Matt Garza

[adambr2]

6th, 14th, 17th, 3rd, 5th, 14th, 8th, 3rd, 11th, 29th, 14th, 11th, 14th, 11th, 17th , 9th, 5th, 9th, 15th, 19th, is the offensive rankings in runs scored of every team Garza has faced this season. Average of 12th.

 

I really don't think there is anything to see here. Like sveum said, slightly above average. That's probably a product of having the Cards and Cubs (3rd and 5th ranked offenses) in our division and I would expect that most of our pitchers have a relatively similar average OPS faced this year.

[Roderick]

To me, the biggest thing about Garza is that he blocks other players from getting a chance.

 

I don't think he's ever going to fetch much by way of trade - now by the trading deadline next year. But whatever you can get for him, you get. Because by moving Matt you open up the rotation spot for other guys.

 

I'd rather figure out the rotation with Nelson, Davis, Peralta, Guerra, Hader, Anderson and Jungmann. That's seven guys right there, and then there's fringe guys like Suter. But all these guys are with the team longer term, and I would rather give them the ball every fifth day than Garza.

 

I agree with this. While Garza may end up with slightly higher value at the trading deadline, we need to move someone to free up a spot.

 

I don't want to sell low on Nelson or Peralta, I want to see what Anderson can do next year, we won't get full value for Guerra without more MLB starter innnings under his belt, and being young, good, and inexpensive Davies is as close to untouchable we have.

 

I am not concerned about freeing up a spot for Hader as he could spend a few more months at AAA. But it wouldn't hurt to give Suter a shot or Jungmann his last shot. I don't know the club's thoughts on Burgos, but if they offer a true shot at the team in spring training, he could be an option also.

[brewcrewdue80]

Theres our answer. MLBTR has posted the Phillies will look to add a veteran arm for next season. Garza would be a solid fit for that. Plus his option likely a no-brainer to them. Havent looked at their prospects. But say you are willing to eat 3-8million next year for a bigger return, Im sure would net a positive.

[clancyphile]

Theres our answer. MLBTR has posted the Phillies will look to add a veteran arm for next season. Garza would be a solid fit for that. Plus his option likely a no-brainer to them. Havent looked at their prospects. But say you are willing to eat 3-8million next year for a bigger return, Im sure would net a positive.

 

Phillies get:

RHP Matt Garza

OF Tyrone Taylor

$6,000,000 of Garza's salary covered

 

Brewers get:

SS Malquin Canelo

C Deivi Grullon

[JDBrewCrew]

Idk... I'm kind of digging Sixto Sanchez from the Phillies. 80 grade name.

[JohnBriggs12]

Garza's trade value is about what Aaron Hill's was last year. Somebody could take him but not as the main piece in a deal. In other words his trade value has gone from negative to neutral, but nobody's going to give up any value in a one for one deal. So who do you package him with? Gennett? Maldonado? Nelson? A prospect in a position of some strength or one coming off a good year like Wren?

 

I'm in agreement with reillymcshane that the main benefit for unloading him is to make room for potentially better options though having extra salary flexibility to bolster the pen or a position of need (adding a LH bat to the mix) might come in handy.

[JosephC]

I'd put Garza's value firmly on the negative side. Fangraph's had him at what I feel is an unreasonably high 1.4 WAR and Baseball Reference had him at an unreasonably low -0.3 WAR. I'd slot him right in the middle of that...a 0.5 WAR player. On the market that's roughly a 4 million dollar player, and since Garza is still owed 18.5 million (10.5 million in salary in 2017, then 2 million dollars in deferred payments in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021) he is still a negative value player.

 

I think he's a solid hold candidate. If I'm an opposing GM looking at him during the off-season, he's a vastly overpaid pitcher on the back end of his career and there will be many other back-end starter candidates available at better prices. However, if he is just pitching OK (ERA in low 4's, WHIP in the low 1.3's) and is healthy in July of next year he could hold more value. Some pitchers on contending clubs will get injured and some others will be in the midst of a disappointing season. The pool will be thinned out and veteran starters will carry a higher price tag. Then a couple GM's could view him as a veteran pitcher who has been through it all before that will give the club not necessarily great but reliable innings down the stretch. And if he is pitching OK, then a trade partner will look at the 5 million option for 2018 as an attractive feature of the deal whereas I don't think anyone would look at it as much of a benefit currently.

