Hernan Perez

[reillymcshane]

I have to give Hernan Perez a lot of credit. He came in this year in great shape and he's faster and leaner and just improved his game tremendously. I didn't think he'd ever get into the conversation as a starting player in the big leagues - so good for him.

 

That said, I sort of hope Milwaukee gives him the 3B next year, with Villar moving to 2B and Arcia at SS. I don't feel Scooter is part of our future. He's an okay player, but he's limited both as a hitter and a fielder. I'm sure there's a team where Scooter fits in better - but I just don't know if it's Milwaukee.

 

Defensively, Perez has graded out quite good at 3B this year and in the past. I would imagine he'd be even better if he played there 140 games. I think a Villar/Arcia/Perez infield would be pretty sweet defensively.

 

If Hernan can hit .280 with 15-20 HR, he's pretty valuable. Add in the stolen bases and solid base running - even better. Not great, but good. His 4.0% walk rate is problematic, but most players have their warts. His free swinging in his issue - perhaps he can improve. Right now, he has a 1.3 fWAR - not bad for a guy who has less than 300 ABs. If he got 140 starts, he could be a solid 2.0+ WAR 3B - again, not great, but solid. Certainly better than a lot of teams can manage.

 

I'm not freaking out if Scooter is our 2B next year - I'm just looking toward the future and I think Arcia/Villar/Perez looks better than Arcia/Villar/Gennett. But the depth is awesome to have, so I understand if all those guys are still on the team. Plus there is the concern that our line up is getting very right handed, so I can see the desire to keep a lefty bat like Scooter.

 

I just love it when guys surprise me. I've kept waiting for Hernan to go into a slump or whatever, but it hasn't happened. Of course, it is only half a season or so - and so I shouldn't get too optimistic. But it's fun to consider the possibilities.

[MKE81]

I agree about next year. Liked Perez last year enough to see how he progressed this year but he far exceeded what I did expect regarding power and stolen bases. I think Scooter should be traded with Villar sliding to 2b and Perez at 3b. If Rivera can progress to be adequate offensively off bench you have a new backup that can play all 3 spots with great defense. There would be plenty of versatility. Something Scooter offers none of

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, it's why Kirk keeps getting starts. Without him and Scoot you have a full RH lineup. But that's ok with me for next season. It does show how important it is for a couple of the top LH prospects come through.

 

Perez walk rate has improved, he will never walk a ton but if he improves it a little more it would be great. Optimistic about him for sure.

[DHonks]

At this point I'm really pleased with both. Scooter's OBP is better thanks to his improved walk rate. Scooter's defense is fine. Compared to Weeks he's a gold-glover. Perez doesn't walk, but is making better contact this year and driving the ball. I'm happy with both. I like depth

[reillymcshane]

I like depth

This is huge. Depth (lack of depth) has killed the Brewers over the past 5-6 years. Fangraphs did an article a year or so ago and found that something like 20% of our ABs over a four year (I think that was the time frame) period was essentially worth nothing. Overbay, Yuni, Gonzalez, etc., etc.

 

I'm not here to whine about the past, just note that when a club isn't great - and our teams usually weren't great - you can't afford to waste roster spots. But we did exactly that year after year, trotting out sub-par players because we didn't have the payroll to sign someone decent (often because our payroll was being sucked up by mediocre guys like Suppan), or we didn't develop decent replacements in the minors.

 

Often times when you have a few great players, those guys can carry you in spite of weak links. But we don't have those superstar guys (at least not yet). To win, we need all the guys to contribute. You can't let injuries or sub-par players cripple the team - like what's happened in the past. You need competent replacements in the minors or on your bench ready to go. And even better, you have financial flexibility to add players when the need arises.

[trwi7]

I just love it when guys surprise me. I've kept waiting for Hernan to go into a slump or whatever, but it hasn't happened. Of course, it is only half a season or so - and so I shouldn't get too optimistic. But it's fun to consider the possibilities.

 

He has a .294 OBP since the beginning of June. If we don't have better options than him, fine but he's a guy you look to replace when someone better comes along and/or he starts getting more expensive. He's a lot like Gennett in that regard.

[MNBrew]

Good BA, respectable power, decent run production, good SB numbers and success rate, good defense at several positions.... He has areas that need improvement just like most every player, but I don't think a sub-standard walk rate outweighs the sum of the other successes so far or means he's a guy you sell high on the first chance you get.

