What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[MNBrew]

Braun's a Top 10 offensive bat who's worth more than an injured Garza-type SP, and a former phenom who hasn't convinced anyone that he's sufficiently grown up, and 2 whatever-they'll-give-us (potentially non-premium) prospects.

 

Apparently he isn't worth more, since they've been trying to trade him since July.

"Listening to offers" and "willing to engage" aren't the same as "trying to trade." And until we actually know the facts, we only have Stearns' & Attanasio's words to go on. The rest is reporters' speculation.

[adambr2]

This sounds like you're more interested in just getting a trade done rather than getting an optimal return. If that's the angle you're advocating, I can't buy into that.

 

Braun's a Top 10 offensive bat who's worth more than an injured Garza-type SP, and a former phenom who hasn't convinced anyone that he's sufficiently grown up, and 2 whatever-they'll-give-us (potentially non-premium) prospects.

 

No, I'm just trying to look at this objectively. Puig alone is likely to bring a similar or better WAR than Braun over the next 3 years at a fraction of the cost.

 

At this point we've pretty much determined that Braun's remaining contract is very near his FA value, giving him negligible trade value without taking on sufficient salary in return.

 

Barring an MVP type year from Braun the optimal return probably exists only in theory and not in reality.

[MrTPlush]

The Brewers would love to trade Braun. The Brewers don't want all that salary obligation when they are unlikely to compete. Ryan Braun is worth very little if we aren't competing. Actually he probably has a lot of negative value as attendance and other revenue streams drop we still have to pay him $18mil.

 

Only reason he is still a Brewers is probably because they fear a lot of backlash from casual fans. If fans understood why it might make sense to trade Braun and save money it would have been done by now. Instead a good majority of fans will throw a fit and claim they are saving money to stick in their own pockets etc if fancy names aren't coming back.

[brewcrewdue80]

Braun was the last of the .900+ OPS club that totaled....16. 3 in that club were Colorado Rockies players: Blackmon .933 Arenado .932 LeMathieu. LeMathieu hadn't batted over .800 OPS and Blackmon's previous career high was .803. Arenado is a legit .900OPS bat.

 

A guy by the name of Corey Dickerson had previously batted .869 and .931OPS. But playing for Tampa BA dropped 60pts and OPS only .761.

 

Daniel Murphy turned a previous high fullseason OPS of .809 to .985 last season, at the young age of 31.

 

You can remove those 3 most likely while adding a few like Goldschmidt. Corey Seager/Manny Machado.

 

But you end up with essentially 15 bats that will OPS .900 for you.(and Ortiz who lead all is retired and was last of 11 on this list last season)

 

Just keep dogging Braun's value with the defense he provides in the Outfield...One I've stated averages to a little more than 2 full chances in a game to impact. And ignore the DH spot in AL because only 6 well now 5 of those .900OPS bats reside there. Braun is providing every bit to what he is being paid and likely exceeds it imo. Certainly with how his payments are made, he's far exceeding it. Now, teams can wish and hope the bat they have as a prospect turns in to top 15 in all of baseball. Or they can acquire that bat.

 

Moncada the #1 prospect at this moment .916OPS in 2016 in minors. .513 his little time spent in the Majors. Andrew Benintendi .910OPS in minors .835 Majors. Eloy Jimenez .901OPS in minor 0 ML PAs. Kyle Lewis 30 Minor games .915OPS Nick Senzel 68 minor games .912 That is it for the top 50 prospects end of 2016 season.

 

Bats like Braun's are extremely hard to come by. The Nationals paid 12.5million a year to Daniel Murphy for his .755OPS career bat to play 2nd base. They would have been laughed off if they predicted the season completely out of his norm he had. You think Murphy would have only gotten 12.5mil a year if he had that .985OPS of 2016 to his credit? You pay for what you expect and 19mil a year for Braun producing a .900 OPS is everything you paid for. Ten teams the real small market teams, you can pretty much expect not to have 20mil+ players on them since they can't afford that in an overall team payroll. Leaves about 20 teams that can. 5 are on Braun's ok to trade list. maybe just 4. The others are on his no-trade list. Then you get to the fact of what prospects a team can offer and in Ari, LAA, SF, and Miami what are they really offering worth Braun's bat? and worthwhile now to add to the deep system Stearns has built?

