What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[sveumrules]

Encarnacion | 2017 Age: 34 | 3 years/65 million

 

2015-16: 269/364/542 | 142 wRC+ | 1326 PAs | +60 Off | 8.4 fWAR

 

Braun | 2017 Age: 33 | 4 years/76 million

 

2015-16: 295/361/518 | 131 wRC+ | 1132 PAs | +44 Off | 6.1 fWAR

 

The only real edge Braun has on Encarnacion is that he is one notch higher on the defensive spectrum & his offensive game is more well rounded. He is a year younger, but has a worse recent track record in both performance & health so I think that is more or less a wash.

 

If the market just valued EE's skillset at 3/65 it's pretty easy to see why there haven't been any takers on Braun at 4/76. It definitely seems that unless we take on a deadweight contract in return or eat a decent portion of Braun's remaining commitment we aren't getting any prospects of note in any hypothetical trade.

[adambr2]

Encarnacion | 2017 Age: 34 | 3 years/65 million

 

2015-16: 269/364/542 | 142 wRC+ | 1326 PAs | +60 Off | 8.4 fWAR

 

Braun | 2017 Age: 33 | 4 years/76 million

 

2015-16: 295/361/518 | 131 wRC+ | 1132 PAs | +44 Off | 6.1 fWAR

 

The only real edge Braun has on Encarnacion is that he is one notch higher on the defensive spectrum & his offensive game is more well rounded. He is a year younger, but has a worse recent track record in both performance & health so I think that is more or less a wash.

 

If the market just valued EE's skillset at 3/65 it's pretty easy to see why there haven't been any takers on Braun at 4/76. It definitely seems that unless we take on a deadweight contract in return or eat a decent portion of Braun's remaining commitment we aren't getting any prospects of note in any hypothetical trade.

 

Encarnacion is a great comp to Braun and does illustrate that Braun's contract, in both length and amount, doesn't really do us any favors in trading him. An additional problem with the Dodgers or any NL team is the fact that they can't just hide him at DH at any point, something which surely made Encarnacion more attractive to an AL team like the Indians.

[JosephC]

Encarnacion is probably pretty safe to apply the 0.5 decrease in WAR every year because, since defense doesn't figure into his equation, he would probably be less susceptible to large variances due to added defensive declines. If that is assumed Encarnacion is 3.2, 2.7 and 2.2 WAR over the next three years which would put his value at 70.88 million. After subtracting out the guaranteed portion of his deal his surplus value is roughly 5-6 million dollars...I've figured Braun is probably 8-9 million dollars and I'd say that's close enough where it's probably a wash. The Indian's do forfeit their first round pick which should be figured into the equation. Since it's so late in the round the prospect will probably figure to be classified as a "top 10 organizational prospect" type...personally I'd put surplus value for a player like that at 10 million. That is probably Braun's worth strictly when looking at a straight up Braun for prospect(s) swap, Braun for 1 "top 10 organizational prospect" or a couple "role player prospects."

[reillymcshane]

If Braun would become a DH, would his performance value increase since he isn't a negative in the field? I would think so with regard to WAR - but I figured I would check to see if anyone knew for sure.

 

On the flip side, a team might not value his as much because they can't put him in LF if needed.

[sveumrules]

Position adjustment for DH is -15 while it is only -7 for LF, so Braun would likely take a small hit on the defense/position portion of the WAR equation. For reference the last few years he's been around -9 to -13 for position & defense.

 

Where he could make that difference up is if being a full time DH allowed him to stay healthier to the point where he was able to play more often and possibly perform at a higher level when on the field, increasing his totals in the replacement & offense columns. There is also a league bonus for AL players (+2.5ish I believe) playing in what is perceived to be the harder league so that would also offset some of the value lost going from a below average LF to full time DH.

