What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[FVBrewerFan]

This has been said by others somewhere in these 40 pages, but what the heck, nothing else going on. I actually think it's the opposite. Brewers fans are more jaded about Braun than fans in LA, SF, or other places. To them, he's just one more PED guy out of dozens and dozens. Whereas, to Brewers fans, it was more personal. Nobody cares. If he rakes for their team they will love him. If he's injury riddled or fizzles out the last couple years the fans will turn on him. But that's all based on production, nothing else.

[adambr2]

To them, he's just one more PED guy out of dozens and dozens.

 

IMO the disproportionate amount of boos he gets just about everywhere else says otherwise.

[MrTPlush]

“At this point, my expectation is that Ryan is going to be here next year and going forward. My general thinking right now is that if we were going to get a deal that was going to motivate us to move Ryan, we likely would’ve already gotten it. Obviously we need to keep listening, that’s my job, I generally answer the phone when other GMs call and want to talk about any of our players. Given the offers that have come to us at this point, and he’s still a Brewer, I expect that he’s going to be a Brewer going forward.”

brewcrewball.com

 

Typical comments honestly

[pacopete4]

To them, he's just one more PED guy out of dozens and dozens.

 

IMO the disproportionate amount of boos he gets just about everywhere else says otherwise.

 

 

Other than STL and CHI, I don't really notice it anymore. And those places always boo'd him. He comes to your team and hits like he has for us and Braun jerseys would be flying off the shelves. Lets not kid ourselves with this. No different than Krod, who is a piece of trash, and people in Milwaukee loved him.

[pacopete4]

“At this point, my expectation is that Ryan is going to be here next year and going forward. My general thinking right now is that if we were going to get a deal that was going to motivate us to move Ryan, we likely would’ve already gotten it. Obviously we need to keep listening, that’s my job, I generally answer the phone when other GMs call and want to talk about any of our players. Given the offers that have come to us at this point, and he’s still a Brewer, I expect that he’s going to be a Brewer going forward.”

brewcrewball.com

 

Typical comments honestly

 

 

Hmm.. I thought it was more telling than typical. Kind've backs up with what you've said for awhile that the deals just are not there for him. Teams aren't willing to part with anything of real value.

[MrTPlush]

Only notable sentence was the second one just because I think it is probably true. The rest is just fluff/garbage that any person would say.

[adambr2]

The 2 Fangraphs projections for Braun have him as either a 1.9 or 1.7 WAR player in 2017, which would be a disturbing trend for a player nearing his mid 30s. You can understand why teams are hesitant to invest in him.

 

I'm all for not taking a bad deal but I'd hate to see them turn down a decent deal just because it wasn't as much as they had hoped. I think it's very possible we end up kicking ourselves that the August deal did not get done.

[pacopete4]

The 2 Fangraphs projections for Braun have him as either a 1.9 or 1.7 WAR player in 2017, which would be a disturbing trend for a player nearing his mid 30s. You can understand why teams are hesitant to invest in him.

 

I'm all for not taking a bad deal but I'd hate to see them turn down a decent deal just because it wasn't as much as they had hoped. I think it's very possible we end up kicking ourselves that the August deal did not get done.

 

 

And very possible he's a .900+ OPS player again and a team that can't hit lefties like the Dodgers ponie up some player should for him.

 

Fangraphs projections can lick em. Look at his numbers since beginning to get health. Numbers are trending up, not down. Offensively AND defensively.

[MrTPlush]

Well the only way we don't regret it is if, in the next 4 years, Braun leads us to the playoffs as at least a 3 WAR player. Because if that doesn't happen he provides nothing to the end goal. I guess you could feel neutral on the whole situation if he mashes, but really it's all about getting to the postseason.

[adambr2]

The 2 Fangraphs projections for Braun have him as either a 1.9 or 1.7 WAR player in 2017, which would be a disturbing trend for a player nearing his mid 30s. You can understand why teams are hesitant to invest in him.

 

I'm all for not taking a bad deal but I'd hate to see them turn down a decent deal just because it wasn't as much as they had hoped. I think it's very possible we end up kicking ourselves that the August deal did not get done.