 

So of course there's little chatter ongoing in a Braun trade. But if you believe teams are sitting there like, "Braun is getting paid well to much for what he does. Awful contract and no use for him on our team" I posted long ago the behind the scenes comment of interest if Braun would be made available in July's trade market, the bat they'd want.

[adambr2]

Braun was the last of the .900+ OPS club that totaled....16. 3 in that club were Colorado Rockies players: Blackmon .933 Arenado .932 LeMathieu. LeMathieu hadn't batted over .800 OPS and Blackmon's previous career high was .803. Arenado is a legit .900OPS bat.

 

A guy by the name of Corey Dickerson had previously batted .869 and .931OPS. But playing for Tampa BA dropped 60pts and OPS only .761.

 

Daniel Murphy turned a previous high fullseason OPS of .809 to .985 last season, at the young age of 31.

 

You can remove those 3 most likely while adding a few like Goldschmidt. Corey Seager/Manny Machado.

 

But you end up with essentially 15 bats that will OPS .900 for you.(and Ortiz who lead all is retired and was last of 11 on this list last season)

 

Just keep dogging Braun's value with the defense he provides in the Outfield...One I've stated averages to a little more than 2 full chances in a game to impact. And ignore the DH spot in AL because only 6 well now 5 of those .900OPS bats reside there. Braun is providing every bit to what he is being paid and likely exceeds it imo. Certainly with how his payments are made, he's far exceeding it. Now, teams can wish and hope the bat they have as a prospect turns in to top 15 in all of baseball. Or they can acquire that bat.

 

Moncada the #1 prospect at this moment .916OPS in 2016 in minors. .513 his little time spent in the Majors. Andrew Benintendi .910OPS in minors .835 Majors. Eloy Jimenez .901OPS in minor 0 ML PAs. Kyle Lewis 30 Minor games .915OPS Nick Senzel 68 minor games .912 That is it for the top 50 prospects end of 2016 season.

 

Bats like Braun's are extremely hard to come by. The Nationals paid 12.5million a year to Daniel Murphy for his .755OPS career bat to play 2nd base. They would have been laughed off if they predicted the season completely out of his norm he had. You think Murphy would have only gotten 12.5mil a year if he had that .985OPS of 2016 to his credit? You pay for what you expect and 19mil a year for Braun producing a .900 OPS is everything you paid for. Ten teams the real small market teams, you can pretty much expect not to have 20mil+ players on them since they can't afford that in an overall team payroll. Leaves about 20 teams that can. 5 are on Braun's ok to trade list. maybe just 4. The others are on his no-trade list. Then you get to the fact of what prospects a team can offer and in Ari, LAA, SF, and Miami what are they really offering worth Braun's bat? and worthwhile now to add to the deep system Stearns has built?

 

So of course there's little chatter ongoing in a Braun trade. But if you believe teams are sitting there like, "Braun is getting paid well to much for what he does. Awful contract and no use for him on our team" I posted long ago the behind the scenes comment of interest if Braun would be made available in July's trade market, the bat they'd want.

 

An extremely similar bat at a remarkably similar age couldn't even get 4 years and barely matched Braun's money, as a free agent, where any team was free to sign him for nothing more than a late 1st or early 2nd pick. What does that tell you about Braun's trade value?

[FVBrewerFan]

The Brewers would love to trade Braun. The Brewers don't want all that salary obligation when they are unlikely to compete. Ryan Braun is worth very little if we aren't competing. Actually he probably has a lot of negative value as attendance and other revenue streams drop we still have to pay him $18mil.

 

Only reason he is still a Brewers is probably because they fear a lot of backlash from casual fans. If fans understood why it might make sense to trade Braun and save money it would have been done by now. Instead a good majority of fans will throw a fit and claim they are saving money to stick in their own pockets etc if fancy names aren't coming back.

 

Agree with the first paragraph, then you lost me. I don't believe for a minute that fan reaction would play any role in Stearns decision to trade him, or Mark A preventing him from doing so. They just traded Lucroy, and in the recent past they have moved Gomez, two guys the fans really loved. Not to mention letting Fielder walk, traded Yo, traded Hardy, moved on from Weeks/Hart.

 

I think even casual fans "get" what they're trying to do in general, if not every specific move. And even if they didn't there's just no way that would prevent a trade. Based on everything I've read and heard, seems very simple. Stearns is asking for more than the Dodgers (or anyone else)are willing to give- at least for now.

