Hernan Perez

[jerichoholicninja]

When did Fangraphs and Brewerfan.net merge? Another Brewer article today. They are drinking the Brewer Kool-aid over there.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chalk-up-another-brewers-buy-low-success/

 

[sarcasm]Typical Midwest media bias.[/sarcasm]

[clancyphile]

Well, not the first time the Crew "bought low" and got success.

 

Remember Scott Podsednik? Look how the Brewers flipped him for Carlos Lee after two seasons (the less said about the return for Lee, the better).

 

That may be more important than the trades. It's a "moneyball" move that a small-market team must be able to hit on a couple of times to become a real contender.

[LouisEly]

What hasn't been mentioned is that he's 27 of 31 in SBs. That would be almost 50 steals in a 600 PA season. Not just the number, but the success ratio is almost ideal (if you're 100% then you're not aggressive enough; ideal is 90% or so) And that's with a .300 OBP; if he can realistically get that up to .325 or so he could be a 60 or more SB player. That's incredible.

[Austin Tatious]

I had this sense that Perez is a competitive kid with a mental toughness about him. Sure enough, he is above .300 with RISP. You can win games with this guy, and he's only 25.

[MrTPlush]

Great speed and power coming off the bench. Hopefully he can consistently keep his numbers average or close to it. I'd imagine he will end up a super utility guy which after bringing up Arcia that's what his role pretty much has been. Probably not starter material, but a fine piece to have on your bench. Honestly he will probably play so much he will basically be a starter. People always need off days and there is always someone getting injured. Hernan Perez is the guy who gets no love on a team, but is so valuable.

[Ennder]

In a season where he performed over expectations he has still not even played at an average major league level and to be honest given the BB rate and K rate I don't see him being significantly over replacement level going forward. If we are lucky we can trade him for a 20% chance to hit prospect down the road.

[sveumrules]

Hernan is at 1.3 fWAR in 330 PAs so far this year. That projects to a league average player over a full season. If that is one of your starters, meh. If that is your super sub that can play all over the diamond it's a little more exciting.

[Ennder]

I don't really trust it in partial years and I'd rather pick it apart some to see where it comes from. He has a huge bonus in baserunning and from his position on the field. The offense isn't really doing all that much and his fielding is bad. I'm guessing him having the 9th highest Bsr in the league in a half season isn't sustainable by any means. Translated to a full season only Billy Hamilton has more value on the bases and I just don't believe that is true.

[pacopete4]

It'll be interesting to see his final stat line. He's trending down with the average as of late and all of a sudden that OBP is looking atrocious again. I agree as a super bench player that he will be perfect. Thinking he's a starter might be fools gold.

[LouisEly]

You don't have to have All-Stars at every position. The Royals and Giants have gone to, and won, the last two World Series with more than a few average players on the team. The 2014 Royals were extremely average across their starting 8 fielders, and the Giants had a number of average starters as well (Pagan, Blanco, Hudson, Vogelsong, Morse, Panik, Belt, Romo, Cain, Lincecum). You just need 3-5 All-Star caliber players and 4-6 very good players; the rest just have to be average.

 

What kills you are the Yuni B's. One of the big reasons the Royals won is because they addressed the below-average players on the team (Infante, Rios, Guthrie) with trades (Zobrist, Cueto).

[MKE81]

Perez is a strong utility player and moving forward, if this team is healthy, he won't be playing anywhere near as much as he has this year. His playing time significantly increased with the trade of Hill and the injury of Santana combined with the poor RF play. If this team is healthy next year and Scooter is still on the team then the IF is set and those guys won't be getting many days off - Scooter getting the most time off. Same with the OF if you're looking at Braun, Broxton, Santana and Brinson will be up at some point, which means Perez wouldn't be playing at all in the OF as a backup if we keep those 4 OFs plus Kirk most likely.

 

Perez is on pace for 400AB+ this year. He won't see more than 250 in a super utility role, which is fine but people shouldn't expect him to get similar PT moving forward because the opportunity won't be there unless there are trades and injuries again. If you can have a super utility be a 260/310 guy with some pop and speed then he'll play a valuable role for any team.

[Greenleaf1]

Perez will determine his own playing time in a super utility role. If he's doing well, they'll find a place for him to play. He can play anywhere in the infield plus right field and probably could try his hand at left field soon enough.

 

If he can make even more improvements next year, he could even see the majority of playing time at second base for the next year or two while we're waiting on Isan Diaz.

 

Perez's value is certainly in his versaitility though. Having someone with his good defense, base stealing ability, and pop in his bat to come off the bench 3 or 4 times a week and give guys days off and not lose too much in the lineup is incredibly valuable to a team (not to mention a great pinch hitter or double switch replacement later in games). Stearns is obviously aware of how important that versatility is.

 

Perez doesn't strike me as an every day guy when we're back to competitive level, but that doesn't mean he can't provide a lot of value to the team.

