What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[FVBrewerFan]

IMO, there's a 99.9% chance Braun is traded.

 

Wish that was true, but I don't think the odds are anywhere near that high. If he wasn't traded at the deadline, or the winter meetings, I just don't believe the odds go up to 99.9%.

 

You don't want to be in a Brandon Phillips situation where you still have a decent player who's making a good chunk of money (potentially more than what he's worth) but really can't cut him and can't trade him.

 

Garza called, he strongly disagrees ; )

[splitterpfj]

Just for fun, let's say this ....

 

The Giants do have an obvious need in LF right now, there's no doubt about it - so let's assume the two teams have agreed Braun goes to SF, with Matt Cain coming to Mil, to offset some money.

 

Cain is due 20 million for this year, and he's got a 21M option for next year, that has a 7.5M buyout .... so Cain is a 27.5M commitment, which brings Braun's money down to 48.5 million remaining.

 

From there, what do you ask for? Do you ask for more/better prospects, do you try to get them to take Garza back, at the expense of the prospect return? Do you offer them some other pitcher, to take Cain's spot?

 

What's your deal?

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=sf

[pacopete4]

[TURBO]

Ryan Braun is the least versatile player on this team right now.

 

Scooter Gennett says hello...

 

[Austin Tatious]

Did you guys catch the David Stearns interview on WSSP, I think yesterday? I thought it was a good interview and he was reasonably candid. In the past, he'd speak in obvious generalities. How many times can his answer possibly be "we are trying to accumulate as much controllable talent as we possibly can?" But, he's getting better at the media thing and let out some goodies.

 

On Braun, he acknowledged he's had offers but that they weren't good enough to motivate him to move him. He anticipates Braun being here next year (and beyond). I like and applaud that Stearns is only moving Braun for the right package.

 

I'm not going to slit my wrists if Braun stays here. In fact, I'd want significant talent back or I wouldn't bother. The worst thing in the world is to move him as a salary dump.

 

There's talk on here whether Braun is worth $25 m or $30 m. It really doesn't matter. He's at $20 m without even addressing the deferred component. No one is seriously arguing that's an overpay. His contract is appropriate.

 

As for the Dodgers, I can't possibly imagine they wouldn't love Braun in their lineup. If you saw them in the playoffs, he's exactly the type of bat they were missing. That's my opinion. You're free to have your own opinions. You'd watch the Dodgers in the playoffs, and Gonzalez and Seager are obviously outstanding. Turner has been good. But they could really use a guy like Braun as a professional hitter type who can mash at a .300 clip with power and RBI. If they want to nickel and dime the Brewers, then that's their prerogative. But, their fan base can be ticked about it since they are in a window to win now. They sit there paralyzed and watch other teams hold up the trophy. With the Cubs being so strong, and the Giants being winners who solved their bullpen woes, the Dodgers need that hitter in my view. But, sure, they can be stingy with their prospects and not try to get over the hump.

 

Look at Bellinger. Good prospect. But he's not amazing with his .265 average. DeLeon is mid rotation. These guys are hardly untouchables. They are good, but not tremendous prospects. The Dodgers have built a tremendous system, depth wise, though. Sure, they have money for foreign guys like Alvarez. But they have an excellent idea on how to draft. I agree Walker Buehler may be a good guy to get from them.

 

Overall, if the Dodgers get Dozier as may be inevitable, at the summer deadline, they may have a come to Jesus moment and realize Braun or McCutchen would really help them and then they'd pay up.

[Austin Tatious]

Just for fun, let's say this ....

 

The Giants do have an obvious need in LF right now, there's no doubt about it - so let's assume the two teams have agreed Braun goes to SF, with Matt Cain coming to Mil, to offset some money.

 

Cain is due 20 million for this year, and he's got a 21M option for next year, that has a 7.5M buyout .... so Cain is a 27.5M commitment, which brings Braun's money down to 48.5 million remaining.

 

From there, what do you ask for? Do you ask for more/better prospects, do you try to get them to take Garza back, at the expense of the prospect return? Do you offer them some other pitcher, to take Cain's spot?

 

What's your deal?

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=sf

 

Good thoughts. I would not dump Garza here to lower the return. He's coming off the books anyway soon, plus the Brewers have financial flexibility with a low payroll overall. We should use our money flexibility to increase talent.

 

The Giants are more bold than the Dodgers. They can be decisive and make big moves. Smardizja. Cueto. Pence. Will Smith. Melancon. They'll move guys.

