What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[fleehaw]

I think the Tulowitzi deal is a fair comparable, or at least a starting point, with a potential Braun deal. Both are a similar age, signed to a similar contract, and have put up similar production. Braun has the better bat, but Tulo is better in the field at a more difficult position. Braun would have 1 1/2 years and $30M less on his contract while putting up roughly his career averages this season.

 

Tulo was traded with 5 ½ years and $110M left on his contract. He netted Jeff Hoffman (top 50), Miguel Castro (org top 10), Jesus Tinoco (Diplan lottery ticket type) and Jose Reyes and the remaining 2 ½ years and $59M left on his contract. The Jays ended up taking on $51M in salary.

 

Braun would be traded with 4 years and $80M (incl. deferred money) on his contract and I agree with others that a deal with the Dodgers makes a lot of sense for both teams. I could see the Brewers kicking in around $20M either by picking up the deferred cash or by picking up the entirety of his 2017 salary (helps the Dodgers luxury tax issues).

 

If so, I would expect to yield something like:

Top 50: De Leon or Bellinger

Org Top 10: Buehler, Sheffield, Lux, or Barnes

Lottery Ticket: Abdullah, Brito, Brendan Davis etc.

 

Adding Thornburg to the deal should add value similar to the Will Smith deal. One would think that it would mean the other of the De Leon/Bellinger pair or a combination of players with a similar aggregate value.

[MrTPlush]

Tulowitzki is probably the best examples. There are some somewhat big differences(age at time of trade and position), but overall both are similar. While the Rockies picked up a lot more salary they did get Reyes, who isn't too shabby, for picking up that money. Obviously he didn't work out for the Rockies he had value at the time of the trade.

 

All in all that is the type of return I would expect if we picked up $20mil. Which I thought earlier in the season when this topic came up and that's still pretty much where I stand.

[brewcrewdue80]

 

TPlush gave a great example with Pujols. He has not OPSed over .800 since his age 32 season.

 

To be fair, Albert's 32 year old season might've been his 42 year old season. You never know.

 

Ryan Braun could still be taking some good PEDs and ready to miss an entire year. Your turn.

 

Point is there are many examples of guys who fall off a cliff in their 30s. Even more that decline due to chronic injuries. It's no sure thing for Braun, but enough where teams clearly don't think $80mil is worth the risk at this point.

 

What's Daniel Murphy's excuse? 31 and having a career year by near +20% on his career numbers. What about David Ortiz? His worst 30s number is .794OPS and at 40 is above 1.0+ when he's supposed to retire.

 

Albert Pujols yes did have a quick decline that has settled in to a bat still producing above avg. A good part of his decline was his foot issues. Now, if he weren't being paid so much but closer to Braun's salary, his salary would fall in line to his offensive production. That is Pujols' bounceback from his injuries to be a .260/.320/.450 30-40HR hitter. Braun has bounced back from his injuries and is showing what he can do which is Career norms. So injuries+age and he's not dropped off now with either. 1month away from the offseason to heal up his body some more. His bat may stay the same as this season,(since he's producing to career norms) but that heal up may allow him to play 6-10games more next season. Makes him even more valuable with his production

[A Swing and A Drive]

People are forgetting that in order for the Rockies to get a top 100 prospect for Tulowitski, they had to take on Jose Reyes bad contract.

 

Rockies got:

SP Jeff Hoffman (top 100 prospect)

RP Miguel Castro (org top 10 prospect)

SP Jesus Tinoco (lottery ticket who currently has an ERA over 7.00 in single A)

SS Jose Reyes (HUGE salary dump)

 

Blue Jays got:

SS Troy Tulowitski

RP LaTroy Hawkins

 

Add that to the fact that Tulowitski plays a premium position and Braun does not. So if the Brewers expect to get any decent prospects from the Dodgers in a Braun deal, they would need to take on a salary dump or sent along a significant amount of money.

[LouisEly]

Tulo was also under contract for longer and owed a lot more money than Braun and had more serious injury issues. From 2012-2015 Tulo missed 256 games, and 222 of those were in the three years prior to the trade (he missed 45% of his team's games from 2012-2015). Braun has had a couple of minor procedures but Tulo has had two major surgeries (groin, hip) that have ended his seasons, particularly two of the three seasons prior to the trade. Being leg surgeries they could hinder his future mobility and force him off of SS, and thus no longer be able to play a premium position. Braun will miss 20-25 games a year, but Tulo has missed 10 more games than Braun this year.

 

It could be argued that Tulo is/was a bigger injury risk, and so far it is playing out that way.

[brewerfan82]

What's Daniel Murphy's excuse? 31 and having a career year by near +20% on his career numbers. What about David Ortiz? His worst 30s number is .794OPS and at 40 is above 1.0+ when he's supposed to retire.