[MKE81]

So defensive metrics list Braun as a negative defender. Does anybody, using their eyeballs watching Braun play LF, believe Braun is a below average (negative) defender? His first step, read/route, quickness/speed, arm strength, accuracy, intelligence, keeping runners at bay, effort, etc. Do people actually see a below average LF defender?

[sveumrules]

It depends on which metric you use. Fangraphs uses UZR in their WAR calculation while BRef uses DRS. Last three years numbers are...

 

2016 LF: -3 UZR, +6 DRS

2015 RF: -6 UZR, +1 DRS

2014 RF: -7 UZR, -8 DRS

 

Over his 8,173 career inning in LF Braun is at -23 UZR & +29 DRS, so one system has seen him as below average and the other has seen him as above average.

 

My best guess is that Braun is about average defensively as a LF. Some years a little above, some years a little below depending on batted ball opportunity & health. He has definitely improved since he first started out there in my observation.

[MrTPlush]

The fact Encarnacion only got 3 years is pretty problematic for us trying to trade Braun. If teams are only giving a DH(hypothetically should age better) 3 years how interested can teams possibly be in Braun for 4 years and all his health issues?

 

It seems those rumors of little to no interest in Braun are probably right judging by Encarnacion's deal.

[splitterpfj]

The fact Encarnacion only got 3 years is pretty problematic for us trying to trade Braun. If teams are only giving a DH(hypothetically should age better) 3 years how interested can teams possibly be in Braun for 4 years and all his health issues?

 

It seems those rumors of little to no interest in Braun are probably right judging by Encarnacion's deal.

 

Since Encarnacion is a year older, and he got this money for three years, I would bet Braun, as a free agent, would get similar dollars, for four years - I don't see a reason why he wouldn't.

 

The thing is, if you go to trade a guy who's signed for at or near what the market is paying - the prospects you get back are a premium for the other team - the talent they give up is above and beyond the money the player is worth .... and then they'll pay him the money too.

 

To get the kind of talent you'd want in the deal, I think the Brewers already knew they'd have to take back some money in the trade - if the rumors concerning LA were true, Milwaukee had already acknowledged that by agreeing to take back Brandon McCarthy.

 

The market for power bats has been slow this winter - Encarnacion sitting as long as he did was Exhibit A. "They" are talking about a glut of power hitters, and a glut of available outfielders. Everyone jumped on bullpen guys again, the White Sox sold big twice, the Dodgers paid big to keep what they already had - and really not a lot more until this deal for Encarnacion.

 

The Brewers aren't going to give Braun away, if the market doesn't go their way this winter, then we'll watch Ryan Braun play some more baseball.

[MKE81]

The fact Encarnacion only got 3 years is pretty problematic for us trying to trade Braun. If teams are only giving a DH(hypothetically should age better) 3 years how interested can teams possibly be in Braun for 4 years and all his health issues?

 

It seems those rumors of little to no interest in Braun are probably right judging by Encarnacion's deal.

 

Since Encarnacion is a year older, and he got this money for three years, I would bet Braun, as a free agent, would get similar dollars, for four years - I don't see a reason why he wouldn't.

 

The thing is, if you go to trade a guy who's signed for at or near what the market is paying - the prospects you get back are a premium for the other team - the talent they give up is above and beyond the money the player is worth .... and then they'll pay him the money too.

 

To get the kind of talent you'd want in the deal, I think the Brewers already knew they'd have to take back some money in the trade - if the rumors concerning LA were true, Milwaukee had already acknowledged that by agreeing to take back Brandon McCarthy.

 

The market for power bats has been slow this winter - Encarnacion sitting as long as he did was Exhibit A. "They" are talking about a glut of power hitters, and a glut of available outfielders. Everyone jumped on bullpen guys again, the White Sox sold big twice, the Dodgers paid big to keep what they already had - and really not a lot more until this deal for Encarnacion.

 

The Brewers aren't going to give Braun away, if the market doesn't go their way this winter, then we'll watch Ryan Braun play some more baseball.