 

Bottom line, I think if the Brewers trade him in December they end up giving the opposing club 14 million along with Garza and get back a fringe prospect. If they wait until July and IF Garza is pitching OK (and that's a big IF), then I could see a deal where they only have to include 8 million in the deal and get back a couple role player type prospects.

 

I think the starter who will get traded is Peralta. I'm not saying that's what I want to see because it's a definite sell low situation, but that's what I think will happen.

[MrTPlush]

So we hold onto him till July and if all goes right we still pay $14mil to Garza. ($6mil for the salary till we trade him and $8mil to dump him). Doesn't sound very appealing. I'd argue opening up the rotation spot is more valuable than the off chance we can get a few role player prospects.

[billymac]

I believe he will be traded this winter. He gave up more than 3 earned runs twice in his last 12 starts dating back to the end of July after sitting out the first 2 months. I think we will eat enough money to bring back a lower level prospect. He will have a $5M club option in 2018 as he will not meet the 110 games started in the first 4 years(71 through the first 3). That is a very reasonable for a 5th starter who can pitch like the last 2 months we had him this year, especially if we eat a bunch of money on it.

 

We have young arms that need pitch for us. I think Stearns is highly motivated to move him and there will be a few teams looking for end of rotation starters.

[JohnBriggs12]

Try this one:. Garza and Maldonado to the Rockies for Parra and lefty hitting catcher Tony Wolters Parra is a bounce back candidate much like Hill was last year. Wolters would make nice young soft platoon with Susac. Adding 2 lefty bats would ease the loss of Gennett should that be the plan.

[jerichoholicninja]

Who exactly is Garza blocking at the start of next year? I've seen this posted before but I don't see anyone he is blocking. I don't consider Suter a starter and the next SP prospects really don't have a shot at making the team out of camp.

[LouisEly]

They do have seven starters: Guerra, Peralta, Anderson, Garza, Davies, Nelson, Jungmann. (Before you roast the last item on this list, he was pretty good in 2015 with a sample size 4x larger than 2016, and he pitched really well in Biloxi this year.)

 

That being said, I think it easily sorts itself out. Based on the way they finished I think Nelson gets sent down (IIC he has two options left) to see if he can right the ship like it did for Peralta. That leaves six, and only one of Anderson/Davies/Jungmann to be sent down or go to the pen, likely Jungmann, assuming the other five are healthy. If they are pitching well then I think both Guerra and Garza are gone by July 31 with Hader and Woodruff ready for a shot; the Brewers then have the freedom to move Anderson, Nelson or Peralta if the return is adequate. It's good to have options.

 

I believe only two teams used fewer starting pitchers than the Brewers did this season (9). The odds of all nine being healthy come July is probably slim. And spending some time in the major league bullpen did not hurt the development of Carlos Martinez, Lance Lynn, and others, even if the rotation is full.

[JosephC]

They do have seven starters: Guerra, Peralta, Anderson, Garza, Davies, Nelson, Jungmann. (Before you roast the last item on this list, he was pretty good in 2015 with a sample size 4x larger than 2016, and he pitched really well in Biloxi this year.)

 

 

That's pretty much how I see it. Same seven starting candidates. I'd guess the Brewers are viewing Suter as a reliever. Very doubtful that the Brewers would want to start the major league service time clock on Hader at the beginning of the season (certainly wouldn't rule out a mid-season callup). So two extra, one to trade and the other for insurance in case of an injury in spring training. If no injury in spring training then one gets moved to the bullpen. The only two I don't think there is any chance of being moved is Davies and Nelson. I don't think Garza, Anderson or Jungmann brings any type of return whatsoever. Guerra or Peralta seem most likely to me, players Stearns would be willing to deal and guys that actually might bring something back. With Peralta it wouldn't be more than a solid role player prospect type, but that's still more than what Garza, Anderson or Jungmann would bring.