 

I'd ask for Brian Reynolds, Shaw, Beede and Cain for Braun and maybe a second tier guy. Other than Reynolds, the other prospects are not all that enticing. Beede may be a back of rotation guy or bullpen arm. Shaw is a fairly limited, unversatile bopper. Reynolds looks toolsy and good.

 

You get Braun on the Giants and absolutely watch out. They'll be stacked everywhere. I'd put them ahead of the Cubs at that point. On offense, they'd have Posey, Braun, Belt, Crawford and Pence. Bumgarner, Cueto, Smardizja in the rotation. Melancon and Will Smith at the back end. Yikes.

 

They'd have to pay up though.

[wallus]

I would prefer a package of lower level guys that can be kept off the 40 man for a long time. I would hate to acquire all of this talent and then have it get taken in the Rule 5 draft.

[MrTPlush]

Ryan Braun is the least versatile player on this team right now.

 

Scooter Gennett says hello...

 

 

To be honest...I would probably stick Gennett at 1B over Braun. Only because I know Gennett can move a little bit and can get grounders. Seriously though both are horribly unversatile. I actually forgot Gennett was even on the team for a second because I expected him ot be gone by now. Still do.

[MrTPlush]

 

Forgot to quote yourself.

[MrTPlush]

so Cain is a 27.5M commitment. From there, what do you ask for?

 

About 27.5M in surplus value. So two of their Top 4 prospects, most likely. I don't know if they really have the prospects to get one excited to pay $30mil though.

[pacopete4]

 

Forgot to quote yourself.

 

You have spouted off the same rehashed thing in 8 different threads. Trade Braun for crap because he can't stay healthy, he's old, his contract isn't as good as what you want to believe.. blah, blah, blah...

[MadThinker88]

so Cain is a 27.5M commitment. From there, what do you ask for?

 

About 27.5M in surplus value. So two of their Top 4 prospects, most likely. ..........

 

I think I hear Aerosmith warming up to do a live version of "Dream On"

[MrTPlush]

 

Forgot to quote yourself.

 

You have spouted off the same rehashed thing in 8 different threads. Trade Braun for crap because he can't stay healthy, he's old, his contract isn't as good as what you want to believe.. blah, blah, blah...

 

You do the same thing so what is your point?

[pacopete4]

 

 

 

You have spouted off the same rehashed thing in 8 different threads. Trade Braun for crap because he can't stay healthy, he's old, his contract isn't as good as what you want to believe.. blah, blah, blah...

 

You do the same thing so what is your point?

 

 

The point of the picture was to stop. That was the point. I thought the picture laid that out pretty nicely. Just tired of people claiming they "know" what Braun will fetch in a trade. Or that they "know" he will get hurt going forward. You're predicting. Like everyone else. Stop pretending to "know' everything.

[MrTPlush]

so Cain is a 27.5M commitment. From there, what do you ask for?

 

About 27.5M in surplus value. So two of their Top 4 prospects, most likely. ..........

 

I think I hear Aerosmith warming up to do a live version of "Dream On"

 

Way to elaborate.

 

Looking at it Touki Toussaint a few years back was pretty much given away to clear salary and was valued at $10mil. So if we are trying to get to $27.5mil(or close to it) they might have to give up all three of their top prospects. Seeing as that just isn't a likely scenario one could probably get two of them and then a really attractive piece or two from the lower minors.

 

That being said I don't like the Giants as a partner simply because I can't see them taking on a majority of the contract and I can't really see them piecing together $30mil in prospect value to make Braun cheaper. Partially because their system sucks and partially because it would make their system a bigger disaster.

[MrTPlush]

The point of the picture was to stop. That was the point. I thought the picture laid that out pretty nicely. Just tired of people claiming they "know" what Braun will fetch in a trade. Or that they "know" he will get hurt going forward. You're predicting. Like everyone else. Stop pretending to "know' everything.

 

Not true.

 

I pointed out valid concerns that will give GMs pause and why Braun's value is not as high as it looks at face value. I never said it was factual he will decline, never said he will get injured, etc. Actually I said he could stay healthy and keep producing a 4+ WAR. However what are the odds of that happening? Probably not as good as one would like for a team that is far from competing and has ten of millions invested long term into said player.