Agreed. Teams tried to acquire Lucroy for below value and Stearns wouldn't allow that to happen. Same applies to Braun. Stearns understands what they're worth at a realistic level, not wishful thinking and won't part with him until that's on the table

[MKE81]

It depends on which metric you use. Fangraphs uses UZR in their WAR calculation while BRef uses DRS. Last three years numbers are...

 

2016 LF: -3 UZR, +6 DRS

2015 RF: -6 UZR, +1 DRS

2014 RF: -7 UZR, -8 DRS

 

Over his 8,173 career inning in LF Braun is at -23 UZR & +29 DRS, so one system has seen him as below average and the other has seen him as above average.

 

My best guess is that Braun is about average defensively as a LF. Some years a little above, some years a little below depending on batted ball opportunity & health. He has definitely improved since he first started out there in my observation.

Greatly appreciate the time and effort retrieving and listing the data. My eyes always said he was solid at best so never understood the negative ratings. I can see average metrics as there are issues with perfecting it but below average doesn't make sense to me.

[brewcrewdue80]

Encarnacion | 2017 Age: 34 | 3 years/65 million

 

2015-16: 269/364/542 | 142 wRC+ | 1326 PAs | +60 Off | 8.4 fWAR

 

Braun | 2017 Age: 33 | 4 years/76 million

 

2015-16: 295/361/518 | 131 wRC+ | 1132 PAs | +44 Off | 6.1 fWAR

 

The only real edge Braun has on Encarnacion is that he is one notch higher on the defensive spectrum & his offensive game is more well rounded. He is a year younger, but has a worse recent track record in both performance & health so I think that is more or less a wash.

 

If the market just valued EE's skillset at 3/65 it's pretty easy to see why there haven't been any takers on Braun at 4/76. It definitely seems that unless we take on a deadweight contract in return or eat a decent portion of Braun's remaining commitment we aren't getting any prospects of note in any hypothetical trade.

 

Why is EE given a 142wrc+ vs Braun's 131? When Braun higher BA and slightly lower Slg, but OB pretty much the same?

 

Is the Wrc based on the fact of 200+PAs? or that much higher for the little Slg advantage?

 

That is something I wanted to point out. The extra PAs result in more chances of earning WAR. I'm actually surprised the PAs are so little to Encarnacion's advantage because he's played 31 games more than Braun, in the AL and just shy only of 200PAs. There shouldn't be a big advantage with 3rd to 4th as EE batted 3rd this season often. And when you add Braun has 13Sub game ABs while EE has only 2 such. It's really a 42game advantage. So doing the math, I'm shocked it's only about .1 PA a game difference between the two. Especially a good offensive team the last 2 years vs. the Brewers.

 

Well, I'll consider that a lesson for Fantasy baseball.

[logan82]

Encarnacion | 2017 Age: 34 | 3 years/65 million

 

2015-16: 269/364/542 | 142 wRC+ | 1326 PAs | +60 Off | 8.4 fWAR

 

Braun | 2017 Age: 33 | 4 years/76 million

 

2015-16: 295/361/518 | 131 wRC+ | 1132 PAs | +44 Off | 6.1 fWAR

 

The only real edge Braun has on Encarnacion is that he is one notch higher on the defensive spectrum & his offensive game is more well rounded. He is a year younger, but has a worse recent track record in both performance & health so I think that is more or less a wash.

 

If the market just valued EE's skillset at 3/65 it's pretty easy to see why there haven't been any takers on Braun at 4/76. It definitely seems that unless we take on a deadweight contract in return or eat a decent portion of Braun's remaining commitment we aren't getting any prospects of note in any hypothetical trade.

 

Why is EE given a 142wrc+ vs Braun's 131? When Braun higher BA and slightly lower Slg, but OB pretty much the same?

 

Is the Wrc based on the fact of 200+PAs? or that much higher for the little Slg advantage?

