Forecast of the 2017 rosters/organizational depth chart

[And That]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B86F-cCNo5RxMVBoRmdLWHF5ZGs/view?usp=sharing

 

I have been using a version of the linked file at home for quite a while, but thought I would share it with you all. The first tab is an organizational depth chart for the Brewers, with players highlighted by 40-man/Rule 5 status. The second tab is an (at this point absurdly early) forecast of the 2017 rosters, from Milwaukee down through Wisconsin. I apologize if the formatting needs some work - going from my Excel file to Google's interpretation of my Excel hasn't been extremely smooth, but I am working on it. I think the color coding is pretty clear anyway.

 

Position players are assigned their position (1B, 2B, etc., or one of the four utility slots) based roughly on where they've played the past season or two. If a guy played 500 innings at third and 20 innings at second, I have him as a third baseman. If he played 260 innings at each position, he's listed as a utility IF. Pitchers are listed as starters if they have been starters (straight or tandem) for the most part.

 

Just a note about the forecasts, I make no assumptions about players being released or traded. So anyone who is currently on the 40-man and who will be out of options next year has the 2017 MLB roster made. I fully realize that this will not be the case, but for right now I think it's easiest to make as few assumptions as possible. I also don't think there is too much of a trickle down effect into the minors - there will be 25 players on Milwaukee's roster come next opening day, and very few of them are currently playing in the Brewers' minor league system.

 

I have been pretty good about keeping this updated at home, so hopefully that will continue now that it's available to all.

[molitor fan]

love it...thank you

[Greenleaf1]

This is great, thanks for doing it!

 

I'll be very interested to see what they do with their 3 catchers this month and into next year. Wouldn't be at all surprised if we had 3 catchers on the opening day roster next year, but that would only be if Susac shows us something, otherwise he's too easy to start the year at AAA (by my count, he's used 2 of 3 option years already so next year we could still option him).

[And That]

Updated formatting a bit, and added notes about the three players who will accrue enough service time to refuse optional/outright assignments in 2017.

[recte44]

I thought I saw somewhere that both Pina and Susac were going to be out of options going into next year.

[And That]

Susac's contract was selected in July 2014, and he was not first optioned until the following March. He was optioned again in 2016. Unless there are missing transactions from 2014 on his MLB page, he should have one option remaining going into next year.

[Outlander]

According to the roster guru here he did not spend 20 days in the minors in 2015 when he was sent down so 2016 was actually his first option. Has 2 left.

[Herm]

one comment, even before the recent hot streak, I'd have thought Santana is pretty much locked in in RF next year to see what they have.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Looking at it, I think one of the most interesting spots as far as placements go next year will be the A+ pitching staff and the trickle-down effect that it has on the Timber Rattler staff. With a lot of guys who were perhaps pushed a bit this year not really looking good enough to get the promotion to AA, there could be a bit of a backlog with the Rattler staff then filled out by more guys who already have A ball experience than normal, including a fair number who had some success with Wisconsin (Brown, Yamamoto, Desguin, Sanchez, Supak, Jankins, perhaps even Burnes).

[NolanBratt]

FYI:

 

"@longenhagen: Brewers righty Taylor Williams 95-98, thought I saw a 99 on one gun."

 

 

Another potentially exciting guy to follow next year in Carolina (probably).

[NolanBratt]

https://brewerprospect.wordpress.com/depth-chart/

 

I've been trying to compile what some of the minor league rosters might look like to start the 2017 season. Have a look! Let me know if I'm missing anybody. I'll try to update this as soon as a transaction takes place.

[adambr2]

https://brewerprospect.wordpress.com/depth-chart/

 

I've been trying to compile what some of the minor league rosters might look like to start the 2017 season. Have a look! Let me know if I'm missing anybody. I'll try to update this as soon as a transaction takes place.

 

Mighty fine work there, I don't know if I can disagree with much of anything.

 

That's a very exciting OF in Colorado Springs.

 

There has been some talk of Dubon starting in Colorado Springs but I agree he'll begin in Biloxi, no real reason to push him at 22.

[pacopete4]

Is Gilbert Lara ever going to move up the ladder?

[Jenkins5]

I have a feeling both Demi & Lara will be in Wisconsin. They didn't have great seasons but Brewers I think will be aggressive & they will show enough in Spring.

 

Now that Brewers don't need to be scared to send talented hitters to A+ helps a lot. Don't think even with the injuries, Harrison gets taken away from his wave and group. He had some really good moments prior and after injury. I'd probably slot some players differently but overall great job!

[NolanBratt]

With Demi & Lara, I feel as though they're candidates to join the Rattlers sometime in between start of full season & before the draft (a la Trent Clark last year). Even so, Lara turned 19 two months ago. Still would be quite young even for the Midwest League. Demi's bat still has plenty of holes in it. I'm not in any rush to get him to A-ball. Also still 19.

 

Another thing I'm trying to think through: It seems like there's plenty of arms that are capable and ready to pitch at A+ in Carolina, but because of the overload of starting pitching options, some may start in Wisconsin, just to get consistent starts and innings under their belt. Guys like Yamamoto, who had a great 2016, and I'd like to see at the next level. Or Zack Brown or Trey Supak. Otherwise, you may see multiple tandem starters pitching the same day, which happen often in Wisconsin last year.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Yah, thanks to a combination of trades, injuries, the fact that a number of the guys at BC last year probably should have been in low A, an abnormally strong 2015 college pitching draft class and a strong start for a few of the 2016 guys, the Brewers have more guys who should be in the A+ starting rotation than there are spots. Unless they go to tandem starters at Carolina as well, I think a number of the guys you've got in A+ will end up back at Wisconsin for at least a while.

