The 2017 Brewers... What is Your View?

[clancyphile]

Just saw this from BrewCrewFever.com - two visions of the Brewers in 2017

http://brewcrewfever.com/2016/08/25/551/

 

What would your plans for the 2017 Brewers be? Short-term (that season), medium-term (the next two-three seasons), and long-term (2020 and beyond)?

 

Who's on the 25-man roster? Who do you shoot for in free agency (if anyone)? Rule V picks? Who do you try to trade?

 

I'll kick it off:

 

3b: Villar - leadoff hitter and has earned a spot in long-term plans

2b: Perez - Boomeranged back onto the major-league roster after becoming a free-agent over the off-season

1b: Braun - The many outfield prospects seem to be an indication to move someone to first.

cf: Broxton - Looks like he was a steal in the Rogers trade

rf: Santana - 2017 is a big test to see if he's for real or not

lf: Cooper - I think he has little left to prove at AAA - time to see what he brings to the table in the majors.

c: Pina - Could be a decent stopgap until Nottingham is ready

ss: Arcia - Needs the bat to really come around.

[pitcher spot]

 

bench:

Susac - Will be the Brewers #2 catcher

Rivera - Backs up IF positions

Pinto - Not only adds a third catcher, but backs up 1B as well

Reed - Need to clear room in AAA for Phillips

Orf - Very good OBP skills and OK bat, plus versatile

 

rotation

Nelson - Best starter on the team

Peralta - Looks to have straightened out, could be a huge trade piece if he does well in the 1st half

Davies - Ran otu of gas in (almost) first full season in majors

Guerra - The find of 2016 should be a "sell high" option if he does well in the first half

Suter - 2017 is the year to see if he can be starter or a versatile arm out of the pen

 

bullpen

Thornberg - New closer

Torres - 8th inning guy

Knebel - 7th inning guy

Marinez - middle-relief

Blazek - middle-relief

Jungmann - long-relief

Cravy - long-relief

 

TRADE BAIT:

2B Scooter Gennett - Perez needs to start and is a better bat. Gennett's improvement should fetch something

1B Chris Carter - Power bat is great, but need for openings in OF warrants a deal

C Maldonado - Can't afford poor bat without Lucroy as the #1 C

RHP Chase Anderson - Not the best, but just see better options

 

FREE AGENT SIGNINGS:

None - I want to go in-house and see who can do what in 2017. Won't pass up a steal, but in 2017, that money's better spent on scouting and player development

 

SHORT-TERM GOALS:

1. Determine the progress on the rebuild and figure out if/where some players will contribute.

- Is Suter a starter or reliever?

- Can Santana stay healthy and contribute over a 162-game season

- Can Garrett Cooper play in the majors, and if so, where?

- Can Reed be a 4th outfielder?

2. Flip Peralta for prospects

3. See if Rymer Liriano can rebound from horrific injury (he plays in AAA)

4. Settle Braun at first base

 

MEDIUM-TERM GOALS:

Over .500 by 2019

Gain a long-term outfield of Phillips, Brinson, and Broxton

Move Santana and other players displaced by younger prospects

 

LONG-TERM GOALS

Playoffs in 2020

Fresh talent throughout farm system

Find new "face of franchise" to replace Braun

[mrn1ceguy]

Here is my "stand pat / conservative" option. Despite that, the current 40 man roster (actually 44) will be gutted either by trades, cuts, or FA departures.

 

FA departures or cuts:

-Garin Cecchini

-Jake Elmore

-Will Middlebrooks

-Andy Wilkins

-Yhonathan Barrios (DFA to AAA)

-Blaine Boyer

-Chris Capuano

-David Gorfroth (DFA to AAA)

-Adrian Houser (DFA to AAA)

-Jhan Marinez

-Sean Nolin

-Ben Rowen

-Rob Scahill

 

Trades

-Matt Garza (Brewers send cash, get basically nothing)

-Scooter Gennett (trade for either a Keon Broxton ready to shine person or some Freddy Peralta type lottery ticket)

-Martin Maldenado (trade for a Freddy Peralta type lottery ticket)

 

Current 40-man now at 29.