[pacopete4]

I pointed out valid concerns that will give GMs pause and why Braun's value is not as high as it looks at face value. I never said it was factual he will decline, never said he will get injured, etc. Actually I said he could stay healthy and keep producing a 4+ WAR. However what are the odds of that happening? Probably not as good as one would like for a team that is far from competing and has ten of millions invested long term into said player.

 

Why aren't there good odds? After having multiple surgeries over the previous off season, he was able to stay healthy enough to produce a pretty great season last year. A full off season this year of recovering completely and him stating that he feels strong as ever, and there is reason to believe that maybe he is on his regular track again. Great hitters like Braun usually don't have many valley's. He's a type of a hitter who could age very well since he uses all fields. Anyone should admit that chance of injury but he's 33, not 38.

 

 

 

 

Brewers aren't getting a De Leon or Bellinger at this point. If they are going to trade guys like that it will be for Dozier who fills a bigger need for them.

 

These are the type of comments I refer to. You can not definitively make this comment. Nor pretend to "know" what the Los Angeles Dodgers front office values more.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think we're at the opposite end of that 99.99% sure Braun will be traded this offseason. I think it's now become 99.9% certain he'll be on the team 2017.

Say what you want, overvaluing him, or that no-trade clause. The 6 team list 5 don't possess the firepower to get Braun and then there's the Dodgers. Who has moved on with Jansen and Turner signings, money spent that will haunt them honestly. No chance they get the value returned on their spending. Clearly well over the luxury tax they were just warned about. Going Rogue in that department. I think by the end of 2017 they will have released another costly contract and the damage in such cases will exceed the Brewers 2017 Payroll total alone! Already over 45million of salary commitments to players no longer on the team.

 

Here's at best the team that can trade for Braun after LA's removal. Seattle Mariners. Parting with Kyle Lewis and Luis Gohara plus a lower ranked put upside potential like Brayan Hernandez would do Braun being traded away justice. They could obviously use the Corner OF bat where Seth Smith and Aoki played the most for them last season. They are probably top 3 for oldest teams in MLB so they may not see age so much a problem.

The Brewers should have drafted Lewis over Ray and I know headlining the deal with another OF makes an already crowded Minors system that much more. But, unlike Ray, Lewis got off to a very promising pro start showing everything you would hope he brought with his bat. Lewis to me is one of those franchise bats we're are discussing, searching for. Never thought he or Groome were going to be there to pick, and we passed on them both.

[brwrsfan]

I may have a slightly different take on this, but I think for me it would boil down to two things that Stearns and his team need to figure out:

 

1 - When do they feel the team can realistically compete for a playoff spot?

 

2 - How do they predict Braun will be playing at that time?

 

I know we all have our opinions on both of these things, but what we think ultimately doesn't matter. It's what Stearns thinks - which unless someone here has inside information, none of us know.

 

If Stearns and the Brewers really believe that we can compete in 1-2 seasons (I don't unless a lot of things go perfect), but if they do....then they might be looking at Braun as a valuable leader/veteran that could help a relatively young team. If they feel that even with regression, Braun is still going to be a high level player for the next 2-3 years, again, they may not feel that they have to dump him for "the best offer" just to get rid of him. If Braun is still playing at a high level and we can compete with him...well then maybe we keep him.

 

I know there's been a lot of talk about how there's no room for him, he doesn't fit the mold, etc. But the fact is that nobody we have in our minor leagues is a legit "can't miss' prospect. Brinson maybe, and he's the closest, but after him....Ray? Phillips? Those guys are no sure thing by any means so Braun "blocking" them isn't a certain thing - plus there's also the possibility that Santana flops (as he has to some extent) or is traded as well.

 

I don't have the answers to any of these things, just my own opinions. There's a lot of variables and things to try to figure out. Could they wind up dumping him for a marginal offer? Sure. Could he remain a Brewer? Sure. Could they get him to waive the no trade clause in a few years? Sure (he has that mutual option that he could say he wants exercised or a player option for example). I think all of these are certainly possible.

[FVBrewerFan]

I may have a slightly different take on this, but I think for me it would boil down to two things that Stearns and his team need to figure out:

 

1 - When do they feel the team can realistically compete for a playoff spot?

 

2 - How do they predict Braun will be playing at that time?

 

I know we all have our opinions on both of these things, but what we think ultimately doesn't matter. It's what Stearns thinks - which unless someone here has inside information, none of us know.

 

Yea, not only do any of US know, Stearns himself doesn't know the answer to either one of those questions. I mean, #2 is easy, impossible to know what kind of player Braun will be 3-4 years from now.