 

I still want to see this over a few years from Perez before I'll let go of some of my reservations, too, but the improvement shown, at minimum, is definitely worth enjoying and, optimistically, is pretty encouraging for the rest of this year and beyond.

 

Whether Perez amounts to being a short-term placeholder capable of the occasional nice stretch or if he turns into a significant piece going forward (and whether that means as a Brewer over the longer term or as someone able to net something of decent value in return), he's at least a pretty positive contributor who's showing improvement on a team that could use more players playing like he is. That rates him ahead of at least 1/3 of the position players who've spent a decent chunk of time on the Brewers' roster this year (Flores, Kirk N., Maldonado, Elmore, Broxton until this last stint in MLB, Wilkins, Middlebrooks, etc.).

[And That]

He has a .294 OBP since the beginning of June.

That's kind of a random cutoff. He has a .308 OBP on the whole.

 

He also has a 1.3 WAR in about half a season worth of PAs. He's done plenty well this year. He's also only 25. It's not unreasonable to see him being a 2-4 WAR player over a whole year, in the next few seasons.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't see trading Scooter. This team is woefully lacking LH bats. Perez will continue to be an every day player but not at a specific position. It falls in the category if it's not broke, why fix it? I could see Carter being traded at the deadline next year and Perez settling in at 1B for a while, but they love his versatility.

 

Scooter's heir at 2B is Diaz and that's 2-3 years away.

 

Also, I don't believe it's a given that Arcia starts next year in Milwaukee. A lot will depend on how he finishes the year. If he's still scuffling, having him in AAA for a month or 2 weeks to start 2017 might be beneficial. If he doesn't then Villar goes back to SS and Perez takes over 3B and that's another reason Gennett doesn't get dealt in the winter.

[ZBTMP]

Still on a whole he is striking out 5x more than he walks. Its very hard to provide sustainable production doing that. However, that is still a significant improvement from last season so maybe there is more to come.

 

His BABIP is .333 vs a xBABIP of .305 via his statcast data. Thats a big deal when your OBP is fringe anyway. His most optimistic projection for the rest of the season is 75 wRC+.

 

Its within the range of outcomes that he becomes a 2-4 win player and Im fine giving him opportunities to find out, but my expectations are alittle lower.

[Outlander]

Perez is a nice guy to have, can steal bases, hit for some power and plays multiple positions. I could see him still having a decent sized role when this team is good again. Sure beats the Jeff Bianchi's of the past or having a bench guy like Weeks that only played one position. Also, not like Gennett because of position flexibility.

[JohnBriggs12]

Still on a whole he is striking out 5x more than he walks. Its very hard to provide sustainable production doing that. However, that is still a significant improvement from last season so maybe there is more to come.

 

His BABIP is .333 vs a xBABIP of .305 via his statcast data. Thats a big deal when your OBP is fringe anyway. His most optimistic projection for the rest of the season is 75 wRC+.

 

Its within the range of outcomes that he becomes a 2-4 win player and Im fine giving him opportunities to find out, but my expectations are alittle lower.

 

He's improved his walk rate. Last year he walked 1.68% of the time. This year it's 4.39% of the time. That's still low, but it's not an insignificant improvement. With the added power and respect from opposing pitchers, I could see him boosting that further into the 8% range. He'll never be a walk machine but like Gennett this season, I could see a guy who'll walk more. His strikeout rate is up because last year he primarily started against LHP. I was the one guy on here saying last year that he had untapped power potential. The evidence was the 15 doubles in under 250 PA, some of which I recall banging off walls. Now they are flying over. As to his BABIP, it's high in part because he uses the entire field and he can't be shifted against. I see a .280 hitter, with 15-20 HR, and 30 steals getting 500 plate appearances next year. No reason he can't be a key contributor for next 3-4 years.

[ZBTMP]

This team is woefully lacking LH bats.

 

What is a woeful lack of LH bats and why that's a concern? Are teams going to skip left-handers starts vs. us? Are we going to be susceptible to RH pitchers without good change-ups?

Not trying to be snarky, I just don't see these as being limiting concerns. In 2012, we really only had Aoki and still led the league in runs scored.