 

Minor league FA / Rule 5 additions:

-Lewis Brinson

-Garrett Cooper

-Josh Hader

-Nate Orf

-Wei-Chung Wang

-Kyle Wren

-Clint Coulter

-Victor Roache

-Brett Philips

-Tyrone Taylor

 

Current 40-man now at 39 so we can either sign, claim, or resign someone.

 

With this batch, here's my 25 man roster.

 

C: Susac

1B: Carter

2B: Villar

SS: Arcia

3B: Perez

LF: Braun

CF: Broxton

RF: Santana

Bench: Pina, Rivera, Orf, Nieuwenhuis, Liriano

 

SP1: Nelson

SP2: Guerra

SP3: Davies

SP4: Peralta

SP5: Anderson

 

Closer: Thornburg

8th: Knebel

7th: Torres

Loogy: Sutter

RP: Cravy, Barnes, Blazek

 

 

This is not a competitive roster, but it ready for the young prospects (Brinson, Hader) in June, recovered prospect who find their way (Lopez, Jungmann), next man up (Magnifico, Wren, Reed, Cooper) or unexpected surge (Phillips, Wang). Come 2018 with a big FA signing to 1B and/or 3B and they could be ready to compete.

[MNBrew]

I'm not sure how to tackle the years beyond 2017 -- too many variables.

 

Disclaimer: This is a pretty off-the-cuff response. I may feel very differently a month from now.

 

(Note on the post immediately above: Zack Jones was returned to the Twins a while ago.)

 

C: Pina/Susac

1B: Carter

2B: Perez

SS: Arcia

3B: Villar

LF: Braun

CF: Broxton

RF: Santana

Bench: Susac/Pina, Rivera, Nieuwenhuis or an equivalent quasi-"proven" guy (hopefully not KN), and two others (maybe Wren or Reed & a waiver claim)

 

Rotation: *Garza, Davies, Peralta, Guerra, Nelson

SP or RP: Jungmann, Suter, Cravy

Bullpen: Thornburg, Knebel, Torres, Marinez, Barnes, & Magnifico/Burgos/Wang

 

* I know that's 26, but I'd hope Garza's gone & either Cravy, Magnifico, Wang, or Burgos earns that spot. I'd also love Hader to push his way into the picture, but any of a number of prospects could do that including Jorge Lopez.

 

Potentially/hopefully moved:

Blaine Boyer (hopefully in the next day or two, & he's a FA anyway)

Gennett

Garza

Maldonado

Anderson

 

I get the logic of Barrios & Houser getting outrighted to AAA since they've missed mcuh/all of this year (DFA not necessary on either, I don't think, since it would be each's first outright assignment). I don't think Rymer Liriano is on the MLB roster after a full year of not playing, plus hardly playing in the bigs before -- sure, he's out of options, but no one's going to guarantee him a 40-man spot over the winter.

 

Obviously a zillion things could impact this, and none of this considers the return in any possible trades, either. Still, it's been a losing year and thinking ahead is at least kind of fun.

[Outlander]

Regarding outrighting of players, they have to be DFA before being outrighted to the minors. I do think that happens to a number of players this off season including Houser, Liriano, Barrios and Nolin. Probably Goforth as well unless Stearns has seen enough of him and just lets him go.

[mrn1ceguy]

 

(Note on the post immediately above: Zack Jones was returned to the Twins a while ago.)

 

.

 

Thank you, corrected.

[JohnBriggs12]

Gambling that Villar is any better defensively at 2B, than he is at 3B or SS, is foolhardy. He's played less there as a pro than he has at 3B. If you don't trade him, then trade Carter, who'll bring back a lot more than Gennett, and put Villar at 1B. You just can't hide him anywhere else so you need to think out of the box. At least at 1B, he won't be throwing the ball all over the yard.

 

The roster has to be adjusted to add a power LH bat from somewhere. Nieuwenhuis just doesn't quite cut it in that role. Whether that comes from dealing Carter or a low profile FA is the question. Santana is another guy who could be packaged in a deal.

 

I'd like to believe they'll cut/trade Garza, but the only way he's dealt is if he's part of a package and Brewers pay 75% of his salary. Nelson figures to be traded. There's still teams out there that will see value there. Anderson is far from a rotation lock or even a roster spot in 2017. He needs a good September. That will leave spots open for competition between Hader, Wang, Jungmann, Burgos (who I see added to 40 man and not guys like Orf and Roache), and Suter. Hader is the favorite.

