The 2017 Brewers... What is Your View?

[Boomer5]

I am expecting our OF to be Braun/Brinson/Broxton.

 

I don't see Brinson starting the year in the majors. He only has basically one month of AAA under his belt total.

 

My guess is that Santana/Broxton/Braun will be opening day starters.

 

Probably. They will mess around with the Super Two status of course, but Im talking about the bulk of the season. I dont see us trading Braun as it shouldn't be a salary dump and I think those are the only deals we will see. Broxton was being moved to RF in Pitt apparently prior to his trade, and Brinson is our best prospect and seems to be VERY ready.

[tmwiese55]

Gambling that Villar is any better defensively at 2B, than he is at 3B or SS, is foolhardy. He's played less there as a pro than he has at 3B. If you don't trade him, then trade Carter, who'll bring back a lot more than Gennett, and put Villar at 1B. You just can't hide him anywhere else so you need to think out of the box. At least at 1B, he won't be throwing the ball all over the yard.

 

 

I like that you think outside the box as it brings in new, sometimes a little crazy, ideas. And I mean that with no disrespect. I just don't see a move to first base at the age of 25 when he has shows more athletic ability than most. I am in the camp of moving Gennett and allowing Villar to focus solely on playing second base. No reps anywhere else but at 2B. I think that part of his problem defensively has been he's been moved around so much and never had a chance to settle in anywhere. I don't think 3B is the best option for him and feel that getting him at 2B shortens that throw but still allows him to use his range up the middle like a shortstop.

 

Villar's played a grand total of 6 major league innings at 2B, and played just 19 games there in the minor leagues (with 5 errors I might add). That's roughly 20 more games playing 2nd base in pro ball than I have. Where is everyone getting this idea that he's qualified to play 2B? You don't think he'll make errant throws pivoting to turn double plays when he's hardly ever done it? Did you watch Weeks' career? He's a defensive liability anywhere you put him. If you plan to move him, you better find some place in winter ball that will allow him to play there.

 

I think the logic would be that anyone who plays SS should be able to move over to 2B quite easily, or even 3B. Basically that SS is by far the toughest so if you can do that you can do the others. He would seem to make perfect sense with that, he's played tons of SS but isn't quite up to snuff at the MLB for it, so he should be able to move to 2B and be able to handle it. I mean, Perez is a perfect example right in front of us as he's easily been able to cover the other positions.

[monty57]

I think our days of making a ton of moves are behind us. Our position players are pretty well set, and I don't see anyone being traded unless we're blown away. What we see now for position players is probably what we'll see on opening day. Meanwhile, Brinson should be up fairly early, so the big question is whether there will be an injury allowing him to step in, or if he just takes someone's spot. Broxton and Santana are both talented, but either one could sit when Brinson's ready.

 

Pitching will be the reason we're not in the playoff picture. Hader should be in the opening day rotation, or at the very least brought up pretty quickly. Ortiz is still young, but could very well see the majors next year. Hopefully Peralta has "found it," and his recent play continues, and hopefully Nelson can take the next step and become a solid #2 starter.

 

I think the foundation's laid, 2017 will be a year when more good prospects hit the MLB roster and we get a better read on some players, and it will lead to us hitting the FA market and being competitive again in 2018.

[Devinep]

Tossing .380 OBP guys away in their age 26 seasons...........nope.

 

The problem with this part is, is he a .380 OBP guy going forward? His BABIP this year is .401. His career is .357. If his BABIP drops to .360, what's his average and OBP going to look like? It will still be decent but not the .300/380 he's putting up this year. Add in the less than ideal defense and you're just not getting a super valuable player. I'd like to see them shop him before other teams find that out and hope some team overpays for what he did this year.

 

His high BABIP, along with giving away the most freebies to other teams in baseball (leads MLB in errors and dumb base running outs) means it may be selling high based on his high OBP this year

[SandyTolan]

Great thread.

 

OK so I'm going to cheat slightly and say what I think the Brewers 25-man might look like on July 1 2017. This scenario is based on the idea that Stearns & Co are going to want to have some of their pitching prospects skip Colorado Springs. It also assumes a Braun trade (possibly for Puig + in a matter of hours) and Gennett and Thornburg trades.