 

I'm also thinking they go conservative to start the year with the outfielders, with Harrison and Clark in Wisconsin for at least the first month or two.

[Outlander]

A real nice listing, can really see the depth of talent when looking at that. I do think they stick with Angel Ventura as a starter in AA. Also predicting Maverick begins the year in AA and maybe Roach goes to AAA because he is getting to the point where he needs to move up or out. Might be a little More aggressive on T Williams as well since he is on the 40 man but he could be a guy that begins the year in high A but spends time in AA and AAA during the year as well and maybe even the bigs.

[ebmackenzie]

NolanBratt...good work there! More than a lil surprised at who was listed as starters and who found themselves in the 'pen. I guess this is something that is going to sort itself out...but it seems to be the makings of another messy 40 man roster decision coming next year.

[And That]

Is Gilbert Lara ever going to move up the ladder?

Lara turned 19 about 6 weeks ago. We've been talking about him forever, but even if he repeats rookie ball, he's just fine from a prospect age standpoint.

[pacopete4]

Is Gilbert Lara ever going to move up the ladder?

Lara turned 19 about 6 weeks ago. We've been talking about him forever, but even if he repeats rookie ball, he's just fine from a prospect age standpoint.

 

Yeah I'm probably being way too impatient because he's been around so long now.

[MadThinker88]

Nice try at this. Its never easy doing it from scratch and trying to do all the organizational levels.

 

Unless I missed the designation on the sheet, one suggestion regarding the starting pitchers: you might want to designate guys that would slot into piggy-back roles (ie Player A goes 4 or 5 IP in the start and Player B finishes it out. Next time thru the rotation, the players reverse with B starting and A finishing the game).

 

I know a number of clubs, including the Indians do this with one (sometimes 2) rotation slots from the High A level on down. It allows for another person to get "starting pitching development" as it gets guys into set routines and patterns.

IF DS has not already implemented this practice with the Brewer development plans, I imagine it is right around the corner in intro since there are so many extra players (especially pitchers) needing a place to play and develop further.

[NolanBratt]

Nice try at this. Its never easy doing it from scratch and trying to do all the organizational levels.

 

Unless I missed the designation on the sheet, one suggestion regarding the starting pitchers: you might want to designate guys that would slot into piggy-back roles (ie Player A goes 4 or 5 IP in the start and Player B finishes it out. Next time thru the rotation, the players reverse with B starting and A finishing the game).

 

I know a number of clubs, including the Indians do this with one (sometimes 2) rotation slots from the High A level on down. It allows for another person to get "starting pitching development" as it gets guys into set routines and patterns.

IF DS has not already implemented this practice with the Brewer development plans, I imagine it is right around the corner in intro since there are so many extra players (especially pitchers) needing a place to play and develop further.

 

I know what you mean. It's the ideal way to go about having a load of SP talent in places like Carolina. I think it might have been mentioned earlier in the thread, but I think you'll definitely see that tandem or "piggy-back" role be put into place at the High-A and possibly Low-A levels again this season. Brewers utilized that last year in Wisconsin, having tandems of Diplan/F. Peralta and Burnes/Z. Brown throughout most of the year, and then with Jankins/Desguin once Peralta and Diplan moved to Brevard County. As far as showing that on the depth chart, it's a little tougher, since I really don't know who'll be piggy-backing with the other. Instead, the first few guys on each level from High-A on down are the pitchers who are probably still being developed as a SP and could be in a tandem role in 2017.

[CheeseheadInQC]

It will be interesting to see, but outside of last year, have the Brewers ever implemented the tandem starters at A+? And even last year I think it was just done occasionally with the guys who were promoted from Wisconsin and had been tandem starters there. It might be just as likely that a few get moved to the bullpen and others get held back at Wisconsin for at least part of the season.

[Greenleaf1]

Based on Stearns's comment in Haudricourt's recent interview, it sounds like they will be making case-by-case decisions on whether pitchers will ever pitch in Colorado Springs this year, and he also won't be afraid to call up a pitcher directly from AA. I think this will help us put together better predictions for what pitchers will start where at the beginning of the season. For example, we can probably infer from this that Jungmann and Lopez will never see Colorado Springs again. So based on that, my guess for the start of the year would be something like:

 

AAA: Hader, Woodruff, Wilkerson, Burgos, Wang

AA: Ortiz, Lopez, Jungmann, Ortega, Perrin

A+: Bickford (after suspension), Ponce, Diplan, Medeiros, T Williams, Kirby (with Peralta, D Williams, and maybe Burkhalter going multiple innings in relief)

A: Burnes, Supak, Pennington, Yamamoto, Desguin(?)

 

There's a bit of a logjam at A+, especially when Bickford comes back, but chances are that Bickford moves up to AA after re-establishing himself post-suspension, and also the possibility that Taylor Williams gets off to a hot start and gets promoted to AA quickly. Most of those A+ prospects underperformed there last year in a pitcher-friendly league, so it'll be interesting to see who continues to burn out and who turns it around.

 

I'm guessing I forgot about a few guys in the listing above, but there's definitely talent at every level that I'm excited to see develop this year.

[packer822]

my guess is they might use the piggy back rotation in both appleton and n.carolina....heck....we may even see some sort of it in milwaukee too...haha