2016 Arizona Fall League updates

[MKE81]

After reading post #96, I have never been more sure of anything in my life that I'd shortly be reading what was written in post #97, and by whom it would be written.

 

I was soon regretting my post when I realized it would wake up the Davis monster in Briggs.

i laughed at this

 

I can't believe Stearns gave up on a LF who allows runners to walk from 1st to 3b on routine singles hit directly at him not to mention allowing 99.9999% of runners on 2b to score on any ball hit at him. Then got a Top 100 (BP) catching prospect in return to boot? Fire Stearns now!!

 

28yr old Davis - 247/307/831 with 42HR

DH 36% of the time so if the A's were in the NL he would have lost all that PT (just like he did with Brewers) resulting in 237/304/815 with 27HR

 

23yr old Santana - 256/345/792 but 2nd half slashed 280/344/852

26yr old Broxton - 242/354/784 but 2nd half slashed 294/399/937 (16 SB too)

 

Not like we want younger players who play on both sides of the ball with strong arms while getting on base at a much higher clip or anything. But carry on...

 

Additionally, this Dave guy is terrible. To the point nobody should take his scouting reports seriously. He said Tebow could easily handle low level minor league pitching right now and would make initial comparison to Evan Gattis or Scott Schebler at the major league level. 2 guys who have had great success at every level in the minors and who are now in MLB.

 

He's the same guy who said Diaz's HR power will turn into gap power when everyone else raves about his bat speed/power. He's the same guy who said Phillips CEILING is a 5th OF THEN compared him to Victorino (2x AS, 4x GG). Says Nottingham's CEILING is a 40 (backup) then assigns his highest ratings for his defense (50) and arm(55) when his defense is the main part of his game everyone knocks. This guy's scouting reports make little to no sense.

[MrTPlush]

Additionally, this Dave guy is terrible. To the point nobody should take his scouting reports seriously. He said Tebow could easily handle low level minor league pitching right now and would make initial comparison to Evan Gattis or Scott Schebler at the major league level. 2 guys who have had great success at every level in the minors and who are now in MLB.

 

This guy's scouting reports make little to no sense.

 

Yah not a big fan of his scouting report and it does seem very contradicting at times. I don't necessarily disagree with his "realistic role" being a back-up catcher...except for the fact he grades his offense as notably below average and his future defense as average. Who is going to get a back-up catcher job with no offense and questionable defense?

 

Honestly I think his ceiling is higher than a 40 overall. I think his ceiling would be more like an average MLB catcher if his bat came around. He is a boom or bust guy. Either he becomes an decent catcher or never does anything at the MLB level. Not sure he could make it as a back-up catcher.

[MKE81]

Additionally, this Dave guy is terrible. To the point nobody should take his scouting reports seriously. He said Tebow could easily handle low level minor league pitching right now and would make initial comparison to Evan Gattis or Scott Schebler at the major league level. 2 guys who have had great success at every level in the minors and who are now in MLB.

 

This guy's scouting reports make little to no sense.

 

Yah not a big fan of his scouting report and it does seem very contradicting at times. I don't necessarily disagree with his "realistic role" being a back-up catcher...except for the fact he grades his offense as notably below average and his future defense as average. Who is going to get a back-up catcher job with no offense and questionable defense?

 

Honestly I think his ceiling is higher than a 40 overall. I think his ceiling would be more like an average MLB catcher if his bat came around. He is a boom or bust guy. Either he becomes an decent catcher or never does anything at the MLB level. Not sure he could make it as a back-up catcher.

I agree. Average defense and no offense makes you a career minor leaguer. I think Nottingham has the potential to be an average starting catcher. I don't think his defense is as bad as what's reported based on the potential I see when I watch him during games. I think his arm plays just fine. He had a great 2015 equally splitting A/A+ at 20yrs old then took a sizeable step backwards this year. I think his age had a lot to do with it and we'll see an improved Nottingham in AA again this year. He's played 12 games in AFL and has hits in 8 of them. In those 8 games he's slashing 364/364/909. As he ages his bat will come around to the level he's playing at. Too many people write young players off after relatively poor seasons.

 

There were 30 MLB catchers with 250+ AB last year. 9 of them hit above 265. 11 had an OBP above 330. 15 had an OPS above 720 (11 of the remaining 15 were below 700). Just looking at the stats of catchers in today's game hurts my head!! This is part of the reason I think he'll be an average MLB catcher.