[adambr2]

I don't see Peralta getting traded as others have mentioned. I think teams will be looking to pay for the 5 ERA pitcher he was, and he's been better than that since returning.

 

I think he's a much better hold candidate that could be worth much more if he has a 1st half next year like his last couple months this year.

[Greenleaf1]

Out of Guerra, Peralta, Anderson, Garza, Davies, Nelson, Jungmann, Suter, I would say the locks for that rotation next year barring any moves would be:

 

1. Guerra

2. Davies

3. Peralta

4. Anderson

5. Garza

 

With Nelson starting the year at AAA, Suter in the bullpen, and Jungmann either in the bullpen or starting the year at AAA.

 

We've also got Hader at AAA, Woodruff/Ortiz likely starting at AA and getting mid-season promotions to AAA, maybe ready to come up late in the year or in 2018, so we've got a lot of competition for the rotation and only more guys coming up the pipeline behind them.

 

Nelson starting the year at AAA is not good for anyone, so I think we trade one of the 5 I listed above and let him get a chance to work out his stuff in the big leagues (then if he can't do that, send him down in May/June and give Hader or Jungmann a shot depending on how they're doing).

[FVBrewerFan]

It's just not an issue yet. First step is getting everyone through ST healthy, and I would say that's roughly a 50/50 chance. Also, someone COULD be traded in the off-season, but probably as an addition to a Braun trade. I can't see getting any value back for any of our SP at this point.

 

Assuming all 6 are still with the team, and healthy, Anderson is the odd man out. He goes to BP or AAA to get some starts. Then, depends when Hader is ready. Timing on that may partially depend on injury and/or bad pitching by a couple of the current starters. But I see him coming up mid-seasonish one way or another.

 

Finally, there's the trade deadline where one of these guys can be dealt. If that happens, maybe Woodruff gets called up if he's having a good year. that's pretty much how I see all of this shaking out.

[mrn1ceguy]

One thing to consider for Garza (and others) is this years FA class of starting pitching is very small. That could drive the price up beyond actual value (like the trade deadline surge for elite closers). If that happens, it might be a sell high for players like Garza, Guera, and Anderson. If that offset market happens, I say trade as many as you can and fix the rotation later as these players shouldn't figure in to our long term plans and any gains over a half season of good play may not offset a surge in value due to scarcity.

[MrTPlush]

Try this one:. Garza and Maldonado to the Rockies for Parra and lefty hitting catcher Tony Wolters Parra is a bounce back candidate much like Hill was last year. Wolters would make nice young soft platoon with Susac. Adding 2 lefty bats would ease the loss of Gennett should that be the plan.

 

Gerardo Parra? He is a disaster with the bat and his defense is a joke. His offense has never been good and his defense has gotten so bad there is no upside whatsoever. Best case scenario he puts up 1 WAR...best case. With -4WAR in his last 600 PAs I think I will find a different way to waste money. We honestly probably have dozens of guys who could put up stats like Parra laying around.

[brewcrewdue80]

One thing to consider for Garza (and others) is this years FA class of starting pitching is very small. That could drive the price up beyond actual value (like the trade deadline surge for elite closers). If that happens, it might be a sell high for players like Garza, Guera, and Anderson. If that offset market happens, I say trade as many as you can and fix the rotation later as these players shouldn't figure in to our long term plans and any gains over a half season of good play may not offset a surge in value due to scarcity.

 

Along the lines of my sentiments. I think the Pitching market will be so scrapyard looking and 2-3year deals being asked for by these scrapheaps that Garza's 5mil option for 2018 and 1mil potential makes him very attractive buy low option for trade. Just keep in mind Kyle Lohse was signed and pitched briefly and horribly for Texas! That's the desperation multiple teams will have. Miami comes to mind. The Sad loss of Jose Fernandez and Andrew Cashner being a FA. They are putting Adam Conley or Wei-Yen Chen atop their Rotation? They'll look for a Garza type fill-in who's been atop of the team's rotation experience. Who'd they get back in return, I don't know, depends on the Cash that exchanges hands. At the moment MLB only has Miami has having just 1 top 100 prospect, trading away 1 in Josh Naylor for Andrew Cashner plus non-100s prospects. Cashner certainly didn't post a better recent numbers than what Garza has in '14&15.