 

 

And very possible he's a .900+ OPS player again and a team that can't hit lefties like the Dodgers ponie up some player should for him.

 

Fangraphs projections can lick em. Look at his numbers since beginning to get health. Numbers are trending up, not down. Offensively AND defensively.

 

Yeah, it's possible. It's also possible he plays in 100 games and comes closer to his 2014 numbers. But their best guess is around a league average value player.

 

You do realize, these projections take a lot of data into account. Stats, trends, injuries, age, career history, everything. They're all a piece of the pie. They are not just drawing numbers out of a hat or making biased assumptions, and they aren't ignorant to the fact that Braun had a good 2016 season. The 'trend' is not everything. It's one piece of data but that's it...there's a lot more to it.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/projections/

[JosephC]

Last year Steamer (where these projections are coming from) projected Braun to finish 2016 with an .818 OPS so they missed that by nearly 100 points.

 

I also question the metrics that Braun will slash a .280/.349/.491/.840 and will be a sub 2 WAR player as a corner outfielder. Sorry, Braun's defense isn't so bad that it would knock down that type of an offensive performer that dramatically. Last year Braun's UZR/150 was on the negative side but it wasn't a huge negative (-3.3). His DRS last year was a +6. He has never posted a DRS negative season ever while in left field. Braun's .349/.491/.840 isn't worth 2 wins above replacement but Adam Eaton's .362/.428/.790 is worth 6 wins above replacement? I say bull to the metrics that say Eaton's defense and baserunning is worth an extra 4 wins when basically being limited to defense and baserunning. I would feel differently if we were talking about Alfonso Soriano's defense but Braun's defense just isn't that bad according to UZR/150 and DRS. This is one of the many reason's I keep moving away from fangraphs and look at Baseball Reference's WAR values. On the flip side of that is Matt Garza. In 2015 Matt Garza posted a pitiful 5.63 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Fangraphs somehow came up with Garza as actually being above replacement level with numbers like that (+0.6 WAR). Baseball Reference had him as a -1.7 WAR. I know all about FIP and "known outcomes," the theory behind it and that value calculations are largely based these statistics. But after watching Garza pitch in 2015, if someone is going to tell me that his pitching performance was 0.6 wins above replacement level my response is they better go back to the drawing board and work on their metrics a little bit more.

[brewcrewdue80]

The 2 Fangraphs projections for Braun have him as either a 1.9 or 1.7 WAR player in 2017, which would be a disturbing trend for a player nearing his mid 30s. You can understand why teams are hesitant to invest in him.

 

I'm all for not taking a bad deal but I'd hate to see them turn down a decent deal just because it wasn't as much as they had hoped. I think it's very possible we end up kicking ourselves that the August deal did not get done.

 

 

And very possible he's a .900+ OPS player again and a team that can't hit lefties like the Dodgers ponie up some player should for him.

 

Fangraphs projections can lick em. Look at his numbers since beginning to get health. Numbers are trending up, not down. Offensively AND defensively.

 

Yeah, it's possible. It's also possible he plays in 100 games and comes closer to his 2014 numbers. But their best guess is around a league average value player.

 

You do realize, these projections take a lot of data into account. Stats, trends, injuries, age, career history, everything. They're all a piece of the pie. They are not just drawing numbers out of a hat or making biased assumptions, and they aren't ignorant to the fact that Braun had a good 2016 season. The 'trend' is not everything. It's one piece of data but that's it...there's a lot more to it.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/projections/

 

The 3 biggest that should be in play for a projection are that, Stats, Trends, and Career History. Only 2014 as an OF, can you say Braun wasn't a 4WAR or better player, if played in 135 games or more. Stats, trends, and career history not getting an ounce of credit. 8 of 9 seasons.

I'm just going to go with every individual that is responsible for these computations, hate Braun....well dislike since hate is such a strong feeling, and when they do these projections give him the worst projection they get. Because that's what they want him with their dislike to become. Heaven forbid they post him as a 4WAR projection and then he does have that 2WAR season instead...the hate from all the people who rely on these model projections.

[adambr2]

That's a borderline conspiracy theory. Computations don't 'hate' Braun or want him to fail, they have no emotion. The only extent to which a computer cares about Braun's PED use is the extent to which it believes it will affect his 'regression rate.'