[brewcrewdue80]

Similar bat, similar age, not similar fielding abilities. Encarnacion is strictly limited to 1b/DH. He got 20mil equal to Braun's original pricetag to contract for his bat only. Braun is capable to play the Corner OFs. It shows if anything to me of the 15 teams that would really use EE's services they were willing to part with a 1st rd pick. His deal has an option for 20million a 4th year vs. that of Braun's 15million.

 

6 of those 15 .900 OPS bats were 1b/DH. Giving Goldschmidt/EE the benefit that they are .900 OPS bats that is 8/17 related directly to 1b/DH roles. Remove the 3 said above not likely to stay. That list becomes Trout, Donaldson, Bryant, Arenado, JD Martinez and Braun. 3rd as an OF. Pretty much it's 10 teams that can say Braun will be their 2nd best bat in the lineup. And the rest of MLB he is their best bat on that team like he is on ours. Now you could argue there's teams out there with a batter youthful bat awaiting to produce beyond Braun's but it takes a lot of those to knock him off a #1 bat for a team in to the best of the #2s. He's certainly not a batter you wouldn't want at the plate in any game situation. He's proven to be exceptionally consistent at all times in a game.

 

Based on what I wrote before on the bat talents at the top of prospect ratings, any moves by Stearns is taking a huge risk to acquire a lesser bat just to save some salary. FWIW, Cody Bellinger hasn't played to a .900OPS bat in the minors. Which I shown at 1b happens more frequently than any other position. The Dodgers have played him in the OF to help get him a place to fit on the ML if he's to be called up. Adrian Gonzalez, a year+ older than Braun is being paid 20+mil for an .807OPS and yet worth 14.2BWar for a 0 value defense in 5years.

 

I dunno why I waste so much time with this. Obviously guys who look at a bottle half full appreciate Braun to having value. And guys who see the bottle as half empty think it's not there. Just never going to break that mindset regardless how many stats, comparables I put down in writing. I won't do it anymore.

Signing off this thread. BrewCrew.

[MrTPlush]

The Brewers would love to trade Braun. The Brewers don't want all that salary obligation when they are unlikely to compete. Ryan Braun is worth very little if we aren't competing. Actually he probably has a lot of negative value as attendance and other revenue streams drop we still have to pay him $18mil.

 

Only reason he is still a Brewers is probably because they fear a lot of backlash from casual fans. If fans understood why it might make sense to trade Braun and save money it would have been done by now. Instead a good majority of fans will throw a fit and claim they are saving money to stick in their own pockets etc if fancy names aren't coming back.

 

Agree with the first paragraph, then you lost me. I don't believe for a minute that fan reaction would play any role in Stearns decision to trade him, or Mark A preventing him from doing so. They just traded Lucroy, and in the recent past they have moved Gomez, two guys the fans really loved. Not to mention letting Fielder walk, traded Yo, traded Hardy, moved on from Weeks/Hart.

 

I think even casual fans "get" what they're trying to do in general, if not every specific move. And even if they didn't there's just no way that would prevent a trade. Based on everything I've read and heard, seems very simple. Stearns is asking for more than the Dodgers (or anyone else)are willing to give- at least for now.

 

If you were making a trade mostly to save money backlash does matter. Braun is different from all those players. I'd imagine attendance would see a significant drop among other things. If you are trying to save money attendance dropping by the thousands would negate a lot of the gain.

 

If the return is already questionable concerns over fan reaction can play a role in how badly they would want to trade him.

[NievesNoNO]

The Brewers would love to trade Braun. The Brewers don't want all that salary obligation when they are unlikely to compete. Ryan Braun is worth very little if we aren't competing. Actually he probably has a lot of negative value as attendance and other revenue streams drop we still have to pay him $18mil.

 

Only reason he is still a Brewers is probably because they fear a lot of backlash from casual fans. If fans understood why it might make sense to trade Braun and save money it would have been done by now. Instead a good majority of fans will throw a fit and claim they are saving money to stick in their own pockets etc if fancy names aren't coming back.

 

I don't buy the casual fan argument. The people I'd consider casual fans of the Brewers are still typically sports fans and or people looking for something entertaining to do. I'd argue that either of those groups could care less about the names on the jerseys. They'd like to see wins and/or come for a fun atmosphere. Mark A. has done a great job of investing money into the park and creating a family friendly and generally entertaining atmosphere.