 

SP:

Guerra

Davies

Hader

Ortiz

Wilkerson

 

Batting order:

 

Villar 2B

Broxton CF

Perez 3B

Puig RF

Carter 1B

Brinson LF

Arcia SS

Susac C

 

Bullpen:

 

Wily Peralta (closer)

Knebel (setup)

Torres

Rowen

Barnes

Magnifico

Jungman (long relief)

 

Bench:

Santana (supersub in LF/RF/1B, with Broxton sitting some and Brinson moving to CF - in this scenario Santana plays maybe 2/3 of the time)

Piña

Wren

Rivera

Rule 5 OBP Monster, experiment #2

[clancyphile]

I don't have time right now to do this topic justice, but Clancy, I just want to say that's a great post, extremely thoughtful, and I agree with most of it. I've long advocated moving Braun to 1b, but Santana may be the better fit there. I'm hoping Brinson is ready soonish; I can't share your faith in Cooper. I'd rather throw Reed out there as a stopgap. At this point I'm also leaning toward Villar 2b / Perez 3b, but I've heard good arguments for both configurations. I think you're right that the rotation next year will be a mess and a proving ground. That's been by far the biggest problem this year. We need to look at everyone with a pulse to try to identify more guys who can at least keep the team in the game.

 

Thanks.

 

Just a few thoughts:

1. Braun, I intend to keep around. I see Santana as a trade chip - as there are younger OF options.

2. Cooper is, I think, an unheralded talent, and looks like a right-handed Overbay. In any case, Reed's more a 4th OF type, and I'd rather use him to rest everyone else.

3. I'll stick Villar at third, Perez at second for now. Then again, they can play any infield position other than 1B. So... six of one, half a dozen of another.

4. I don't see the rush for Brinson in 2017. Give him a full year at AAA. Rushing him could be a mistake. In fact, I'm not happy that Arcia was brought up this season. With the performance of Villar, Gennett. and Perez, there was no need to do so.

[logan82]

No to Braun at 1B. You all should know better and why. Just stop.

[FVBrewerFan]

I will get to the pen and position players. But for now my August, 2017 rotation:

 

DeLeon

Hader

Nelson

Davies

Peralta

[MNBrew]

Regarding outrighting of players, they have to be DFA before being outrighted to the minors.

I might be wrong, but I believe the rule's something like this: If it's a guy's 1st outright assignment within his first few years in the bigs, he has no choice to accept it.

 

Middlebrooks was just outrighted after being activated from a minor-league rehab assignment. He may have needed to clear waivers first, but usually when someone's DFA'd, the news is well-leaked. There was no trace of that today.

[And That]

A player with less than 3 years MLB service cannot refuse their first outright assignment. After the first outright and/or accrual of 3 years MLB service, any outright assignment can be refused, and the contract voided.

[1992casey]

Regarding outrighting of players, they have to be DFA before being outrighted to the minors.

They don't have to be designated for assignment. But they do have to clear outright waivers, which are irrevocable.

 

DFA is simply a way for a team to remove a player from the roster while it figures out what to do with him.

[djoctagone]

Regarding outrighting of players, they have to be DFA before being outrighted to the minors.

They don't have to be designated for assignment. But they do have to clear outright waivers, which are irrevocable.

 

DFA is simply a way for a team to remove a player from the roster while it figures out what to do with him.

an outright assignment to the minors after clearing waivers is one of a team's options when designating a player for assignment. the other options are trading or releasing that player. teams have ten days after dfa-ing a player to make that choice, which is why you often see players outrighted later, because the team wants to explore all trading options.

 

in the case of middlebrooks, as a courtesy, the brewers likely chose to try to outright him (which meant that any other team could've claimed him first and added him to their major league roster). that obviously didn't happen, hence the outright assignment.

[jackailius]

My Hopes for trades:

 

Trades that should happen because current value is likely higher than ever and likely won't be here longterm:

Carter

Thornberg

 

Trade or Cut

Garza

 

Trades to do if you get your price

Braun- Be willing to eat money if you get one top shelf prospect & many lower level prospects

Gennett

Villar

Maldonado

Davies

Torres

 

Trade if you like the scenario but likely at low value right now

Nelson

Peralta

Anderson

 

2017 is a year I really think they should go off the grid a bit with pitching. We don't have an ace and tend to see a lot of pitchers come through that are good but not great. I would like to see an approach where we give 4 innings every 4 days to pitchers so our "starters" would be paired up with another pitcher to take care of 8 of 9 innings combined. We would then have a 4 man bullpen for the 9th, injuries during game, a batting substitution in a big spot for the pitcher or extra innings.