 

You also cannot just say, 'Well if you take Braun's games and project it out to 135 he is a 4 WAR player. Those games missed, by injury or suspension, matter. They figure in to projections as well.

 

Your last point 'Heaven forbid they post him as a 4 WAR projection and then he does have the 2WAR season..' . they already have. Braun was a projection darling, post-2012. I absolutely guarantee you that Braun's 2013 and 2014 projections were way, way higher than his actual production. They missed high. Last year, they missed low. Maybe he outperforms them this year too. If so, fantastic! But it's silly that people are borderline mad and offended that a computer thinks Ryan Braun will be a league average player in 2017 based on all available data.

[pacopete4]

No ones offended. Just that these projections are broaderline special. And people who really dive into them, well I have some ocean front property I can sell you here in Iowa if you'd like? No damn GM is looking at fangraphs thinking oh I better not trade for Braun now.

[MKE81]

Braun has performed at an AS level every year of his career except 2014 when he had multiple injuries he was playing through, later on having surgery for both. As long as he doesn't have an injury to that extent you pretty much know what numbers he's putting up. Players of his caliber don't fall off a cliff once they hit mid-30s. He's still in great shape and will continue to be in great shape. There's a mutual option with 4M buy out in the 5th year so I'm only looking at his deal from a 4yr perspective. Relatively healthy he's performing at a high level over his contract and allows for a stable hitter in the 3 hole to surround the young kids around. Agree, JosephC, Braun's LF defense isn't close to being as bad as what the typical person or metrics say. He's always been average to above average in LF. Additionally, his Steamer projection for next year is downright comical. Projecting him to put up numbers he's never put up his entire career outside of his injury riddled 2014 - projections significantly worse than his past season, in which he was healthy. WAR is completely useless to begin with but a projection of 1.7 compared to his past 2yrs of 2.9/3.2 is nonsense. 18th and 21st in MLB (overall) in wOBA/wRC+ but 58th in WAR - yeah, ok. Khris Davis is a half run behind Braun in WAR? Davis - who covers less ground in the OF, has a worst arm by far, is worse on the bases, has a worse hit tool but has more power (and we're talking 40HR vs 30HR not 40HR vs 20HR). And he's .5 WAR behind Braun. My stomach hurts from laughing.

 

Braun's been here 10yrs. He has established roots to a certain extent (ie he doesn't live here year round but is here plenty). He's never been your typical athlete in the sense he's always loved the city and the org he was drafted by and even signed that 7yr deal for much cheaper than what his performance commanded. His local investments being off the table since PEDs has nothing to do with anything. He'll make 130M+ as a player when his career is over. He's still involved in the community. While Braun comes across as west coast, Milw or bust for locations - things can change and change quickly. He's intelligent. He'll analyze every situation from every perspective to determine what's the best decision for him, as a player, and his family. His profession is such where relocation is extremely common. While I was cool with the Dodgers deal (and getting prospects to bolster the already great system) I'm a huge fan of Braun staying put for his career, especially if we're competing for the playoffs in 2019-2021.

 

I see his trade situation as somewhat similar to one aspect of Lucroy's but obviously Lucroy had half the control. There's been conversations regarding acquiring him but teams are clearly not offering what Stearns deems acceptable for his talent/contract, which is why Lucroy wasn't dealt before the season. When/IF that happens Braun will be moved. Regarding Stearns comments, I actually disagree with his second line for the simple fact that he has 4-5yrs remaining on his contract. Nobody has any idea how injuries will plague a team that aligns as a trade partner (not just LA) so thinking you're never going to get an offer to move him I don't buy. If Braun had 1yr or so on his contract I'd see that playing out but not 4-5yrs while still playing at a high level.

[MrTPlush]

Regarding Stearns comments, I actually disagree with his second line for the simple fact that he has 4-5yrs remaining on his contract.

 

He was referring to this offseason alone.