So, I wouldn't put Garza out of the realm of possibility as a Negative value when half a season of Cashner attained that return.

[JohnBriggs12]

Try this one:. Garza and Maldonado to the Rockies for Parra and lefty hitting catcher Tony Wolters Parra is a bounce back candidate much like Hill was last year. Wolters would make nice young soft platoon with Susac. Adding 2 lefty bats would ease the loss of Gennett should that be the plan.

 

Gerardo Parra? He is a disaster with the bat and his defense is a joke. His offense has never been good and his defense has gotten so bad there is no upside whatsoever. Best case scenario he puts up 1 WAR...best case. With -4WAR in his last 600 PAs I think I will find a different way to waste money. We honestly probably have dozens of guys who could put up stats like Parra laying around.

 

Parra's career has been a roller coaster, up one year, down the next. He's still just 29 so you'd be gambling that he'll rebound yet again, but your not giving up anything of value and you'd also be getting a young lefty hitting catcher.

[MrTPlush]

But I am:

 

Garza=$12.5 Mil

Parra=$20mil

 

So right off the bat it is costing me $7.5mil to get a player who according to BR.com was worth -2.8 WAR. It would probably cost even more than that because I bet we could trade Garza away and not pay the entire salary. So probably about $10mil+. All that for an OFer who is 10x worse than any current OFer we have and we have nowhere to put him either.

 

This is actually pretty weird since usually you are trying to compete, but with this move it sounds like you want to tank Briggs.

[Outlander]

He wants to bring balance to the lineup so I can see where he is coming from since he has made that stance known. Not saying that Parra would bounce back but with all the below average outfielders that played this year and forcing Perez to play RF and even CF, I am pretty positive that Parra would get plenty of playing time. It is kind of strange how bad defensively Parra is now though still in his 20's when just a few years ago he was above average.

[JohnBriggs12]

He wants to bring balance to the lineup so I can see where he is coming from since he has made that stance known. Not saying that Parra would bounce back but with all the below average outfielders that played this year and forcing Perez to play RF and even CF, I am pretty positive that Parra would get plenty of playing time. It is kind of strange how bad defensively Parra is now though still in his 20's when just a few years ago he was above average.

 

Defensive metrics are still in their infancy so he probably wasn't as good as they said he was earlier and now he's not as bad..

 

As to salaries, weren't some of you complaining about taking on Aaron Hill too saying he was useless and done? For goodness sake it's been 14 1/2 months since Parra was turned into the Brewers current #2 starter. Is Parra overpaid? Sure and significantly, but unlike Garza, he wouldn't be taking a job from a young promising player unless you include Wren in that group and even at his worst, he's a better player overall than Nieuwenhuis who they could simply non-tender and save $1.5 million or so. If Parra could put together 3-4 solid months either in 2017 or 2018, he'd re-establish trade value.

[MrTPlush]

First off I'd like to say I was not a complainer about getting Hill.

 

It's just way to much negative value to take back just to rid ourselves of say $8m of Garz's contract(since I am guessing we could shed $4mil of that without picking anything up). Is Wolters really worth that much? I don't think so. The Hill trade got us Isan Diaz who is flying up prospect lists.

[adambr2]

First off I'd like to say I was not a complainer about getting Hill.

 

It's just way to much negative value to take back just to rid ourselves of say $8m of Garz's contract(since I am guessing we could shed $4mil of that without picking anything up). Is Wolters really worth that much? I don't think so. The Hill trade got us Isan Diaz who is flying up prospect lists.

 

I couldn't believe when I read articles after that trade by writers scratching their heads, bewildered as to why we traded for Aaron Hill when we're rebuilding.

 

So we could get Isan Diaz, duh.