What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[JosephC]

Without going into detail, when doing this exercise myself I would project Braun to have a much higher WAR in 2017

 

Could you go into detail because I am curious how he is going to improve that much. His defense isn't going to get better. Probably slowly worse the next 4 years. The only way his WAR is going to be "much higher" is offensively. Braun is actually more like a 5.5 WAR player, but he sits out a good chunk of games these days it knocks it down a bit. Ryan Braun is not going to play 160 games to increase his WAR and he just isn't the magical hitter he was back in 2011/2012. Don't get me wrong he is still up there among some of the best, but he isn't going to revert back to those kind of numbers.

 

Higher WAR in 2017 not relative to Braun's 2016 WAR, but a higher WAR projection relative to what reilly projected. He has Braun at the following WARs over the next four years : 3.3, 2.8, 2.3, 1.8. I'd project 4.0, 3.2, 1.9, 1.0. I don't see Braun being that much worse in 2017 and only project a 0.4 drop-off from 2016 to 2017. However I anticipate Braun's WAR falling off much more dramatically later in the contract. Reilly's sum is 10.2 WAR, I'm at 10.1 WAR. Using Reilly's 5% increase in $/WAR over the next four years, the worth of Braun in each year would be 33.6 million, 26.88 million, 17.48 million and 9.6 million for a total of 87.56 million. Add in the deferred money aspect of the contract and I see him as having 8-10 million surplus value.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I think someone will become desperate enough for a big bat come the trade deadline.

[adambr2]

I think someone will become desperate enough for a big bat come the trade deadline.

 

Problem is it has to be a someone that Braun would rather play at than Milwaukee.

[LouisEly]

I think that will always be Southern California, especially if the Dodgers or Angels are contending.

 

His 10/5 rights will enforce next season, but I think the door to the Dodgers will always be open. Wide open.

[splitterpfj]

The problem with this entire scenario is that Cain has 10/5 rights.

 

That's true, and I hadn't realized it - forget Matt Cain.

[brewmann04]

I want a Top flight Pitching Prospects we need to get one in return for Braun

[adambr2]

I think that will always be Southern California, especially if the Dodgers or Angels are contending.

 

His 10/5 rights will enforce next season, but I think the door to the Dodgers will always be open. Wide open.

 

Yeah I agree, but I also think he's perfectly content to ride out his career in Milwaukee if he doesn't get the select few destinations that he's willing to go to.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

You guys really don't think he'd jump ship for a winner? Wow he's more loyal than I thought. I love Braun, but if I'm in his shoes I realize I'm not getting any younger and jump at the chance to be an integral part of a championship ball club.... IF that opportunity presents itself.

[brewcrewdue80]

Could anyone see a scenario involving Braun heading to Miami? I know they've got a pretty nice outfield already but their GM seems to not really have a long term plan regarding the franchise. Maybe a trade of Yelich to free up left, then have a Braun, Ozuna, Stanton OF? They'd have a few intriguing pieces down on the farm as well and Braun can't block a trade to them (unless it's the one team he recently changed).

 

I don't see the fit and Yelich is now their best player with JF's passing. So there's no reason to trade him especially just to acquire Braun.

 

San Fran to me doesn't have the firepower to get Braun, without Milwaukee taking a terrible contract in Cain. Taking a contract like Cain's and a 3rd team had better get involved.

 

Like I said, the Dodgers' moves this week would have to make Braun an afterthought. The winter meetings are over, and moving all their major contracts would need to happen for me to believe they will make a move on acquiring Braun. But that's like getting Ethier, McCarthy, Kazmir, and Puig all removed to then ask Milw the price for Braun without sending trash to us.

 

I fully expect Braun's WAR to be as well or better just for the fact of Villar, Broxton, Arcia, Santana's improved bats likely to bat ahead of him. With Santana or Thames protecting behind him being hopefully a much better contact hitter for avg than Carter was. Another Offseason to fix up more health concerns and maybe 142-147 games can be had next season. He won't be sitting 5days at the Trade deadline again which was 5games missed. It's just funny all the talk of regression to age when he's improved his batting each of the last 2seasons while aging. Approaching essentially his career average this year. A bat that seen only 25 total games below .900OPS with 9 coming in the first 11games. So talking 14 of the last 124 games where that OPS dipped below .900. The signs don't point to suddenly dropping off in numbers. I'd be concerned if there were a month or 2 where he was just a .725OPS type bat, but he consistently remained a .900 OPS bat all season long. I'm sure I've said something like this before, but just rehashing because with Braun imo now 99% remaining with the team, we can look forward to having this elite bat.