 

That is something I wanted to point out. The extra PAs result in more chances of earning WAR. I'm actually surprised the PAs are so little to Encarnacion's advantage because he's played 31 games more than Braun, in the AL and just shy only of 200PAs. There shouldn't be a big advantage with 3rd to 4th as EE batted 3rd this season often. And when you add Braun has 13Sub game ABs while EE has only 2 such. It's really a 42game advantage. So doing the math, I'm shocked it's only about .1 PA a game difference between the two. Especially a good offensive team the last 2 years vs. the Brewers.

 

Well, I'll consider that a lesson for Fantasy baseball.

EE had a much better 2015 than Braun. Almost 20 points of OBP and 60 points of SLG.

[adambr2]

The fact Encarnacion only got 3 years is pretty problematic for us trying to trade Braun. If teams are only giving a DH(hypothetically should age better) 3 years how interested can teams possibly be in Braun for 4 years and all his health issues?

 

It seems those rumors of little to no interest in Braun are probably right judging by Encarnacion's deal.

 

Since Encarnacion is a year older, and he got this money for three years, I would bet Braun, as a free agent, would get similar dollars, for four years - I don't see a reason why he wouldn't.

 

The thing is, if you go to trade a guy who's signed for at or near what the market is paying - the prospects you get back are a premium for the other team - the talent they give up is above and beyond the money the player is worth .... and then they'll pay him the money too.

 

To get the kind of talent you'd want in the deal, I think the Brewers already knew they'd have to take back some money in the trade - if the rumors concerning LA were true, Milwaukee had already acknowledged that by agreeing to take back Brandon McCarthy.

 

The market for power bats has been slow this winter - Encarnacion sitting as long as he did was Exhibit A. "They" are talking about a glut of power hitters, and a glut of available outfielders. Everyone jumped on bullpen guys again, the White Sox sold big twice, the Dodgers paid big to keep what they already had - and really not a lot more until this deal for Encarnacion.

 

The Brewers aren't going to give Braun away, if the market doesn't go their way this winter, then we'll watch Ryan Braun play some more baseball.

Agreed. Teams tried to acquire Lucroy for below value and Stearns wouldn't allow that to happen. Same applies to Braun. Stearns understands what they're worth at a realistic level, not wishful thinking and won't part with him until that's on the table

 

I think the Braun situation is quite a bit different than Lucroy in that there was never a question about Lucroy's surplus value, it was always a matter of posturing, just like any other trade. The Braun lowball offers, to an extent, reflect some genuine concerns about him.

 

I do agree that Braun isn't going anywhere unless Stearns gets good value in return, but I don't think he will/should hesitate to eat plenty of the contract to make that happen if he needs to, especially on the back end of Braun's deal.

 

Someone brought up a good point that the Indians do forfeit their very late 1st round pick to sign EE. So that at least provides us with a comparitive base to point to on what we should ask for if we were eating none of the contract.

[JosephC]

The Rangers were one of the finalists for Encarnacion so we'll see if they will ask about Braun. The Rangers had a big hole at DH last year but the talk was that they would eventually look to move Choo there, which made the pursuit of Encarnacion somewhat surprising. They obviously feel they need another big bat in the lineup if they were after Encarnacion.

 

What makes this deal tough is that the Rangers really cleared out their farm system last year. There are still some really attractive pieces left but it's weak enough where I feel they would probably take their top hitting and pitching prospects off the table right from the beginning (Tavares, Ibanez, Mendez, Jurado). The Rangers also don't have a bad contract to dump on the Brewers, so Attanasio would have to write Texas a big check to get anything worthwhile back in the trade.

 

To approve this trade Braun would probably ask that the team option be turned into a player option in 2021. In this type of deal I don't think either team would be motivated to throw more money at him because there aren't any high profile names going to Milwaukee which would make the Brewers more hesitant to add even more money. I have no idea what Braun's relationship is with Lucroy and Gomez...but it's Dallas/Fort Worth (5th biggest television market), a state with no income tax (probably means an additional $3,000,000 to him over the life of his contract) and a chance to play for a winner. I think he'd be nuts to turn down the opportunity but if he would it kills this deal.

