What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[MillerParkSouth]

Anyone else noticed that basically none of the trade rumor articles in the national media even mention Braun at all? I wonder if it's because Stearns is tight lipped or if we're really planning on keeping him.

[JosephC]

I don't think there will be much talk about Braun until Edwin Encarnacion is signed. He is the last really good middle of the order bat left on the market. Once he's gone then names like Braun and J.D. Martinez will probably start popping up again.

[FVBrewerFan]

Anyone else noticed that basically none of the trade rumor articles in the national media even mention Braun at all? I wonder if it's because Stearns is tight lipped or if we're really planning on keeping him.

 

One of the things I love about Stearns, he does things quietly. As a young GM, must be tempting to toot your own horn, leak things to show how hard you're working, various possible deals in the works, etc. But that hasn't been Stearns M.O.

 

We have no idea. Either it's quiet because Stearns is keeping it that way, or it's quiet because there's nothing close to getting done. Winter meetings provided some urgency, and deals got done then and shortly after. Now we're in a period of time where there is no urgency again.

 

I also wonder if Mark A has (or will) go to Braun and say "Look, we tried to make a Dodgers trade work, it's just not going to happen. You know we're rebuilding, would you be open to Texas, Houston, Fill in the blank team?" Just not sure if the no trade clause is there so Braun at least has option to decline (or can accept), or if it's there because he absolutely will not go to any team not on the list. Just seems that a player at his level would want to have another (better) shot at winning a WS?

[MrTPlush]

Just not sure if the no trade clause is there so Braun at least has option to decline (or can accept), or if it's there because he absolutely will not go to any team not on the list.

 

I think he would consier trades to other teams, but a lot of the teams are definitely a big "no". The Braves inquired on a trade and it sounds like Braun squashed it before they really even talked specifics(in July). On the other hand his no trade list has changed every year(not fully) so I would say some teams on the no trade list could be considered. Though I would say he is probably pretty strict on his demands and depends on the situation.

 

On another note I don't think "being quiet" has anything to do with the GM. Rumors come from within from other lesser front office people(sometimes scouts/agents.etc.). It speaks more about the internal policy being held up and hiring the right(quiet) people. It was the same way with Doug Melvin as GM.

[A Swing and A Drive]

The problem with the Giants is, they have Arroyo, Beede and Shaw at the top of their list - any of whom would be an excellent, "second guy" in a Braun trade, but none of whom are, "the guy" that makes Milwaukee do the deal.

 

It just doesn't look like a match to me at this point.

 

 

Honestly, the Brewers would be lucky to get one of those level of prospects to headline a Braun trade.

[JohnBriggs12]

The guy they are shopping is probably Nelson in a package with Scooter. Though he struggled mightily the second half last year, Nelson's still has the kind of stuff that interest teams who think they can unlock the potential. Nelson's career is a bit like Jeff Samardzija, with periods where he looks close to ace-like followed by puzzling stretches where he can't find his command. Teams always seem to want those guys.

 

A lot of teams out there are looking for starters, and once the few obvious ones find homes, interest will pick up.

 

I don't see the Dodgers taking on Braun's salary now they are well over the luxury tax threshold and Brewers would be foolish to take back an equal amount, especially if the bulk of it with a guy like McCarthy is potential dead money.

[splitterpfj]

Honestly, the Brewers would be lucky to get one of those level of prospects to headline a Braun trade.

 

I don't believe that, and if it's true, then there's no reason to trade him.

 

Justin Turner has turned himself into a fine MLB player, but he is not, and has never been, in the class of Ryan Braun. If that player can get 64 million, guaranteed, at age 32 - he, with the 58 career big league home runs - if that player is worth 64 million dollars right now - no one can ever tell me Ryan Braun's contract is an unworkable obstacle.

 

PEDs? Oh please - how much did the Cardinals guarantee Jhonny Peralta again? How many times has Bartolo Colon been busted? I see he got another contract - again. It looks to me like Melky Cabrera is still employed too, so there's that.

 

Injuries? Yes, to a point - but the production is undeniably still there - this is still an outstanding power hitter.

 

If the Brewers truly can't get anything better than a guy like Arroyo or Beede, plus some guys who are well down the list in a weak farm system, for Braun, then Braun should stay right where he is.

[pacopete4]

Honestly, the Brewers would be lucky to get one of those level of prospects to headline a Braun trade.

 

I don't believe that, and if it's true, then there's no reason to trade him.

 

Exactly.

[MrTPlush]

Justin Turner has turned himself into a fine MLB player, but he is not, and has never been, in the class of Ryan Braun. If that player can get 64 million, guaranteed, at age 32 - he, with the 58 career big league home runs - if that player is worth 64 million dollars right now - no one can ever tell me Ryan Braun's contract is an unworkable obstacle.

 

So basically Justin Turner, who undoubtly has been better than Braun over the past three years(playing a more premium position), didn't get what Ryan Braun's contract calls for...however the contract is not an potential obstacle. Interesting.