[torts]

getting him to his 10-5 rights wont make it hard to move if the brewers get an offer from a team he wants to go to... which is not much different than a limited NTC other than he can veto it.. but if he wants to go to LA or Miami, why would he veto that trade? I hope Braun never leaves and is this generations Yount. Milwaukee needs a player like that.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Rangers looking for DH/1B/OF bat and looking to move Jeffress.

 

What about a Braun for JJ, Yohander Mendez and a third piece. Maybe Anderson Tejada (#27 Ranger prosp. who looks like an Isan Diaz type and someone who could pop this coming year).

[Fear The Chorizo]

Braun had the 5th highest OPS among outfielders in all of MLB last season - his contract is actually team-friendly based on his current AND projected production, and he entered this offseason for the first time in recent memory healthy and without some injury/ailment that was going to require rest/rehab or even surgery.

 

Unless Stearns gets a haul from a team that Braun either can't veto a trade to or is willing to go, he'll be the opening day left fielder for the Brewers in 2017 and there won't be another team with a better offensive everyday left fielder in all of baseball. He'd anchor a lineup that will have a ton of moving parts until position battles and roles are sorted out, which is pretty much what the 2017 season appears to be meant for. Barring injury, I don't see his value being much different at the trade deadline or even next offseason compared to what it is now considering waiting a bit longer to truly put Braun on the market would mean the amount of guaranteed $ left on his contract would be lower.

[JosephC]

I'll take a crazy guess on how Braun would view trade partners:

 

Teams that Braun would waive his no trade rights for:

Los Angeles Angels

Miami Marlins

Chicago Cubs (should be very good through the next four years)

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Francisco Giants

 

Teams that Braun would request 2021 become a player option, but would back off if told that wouldn't happen:

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

Houston Astros (good market and interesting young team)

Texas Rangers

Washington Nationals

St. Louis Cardinals (not ideal market, but they have been so good for so many seasons...well run organization)

Arizona Diamondbacks (geography is a big factor here)

San Diego Padres

 

Teams that Braun would request 2021 become a player option, and would veto a trade unless the teams will willing to do this:

Baltimore Orioles (maybe not ideal in terms of geography, but a pretty good team in the AL East)

Detroit Tigers (northern market but it's a good franchise and the owner has spent some money and made some bold moves in the past)

Oakland A's (Braun probably wouldn't like the franchise, but it's got California going for it)

Atlanta Braves (Braun may have vetoed a deal in the past but the Braves were in a horrible year, it's a southern market with a new stadium)

New York Mets (New York market...but the Mets just aren't the Yankees)

 

Teams that Braun would probably just veto:

Tampa Bay Rays (would love the market, would hate the franchise)

Toronto Blue Jays

Chicago White Sox (think Braun would like Chicago, but the White Sox have just entered a rebuild)

Cleveland Indians (great last year but is it sustainable...not an ideal market)

Kansas City Royals

Minnesota Twins

Seattle Mariners (hardest team to make a guess on, not a bad market and they won 86 games last year but they are in the north...maybe shouldn't rule them out)

Philadelphia Phillies (love the market, but they've been a bad, bad team)

Cincinnati Reds

Pittsburgh Pirates

Colorado Rockies (might like Denver, but they've been under .500 for six straight seasons)

[pacopete4]

You guys really don't think he'd jump ship for a winner? Wow he's more loyal than I thought. I love Braun, but if I'm in his shoes I realize I'm not getting any younger and jump at the chance to be an integral part of a championship ball club.... IF that opportunity presents itself.

 

I think Braun values his family more. Seems to be that way ever since becoming a father. It would be interesting to see if he would change his tune but by what he has said so far, I would think it's Cali or bust for trading partners.

[MrTPlush]

You guys really don't think he'd jump ship for a winner? Wow he's more loyal than I thought. I love Braun, but if I'm in his shoes I realize I'm not getting any younger and jump at the chance to be an integral part of a championship ball club.... IF that opportunity presents itself.

 

I think Braun values his family more. Seems to be that way ever since becoming a father. It would be interesting to see if he would change his tune but by what he has said so far, I would think it's Cali or bust for trading partners.

 

Yup, if that full no trade clause kicks in it is a popular SoCal team or nowhere. It may be even more narrow than that. No chance he goes anywhere else even Miami.