[pacopete4]

Gambling that Villar is any better defensively at 2B, than he is at 3B or SS, is foolhardy. He's played less there as a pro than he has at 3B. If you don't trade him, then trade Carter, who'll bring back a lot more than Gennett, and put Villar at 1B. You just can't hide him anywhere else so you need to think out of the box. At least at 1B, he won't be throwing the ball all over the yard.

 

 

I like that you think outside the box as it brings in new, sometimes a little crazy, ideas. And I mean that with no disrespect. I just don't see a move to first base at the age of 25 when he has shows more athletic ability than most. I am in the camp of moving Gennett and allowing Villar to focus solely on playing second base. No reps anywhere else but at 2B. I think that part of his problem defensively has been he's been moved around so much and never had a chance to settle in anywhere. I don't think 3B is the best option for him and feel that getting him at 2B shortens that throw but still allows him to use his range up the middle like a shortstop.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Getting rid of Villar at this point doesn't make a lot of sense unless you get an absolute haul for him in prospects or a front-line pitcher at the MLB level (which isn't likely). His small sample stats at 3B aren't good, but 20 games isn't enough to draw any meaningful conclusions from. 3B may not be his final destination anyways, and if throwing is his problem, 2B may be the cure for that.

 

Tossing .380 OBP guys away in their age 26 seasons...........nope.

 

Likewise with Carter, I'd prefer to hang onto the guy and let him mash and take walks for another year unless someone comes calling with a good offer. He's not likely to break the bank in Arby's, but if the right offer comes along, sure, move him for some young controllable pieces.

 

Nelson just isn't taking that step forward to a frontline rotation man. If an offer comes along, take it.

[clancyphile]

Gambling that Villar is any better defensively at 2B, than he is at 3B or SS, is foolhardy. He's played less there as a pro than he has at 3B. If you don't trade him, then trade Carter, who'll bring back a lot more than Gennett, and put Villar at 1B. You just can't hide him anywhere else so you need to think out of the box. At least at 1B, he won't be throwing the ball all over the yard.

 

Given the OBP skills, speed, and the bat... I'll take that shot right now. One of the more exciting players on the roster.

 

The roster has to be adjusted to add a power LH bat from somewhere. Nieuwenhuis just doesn't quite cut it in that role. Whether that comes from dealing Carter or a low profile FA is the question. Santana is another guy who could be packaged in a deal.

 

Nieuwenhuis is a back-of-the bench 5th OF type, IMO. The problem is Counsell plays him so much. To be honest, Reed/Wren/etc. may be a better option, if only because they are less likely to block Broxton.

 

I'd like to believe they'll cut/trade Garza, but the only way he's dealt is if he's part of a package and Brewers pay 75% of his salary. Nelson figures to be traded. There's still teams out there that will see value there. Anderson is far from a rotation lock or even a roster spot in 2017. He needs a good September. That will leave spots open for competition between Hader, Wang, Jungmann, Burgos (who I see added to 40 man and not guys like Orf and Roache), and Suter. Hader is the favorite.

 

I think 2017 is the year of throwing starters to the rotation and seeing who can rebound enough to bring a haul, who can become a contributor, and who can maximize their value.

 

Guerra is a sell-high, especially if his first half of 2017 is very good. If Peralta's straightened out, he might be a good trade chip as well. Nelson, I'll move if I get blown away by an offer.

[Boomer5]

Id go young across the board either with our guys at here and in AAA or waiver pick ups and see what we can do with them. We have traded all of our easy chips with Braun being the only guy in Milwaukee who might be interesting to other teams depending on their tolerance to his contract.

 

If there is another bullpen gold rush like summer 2016, well then obviously that needs to be explored heavily.

 

Villar should stay, probably at 3B and just work on his issues throughout the year. He isn't a SS, and Scooter is an adequate 2B and there isnt much point to trading Scooter in terms of what we would get back. Might as well let him play since he isn't blocking anyone.

 

I would absolutely sign no MLB free agents unless they are Chris Carter bargain bins.