[MrTPlush]

Hernan Perez is exactly what he is right now at best...a 100 OPS+ player or league average. Nothing special in my opinion. His future with this team is likely a utility player that can come off the bench with some power and speed.

[tmwiese55]

This team is woefully lacking LH bats.

 

What is a woeful lack of LH bats and why that's a concern? Are teams going to skip left-handers starts vs. us? Are we going to be susceptible to RH pitchers without good change-ups?

Not trying to be snarky, I just don't see these as being limiting concerns. In 2012, we really only had Aoki and still led the league in runs scored.

 

And really at this point of re-build, who cares? We're not trying to win in the next two years anyway. Also, Villar being a switch helps a bit. Many 2b, SS, 3B are obviously RH so having one switch is bit of a leg up on most. Basically I just think this would be something to worry about when you're good, not during a rebuild.

[homer]

Here is Hernan's HR tracker data in case anyone is interested:

 

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2016_3592&type=hitter&sortm=date&sort=desc

[adambr2]

Agreed with those who want to see Scooter traded in the offseason. He's not versatile at all and he's about to get more expensive. I also don't see the LH as a real big deal at this point of the rebuild.

 

He's just not a good fit for where we're at, and him being a lefty isn't a good enough reason to keep him around IMO.

[homer]

Hernan Iribarren is the only Hernan for me.

[Devinep]

If the Brewers start Arcia in AAA, which they should next year, Perez has shown he can be the full time 3B at least until Arcias service is delayed enough and he can come up and push Villar to 3B. But long term a utility player is his best use.

[Baldkin]

Hernan Iribarren is the only Hernan for me.

 

I've always been a Cortes guy, myself.

[FVBrewerFan]

We don't know if Arcia starts next season in AAA. There's still over a month to go in the season, and that will determine where Arcia starts next year. Broxton was a bum, then suddenly a BF.net favorite. Arcia is capable of figuring some things out and finishing the year strong.

[adambr2]

If the Brewers start Arcia in AAA, which they should next year, Perez has shown he can be the full time 3B at least until Arcias service is delayed enough and he can come up and push Villar to 3B. But long term a utility player is his best use.

 

Agreed, Perez is best utilized as a super utility guy. Long-term, I'm not sure his bat will play well enough at 3rd to stick there. But if they want to go with him as the interim guy at 3rd next year, trading Scooter and moving Villar to 2nd, I'd be fine with that.

[Greenleaf1]

I see Perez as a super utility guy who gets 3-4 starts a week all around the infield or in RF, plus as a good pinch hitter on the days he doesn't start.

 

Depth is important and something that we're finally starting to build (Santana is a huge step up in outfield depth over Flores). If you look back at our playoff years, players like Mark Kotsay and Jerry Hairston Jr. stand out to me as huge pieces that helped us get to the playoffs, not just the every day guys (although I'll admit Hairston became an every day guy at the end there).

 

Would it be great if Perez doubles his walk rate next year and hits 20 homers and takes over 2nd base from Scooter? Sure, but until then Scooter serves a purpose. I wouldn't look to deal him just to do it while we're rebuilding. I like Perez but I'm cautiously optimistic about his future, and I would love it if he was our super utility guy for the future, maybe building his way up to an everyday role if he improves more.

 

If Arcia doesn't show improvement and they decide to start him at AAA next year, then Perez definitely has a shot to get a lot more playing time at 3B to start the year next year though.

[I Heart Brewers]

Agreed with those who want to see Scooter traded in the offseason. He's not versatile at all and he's about to get more expensive. I also don't see the LH as a real big deal at this point of the rebuild.

 

He's just not a good fit for where we're at, and him being a lefty isn't a good enough reason to keep him around IMO.

 

 

What kind of return for Scooter? Bag of peanuts? I'm prepping myself to be underwhelmed. He just seems like a guy to me. Streaky too.

[pacopete4]

I've been on the move on from Scooter fan bus from awhile but I am also on the fan bus of having a balanced lineup. That includes having left handed options. The thing that keeps me on the move on from Scooter fan bus is that he only plays second base. It sure would be nice to find another versatile guy that can play around the infield that has speed, work a walk and hit at a decent clip. I know, easy said. But I would rather move on from Scooter and have some other guys get opportunities around the diamond, which would include Villar playing mostly 2B.