[JosephC]

I don't see what valuing his family has to do with anything? Will he value his family less if they are living in Dallas instead of Milwaukee? It's not really that big of a deal to move, especially being a major leaguer with all the support they get from the franchise. His oldest child isn't even three years old yet, so it's not like he'd be pulling the kids away for friendships they had developed over the course of several years. Would his wife really be so much in love with Milwaukee over other cities? This is Milwaukee we are talking about. Aren't all his restaurant deals dead at this point? Didn't he lose pretty much all of his endorsement deals after the PED thing? Earning opportunities which would benefit his family would probably be far greater in most markets not named Milwaukee.

 

It's funny because the one place that nobody thinks Braun would be willing to go (myself included) is Toronto. But Braun's wife is from Toronto so if she wants to go there and Braun values his family that just might be the prime landing spot for the Braun's.

[NievesNoNO]

I don't see what valuing his family has to do with anything? Will he value his family less if they are living in Dallas instead of Milwaukee? It's not really that big of a deal to move, especially being a major leaguer with all the support they get from the franchise. .

 

 

Is it a big deal to move? I don't know, but I don't think any of us can make that determination. I would agree that the burden of much of the actual process is probably less for a ball-player than an average person.

 

I can see the other side of the argument and I understand letting the 10/5 go and keeping Braun. There's a solid argument to do that and it doesn't necessarily mean he couldn't be moved if the right situation presented itself later. For me, I just can't see losing essentially any remaining negotiating power with the best remaining potential trade asset on a team that's rebuilding.

[MrTPlush]

To Braun moving seems to be a big deal and being in an area he is comfortable in appears to be a big deal. For you maybe not...for him and his family it is.

[JosephC]

You guys really don't think he'd jump ship for a winner? Wow he's more loyal than I thought. I love Braun, but if I'm in his shoes I realize I'm not getting any younger and jump at the chance to be an integral part of a championship ball club.... IF that opportunity presents itself.

 

I'm totally with you on this. There is just nothing to tie Braun to Milwaukee at this point. He's not from here. His wife is not from here. His kids are so young that moving them would definitely not qualify as "uprooting" the family. The Brewers are not a good team and the earliest they will be a good team would probably be 2019. If they will be a good team it will probably all have to come from the farm system as this market will never provide enough money to lure big-time free agents here. All of his area restaurant businesses have seem to gone belly-up (not 100% sure about that, please correct me if wrong). His biggest endorsement deals in the states evaporated after the PED scandal. So what exactly is keeping him here, his love for the wonderful city of Milwaukee (LOL!).

 

He isn't getting any younger and his window to win is getting short. Of all the major league franchises, the Brewers probably have just about the lowest odds of winning a World Series within the next four years. Not to mention that there is the possibility that he could guarantee himself another 11 million dollars if he can get the 2021 season turned into a player option. There appears to be a lot more reasons for Braun to leave than there is to stay.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, I don't get the whole issue with "moving." Braun has a home in CA. Not even sure how much time his family actually "lives" in WI? I mean, this isn't 1952. Braun can live wherever he wants, or multiple places, and a charter flight is a couple hours from anywhere.

[brewerfan82]

There is just nothing to tie Braun to Milwaukee at this point. He's not from here. His wife is not from here. His kids are so young that moving them would definitely not qualify as "uprooting" the family. The Brewers are not a good team and the earliest they will be a good team would probably be 2019. If they will be a good team it will probably all have to come from the farm system as this market will never provide enough money to lure big-time free agents here. All of his area restaurant businesses have seem to gone belly-up (not 100% sure about that, please correct me if wrong). His biggest endorsement deals in the states evaporated after the PED scandal. So what exactly is keeping him here, his love for the wonderful city of Milwaukee (LOL!).

I'm not Braun, so I can't speak for him, but I think you are selling personal relationships short in your claim that there's "nothing to tie Braun to Milwaukee at this point." I moved to Baltimore 7 years ago because I was looking for a job and I knew one person there. They no longer live in the area, but I'm still there and a lot of that has to do with the people I work with and the people I've met since moving there. I'm happy having these people in my life everyday and if I left, I would be leaving those people and the comfort of knowing I have them around me. Braun's coming up on being in Milwaukee for 10 years. I'm sure in that time he's created similar relationships with people who live in the city and with whom he works. Yes, moving is a pain, but the reason most of us don't do it often is because we don't like moving somewhere where we need to reset and build up our social and support systems again from scratch. I don't blame him and wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't necessarily want to change locations if he doesn't have to.

[adambr2]

You guys really don't think he'd jump ship for a winner? Wow he's more loyal than I thought. I love Braun, but if I'm in his shoes I realize I'm not getting any younger and jump at the chance to be an integral part of a championship ball club.... IF that opportunity presents itself.