 

Albert Pujols yes did have a quick decline that has settled in to a bat still producing above avg. A good part of his decline was his foot issues. Now, if he weren't being paid so much but closer to Braun's salary, his salary would fall in line to his offensive production. That is Pujols' bounceback from his injuries to be a .260/.320/.450 30-40HR hitter. Braun has bounced back from his injuries and is showing what he can do which is Career norms. So injuries+age and he's not dropped off now with either. 1month away from the offseason to heal up his body some more. His bat may stay the same as this season,(since he's producing to career norms) but that heal up may allow him to play 6-10games more next season. Makes him even more valuable with his production

Yes, individuals age differently. However, the point isn't that some players are productive and some aren't in their mid-30's, it's that all players do reach an age at some point in their careers that they decline and collectively over the history of baseball the trend is for that to become more and more likely as they reach their 30's. It's possible Braun will be just as productive in 4 years as a 36 year old as he is now, but he is definitely 4 years closer to whenever his dropoff does occur and no GM in the league is going to assume a 36 year old is going to be as productive as he was as a 32 year old. No matter how many examples you find, a player becomes more and more risky as they age and all GM's recognize that and that definitely affects a player's value.

[A Swing and A Drive]

This makes zero sense. Braun and Tulowitski's contracts are nearly identical. Also failed to mention that the Rockies had to TAKE ON a huge contract from Jose Reyes to even be able to part with Tulo. The Brewers will need to do the same or else Braun has no trade value.

[adambr2]

I don't know if I'd even refer to Pujols bat as 'above average' anymore by 1B standards. He's basically Chris Carter now, which is fine if you're paying Chris Carter level money, not so good if you're paying Albert Pujols level money.

 

The whole point of any of this discussion was that you can't say for certain that Braun won't have some level of decline as he ages. Yes, there are always going to be exceptions like Ortiz, but those are the exceptions, not the norms, and that's being reflected in the trade market for Braun.

[MKE81]

No he really didn't have every right to go after the guy and question his character etc. like he did. Braun knew he cheated himself. Braun was willing to make other people look bad to save his own butt. Braun should have just accepted his own suspension and there should have never been any appeal. The argument the chain of custody was broken may be true, but for it to effect the sample is a joke. Nothing happened to the sample and he followed all protocol if a FedEx was not open. However one was open so Braun got off the hook.

 

It all doesn't matter though because I don't think that is why Braun is so hated over others it is just a piece to the hate puzzle. He is hated so much because he said it was false and he went on for months about it. Then he had that speech during spring training after he won. While most PED users lie and say "I have no idea how this happened" only Braun had some long drawn out lie that lasted a good year. Once it was found out he really did cheat he looked like a total douche.

May? No. It is true. It's not a debate. There's a reason protocol is in place including shipping a sample within a specific time period from collecting it. "Nothing happened to the sample and he followed all protocol if a FedEx was not open. However one was open so Braun got off the hook". Somehow you continue to fail to comprehend that the collector didn't follow protocol and the chain of custody. If he followed protocol then it would have been shipped instead of sitting in his house for the next day or two (can't recall exactly when he did ship it). Furthermore, this collector has admitted to doing this previously (ie not following the chain of custody). So Braun absolutely had every right to target the chain of custody and the collector based on his prior actions. It also doesn't matter if Braun knows he's guilty or not. When the collector doesn't, and hasn't, followed the chain of custody then why should he keep quiet and take his punishment while a person continues to not properly do his job? Knowing he can win his appeal and still play why would he say "I'm guilty"? After he won his appeal, why would he say "I'm guilty"? The real problem here is people actually caring how entertainers conduct themselves. I don't care if Braun is the biggest POS in the history. Entertain me, be a good teammate (which he is) and help your team win.

 

Regarding him not being a Top 20 offensive player - below are overall rankings in NL and MLB

BA - T7, T14

OBP - 17, 24

SLG - 8, T14

OPS - 10, 16

 

OF only rankings in NL and MLB

BA - 2, 4

OBP - 5, 6

SLG - 2, 4

OPS - 2, 4

 

So the offensive numbers show he's a Top 2-3 OF in NL and Top 5 OF in MLB. As an overall position player he's Top 10 in NL and Top 15-16 in MLB. This season isn't some magical year for Braun. This is pretty close to his career norms across the board and he's done it for a long time now. I still have no idea how people say he's a below average LF. He has enough speed, takes good routes the vast, vast majority of the time, makes the plays he's supposed to make, has a very solid arm and is extremely accurate to all bases. He has always played a solid LF and still is. WAR, defensive sabermetrics are a complete joke - and one of my friends who writes, on occasion, for FanGraphs has shares the same sentiment.