 

I don't think Braun being a Brewer affects attendance one way or another by name value; if you want to talk wins and "staying in" a race then that's an argument that could be made.

 

We've seen some of the same song and dance with Lucroy last season. Brewers not motivated to trade, best offers are for backup catchers...etc etc. Then a deal comes together. I still think Braun gets moved by opening day.

[reillymcshane]

Adrian Gonzalez, a year+ older than Braun is being paid 20+mil for an .807OPS and yet worth 14.2BWar for a 0 value defense in 5years.

 

I have read this line over and over and can't figure out what it means? Could you explain it? Thank you.

[adambr2]

I'd like to add 2 things to that:

 

1) Adrian Gonzalez has 2 years left on his contract, not 4, which is a much lower risk for a team to trade for a player in his 30s.

 

2) No one is arguing that Adrian Gonzalez has positive trade value at the moment. Gonzalez was traded almost 5 years ago. Gonzalez' contract has nothing to do with Braun's trade value.

[brewcrewdue80]

Adrian Gonzalez, a year+ older than Braun is being paid 20+mil for an .807OPS and yet worth 14.2BWar for a 0 value defense in 5years.

 

I have read this line over and over and can't figure out what it means? Could you explain it? Thank you.

 

Sorry, I get that way when digesting info in the moment. Adrian Gonzalez for 5years playing with Dodgers, being a year older than Braun and contract over 20mil paid yearly. Has only provided an .807 OPS at 1st base. Yet been valued as 14.2 BWAR. While BRef gives him a 0 type Def WAR value over those 5years. I'd think Braun could provide a 0 type Def WAR value at 1b. And if an .807OPS makes you a 3WAR 1b. Braun has 12-13WAR to give these 4years if not more.

[adambr2]

Adrian Gonzalez, a year+ older than Braun is being paid 20+mil for an .807OPS and yet worth 14.2BWar for a 0 value defense in 5years.

 

I have read this line over and over and can't figure out what it means? Could you explain it? Thank you.

 

I'd think Braun could provide a 0 type Def WAR value at 1b.

 

Based on what? I'm not saying you're wrong, but I just question how you came to the conclusion that Braun would be a league average defensive 1st baseman.

 

He was a horrendous defensive 3rd baseman, and while 1st is definitely entirely different, I have a hard time seeing how his defensive skills would translate to an average first baseman despite not playing an inning there in his entire career.

 

I think if the organization really believed that, Braun to 1st would have been much more highly considered this offseason.

[ewitkows]

I believe most of his errors were throwing errors, something that he wouldn't have to do at 1B much.

[FVBrewerFan]

Hart made the transition late in his career, and was much better than I ever imagined. Braun grew up as a SS, he is plenty athletic enough to be at least an avg 1B, if he put his heart into it.

[MrTPlush]

Hart made the transition late in his career, and was much better than I ever imagined. Braun grew up as a SS, he is plenty athletic enough to be at least an avg 1B, if he put his heart into it.

 

If that was the case he would have been decent at 3B, not taken years to be decent in LF, or would have been able to transition to RF. However none of those things ever happened. History says he can't do it or would take years to transition at 1B to be decent

[MNBrew]

Hart made the transition late in his career, and was much better than I ever imagined. Braun grew up as a SS, he is plenty athletic enough to be at least an avg 1B, if he put his heart into it.

That's an apples/oranges comparison: Hart was originally a 1B who only got moved around to other positions (3B for a year & finally the OF) once Prince Fielder entered the organization and quickly (and rightly) became the 1B of the future.

[FVBrewerFan]

Hart made the transition late in his career, and was much better than I ever imagined. Braun grew up as a SS, he is plenty athletic enough to be at least an avg 1B, if he put his heart into it.

That's an apples/oranges comparison: Hart was originally a 1B who only got moved around to other positions (3B for a year & finally the OF) once Prince Fielder entered the organization and quickly (and rightly) became the 1B of the future.

 

More like tangerines and oranges. Hart didn't play 1B for 10 years before he was asked to go there at age 30.

[adambr2]

Also Hart was still a well below average 1st baseman. I don't remember him failing the eye test too miserably but the metrics were not kind to him.