 

I'm totally with you on this. There is just nothing to tie Braun to Milwaukee at this point. He's not from here. His wife is not from here. His kids are so young that moving them would definitely not qualify as "uprooting" the family. The Brewers are not a good team and the earliest they will be a good team would probably be 2019. If they will be a good team it will probably all have to come from the farm system as this market will never provide enough money to lure big-time free agents here. All of his area restaurant businesses have seem to gone belly-up (not 100% sure about that, please correct me if wrong). His biggest endorsement deals in the states evaporated after the PED scandal. So what exactly is keeping him here, his love for the wonderful city of Milwaukee (LOL!).

 

He isn't getting any younger and his window to win is getting short. Of all the major league franchises, the Brewers probably have just about the lowest odds of winning a World Series within the next four years. Not to mention that there is the possibility that he could guarantee himself another 11 million dollars if he can get the 2021 season turned into a player option. There appears to be a lot more reasons for Braun to leave than there is to stay.

 

I don't know if it's so much loyalty as it is the fact that there are just not many great situations out there for Braun from his perspective, even if it's to go to a contender.

 

Look, I know time has passed and it's tempting now to evaluate Braun's value solely on his numbers, but we just can't. He's generally not liked around baseball and still booed pretty much anywhere he goes. I know it's easy to believe that fans in a city will warm up to a guy once he's there, and it's probably true, but some GMs just don't want to take that chance, and I'm not sure Braun does either. The Orioles won't even consider Bautista solely on how much their fans dislike him. Does Braun, at this point in his career, want to spring to a new city and risk being generally disliked there the rest of his career. Does he want to go to a new clubhouse with players that perhaps played against him in the 2011 NLDS? With players that played with Kemp?

 

Think of it from an opposing GM's perspective, too. 'What do my existing 24 other players think of this guy? Is it worth his salary to mix that into the clubhouse? Is my main trade acquisition this winter going to be booed in his own stadium every time he comes to the plate? That wouldn't be good.' Every GM even interested in Braun IS going to ask themselves these questions. It may not be the main consideration, but it is going to cross their minds.

 

We often lump Braun in with the plenty of other PED users around the league, and I can understand why. It only seems fair. Unfortunately, that's just not reality. Too many other extenuating factors - the MVP award that year, the NLDS, the star he was at the time, the early acquittal first, the passionate expressions of innocence and the implication of the collector, etc. We can dislike it or think it's unfair all we want, but Braun is essentially the poster boy, well, the #2 behind A-Rod, for PED shame this decade. Yes, it's probably unfair, but it's the way it is.

 

Right now, Ryan Braun isn't in position to play for a championship anytime soon. But he IS in a place that he's comfortable and familiar, where he's still well-respected in the clubhouse, and still (generally) loved by the fanbase. He's probably not going to win a championship here in the next 4 years, but he's going to be able to quietly ride off into the sunset and let more time pass for the sports world to forget about his indiscretions as he retires a Brewer legend.

 

He's not, IMO, going to risk any of that for anything other than what he perceives as a perfect situation, and he certainly isn't going to go to just any contender.

[pacopete4]

“At this point, my expectation is that Ryan is going to be here next year and going forward. My general thinking right now is that if we were going to get a deal that was going to motivate us to move Ryan, we likely would’ve already gotten it. Obviously we need to keep listening, that’s my job, I generally answer the phone when other GMs call and want to talk about any of our players. Given the offers that have come to us at this point, and he’s still a Brewer, I expect that he’s going to be a Brewer going forward.”

brewcrewball.com

[JohnBriggs12]

Given the negative national spotlight that Braun had a few years ago, Milwaukee might be the perfect place for him to play out the rest of his career. The fans have for the most part still embrace him here. If he goes to any major market, all that stuff will come up again. He's under contract for 4 more seasons, and he undoubtedly sees potential for this team to start it's turnaround well before he leaves.

[adambr2]

Given the negative national spotlight that Braun had a few years ago, Milwaukee might be the perfect place for him to play out the rest of his career. The fans have for the most part still embrace him here. If he goes to any major market, all that stuff will come up again. He's under contract for 4 more seasons, and he undoubtedly sees potential for this team to start it's turnaround well before he leaves.

 

Agreed. I don't think he's probably the best fit for the Brewers right now, but the Brewers are probably the best fit for him.

 

I'm pretty indifferent when it comes to the pitcher vs. DH argument, but it'd be a lot easier to hold onto Braun for 4 more years if we could DH him.