[TURBO]

Ryan Braun - OF - Brewers

 

Ryan Braun has decided against participating in the upcoming World Baseball Classic, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network.

Braun played for Team USA in 2009 and 2013 and is also eligible to play for Israel, but instead he'll stay with his team for spring training. There has been speculation about a possible trade for a few months now, but Brewers manager Craig Counsell recently said that he expects Braun to stick around. That could obviously change if the right offer comes along.

 

Source: Jon Morosi on TwitterDec 14 - 11:41 AM

[adambr2]

I respectfully feel many here overrate Braun pretty substantially. While it's true he's still a very nice hitter, and that has value, that's about where his value ends. He doesn't play a premium position and his corner outfield is...passable, if I'm being very generous.

 

There's just too big of a gap between his 2015-16 value and his 2011-12 value for me to look at him as that kind of player anymore. He's clearly unlikely to ever be that player again. At this point, he's a good hitter with about a 135-140 game ceiling every year, who could probably benefit from playing in the AL.

 

His contract is not an albatross, but it's not the helpful bargain that some make it out to be. Smart GM's aren't looking to dole out high prospects for a pricey 4 year commitment to a 33 year old with frequent injuries who already can't be counted on for more than 140 games.

[LouisEly]

Braun is 33 not 32, and Dozier is 29 not 30, but that's not really the point here. But on a couple occasions you seem to fudge numbers a bit to make your argument stronger, not really sure why. Everyone makes mistakes but that seems kind of deliberate, just pointing it out.

It's called reading quickly when you are busy. I went to the Twins page on BR, not realizing the ages of the payroll page that came up first were ages next season. Then I typed in Braun in the search bar and looked at the last line.

 

Don't ever accuse me of that.

[LouisEly]

Dozier's owed $15M over the next two years. Braun is owed $76M over the next four. Dozier had a 6.5 rWAR last year - and 14.1 WAR over the last three years. Braun had 4.4 WAR last year, and 9.2 WAR over the last three years. Braun has missed 76 games over the last three years. Dozier has missed 18 in three years.

 

Of course, that's just my opinion.

1) Games missed are obviously factored into WAR, that's kind of redundant

 

B) WAR is pretty subjective, especially for defensive metrics. OPS more directly translates into runs scored, and runs scored more directly translates into wins.

 

3) Was last season an outlier for Dozier? Jumping from .762 to .889? Which leads to...

 

4) With Braun you are paying for consistency. Which Dozier will you get, 2015 or 2016? Those seasons are pretty different. And you get Braun for four years; Dozier might leave after two as a FA. You'll have to pony up a salary higher than Braun's just to make a QO to keep Dozier longer than two years, much less a long term deal. What will that cost in two years?

 

Just my rebuttal though.

[adambr2]

Braun is 33 not 32, and Dozier is 29 not 30, but that's not really the point here. But on a couple occasions you seem to fudge numbers a bit to make your argument stronger, not really sure why. Everyone makes mistakes but that seems kind of deliberate, just pointing it out.

It's called reading quickly when you are busy. I went to the Twins page on BR, not realizing the ages of the payroll page that came up first were ages next season. Then I typed in Braun in the search bar and looked at the last line.

 

Don't ever accuse me of that.

 

Seriously? You make the mistake, I politely point out that it's happened before, and you get mad at me for even mentioning it. Like I said, everyone makes mistakes, I only brought it up because I knew it had happened a couple times recently. I do think it's important to verify your data. That's how misinformation gets spread. I'll own up to it when I do the same.

 

It was never a big deal to me, I simply was saying as an aside, 'Hey, I'd verify your numbers more often.' Perhaps it was a stretch for me to suggest that you were fudging numbers on purpose, and if you were offended by that, I do apoligize, but there's no need to flip out on me for YOUR mistakes.

[MrTPlush]

Brewers aren't getting a De Leon or Bellinger at this point. If they are going to trade guys like that it will be for Dozier who fills a bigger need for them.

[HighHeat19]

Brewers aren't getting a De Leon or Bellinger at this point. If they are going to trade guys like that it will be for Dozier who fills a bigger need for them.

 

Agreed. I could see a trade of Verdugo, Lux, Will Smith, going to the Twins for Dozier, which is a priority in L.A.

 

Bellinger will be the immediate first baseman when Adrian leaves. Can't see him going.

 

DeLeon, age wise, is too close to the Majors. I don't see the Dodgers moving him.

 

Alvarez, was given too much $ by L.A. Can't see him going.

 

Maybe the crew gets to pick from the Dodgers scrap heap which doesn't include Bellinger, Alvarez, or DeLeon, and whatever maybe left after the Twins trade for Dozier. After that the Brewers will probably just keep Braun.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Honestly, the Brewers would be lucky to get one of those level of prospects to headline a Braun trade.

 

That might be, but that's also why I doubt Braun gets dealt. Whether they should or not, I have a feeling optics still matter with this one given Braun's stats last year and history with the Brewers. The Dodgers trade could have been sold (Puig's name and bounce-back potential helps, and Bellinger's a top-level prospect), but I doubt they trade Braun, given their current payroll, in anything that could be reasonably portrayed as a salary dump.