 

But even #1, Stearns doesn't know how long this rebuild will take. If Hader, Woodruff, Williams come up and dominate right away the time line is moved up. If the next wave of SP isn't that great, or takes longer to develop it will take longer. Now add the bullpen and the line-up into the mix of uncertainty. That's why at this point of the rebuild he just doesn't know either.

[brwrsfan]

Sure, Stearns doesn't have a definitive answer on either. But it's up to him to figure out what he THINKS those answers are. He has to have some sort of plan in mind as to how long the rebuild is going to take (obviously just a plan, no way to ever know for certain).

[JosephC]

Just for fun, let's say this ....

 

The Giants do have an obvious need in LF right now, there's no doubt about it - so let's assume the two teams have agreed Braun goes to SF, with Matt Cain coming to Mil, to offset some money.

 

Cain is due 20 million for this year, and he's got a 21M option for next year, that has a 7.5M buyout .... so Cain is a 27.5M commitment, which brings Braun's money down to 48.5 million remaining.

 

From there, what do you ask for? Do you ask for more/better prospects, do you try to get them to take Garza back, at the expense of the prospect return? Do you offer them some other pitcher, to take Cain's spot?

 

What's your deal?

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=sf

 

I think reilly did a pretty good job with estimating a surplus value on Braun's contract in post 630. Without going into detail, when doing this exercise myself I would project Braun to have a much higher WAR in 2017 (and I would base it off the 4.4 WAR Baseball Reference credited him with in 2016 as I trust their WAR numbers more than fangraphs), but on the back end I would have a much more dramatic WAR dropoff. reilly comes up with about a 17-20 million estimate in surplus value, I would be lower and probably put it in the 8-10 million dollar range.

 

Cain's contract is 100% dead money. He has been a negative WAR pitcher and there is no indication that he'll turn that around. I can't look at that deal and say his contract is 27.5 million and the subtract out a value based on a net positive contribution in 2017 because there will be no net positive contribution in 2017. Including him is simply tacking on another 27.5 million dollars of surplus value on top of the 8-10 million of surplus value the Brewers should get for trading Braun. So based on my WAR estimates for Braun a Braun/Cain swap should bring back the Brewers approximately 35.5 million in surplus value.

 

Taking pointofpittsburgh's prospect surplus value table and assuming that the Giant's prospect rankings are currently accurate, #1 prospect Christian Arroyo is worth 20.6 million in surplus value and #2 prospect Tyler Beede is worth 15.6 million. So the two of them at 36.1 almost perfectly offset the 35.5 million estimate for Braun/Cain. The numbers suggest it would be perfectly reasonable to suggest a Braun for Cain/Arroyo/Beede swap. I personally would probably jump off Arroyo and prefer to have Beede, 1B-Chris Shaw, LHP-Andrew Suarez and maybe try to pry OF-Heath Quinn out of them.

 

The problem with this entire scenario is that Cain has 10/5 rights. Virtually a guarantee that Cain would demand that the option year be turned into a fully guaranteed year in exchange for him waiving his 10/5 rights...which in turn makes him totally untradeable.

[Jose Cardenal1]

RB for Cain, Beede, Shaw and Matt Krook

 

and then since you've added Cain to the SP mix I would definitely flip Guerra to say the Astros for Franklin Perez (a 50 Grade prospect who could explode this year).

[MrTPlush]

Without going into detail, when doing this exercise myself I would project Braun to have a much higher WAR in 2017

 

Could you go into detail because I am curious how he is going to improve that much. His defense isn't going to get better. Probably slowly worse the next 4 years. The only way his WAR is going to be "much higher" is offensively. Braun is actually more like a 5.5 WAR player, but he sits out a good chunk of games these days it knocks it down a bit. Ryan Braun is not going to play 160 games to increase his WAR and he just isn't the magical hitter he was back in 2011/2012. Don't get me wrong he is still up there among some of the best, but he isn't going to revert back to those kind of numbers.

[MilwaukeesBest]

Could anyone see a scenario involving Braun heading to Miami? I know they've got a pretty nice outfield already but their GM seems to not really have a long term plan regarding the franchise. Maybe a trade of Yelich to free up left, then have a Braun, Ozuna, Stanton OF? They'd have a few intriguing pieces down on the farm as well and Braun can't block a trade to them (unless it's the one team he recently changed).