 

Braun can be traded and teams do want him. It's a matter of how Stearns is willing to structure it and what he wants in return.

[TURBO]

I don't know if I'd even refer to Pujols bat as 'above average' anymore by 1B standards. He's basically Chris Carter now, which is fine if you're paying Chris Carter level money, not so good if you're paying Albert Pujols level money.

 

 

Pujols 2016 numbers:

 

.268/.326/.467 to go along with 29 long balls and 108 RBI.

 

I'd say Albert is still "above average" by 1B standards...

[1992casey]

Pujols 2016 numbers:

 

.268/.326/.467 to go along with 29 long balls and 108 RBI.

 

I'd say Albert is still "above average" by 1B standards...

I'd call Albert's numbers close to average.

 

AL first basemen: 255 /.328/.444

NL first basemen: .261/.344/.460

MLB first basemen: .258/.336/.452

[reillymcshane]

I don't know if I'd even refer to Pujols bat as 'above average' anymore by 1B standards. He's basically Chris Carter now, which is fine if you're paying Chris Carter level money, not so good if you're paying Albert Pujols level money.

 

 

Pujols 2016 numbers:

 

.268/.326/.467 to go along with 29 long balls and 108 RBI.

 

I'd say Albert is still "above average" by 1B standards...

Pujols hits home runs still, but he's really faded in most other areas. He has 15 doubles, no triples. And his walk rate of 8% is half of what it was 6-7 years ago. Add in poor base running, and he's just a shadow of his former self. This year he's producing 1.2 bWAR and 0.9 fWAR.

 

Also, he doesn't play 1B much anymore. Only 28 starts in the field - over 100 in at DH. Which is not a bad thing, as his fielding isn't good anymore.

 

It doesn't mean he doesn't have value - I'd just say he's pretty mediocre.

[adambr2]

I don't know if I'd even refer to Pujols bat as 'above average' anymore by 1B standards. He's basically Chris Carter now, which is fine if you're paying Chris Carter level money, not so good if you're paying Albert Pujols level money.

 

 

Pujols 2016 numbers:

 

.268/.326/.467 to go along with 29 long balls and 108 RBI.

 

I'd say Albert is still "above average" by 1B standards...

 

Along with the stats you listed above, I'll add a .793 OPS and a 1.1 WAR for Pujols.

 

Carter is .228/.325/.497 with a .823 OPS and 1.3 WAR, and 32 HR.

 

Seem very comparable to me.

[1992casey]

You can compare Albert to other designated hitters and also get average…

 

AL DH: .253/.326/.451

 

Or you can compare him to overall numbers and get average…

 

AL overall: .322/.426/.747

MLB overall: .322/.419/.741

 

There's nothing wrong with average per se, but it's a problem with Pujols because of his contract.

[splitterpfj]

In order to deal Ryan Braun, the Brewers need to find a team he cannot block a trade to, that is a contender and not rebuilding right now, that has a deep farm system to deal from, that will not wind up asking the Brewers to pay a ridiculous amount of Braun's contract.

 

Unless Braun makes a radical departure and starts including teams like Boston on his list of "acceptable" teams, there is only one match.

 

We needed to know if the Brewers were truly ready to deal Braun - now we know that they are. We needed to know if the Dodgers were willing to deal for Braun - now we know that they are.

 

Barring a significant injury prior to the end of this season, Ryan Braun is going to be a Los Angeles Dodger.

[FVBrewerFan]

We needed to know if the Brewers were truly ready to deal Braun - now we know that they are. We needed to know if the Dodgers were willing to deal for Braun - now we know that they are.

 

Barring a significant injury prior to the end of this season, Ryan Braun is going to be a Los Angeles Dodger.

 

That's quite a conclusion you made. I would add "barring an unacceptable return from the Dodgers." Since that's why Braun isn't already a Dodger today.

[splitterpfj]

FV, that's obviously, a fair point - the Brewers aren't going to give Braun away.

 

I think, I don't know this for sure, but I think the two sides were very close to agreeing on which players went where, but they weren't together on the financials, and they were up against a deadline, so it just didn't happen right now.

 

We'll see, but I would absolutely bet on it. The Giants, Angels, Diamondbacks and Marlins all have weak farm systems right now, and the Padres are dealing for prospects at this point, not veterans - the Dodgers are the match.

 

Unless Braun shifts and adds someone new to his "unprotected list", this is all Dodgers, all day long. I just think the two groups need a little bit of time to sort it out.

 

The Dodgers had stayed back on Braun earlier in the season for some reason, perhaps a deal could have been done in August if there had been more discussion earlier, but now we know the interest is there.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think what you've done, unintentionally, is make a case why a deal WON'T be done. As you said, the Dodgers are the only team that makes sense. Not a good bargaining position to be in. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have many other options to find a bat via FA or trade. Or, they could decide they don't need a bat that badly at all. They have options, the Brewers don't.