 

I am expecting our OF to be Braun/Brinson/Broxton. Our IF to be Villar/Arcia/Scooter/Carter resign. Perez is our Zobrist. Our catcher doesnt matter, but some combination of Maldy/Pina/Susac

 

Rotation: Davies/Nelson/Peralta/Garza/Junior/Hader/Anderson/Jungmann I am really not bullish on Junior as Im very suspicious of 31 year olds that all of a sudden find it, throw way harder than before, then get hurt.

 

The bullpen will be rotated a bit and if the sellers market insanity of the 2016 trading season is still there, I expect most of our guys to be gone by 2017, at least I hope so.

[gregmag]

I don't have time right now to do this topic justice, but Clancy, I just want to say that's a great post, extremely thoughtful, and I agree with most of it. I've long advocated moving Braun to 1b, but Santana may be the better fit there. I'm hoping Brinson is ready soonish; I can't share your faith in Cooper. I'd rather throw Reed out there as a stopgap. At this point I'm also leaning toward Villar 2b / Perez 3b, but I've heard good arguments for both configurations. I think you're right that the rotation next year will be a mess and a proving ground. That's been by far the biggest problem this year. We need to look at everyone with a pulse to try to identify more guys who can at least keep the team in the game.

[Greenleaf1]

Offseason Trades: Gennett, Maldonado, Garza (someone would take him if we pay most of his salary for one year right?), Nieuwenhuis, Guerra (if he has a good September), Torres, Carter

Midseason 2017 Trades: Thornburg, Braun (if his success continues), Nelson/Peralta (if they can rebound)

 

Let Susac/Pina duke it out for catcher, give Pinto and a few cheap pickups a chance at 1B, waiver claims for 2B, Arcia at SS, Villar at 3B, Braun in LF, get some cheap options from AAA or waivers for CF/RF, hoping that Broxton/Brinson/Santana can group up to handle those two spots. Perez should continue to be super utility, maybe playing mostly at 2B.

 

Rotation: Davies should stick around, Anderson can stick around for now, let Suter/Hader get their shot, and maybe Burgos if we can resign him. Need to leave room in the rotation for rookies in 2017 to see what they have (Hader for sure, maybe Woodruff by the end of 2017).

[brewmann04]

This team really need 2 legit starters to compete

[reillymcshane]

Crazy to do this now, but it's fun. Next season's team on Opening Day:

 

C - Maldonado, one of Susac/Pina

1B - Carter

2B - Scooter

SS - Arcia

3B - Villar

INF/OF - Perez

LF - Braun

CF - Broxton

RF - Santana

OF - 2 of Reed/Wren/Nieuwenhuis

INF - Rivera or someone like an Elmore

 

SP - Nelson, Davies, Guerra, Peralta, Anderson, Wilkerson or Jungmann waiting in the wings for Peralta or Anderson to falter

RP - Torres, Thornburg, Knebel, Suter, Magnifico, Barnes, Marinez, lefty arm (Scahili?)

 

Garza will be let go.

 

This roster will change a lot as the season goes along.

[MKE81]

2017 season is to get some young guys ready for the future and experiment in the process. 2018/2019 is where all the big prospects will be up by.

 

2017, using the players currently in the org, I'd have an infield consisting of Carter, Villar, Arcia, 3b (stop gap cheap veteran free agent OR Cecchini/Perez) with Rivera as backup as well given his versatility. Perez can backup 1b when Carter gets a break. OF of Braun, Broxton, Santana. With Broxton flashing, Brinson almost ready and Phillips up the following year this is Santana's only time to show if he's part of the future or not so he needs 500+ AB if healthy. Even if Brinson is up you still have Broxton as 4th OF or trade bait and I'd strongly look at Reed/Wren as another backup OF while dropping Kirk. C should be 2 of Maldy, Pina, Susac. I'm partial to more offensive catchers than defensive unless the defensive guy is extremely strong at controlling the run game.