This is kinda what I would like to see for 2017:

 

4 Innings Every 4 Days

Day 1 Nelson & Suter

Day 2 Davies & Hader

Day 3 Peralta & Woodruff

Day 4 Guerra & Anderson

 

Bullpen

Knebel

Barnes

Cravy

Torres

 

Batting Order

3B Villar

2B Gennett

LF Braun

RF Broxton

1B Santana

CF Brinson

SS Arcia

C Maldonado

 

Bench

Super Util Perez

SS/2B/3B Rivera

OF Wren

OF Reed

C Susac

 

• To me 2017 is going to be aweful. Possibly worse than 2016.

• I want to see more movement of TMs around, balancing days off to stay fresh and riding hot streaks as well as balanced time played for all TMs so they get honest looks.

• I would like to see Perez moved around and playing 3 our of every 4 or 5 games.

• The 4 innings every 4 days will be a tough change for the staff. It would likely be easier if we could trade Nelson and Peralta before season but based on 2016 stats I just can't see it. The 4 inning idea will flounder immensely in its 1st year because it will take time for the pitchers to buy into it. It will also degrade trade values for some but again I really think based on the fact that we may never have a Kershaw and never be able to retain those players even if we did draft/trade for one, maximizing our pitching staffs value/ability for shorter points in the games will be huge. Hopefully by the real waive of future pitching staff members (2019/2020) we will look something more like this:

 

2019/2020 Predictions/Hopes

Pitching Staff 4 innings every 4 days:

Day 1 Ortiz & Kirby

Day 2 Lopez & Suter

Day 3 Woodruff & Hader

Day 4 Bickford & Wang

 

Bullpen

Knebel

Magnifico

Scahill

Barrios

 

You will notice a nice balance of Righties and lefties in the rotation. I have a lefty following a righty each day because we have a 3 righties in the pen to follow the lefty to finish the game.

 

Our lineup looks a lot better and more balanced as well:

SS Arcia

2B Diaz

3B Perez

1B Santana

LF Phillips

CF Brinson

RF Ray

C Susac

 

BENCH

C/1B Nottingham

1B/3B Erceb

Util IF Rivera

OF Liriano

OF Clark

 

I like our chances in 2020! Likely there will be some changes. I don't know what would come back in random trades and of course this doesn't take into consideration any free agent signings. The other thing that I like is that even though several of the above current prospects and players may fizzle, there is a nice group of role players behind them to fill in and not have too far of a drop- players like Harrison, Gatewood, Diplan, F Peralta, Ponce, Williams, Medeiros, Taylor, Lara, Fliciano and McClanahan.

[JohnBriggs12]

You look at this roster, and there's absolutely no reason they can't be in the wild card mix in 2017 with improvement from the starting pitching and better balance in the lineup. The lineup is so heavily RH and that makes them vulnerable to quality RH pitching. They desperately need to find some LH sock somewhere and it's not like they don't have pieces to deal or money to spend on a relatively inexpensive short term FA. Obviously the longer range 2-4 year goal is to be competitive for division championships, a tall order in a division with the Cubs, but the emergence of a fairly young core this year and with others on cusp of the majors, why not at least make an attempt at turning this into an 86-88 win team in 2017 if they can do so without jeopardizing the long term outlook.

 

Where will the necessary improved starting pitching come from? Most will have to be internal, either from bounce backs by guys who've underperformed or influx of rookies starting with Hader with the stuff to get major league hitters out. A full year out of Guerra will help. Nelson's issues are between the ears. If he gets himself straightened out he's still a mid rotation piece. Peralta's last month has been encouraging. Davies should continue to be reliable as a 3-4 type.

[MrTPlush]

If you think this team could be in the wild card race you are sipping on some good stuff. Not saying it can't happen...but incredibly unlikely. We would need shocking performances in the rotation and guys like Santana/Arcia would need to perform very well. Too many holes on offense right now and outside of Braun not much stability anywhere. Then we would need to get shocking performance out of our starting rotation. With the offense we look to have two guys would have to be ace-like and the other three very good.