 

Ideally, yea, the Brewers could get him to expand his list to include teams like Boston and Atlanta- both of which I think may be interested, and both have the farm systems necessary to generate a good return for the Brewers.

[Greenleaf1]

The Brewers have the option to keep Braun, and there's as good a case for doing that as trading him.

 

The Brewers have no need to shed payroll in 2018/2019, leaving 2 years/$34M (plus $4M buyout or only $15M mutual option) left on Braun's contract during our prime competing years (assuming we get there). He's not a drain on our team financially and he's still competing, the only reason to trade him now would be to continue to acquire young, controllable talent for the future. While Braun continues to contribute to the team the way he has been, that provides less incentive to trade him since he still figures to be able to contribute to our next playoff run (obviously not for sure, but there's a good chance he's still a pretty good player in a few years).

 

All it takes is 1 team with a big enough need for a great hitting corner outfielder to pay us enough to let him go. Otherwise we'll just hold onto him.

 

Unlike with Lucroy, trading Braun is not necessary for a successful rebuild to occur.

[Madhawk23]

Splitter,

 

What do you think would constitute a fair return for Braun from the Dodgers? Assuming of course that we may have to pick up a bit of the salary to get a bit more in return?

[splitterpfj]

Splitter,

 

What do you think would constitute a fair return for Braun from the Dodgers? Assuming of course that we may have to pick up a bit of the salary to get a bit more in return?

 

That's a really good question, and there are quite a few variables.

 

First of all, is Puig in the deal, or out? He was obviously in a week ago, but will that still be a focus in two months?

 

If Puig is in, is that because the Dodgers want to be rid of him, or because he's been offered as the stud you get back in the deal?

 

Do the Brewers offer to send cash in the trade, or do they scoff at the idea of handing dollars to such a huge market?

 

However this shakes out, if I'm right, and the Brewers match up with LA on a Braun deal, that farm system has pitching to get. De Leon, Alvarez, Buehler, Sheffield, Stewart, Sborz, Abdullah, and De Jong - there's some fun stuff in that pile.

 

I don't know if it will end up being about Puig, or Cody Bellinger for that matter, but I would expect a quality arm to show up in the return.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=la

[Madhawk23]

Splitter - thanks for your insight.

 

I'm sure I can speak on behalf of most on this board in saying that I'd definitely prefer getting a couple of top prospects from the Dodgers system over having Puig come back as the headliner in any deal for Braun. However, I guess I was thinking that we might have to take Puig back in the deal (as an extra piece) to make some of the dollars work - as well as to help LA rid themselves of him? If I'm Stearns, I'm telling LA "We'll take Puig off of your hands, but we also need a couple of other good prospects in return for Braun."

 

Now, I have no idea though if that stance is going to work with LA, and maybe that is what held this thing up at the August deadline? I'm sure they still see a lot of potential in Puig and probably don't think they should have to give up much more with him in a deal for Braun. But, hopefully they come to their senses this off season and realize that Braun would be a major upgrade for their lineup and also realize that Puig has lost a lot of his trade value.

[brewmann04]

I think Braun will stay here but his value is very High and don't think Puig straight up will be equal return

[Roderick]

I think Braun will stay here but his value is very High and don't think Puig straight up will be equal return

 

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/inside-baseball-with-jon-heyman/heyman-20-best-trades-last-two-seasons/

 

 

After winning the claim for Yasiel Puig, the Dodgers tried for a Ryan Braun for Puig trade, but “the sides just couldn’t make it work.” The issue, no surprise, was money. With Braun clearing waivers, the Dodgers sought financial relief to take his contract, and perhaps the Brewers, considering Braun’s excellent season and the Dodgers’ ability to pay, didn’t want to subsidize things too much (the Brewers allegedly were willing to pay some of it down). The Dodgers figured that with Braun’s age, injury and other history (plus the fact that he cleared), there was ample evidence he still isn’t worth quite his contract. Meanwhile, Puig was claimed by multiple teams, evidence he is worth at least as much as his contract. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports and MLB Network first reported that the Brewers won the claim for Puig (at least the White Sox and Orioles also claimed Puig) …

[adambr2]

I'm not surprised. I think the Dodgers are a great fit for Braun, but the money issue is a big one, an issue that might kill any deal to them this offseason.

 

Unlike most teams, the Dodgers have been over the luxury tax threshold the last few years, so any additional salary they take on has a 50% tax on it. Braun seems like a fair deal at $19M a season, but he's a whole lot less appealing at $28.5M/season.