[JohnBriggs12]

Look, Stearns has made some great moves, but dealing Davis who's one of the premier power bats in baseball and in his prime for an iffy catching prospect and a low level arm with barely any track record was a mistake. I know all you guys love Stearns but he's not infallible. Davis has a weak arm, ok. But it wasn't so weak that every hit to left field with a runner on first resulted in him taking third. That simply did not happen. A few good baserunners took advantage of him, but it wasn't a daily occurrence by any means. He started 93 games in LF for Oakland who could have DH'd him every day. Again it wasn't trading Davis that was the issue, it was the timing and that resulted in a lesser return.

 

I'll be thrilled if Nottingham becomes a solid everyday catcher in a few years, or if Derby rebounds from a terrible 2016 and makes an impact in the major leagues. But I'm not holding my breath.

 

Why is it somebody can't disagree with Brewer management on a particular move on this board without creating an uproar anyway? It must be a generational thing. Anyone who challenges the conventional thinking to millennials is a threat you must be protected from. I learned not to trust GM speak back in the 60's when then Braves GM John McHale tried to justify dealing off young arms Joey Jay and Juan Pizarro as they were entering their primes, likely preventing the Braves from more pennants and World Series for Milwaukee and ultimately costing the city the franchise.

[And That]

From Tuesday.

 

Salt River Rafters 2, Peoria Javelinas 12

 

Box Score

 

Game Day

 

Going from the good side of a blowout to the wrong side...

 

All three Brewers offensive players on the club were in the starting lineup today, though only one had a hit. Isan Diaz (playing second) and Brett Phillips both went 0-4 with 2 Ks. Jacob Nottingham went 2-4 with a double and a strikeout. The Javelinas did not attempt a stolen base against him, though the defensive good news ends there as Nottingham committed his second error (on a pickoff throw), and allowed 2 more passed balls. He was also behind the plate for 5 (!) wild pitches.

 

No Brewers farmhands made a mound appearance.

[gregmag]

http://2080baseball.com/reports/jacob-nottingham/

 

Dang a back-up catcher with average defense! That has to get one excited.

 

Relax, they only gave up a 42 HR, 102 RBI controllable bat in his prime to get him.

I'm just curious: If Nottingham puts it together and helps the Brewers in a few years, while Davis fades from his present adequacy (oooh -- rbi!) into mediocrity, will you have the grace and stomach to admit you were wrong? Or will you just never talk about the subject again, like you've done after you complained so loudly about our trades of the mighty, world-beating Adam Lind and Jason Rogers?

 

Repeating the same, tired claims over and over again is the easiest thing in the world. I guess that makes it equally easy just to slink away into the shadows and hide when the claims turn out to be wrong, as yours usually do.

[And That]

Salt River Rafters 5, Scottsdale Scorpions 8

 

Box Score

 

Game Day

 

Second loss in a row keeps the Rafters a half game out of first place.

 

Isan Diaz was back at second base and went 2-5 with a double, two runs scored, a stolen base, and a strikeout. Jacob Nottingham went 0-4 with 2 strikeouts, and was the backstop for 3 more wild pitches. That would be 8 wild pitches and 2 passed balls in the past two days. I know there might be some context to some of those pitches, but short of Nuke LaLoosh and Ricky Vaughn being on the mound, that can't happen.

 

One of the wild pitches belonged to Tyler Spurlin, who was otherwise great again. Spurlin allowed a single to the first batter he faced and proceeded to retire the next 6 batters he faced, 3 via strikeout and 2 via ground ball. Spurlin's fastball velocity was all over the place, with Pitch F/X picking them up anywhere between 87 and 93.

 

Salt River plays again tonight at 8:35 CDT.

[82brewcrew82]

Look, Stearns has made some great moves, but dealing Davis who's one of the premier power bats in baseball and in his prime for an iffy catching prospect and a low level arm with barely any track record was a mistake.

 

 

This is a horrible mis-characterization. If Davis gets injured tomorrow and never plays again, does that make this a good trade? Point being that hindsight is 20/20. When Davis was traded, he was a decent power bat who struck out a ton and was a liability in the OF. The return was one of the better catching prospects in the game and a sleeper with potential upside. That actually seems like a pretty fair deal to me. If we are going to judge a trade well after the fact, then at least let it play out. Just because said trade does not fit a particular narrative about how one believes the franchise should move forward, and is reinforced by some flakey scouting report, does not make it a mistake.