 

They are going to try and win as many games as they can next year, but the team just isn't there yet. 2018 may be a year where a couple things fall our way and we find ourselves above .500. However 2017 we would need a maricle.

[homer]

According to Fangraphs, Villar's line drive % and balls hit hard % are both up this year. this explains the rise in slugging most likely. I doubt he drops too much even with a fall in BABIP. And with his speed he'll probably be a relatively high BABIP guy anyway simply by beating out infield hits.

[Greenleaf1]

Has anyone ever looked to see if there is a relationship between high walk rates and high hard-hit-%/BABIP?

 

I would think if a player has an advanced knowledge of the strike zone, they're going to be swinging at better pitches, making better contact, and potentially having higher BABIP's over the course of a career.

 

Villar/Broxton don't seem like prime candidates for too much regression based on their patience at the plate. Villar has been the very model of consistency all year, going between .295 and .305 pretty much the entire year.

 

If (and this is a HUGE if) we can expect similar levels of production over an entire season next year from most of the regulars, I don't see our hitting as the problem next year, especially if we see players like Santana/Arcia/Perez continue to make improvements (plus the inevitable addition of Brinson in early summer). I even think our bullpen will be very strong next year, especially if Blazek/Knebel can stay healthy and finally find some consistency to go along with their talent.

 

The rotation is the huge issue right now. They've shown massive improvements lately, especially compared to how we started the year, but can Garza/Anderson/Peralta finish the season strong and carry over their recent improvements to next year? Can Nelson regain what he had earlier this season, and if he can't, are we willing to send him down and try out somebody else?

 

We have 6 pitchers fighting for 5 spots, and that's before you even get to the minor leaguers banging on the door. It'll be interesting to see how the rotation is handled next year and how quickly we're willing to get rid of the current guys in favor of giving new guys a chance.

 

I'd honestly be surprised if the 6 pitchers in the current rotation are all Brewers by OD 2017. I think Guerra makes the most sense to trade, but I also think that getting something for Anderson wouldn't be the worst idea if a good opportunity came up, otherwise he seems destined to be the long man in our bullpen in a few years at best.

[brewmann04]

I hope Willy and Garza continue to pitch well down the stretch and it will only increase their Value.

I think Villar stays either at 3rd or 2nd base home run pop and the ability to steal bases.

[gregmag]

You look at this roster, and there's absolutely no reason they can't be in the wild card mix in 2017 with improvement from the starting pitching and better balance in the lineup. The lineup is so heavily RH and that makes them vulnerable to quality RH pitching. They desperately need to find some LH sock somewhere and it's not like they don't have pieces to deal or money to spend on a relatively inexpensive short term FA. Obviously the longer range 2-4 year goal is to be competitive for division championships, a tall order in a division with the Cubs, but the emergence of a fairly young core this year and with others on cusp of the majors, why not at least make an attempt at turning this into an 86-88 win team in 2017 if they can do so without jeopardizing the long term outlook.

 

Where will the necessary improved starting pitching come from? Most will have to be internal, either from bounce backs by guys who've underperformed or influx of rookies starting with Hader with the stuff to get major league hitters out. A full year out of Guerra will help. Nelson's issues are between the ears. If he gets himself straightened out he's still a mid rotation piece. Peralta's last month has been encouraging. Davies should continue to be reliable as a 3-4 type.

What I like about this -- well, it's a good analysis on its own terms, but what I really like about it is that I don't agree with your optimism, and it really doesn't matter. You've made a thoughtful "win now" argument, and your prescription is build from within and maybe add a cheap LH bat in free agency. I'm a "win later" guy, I don't believe winning now is an option, and my prescription doesn't differ much. We might quibble about which LH bat(s) to add, especially if they might block or supplant young guys that I liked better than you, but that's just conjecture.

 

It used to be that "win now" arguments were all about breaking the bank to sign (inevitably second-tier) free agents and trading youth for experience. I think we've gotten to a point, with baseball analysis generally and the Brewers' present situation in particular, where nobody really wants to do that. Having a broad young talent base changes the ground of strategic arguments. Now it's all about which of the young guys different people like better and how soon we think they can help.

[FVBrewerFan]

You look at this roster, and there's absolutely no reason they can't be in the wild card mix in 2017 with improvement from the starting pitching and better balance in the lineup.