 

Texas gets:

OF-Ryan Braun

12 million dollars

 

Milwaukee gets:

1B-Ronald Guzman

LHP-Joel Palumbo (#9 prospects in Rangers system on the Baseball America update)

3B-Kole Enright (3rd round pick in 2016)

 

Personally I wouldn't be very happy with this deal. I would be happy with a deal if Stearns could get both 1B-Guzman and RHP-Ariel Jurado out of the Rangers which I don't think would happen but wouldn't be totally out of the question.

[MadThinker88]

The Rangers were one of the finalists for Encarnacion so we'll see if they will ask about Braun. The Rangers had a big hole at DH last year but the talk was that they would eventually look to move Choo there, which made the pursuit of Encarnacion somewhat surprising. They obviously feel they need another big bat in the lineup if they were after Encarnacion.

 

What makes this deal tough is that the Rangers really cleared out their farm system last year. There are still some really attractive pieces left but it's weak enough where I feel they would probably take their top hitting and pitching prospects off the table right from the beginning (Tavares, Ibanez, Mendez, Jurado). The Rangers also don't have a bad contract to dump on the Brewers, so Attanasio would have to write Texas a big check to get anything worthwhile back in the trade.

 

To approve this trade Braun would probably ask that the team option be turned into a player option in 2021. In this type of deal I don't think either team would be motivated to throw more money at him because there aren't any high profile names going to Milwaukee which would make the Brewers more hesitant to add even more money. I have no idea what Braun's relationship is with Lucroy and Gomez...but it's Dallas/Fort Worth (5th biggest television market), a state with no income tax (probably means an additional $3,000,000 to him over the life of his contract) and a chance to play for a winner. I think he'd be nuts to turn down the opportunity but if he would it kills this deal.

 

Texas gets:

OF-Ryan Braun

12 million dollars

 

Milwaukee gets:

1B-Ronald Guzman

LHP-Joel Palumbo (#9 prospects in Rangers system on the Baseball America update)

3B-Kole Enright (3rd round pick in 2016)

 

Personally I wouldn't be very happy with this deal. I would be happy with a deal if Stearns could get both 1B-Guzman and RHP-Ariel Jurado out of the Rangers which I don't think would happen but wouldn't be totally out of the question.

 

Nice idea, don't see it happening.

Rumor has it the Rangers will bring Napoli back after missing out on EE.. Fewer years, less of a cost than Braun, and they keep their prosepcts for other needs/ usage.

[brewcrewdue80]

Encarnacion | 2017 Age: 34 | 3 years/65 million

 

2015-16: 269/364/542 | 142 wRC+ | 1326 PAs | +60 Off | 8.4 fWAR

 

Braun | 2017 Age: 33 | 4 years/76 million

 

2015-16: 295/361/518 | 131 wRC+ | 1132 PAs | +44 Off | 6.1 fWAR

 

The only real edge Braun has on Encarnacion is that he is one notch higher on the defensive spectrum & his offensive game is more well rounded. He is a year younger, but has a worse recent track record in both performance & health so I think that is more or less a wash.

 

If the market just valued EE's skillset at 3/65 it's pretty easy to see why there haven't been any takers on Braun at 4/76. It definitely seems that unless we take on a deadweight contract in return or eat a decent portion of Braun's remaining commitment we aren't getting any prospects of note in any hypothetical trade.

 

Why is EE given a 142wrc+ vs Braun's 131? When Braun higher BA and slightly lower Slg, but OB pretty much the same?

 

Is the Wrc based on the fact of 200+PAs? or that much higher for the little Slg advantage?