[clancyphile]

Perez will determine his own playing time in a super utility role. If he's doing well, they'll find a place for him to play. He can play anywhere in the infield plus right field and probably could try his hand at left field soon enough.

 

If he can make even more improvements next year, he could even see the majority of playing time at second base for the next year or two while we're waiting on Isan Diaz.

 

Perez's value is certainly in his versaitility though. Having someone with his good defense, base stealing ability, and pop in his bat to come off the bench 3 or 4 times a week and give guys days off and not lose too much in the lineup is incredibly valuable to a team (not to mention a great pinch hitter or double switch replacement later in games). Stearns is obviously aware of how important that versatility is.

 

Perez doesn't strike me as an every day guy when we're back to competitive level, but that doesn't mean he can't provide a lot of value to the team.

 

Agreed.

 

Plus, it isn't just Perez, there is the value provided by whoever is acquired in exchange for Scooter Gennett.

[adambr2]

A super utility player with Perez' versatility, even if he doesn't have a regular role, may be someone that plays 5 times a week anyway.

 

A player like that also might allow for us to carry a shorter bench and extra bullpen arm.

[gregmag]

I agree that right now he projects best as a super utility guy. I love the idea of having a player like that, especially when you have other guys (mainly Villar) who can also move around the diamond.

 

My one problem with discussions like this is that people tend to treat a snapshot as if it were a movie. Young players develop. Perez is 25, and he's made a leap, in conjunction with getting more playing time. That happens, and sometimes a guy like that will keep getting better. Perez has a better chance than most to keep improving, because he has a somewhat broad set of skills. He is what he is now, and certainly that's important to assess. But you can't just look at what he's doing now and say that's it; he's that player. He could regress, but right now the Brewers are in a great position to make a bet on his continued improvement.

[LouisEly]

My one problem with discussions like this is that people tend to treat a snapshot as if it were a movie.

Yep. When doing an analysis, at it's simplest there are three data sets to look at - current state, reference state, and trend. The current state is similar to reference state - major league average. (And there is nothing wrong with average - you don't need a team of All-Stars. Great teams have 3-5 All-Star caliber players, 4-6 very good players, and the rest need to be average. It's the Yuni B's that hurt you.)

 

But the trend is that he is getting better. And at 25 he has not hit his peak yet. Plenty of examples of players who still improved significantly well into age 27/28.

[JohnBriggs12]

There's a lot of selling Perez short here. His play this season has not gone unnoticed around the league and in particular the Central Division.

 

Because I live in Illinois, I often watch the opposing team's telecast. Both the Chicago and St. Louis booths commented very positively on Perez this week for both his all-around play, and his offensive ability. Both summed it up by essentially saying he's a very good player, not a very good utility player or a good bench player, but a very good player, period. Similar comments have been made by the Reds and Pirate announcers in recent weeks as well as the occasional non-division foe.

 

It's time to start looking at Perez as a core player going forward, not just a nice utility guy or a place holder until the prospect waves start. He's just 25 and controllable through 2020. Sure Detroit gave up on him, but remember Detroit thought enough of him to bring him to the majors just 2 months after he turned 21. You don't do that unless you think highly of a guy's future.

 

Perez might go down as one of the best waiver claims Doug Melvin ever made. Compare his stats and value to the much ballyhooed and slightly younger Javier Baez. Perez possess a lot of the same traits but makes more consistent contact hitting in a lineup that doesn't have the punch that the Cubs have.

[tmwiese55]

With another offseason of development focused on disciplining his plate selection we might be really onto something more than a super utility. That's really all that's missing, moving his OBP up 25-30 points by adding walks. Obviously more would be nice but a solid improvement like that is very do-able.

[MrTPlush]

Striking out in 33% of your ABs really doesn't help matters.

[reillymcshane]

Striking out in 33% of your ABs really doesn't help matters.

Perez has a 22.6% strikeout rate for 2016. His career rate is 22%.

[Greenleaf1]

Ben Zobrist has been a very good player for years. Being a super utility player won't stop Perez from being a core part of this team, it only enhances his value to us.

 

I'd much rather that we keep him moving around for now rather than try to settle him in as Gennett's replacement or something.

[pacopete4]

Some people see him as being a super sub guy as a downgrade to him and I see it as a huge positive. A guy that can move pretty much anywhere on the diamond and you are not hurt by their defense is very valuable. Especially if said player is OPS'ing above .750. If that's what Perez ends up being for this team, I will be very happy because I just don't see it as a starter on a good team. Needs to be able to get on base more or his slumps will be felt too much.

[MrTPlush]

Striking out in 33% of your ABs really doesn't help matters.

Perez has a 22.6% strikeout rate for 2016. His career rate is 22%.

 

Yup I was looking at inaccurate data.

[djoctagone]

perez is starting in center tonight. who saw that coming in spring training?

[Outlander]

So over the next 10 days all they have to do is find a spot for him to catch and pitch an inning during a blowout.