 

So if they have better pitching and hitting, they'll be a better team? Hard to argue against that!

 

Look, I can't say you're wrong, and you have a right to your optimism. I just don't agree. Remember, with Jeffress and Smith gone, it will be difficult (at best) for the bullpen to be as good as it was this season. Rotation can certainly be better, but not good enough to compete for WC even if everything goes right.

 

Finally, as proven in another thread having a LH power bat would be nice, but it's not as important as you think it is. For example, having a productive Santana and Brinson in the OF would make a world of difference compared to the Flores, Kirk, and half a horrible season of Broxton in the OF. See, they are all RH, but much better results.

 

Even with Lucroy gone, I can see them putting up more runs in 2017. Mostly because of the pathetic output from the OF for most of this season, and the game of musical chairs at 3B for half a season.

[monty57]

If you think this team could be in the wild card race you are sipping on some good stuff.

 

The Brewers are on pace for 72 wins this year (halfway between the dreaded 100 loss vs .500 record debate prior to the season). St. Louis currently holds the second wild card spot, on pace for 86 wins.

 

I think that if we hold onto Braun, we should be better next year, probably pushing .500. I think the push to the Wild Card race should target 2018. It would be asking a lot to add 14 wins from this year to next, especially with no real big name we could pick up via free agency to add a lot of wins. Probably best served to let Hader and Ortiz work into the rotation and Brinson into CF in 2017. If they pan out, we could have a fairly strong base going into 2018, and a FA acquisition or two could put us in the playoff picture.

 

Now, if we trade Braun, which very well could happen this offseason, then we'll have to see how things shake out. It will be interesting to see how the Brewers play things this offseason.

[Bombers]

I home management doesn't think they have a window again so I would not be looking at 2017 as a possibility. My reason. Well, the main one: The Brewers do not have any frontline starters. None. Zero. Zilch. They have some "potential" frontline starters with Hader, Bickford, and Ortiz. But none today. And none at start of next year. Hader has pitched 126 innings this year. Bickford 120. Ortiz 90. Really hard to see how any of those 3 will pitch for the whole year in 2017 without their arm falling off.

 

My opinion is to continue to draft, develop and acquire minor leaguers until we end up with a front end of our rotation that is actually really good. I am just not on board with a Peralta, Nelson, etc to be the "ace" of staff. And until that gets corrected, count me on the side that says keep looking to the future - our time is not now.

[MrTPlush]

Another thing to note when looking at next year overall there may be some possible improvements, but there are also a ton of question marks. Will a bullpen of no names pitch this well next year? Can Thornburg specifically be this good every year? Will Braun keep up this production and fairly good health? Villar/Broxton/Perez doomed for regression? Is there any reliable piece in our rotation? Will Guerra even be useful next year?

 

In my opinion it is pretty hard to improve more than 5-7 wins on the year prior when you are depending on rookies and inexperienced returners. Teams that are improving by 10+ games a year already have a solid core in place and/or are adding proven players to the mix not rookies.

[tmwiese55]

I think next year will be worse and will be our bottom. For all the possible positives you have to remember you won't have the second best catch in the league for 100 games, and missing two very good relievers for 100 games. Some likely regression from Villar. Throw in an injury to Braun and you're in serious trouble. The last few games from Peralta certainly bring some optimism for a stable starter but still at this point there is virtually nothing you can bank on as better than a 4/5 starter type. With Braun healthy the offense is at least competent, but we simply have no starters to rely on at this point.

[monty57]

We gave 998 PAs this year to players with an OPS .650 or under who are not pitchers and we still had a decent offense. Arcia is one of those, and hopefully he would improve next year. If we can replace most of the rest with PAs from guys like Santana and Perez instead of Flores and Walsh, that could make a big difference. Even without Lucroy, I think out offense will be passable.

 

Obviously the pitching is the big question mark and the reason we will not be a playoff team. We will probably start with basically what we're throwing out there now, and that's not good enough. However, guys like Hader and Ortiz, maybe Lopez if CS didn't destroy him, can hit the MLB rotation and "get their feet wet." Hopefully at this time next year we will be looking at a much more promising rotation going into 2018. Maybe there are growing pains and it takes a little longer, but the foundation is being laid, and we have a lot of talent on the horizon to go along with a boatload of free cash flow to allocate when the time is right.