[LouisEly]

“At this point, my expectation is that Ryan is going to be here next year and going forward. My general thinking right now is that if we were going to get a deal that was going to motivate us to move Ryan, we likely would’ve already gotten it. Obviously we need to keep listening, that’s my job, I generally answer the phone when other GMs call and want to talk about any of our players. Given the offers that have come to us at this point, and he’s still a Brewer, I expect that he’s going to be a Brewer going forward.”

brewcrewball.com

 

Typical comments honestly

Sounds like a long-winded way of saying, "I'm not motivated to trade (Lyle Overbay, etc.)"

[MKE81]

Regarding Stearns comments, I actually disagree with his second line for the simple fact that he has 4-5yrs remaining on his contract.

 

He was referring to this offseason alone.

I could be wrong but that's not how I read it. Him stating that, present day, he expects Braun to be here in 2017 and "moving forward". I take that as him speaking beyond this off-season and season. Regardless, I think we can all agree that there's always a chance any player is moved regardless of what obstacles may be present or arise

[MKE81]

No ones offended. Just that these projections are broaderline special. And people who really dive into them, well I have some ocean front property I can sell you here in Iowa if you'd like? No damn GM is looking at fangraphs thinking oh I better not trade for Braun now.

Agree. At least speaking for me, I'm not offended because I can count the number of times on one hand that I'm on FanGraphs annually. Each team, like each large company, has their own in-house analytics and interpretation of that data. GMs aren't making decisions based on FanGraphs WAR, etc metrics because anybody on this planet with access to the internet can make the same decisions they do then.

 

I just find it hilarious some of the metrics that FanGraphs spits out

[brewcrewdue80]

That's a borderline conspiracy theory. Computations don't 'hate' Braun or want him to fail, they have no emotion. The only extent to which a computer cares about Braun's PED use is the extent to which it believes it will affect his 'regression rate.'

 

You also cannot just say, 'Well if you take Braun's games and project it out to 135 he is a 4 WAR player. Those games missed, by injury or suspension, matter. They figure in to projections as well.

 

Your last point 'Heaven forbid they post him as a 4 WAR projection and then he does have the 2WAR season..' . they already have. Braun was a projection darling, post-2012. I absolutely guarantee you that Braun's 2013 and 2014 projections were way, way higher than his actual production. They missed high. Last year, they missed low. Maybe he outperforms them this year too. If so, fantastic! But it's silly that people are borderline mad and offended that a computer thinks Ryan Braun will be a league average player in 2017 based on all available data.

 

A computer comes up with projections based on what someone inputs them to compute. What they put in value for X, Y, Z. And I'm suggesting the person's responsible for this input and receive feedback, take the feedback with the worst projection. Or pretty close. You run this program and it comes out with 1.4, 2.1, 3.0,.3.5, 4.1, 6.0 all based on a minor adjustment and then deciding to run with the 2.1WAR model. That is my suggestion.

Now I could be wrong and a computer puts out this information simply by putting Braun's 2016 numbers added to whatever it's history is. But I am thinking someone runs a model with saying Braun will be a .265 avg hitter. a .275 avg hitter. a .290hitter. a .310 hitter. Inputs whether he'll hit 23HRs or 33HRs. a .335OB or a .365 OB. The computer processes all that and the person running the model decides which outcome to post.

What if the model is based on the previous 3 seasons only? Or can be set that way by the same individual. So that 4th year can't predict a more positive outcome....Well in Braun's case 5th year.

 

But that's my take on how a prediction/projection model is figured. With input put in by a real person and a computer that computes what it is being presented with.

 

Now, if a Computer is just given a name and it spits out the final answer, that would be a different story. What is that new phone name? Alexis, What is Ryan Braun's WAR for 2017. What is Mike Trout's? And Alexis spits out 1.9WAR. And that is your definitive answer, I can't argue any human emotion or math and input helped lean the answer to that.

[MrTPlush]

Regarding Stearns comments, I actually disagree with his second line for the simple fact that he has 4-5yrs remaining on his contract.

 

He was referring to this offseason alone.

I could be wrong but that's not how I read it. Him stating that, present day, he expects Braun to be here in 2017 and "moving forward". I take that as him speaking beyond this off-season and season. Regardless, I think we can all agree that there's always a chance any player is moved regardless of what obstacles may be present or arise

 

I guess one could think just about anything from those comments. He hasn't gotten an offer good enough so he expects Braun to stay a Brewer. Which could be a day or forever. By the "if we were going to get that offer I would have expected it by now" was really just referring to this offseason.

