in the right direction there. )

 

I don't see any reason he won't be a good player for a long time. It would take a hell of a pitching prospect to make me want to part with him, and I don't see that happening.

[1992casey]

His Range Factor is Top 3 in the NL

 

Just say no to range factor. It's affected by too much that doesn't involve defense, such as pitchers who strike out a lot of batters vs. those who induce ground balls.

[MrTPlush]

His Range Factor is Top 3 in the NL

 

Just say no to range factor. It's affected by too much that doesn't involve defense, such as pitchers who strike out a lot of batters vs. those who induce ground balls.

 

You don't have to if you don't want. He has top notch range and it's hard to argue that.

[homer]

As an aside...apparently Tom Tango (who actually posted on this site once or twice) is developing some new defensive metric by using the stat cast data. Hopefully that takes some of the guesswork out of judging defensive value.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-qa-with-tom-tango-the-new-czar-of-statcast/

 

TT: For fielding, that one has great potential. Mitchel Lichtman has also been the leader with regards to fielding, but he will be the first to tell you the major problem he’s got is that he doesn’t know the starting position of each fielder. Statcast gives us that. I don’t know how many terabytes of data we get out of Statcast, but 50% of the value will simply be knowing where the feet of all the fielders are, when the pitcher releases the ball. Just by doing that, it would essentially make all other fielding metrics obsolete. Then we can spend the other 99% of the time focusing on all the nuances that we can get out of Statcast that will end up giving us some interesting angles. So, the value is in knowing the starting position, but the fun is knowing all the little things that we watch baseball for

[endaround]

His Range Factor is Top 3 in the NL

 

Just say no to range factor. It's affected by too much that doesn't involve defense, such as pitchers who strike out a lot of batters vs. those who induce ground balls.

 

You don't have to if you don't want. He has top notch range and it's hard to argue that.

UZR has his range at 4.2 runs below average on the year at SS. His range isn't good. His UZR/150 is the worst SS this century. He's bad. And he's been bad at 3B so far too but that has only been 330+ innings vs 2250 at SS.

[1992casey]

His Range Factor is Top 3 in the NL

 

Just say no to range factor. It's affected by too much that doesn't involve defense, such as pitchers who strike out a lot of batters vs. those who induce ground balls.

You don't have to if you don't want. He has top notch range and it's hard to argue that.

Actually, I mean ignore it, disregard it, reject it, avoid it, pay no mind to it, scorn it, evade it, brush it off, and let it go. It’s that useless. And worse, it’s misleading because one might be tempted to think it has some value. It’s as bad as RBIs. No, it’s actually more useless. At least RBIs have value for the purpose of trivia questions. Range Factor can't even offer that.

 

UZR has his range at 4.2 runs below average on the year at SS. His range isn't good. His UZR/150 is the worst SS this century. He's bad. And he's been bad at 3B so far too but that has only been 330+ innings vs 2250 at SS.

Do you think the UZRs of Brewers players might be negatively affected by all the shifts they employ?

[MKE81]

His Range Factor is Top 3 in the NL

 

Just say no to range factor. It's affected by too much that doesn't involve defense, such as pitchers who strike out a lot of batters vs. those who induce ground balls.

 

You don't have to if you don't want. He has top notch range and it's hard to argue that.

UZR has his range at 4.2 runs below average on the year at SS. His range isn't good. His UZR/150 is the worst SS this century. He's bad. And he's been bad at 3B so far too but that has only been 330+ innings vs 2250 at SS.

Are we still talking about Villar here? Do people watch games with their eyes closed then open them up when looking at Fangraphs believing whatever they say? That's the only explanation. Villar has great range. I'm perplexed as to how someone believes otherwise. One can have great range and be a great defender while another player can have equally great range and be a poor defender. Range has nothing to do with the act of fielding a ball.

[1992casey]

Are we still talking about Villar here?

 

Yeah, I believe so.

 

I think that "defense" encompasses everything. That would include range, arm, and errors. That's why I get annoyed when writers and broadcasters use fielding percentage as a synonym for "defense." If you want to break it down, be specific and say "range," "arm," or "errors." If you want to evaluate the total package, one aspect can offset another.

[gregmag]

In evaluating Villar's defense at 3b, I think we have to give some consideration to the fact that he moved to the position midseason, with zero prep time. I've seen him make a few bad plays that basically look like the work of a guy who isn't used to playing the position. Macho truisms about "no excuses!" aside, we would seem to have good reason to expect him to improve at 3b (or 2b if they go that route) with reps in the offseason and spring.

 

I can't imagine wanting to trade either Arcia or Villar right now. Sure Villar could regress. He's 25; he could also improve. His power has come on stronger as the season has progressed. He's young enough to help us contend in two years, he's versatile, and he does things that aren't easy to replace. Of course you trade anybody if teams back up a truck, but that's a completely passive approach, and that's the approach I would take with both Arcia and Villar.