[brewmann04]

Davis was not going to make us a playoff team so lets see what happens with Nottingham still has time to grow into a starting catcher

[FVBrewerFan]

Why is it somebody can't disagree with Brewer management on a particular move on this board without creating an uproar anyway?

 

As you know, people disagree with management all the time. There hasn't been much of that directed at Stearns yet, simply because it's too early to know how most of his moves will pan out.

 

I think what you're asking is why do people jump on you? With all due respect, it's because you present your opinions in a false light. Countless times it has been pointed out the Davis trade was more involved than just Davis for Nottingham/Derby. It was largely done to create playing time for a younger, (probably) better player in Santana.

 

Also, just being honest, but when people point these things out you ignore it and keep saying the same thing. That can get annoying to some. Perfect example, you mentioned how the Brewers NEED a LH power bat, can't win without one. When we pointed out many, many examples of how that just isn't true you went silent in that thread. Yet, you continue to say the same thing in other topics.

 

So no, it's not a generational thing. Quite honestly, I think it would help if you weren't so stubborn in your opinions and consider the comments from some of the posters here. My two cents, carry on.

[CheezWizHed]

JB,

 

I'm pretty sure the uproar is singularly and solely focused on your continued and constant man-Khrush. We get it. You didn't like the trade. But you have brought up Davis' stats in dozens of threads. Often without the topic of Nottingham, Sterns or Davis even being mentioned. Here we are in the AFL thread talking about Nottingham and everyone was sure Davis would come up by you.

 

I'm also sure the uproar is cross-generational. As I'm not a millennial and I know several other "old guys" that are tired of the Davis schtick.

 

And if you think I have an axe to grind about Davis, you can see that my Top25 posts from when he was in the minor leagues that I was consistently higher than the average on Davis. I was probably the first one to rate him above Kentrail Davis.

 

The horse is dead. Water has gone under the bridge, down the river, hit the ocean, evaporated, fell as snow while someone sang "Let it Go", melted, and gone under the bridge a second time.

[MrTPlush]

Briggs has a right to be upset, though he brings a poor argument a lot of times(RBIs). The trade at the present is probably a bad one. However I don't think even if Nottingham flops it is a big enough deal to endlessly bring it up every time there is a chance. If we held onto him another year we could have probably gotten notably more and no we didn't have to open a spot up in the OF. I wanted to open up the spot, though one could argue delaying that for a year.

 

I'd would probably critique his decision to take Nottingham vs. a different trade. However that's something none of us have any knowledge in.

 

Stearns is going to make mistakes and this might end up being one of them. Even Epstein makes mistakes(Heyward) and won a World Series. So breath we can do this.

[MKE81]

1 - I'm not a millennial

2 - Nottingham is 21 and an AFL all-star this year and you're already calling it a failure

3 - As stated above, you only focus on HR/RBI and never factor in Santana/Braun in the corners leaving no place for Davis

4 - Runners started to become more aggressive the 2nd half last year taking the extra base on Davis (going to both 2b and 3b). He NEVER has a chance to throw out a runner at home either

5 - His HR/AB this year was very similar to what it was his career with us outside of one season. He hit 42 because he had an increased number of AB's. So not sure how his numbers this year bring back a much better return than Nottingham, a highly regard catching prospect at the time

6 - You can say you hope Nottingham becomes a decent MLB player but reality is you've never once stated that until right now and most likely only because everyone is jumping on you again for obvious reasons

[jerichoholicninja]

Briggs bashing is all well and good but I have a question relevant to the topic.

 

If a player in the AFL is traded during the AFL season does he then go his new team's AFL team (provided it's a different one) or stick with the team he's currently on?

[And That]

Salt River's Thursday game was cancelled due to rain.

[CheezWizHed]

If a player in the AFL is traded during the AFL season does he then go his new team's AFL team (provided it's a different one) or stick with the team he's currently on?

 

I'd guess the team he was traded to would decide. Most likely he would just go home as the other team probably had their AFL quota filled already.

 

But I'm guessing the situation is very rare. Not many trades going on right now.

[MKE81]

Briggs bashing is all well and good but I have a question relevant to the topic.