 

Nelson, Hader, Davies, Peralta, Chase, Guerra, Garza and potentially Lopez, Jungmann as main guys for the rotation. Hader needs to be in the rotation if progresses during Spring. If you get enough in a trade to part with Garza, Nelson, Peralta, Chase you take it. Jungmann, Suter can fill in (Suter potentially in the pen too). The rotation is a work in progress for 2017 as the following 1-2 years you're looking at Hader, Ortiz, Davies, Woodruff, Bickford, etc etc not to mention anyone acquired via trade or free agency depending how things change moving forward. But 2017 is experimental and a work in progress. The pen should have Barnces, Magnifico, Knebel, Thornburg for sure. Suter I'm fine with as a lefty plus can eat up multiple innings (he's not a main stay rotation guy). Add a lefty and round it out with someone else. Torres has been solid so no problem keeping him.

 

I'd trade Scooter only if you get a good offer. There's absolutely no way Villar, or anyone else in this IF, should be playing 1b full-time other than Carter. And until there's 3OF that are ready to take over the Of spots there's nobody else good enough to push Braun or Santana to 1b anyway. It's easier for a SS (Villar) to transition to 2b than 3b. You're still covering ground, playing up the middle so somewhat similar read off the bat, turning DPs. 3b is straight reactionary and a completely different viewpoint and angle off the bat. Villar's skill set is built more for 2b. And he should be part of the future until Diaz is ready or until you receive a trade offer you can't refuse.

 

A power LH bat isn't needed. Nice to have if can contribute but not required unless that person is going to be here for 4 years. Within 2 years after next season you're potentially adding Brinson, Phillips, Ray, Diaz to the lineup (3 lefties with pop).

[Bombers]

I don't have time right now to do this topic justice, but Clancy, I just want to say that's a great post, extremely thoughtful, and I agree with most of it. I've long advocated moving Braun to 1b, but Santana may be the better fit there. I'm hoping Brinson is ready soonish; I can't share your faith in Cooper. I'd rather throw Reed out there as a stopgap. At this point I'm also leaning toward Villar 2b / Perez 3b, but I've heard good arguments for both configurations. I think you're right that the rotation next year will be a mess and a proving ground. That's been by far the biggest problem this year. We need to look at everyone with a pulse to try to identify more guys who can at least keep the team in the game.

We have discussed the Braun to 1B before. Some are for it, some are definitely against it. I am for it and always have been.

viewtopic.php?f=63&t=30772&hilit=braun+1b

 

As we look around the OF and IF we start to see some semblance of a real team that could be setup for 2018. I like Villar and would lean strongly towards keeping him around. I agree with those who think there will be more moves to clear paths like last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Scooter moved like Davis was. I wouldn't be surprised to see Maldy moved or Nelson. In the end, the issue with the Brewers is front line pitching. We can continue building for the future, but the Brewers need some real improvement in their frontline pitching. (I am excited for Hader, Ortiz, Bickford, but we need to continue to stockpile those pitching assets)

[trwi7]

Tossing .380 OBP guys away in their age 26 seasons...........nope.

 

The problem with this part is, is he a .380 OBP guy going forward? His BABIP this year is .401. His career is .357. If his BABIP drops to .360, what's his average and OBP going to look like? It will still be decent but not the .300/380 he's putting up this year. Add in the less than ideal defense and you're just not getting a super valuable player. I'd like to see them shop him before other teams find that out and hope some team overpays for what he did this year.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Tossing .380 OBP guys away in their age 26 seasons...........nope.

 

The problem with this part is, is he a .380 OBP guy going forward? His BABIP this year is .401. His career is .357. If his BABIP drops to .360, what's his average and OBP going to look like? It will still be decent but not the .300/380 he's putting up this year. Add in the less than ideal defense and you're just not getting a super valuable player. I'd like to see them shop him before other teams find that out and hope some team overpays for what he did this year.

 

 

I keep thinking about this, and we keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, and his BA keeps hovering right around .300. Is that sustainable? I don't know. Villar makes hard contact. I don't think he's a guy that goes up to the plate "waiting for a walk", I think he's got a good batting eye, and he is selectively aggressive. He strikes out a lot, but he makes aggressive contact when he makes contact. Do I think a .400 BABIP is sustainable? I don't know, but he has a lot of doubles, has a good LD%, takes a lot of walks, and I think he may just be a 15-20 homerun guy going forward. People keep saying "that BABIP rate is not sustainable" but he keeps sustaining it. It is, until it isn't.