[logan82]

Braun couldn't field well either. He looked terrible fielding balls as well as throwing. He is athletic but had no fielding instincts.

[reillymcshane]

Adrian Gonzalez, a year+ older than Braun is being paid 20+mil for an .807OPS and yet worth 14.2BWar for a 0 value defense in 5years.

 

I have read this line over and over and can't figure out what it means? Could you explain it? Thank you.

 

Sorry, I get that way when digesting info in the moment. Adrian Gonzalez for 5years playing with Dodgers, being a year older than Braun and contract over 20mil paid yearly. Has only provided an .807 OPS at 1st base. Yet been valued as 14.2 BWAR. While BRef gives him a 0 type Def WAR value over those 5years. I'd think Braun could provide a 0 type Def WAR value at 1b. And if an .807OPS makes you a 3WAR 1b. Braun has 12-13WAR to give these 4years if not more.

Thanks for the reply. Appreciate you taking the time to do so.

[bill hAll Star]

Adrian Gonzalez, a year+ older than Braun is being paid 20+mil for an .807OPS and yet worth 14.2BWar for a 0 value defense in 5years.

 

I have read this line over and over and can't figure out what it means? Could you explain it? Thank you.

 

Sorry, I get that way when digesting info in the moment. Adrian Gonzalez for 5years playing with Dodgers, being a year older than Braun and contract over 20mil paid yearly. Has only provided an .807 OPS at 1st base. Yet been valued as 14.2 BWAR. While BRef gives him a 0 type Def WAR value over those 5years. I'd think Braun could provide a 0 type Def WAR value at 1b. And if an .807OPS makes you a 3WAR 1b. Braun has 12-13WAR to give these 4years if not more.

 

I'm not 100% sure what goes into bbref's WAR, but I'd imagine home park and where most of the divisional games are played probably factors in.

 

He gets ~20 games in the friendly Coors and Chase, but he plays about 100 games at Dodger Stadium, AT&T, and Petco. If you look at Gonzalez's splits, his OPS is always .20-.30 points higher on the road in his Dodger years. I'd imagine that that is factored into BWAR, but I could be wrong.

 

Coincidentally, Braun's career numbers in the cavernous NL West parks are really, really good over his career. All of that said, I'd imagine that Braun puts up about an .850-.860 OPS (full season home and away) playing out there when the numbers all settle out. He doesn't get his comfy .900+ home OPS to prop him up anymore if he goes out to LAD...I'm going to assume that he stops OPSing nearly 1.000 combined @LAD/@SF/@SD like he has for the 70 games he's played there in his career.

[FVBrewerFan]

How about a three team deal?

 

From everything I've heard from people out in LA, it seems the Dodgers were considering Puig as the centerpiece. If that was true, more importantly if it STILL is then it's no wonder a deal hasn't been done.

 

Sure, Puig could be a flip candidate for the Brewers. But I don't want that and I don't Stearns does either. We need two top 100 or 100"ish" prospects back, and change for Ryan Braun.

 

So, how about including the Marlins in this deal? You would think that's a natural place for Puig to go. 6 of their top 10 prospects are pitchers (including 4 LH.) Some of you guys will know far more about them than I do. But how about a deal like this:

 

Dodgers- Braun

Marlins- Puig

Brewers- A top Dodgers prospect, a top Marlins SP prospect, and two "lottery" type prospects

 

Maybe the Brewers would need to pay part of Braun's contract (to get more from Dodgers) and/or throw another player in (to get more from the Marlins.) All depends on the quality of two prospects in return.

[nate82]

The Brewers were and I still believe are interested in Puig.

[CheeseheadInQC]

A lot of this discussion kind of illustrates why I doubt Braun gets dealt. Stearns' statements seem to point to only trading him if it makes baseball sense. The Brewers have a low payroll and Garza either coming off the books or getting substantially cheaper after this season. Their top guaranteed 2018 contract other than Braun is $5 million for Thames. At this point Braun's contract probably matters more to the acquiring team than it does to the Brewers. The impetus for a salary dump just isn't there, and any such trade would hurt them both perception-wise and baseball-wise. Maybe if the Brewers take on a bad contract or two (as in the Dodgers deal that apparently was close) they could get a return that makes sense baseball-wise, but barring that I just don't see anything happening.