 

If a player in the AFL is traded during the AFL season does he then go his new team's AFL team (provided it's a different one) or stick with the team he's currently on?

Interesting question. If the new team wants that player to continue to play in the AFL and their team doesn't have an opening does it hurt to let them continue to play on their original team? Not sure it's possible to begin with but it's not as if a single organization is making the decisions on their play that could ultimately affect performance and/or lead to injury.

[And That]

If a player in the AFL is traded during the AFL season does he then go his new team's AFL team (provided it's a different one) or stick with the team he's currently on?

 

I asked JJ Cooper at BA. Here is his response:

 

The player stays with his “old” AFL team and it doesn’t count to his “new org’s” allotment.

 

Daniel Palka was traded last year during the AFL and stayed with his old club. From what we understand Alcantara is not changing teams.

 

Alcantara being the guy who was just traded for Cameron Maybin.

[Mass Haas]

Pleskoff Scouting Report: Brett Phillips

TodaysKnuckleball.com

 

Nothing new, Pleskoff seemed like a "must-read" guy originally, but his work has been underwhelming this year...

[Mass Haas]

Pleskoff Scouting Report: Brett Phillips

TodaysKnuckleball.com

 

Nothing new, Pleskoff seemed like a "must-read" guy originally, but his work has been underwhelming this year...

 

More on Phillips via John Arguella of 2080baseball.com

[JohnBriggs12]

Look, Stearns has made some great moves, but dealing Davis who's one of the premier power bats in baseball and in his prime for an iffy catching prospect and a low level arm with barely any track record was a mistake.

 

 

This is a horrible mis-characterization. If Davis gets injured tomorrow and never plays again, does that make this a good trade? Point being that hindsight is 20/20. When Davis was traded, he was a decent power bat who struck out a ton and was a liability in the OF. The return was one of the better catching prospects in the game and a sleeper with potential upside. That actually seems like a pretty fair deal to me. If we are going to judge a trade well after the fact, then at least let it play out. Just because said trade does not fit a particular narrative about how one believes the franchise should move forward, and is reinforced by some flakey scouting report, does not make it a mistake.

 

If you want, look back on my posts at the time of the trade. Davis' value hadn't yet been maximized but I sensed he'd put up exactly the type of season he did. It was totally predictable if he stayed healthy for the full season. I compared unloading him to the Bucs not getting value for Bautista and the Reds giving up on Encarnacion, before either's power had fully emerged. Nottingham can of course still make the trade even out but power hitters like Davis don't grow on trees. As for his defense, well Schwarber is a defensive liability for the Cubs too but they are a better team with his bat in the lineup.

[homer]

Look, Stearns has made some great moves, but dealing Davis who's one of the premier power bats in baseball and in his prime for an iffy catching prospect and a low level arm with barely any track record was a mistake.

 

 

This is a horrible mis-characterization. If Davis gets injured tomorrow and never plays again, does that make this a good trade? Point being that hindsight is 20/20. When Davis was traded, he was a decent power bat who struck out a ton and was a liability in the OF. The return was one of the better catching prospects in the game and a sleeper with potential upside. That actually seems like a pretty fair deal to me. If we are going to judge a trade well after the fact, then at least let it play out. Just because said trade does not fit a particular narrative about how one believes the franchise should move forward, and is reinforced by some flakey scouting report, does not make it a mistake.

 

If you want, look back on my posts at the time of the trade. Davis' value hadn't yet been maximized but I sensed he'd put up exactly the type of season he did. It was totally predictable if he stayed healthy for the full season. I compared unloading him to the Bucs not getting value for Bautista and the Reds giving up on Encarnacion, before either's power had fully emerged. Nottingham can of course still make the trade even out but power hitters like Davis don't grow on trees. As for his defense, well Schwarber is a defensive liability for the Cubs too but they are a better team with his bat in the lineup.

 

 

That's just it though. He's been hurt a lot for a young guy. The odds of him getting hurt and missing a decent amount of time were pretty good which would have killed his trade value. He beat the odds.

[Mass Haas]

And with that, this thread will return to AFL-related updates exclusively, thank you.

[Mass Haas]

[Mass Haas]

Via Alec Dopp:

 

I have seen Josh Uhen twice this week. He has thrown 21 sliders. It has induced 7 whiffs. 33% whiff rate. Weak contact in between. Easy 60.