[SandyTolan]

OK so I'm not the first person to suggest this but haven't seen much discussion of it either.

 

Given that Stearns is accumulating very high-upside middle infielders (Dubon, Diaz) who will soon be in the mid-to-upper minors, what's the chance Braun and Villar go to the Dodgers (or somewhere else) in a blockbuster? I think the likelihood of that is low, but let's say for a moment it happens. What could the Brewers get back?

[Jenkins5]

You hold onto Villar and hope he performs again like last year. He is too young, cheap, and controllable. If he continues his ways to mid season or for the full season, he will get a real nice package on his own. If we are packaging Braun with someone, it should be a starting arm. Villar has a place in our future right now, how many arms in the bigs can we say that about?

 

Bleacher Report had an article the other day about fair trades that work both both teams and I hated it.

 

Braun for 2b Calhoun & C Will Smith

 

Brewers settle for something like that, I'd be very upset. Throw Puig in the okay but neither of those 2 seem like they will offer too much outside of more depth

[JosephC]

OK so I'm not the first person to suggest this but haven't seen much discussion of it either.

 

Given that Stearns is accumulating very high-upside middle infielders (Dubon, Diaz) who will soon be in the mid-to-upper minors, what's the chance Braun and Villar go to the Dodgers (or somewhere else) in a blockbuster? I think the likelihood of that is low, but let's say for a moment it happens. What could the Brewers get back?

 

Well if you go by steamer/fangraphs projections.

 

Braun will only be a 1.8 WAR player in 2017. So assume 1.8, 1.3, 0.8, 0.3 WAR over the next four seasons. Saying a win is worth 8.4 million in 2017, 8.8 million in 2018, 9.2 million in 2019 and 9.6 million in 2020...that would put Braun's value over the next four seasons at 36.8 million (even though Baseball Reference's 4.4 WAR would have valued Braun at 35.2 million in 2016). Since Braun's contract guarantees 80 million dollars that puts Braun's value at -43.2 million dollars.

 

Villar may have posted a 3.9 WAR in 2016 but is only projected at 1 WAR in 2017. So assume WARs something like 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.4 over the next four seasons. That would bring his worth over the next four years to 63 million using the same dollar/WAR values used above. Then put Villar down for making 0.6 million next year and use the 40/60/80 estimate for the 3 arbitration years and over the four seasons the payout comes to 35.32 million...so put Villar's surplus value at +27.68 million.

 

So to package Braun and Villar together would be a negative proposition for the trading team because their combined value is -15.52 million dollars.

 

Brandon McCarthy is a -20 million dollars surplus value at this point so putting him in the deal swings the negative from the Dodger's side to the Brewer's side by about 4.5 million dollars. That's probably the equivalent of a 15'ish player on their top prospects list.

 

So, according to the steamers/fangraphs projections, I would say a fair deal would be something like:

 

Dodgers get:

OF-Ryan Braun

IF-Jonathan Villar

 

Brewers get:

RHP-Brandon McCarthy

RHP-Brock Stewart

 

Does that sound like a fair deal to you guys?

[MKE81]

You hold onto Villar and hope he performs again like last year. He is too young, cheap, and controllable. If he continues his ways to mid season or for the full season, he will get a real nice package on his own. If we are packaging Braun with someone, it should be a starting arm. Villar has a place in our future right now, how many arms in the bigs can we say that about?

 

Bleacher Report had an article the other day about fair trades that work both both teams and I hated it.

 

Braun for 2b Calhoun & C Will Smith

 

Brewers settle for something like that, I'd be very upset. Throw Puig in the okay but neither of those 2 seem like they will offer too much outside of more depth

Braun for Calhoun, Smith was the suggested "fair trade"? I'd love to know the reasoning behind that. Stearns would laugh at that and Braun would be a Brewer still. Look, I've included Calhoun and/or Smith in trade proposals I've had but they were the 3rd-5th pieces depending on a proposal. If it's Calhoun, Smith it would need to start with Bellinger or De Leon.