 

That is something I wanted to point out. The extra PAs result in more chances of earning WAR. I'm actually surprised the PAs are so little to Encarnacion's advantage because he's played 31 games more than Braun, in the AL and just shy only of 200PAs. There shouldn't be a big advantage with 3rd to 4th as EE batted 3rd this season often. And when you add Braun has 13Sub game ABs while EE has only 2 such. It's really a 42game advantage. So doing the math, I'm shocked it's only about .1 PA a game difference between the two. Especially a good offensive team the last 2 years vs. the Brewers.

 

Well, I'll consider that a lesson for Fantasy baseball.

EE had a much better 2015 than Braun. Almost 20 points of OBP and 60 points of SLG.

 

the stats quoted are of 2015-2016.

 

Just to not add another post, the ask is why 142-131 if Braun has +26pts BA -3pts OB and -26pts slg. Why is Encarnacion given the 11pt advantage wrc+?

 

Slg really that much a positive over the BA? Or is it the PA advantage?

[logan82]

Yes, I know. The reason the stats ovef 2015-2016 were better for EE was because his 2015 was much better than Braun's.

[Lee16]

It's looking more and more like the writing is on the wall. I think we should just get used to the idea of seeing Braun in a Brewer jersey for a few more years. Would have been nice to continue reloading the team by trading him, but on the bright side he seems popular enough and someone has to get the casual fans to buy tickets.

[billymac]

I have confidence that Stearns will move him if he feels he needs to. We still have almost 3 months before the season starts, lots of injuries and needs pop up in spring training. He might have to go lower level prospects versus the higher ranked ones as it gets closer to season start. If he can move Jason Rodgers, Segura, etc and get quality talent back for them, he can pull this one off.

[adambr2]

Hopefully Dozier ends up in Washington or St. Louis. The Dodgers could turn to Braun if they feel the NL is passing them by and get desperate to make a big move.

[brewcrewdue80]

Hopefully Dozier ends up in Washington or St. Louis. The Dodgers could turn to Braun if they feel the NL is passing them by and get desperate to make a big move.

 

Im going to assume that if the Dodgers dont get Dozier, its them not wanting to part with the same prospect Stearns is asking for.

[adambr2]

Hopefully Dozier ends up in Washington or St. Louis. The Dodgers could turn to Braun if they feel the NL is passing them by and get desperate to make a big move.

 

Im going to assume that if the Dodgers dont get Dozier, its them not wanting to part with the same prospect Stearns is asking for.

 

We aren't going to be able to get the kind of quality prospect for Braun as Dozier will command. Just ain't gonna happen. Not without eating more than half of his salary.

 

Frankly if every team was taking on the salary of the acquired players, I'd trade Braun for Puig and McCarthy without really caring who the 2 prospects are.

[MNBrew]

Hopefully Dozier ends up in Washington or St. Louis. The Dodgers could turn to Braun if they feel the NL is passing them by and get desperate to make a big move.

 

Im going to assume that if the Dodgers dont get Dozier, its them not wanting to part with the same prospect Stearns is asking for.

 

We aren't going to be able to get the kind of quality prospect for Braun as Dozier will command. Just ain't gonna happen. Not without eating more than half of his salary.

 

Frankly if every team was taking on the salary of the acquired players, I'd trade Braun for Puig and McCarthy without really caring who the 2 prospects are.

This sounds like you're more interested in just getting a trade done rather than getting an optimal return. If that's the angle you're advocating, I can't buy into that.

 

Braun's a Top 10 offensive bat who's worth more than an injured Garza-type SP, and a former phenom who hasn't convinced anyone that he's sufficiently grown up, and 2 whatever-they'll-give-us (potentially non-premium) prospects.

[FVBrewerFan]

Braun's a Top 10 offensive bat who's worth more than an injured Garza-type SP, and a former phenom who hasn't convinced anyone that he's sufficiently grown up, and 2 whatever-they'll-give-us (potentially non-premium) prospects.

 

Apparently he isn't worth more, since they've been trying to trade him since July.