[Ennder]

 

 

I keep thinking about this, and we keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, and his BA keeps hovering right around .300. Is that sustainable? I don't know. Villar makes hard contact. I don't think he's a guy that goes up to the plate "waiting for a walk", I think he's got a good batting eye, and he is selectively aggressive. He strikes out a lot, but he makes aggressive contact when he makes contact. Do I think a .400 BABIP is sustainable? I don't know, but he has a lot of doubles, has a good LD%, takes a lot of walks, and I think he may just be a 15-20 homerun guy going forward. People keep saying "that BABIP rate is not sustainable" but he keeps sustaining it. It is, until it isn't.

 

 

A single season is a small sample of BABIP. It jumps around wildly year to year. There is almost no way Villar is a .290 hitter much less a .300 hitter in reality (without improving which is plausible at his age). This would be a great time to sell high on him but I think most teams realize this and aren't going to buy too high.

[Boomer5]

Tossing .380 OBP guys away in their age 26 seasons...........nope.

 

The problem with this part is, is he a .380 OBP guy going forward? His BABIP this year is .401. His career is .357. If his BABIP drops to .360, what's his average and OBP going to look like? It will still be decent but not the .300/380 he's putting up this year. Add in the less than ideal defense and you're just not getting a super valuable player. I'd like to see them shop him before other teams find that out and hope some team overpays for what he did this year.

 

Im glad someone else brought up his BABIP. Combined with his 25%+ K rate and you have a guy, who while talented, is playing WAY over his head.

 

Id still like to see him play everyday in 2017 as we dont have much to lose but Id expect a drop off.

[tmwiese55]

Still, if he comes back to Earth a bit and settles in as a 275/350 guy that's more than adequate for 2B. Heck, it will have basically been better than anything we've had post Rickie at 2B, post 2013 Ramirez at 3b, post I don't when at SS, post Yount? Hardy I guess but that's debateable (talking offense here). I think he should be moved to 2B as it should be easiest defensively where he's no wizard, and generally not having 20+ HR pop is more accepted at 2B.

[JohnBriggs12]

Gambling that Villar is any better defensively at 2B, than he is at 3B or SS, is foolhardy. He's played less there as a pro than he has at 3B. If you don't trade him, then trade Carter, who'll bring back a lot more than Gennett, and put Villar at 1B. You just can't hide him anywhere else so you need to think out of the box. At least at 1B, he won't be throwing the ball all over the yard.

 

 

I like that you think outside the box as it brings in new, sometimes a little crazy, ideas. And I mean that with no disrespect. I just don't see a move to first base at the age of 25 when he has shows more athletic ability than most. I am in the camp of moving Gennett and allowing Villar to focus solely on playing second base. No reps anywhere else but at 2B. I think that part of his problem defensively has been he's been moved around so much and never had a chance to settle in anywhere. I don't think 3B is the best option for him and feel that getting him at 2B shortens that throw but still allows him to use his range up the middle like a shortstop.

 

Villar's played a grand total of 6 major league innings at 2B, and played just 19 games there in the minor leagues (with 5 errors I might add). That's roughly 20 more games playing 2nd base in pro ball than I have. Where is everyone getting this idea that he's qualified to play 2B? You don't think he'll make errant throws pivoting to turn double plays when he's hardly ever done it? Did you watch Weeks' career? He's a defensive liability anywhere you put him. If you plan to move him, you better find some place in winter ball that will allow him to play there.

[Roderick]

I am expecting our OF to be Braun/Brinson/Broxton.

 

I don't see Brinson starting the year in the majors. He only has basically one month of AAA under his belt total.

 

My guess is that Santana/Broxton/Braun will be opening day starters.

[And That]

I've mentioned it before, but I really wish they'd move Santana to 1B and have him play there next year, whether it be in the big leagues or AAA. His outfield defense sucks, but I still believe in his bat.

 

Agreed Brinson is probably not going to be the CF out of the gate next year, and Broxton builds more value by playing there. So my opening day outfield next year, as of this moment, would be Braun/Broxton/open competition between Liriano/Perez (if he's not playing third like he should be)/Reed/Wren/scrapheap.

[pacopete4]

I think Brinson has a chance to be the opening day CF if he comes up in September and hits the ball well. Then goes on to continue hitting in spring training. They may not have a choice but to let him be the CF if he continues to hit.