[splitterpfj]

On Justin Turner ..... position scarcity, which is certainly a big deal, is the only advantage I see for him over Braun. Turner is 32, he has appeared in more than 126 games exactly one time, he has had issues with his hamstrings, and he suffered a major regression against left-handed pitching this year, in what was easily the best season of his career. LA was the worst in the big leagues against lefties, and Turner was clearly part of the problem, (which is weird, his OPS against lefties has taken a big step backwards two years in a row, despite the fact that he's right-handed).

 

Whatever anyone thinks of Braun, I see Turner's new deal as an enormous gamble for LA - they've guaranteed 64 million to this player, through age 36 - I see that as "right place, right time", much more so than track record. They'd better hope they haven't already gotten the best he's got, and I would absolutely bet there's some dead money on the end of this deal.

 

On overvaluing Braun - speaking only for myself, I realize the Brewers aren't going to get a return even close to what the White Sox got twice already this winter, if anyone is expecting a prospect like Yoan Moncada, or Lucas Giolito in a return for Braun - don't.

 

Braun's still an impact hitter, for sure, and that has a great deal of value, but he's also 33, not late 20s, and his money, whether he stays healthy or not, is still much greater than guys like Adam Eaton and Chris Sale are being paid at this point. His contract isn't, "bad", yes I think he'd get a deal comparable to what he's signed for if he became a free agent - but keep in mind, that means that's where his value is, so if someone essentially pays full price for him by trading for his entire contract - the prospects they include are, if you will, "paying extra" to get Braun .... they're paying full price in dollars, so the players they include are above and beyond, in a respect.

 

Having said that - from the Brewers' point of view - this is still a man who makes a difference with his bat - unless you're motivated to be rid of the financial commitment, you don't move that player for prospects you're not sure of. I think Milwaukee is doing the right thing by stating they're only moving him to get talent, not to move money .... time will tell if they can get it.

 

I absolutely think Ryan Braun is worth a package that includes a player like Bellinger or De Leon, but I also think the Brewers would have to knock off that last year on his deal, or 20 million, to get the other team to agree to a deal like that - that's what Brandon McCarthy is for, in that scenario.

 

I get it, Braun's a unique case, and hard to match up in a deal. When you factor in his bat, but also his age, the financial commitment, and the short number of teams the Brewers can talk to - working a deal for him is not an easy game to play.

 

I think the Brewers are doing it right - they've got the payroll flexibility, and Braun's got the bat .... if the offers aren't what you want, then wait as long as you can.

[adambr2]

On Justin Turner ..... position scarcity, which is certainly a big deal, is the only advantage I see for him over Braun. Turner is 32, he has appeared in more than 126 games exactly one time, he has had issues with his hamstrings, and he suffered a major regression against left-handed pitching this year, in what was easily the best season of his career. LA was the worst in the big leagues against lefties, and Turner was clearly part of the problem, (which is weird, his OPS against lefties has taken a big step backwards two years in a row, despite the fact that he's right-handed).

 

Whatever anyone thinks of Braun, I see Turner's new deal as an enormous gamble for LA - they've guaranteed 64 million to this player, through age 36 - I see that as "right place, right time", much more so than track record. They'd better hope they haven't already gotten the best he's got, and I would absolutely bet there's some dead money on the end of this deal.

 

On overvaluing Braun - speaking only for myself, I realize the Brewers aren't going to get a return even close to what the White Sox got twice already this winter, if anyone is expecting a prospect like Yoan Moncada, or Lucas Giolito in a return for Braun - don't.

 

Braun's still an impact hitter, for sure, and that has a great deal of value, but he's also 33, not late 20s, and his money, whether he stays healthy or not, is still much greater than guys like Adam Eaton and Chris Sale are being paid at this point. His contract isn't, "bad", yes I think he'd get a deal comparable to what he's signed for if he became a free agent - but keep in mind, that means that's where his value is, so if someone essentially pays full price for him by trading for his entire contract - the prospects they include are, if you will, "paying extra" to get Braun .... they're paying full price in dollars, so the players they include are above and beyond, in a respect.

 

Having said that - from the Brewers' point of view - this is still a man who makes a difference with his bat - unless you're motivated to be rid of the financial commitment, you don't move that player for prospects you're not sure of. I think Milwaukee is doing the right thing by stating they're only moving him to get talent, not to move money .... time will tell if they can get it.

 

I absolutely think Ryan Braun is worth a package that includes a player like Bellinger or De Leon, but I also think the Brewers would have to knock off that last year on his deal, or 20 million, to get the other team to agree to a deal like that - that's what Brandon McCarthy is for, in that scenario.

 

I get it, Braun's a unique case, and hard to match up in a deal. When you factor in his bat, but also his age, the financial commitment, and the short number of teams the Brewers can talk to - working a deal for him is not an easy game to play.

 

I think the Brewers are doing it right - they've got the payroll flexibility, and Braun's got the bat .... if the offers aren't what you want, then wait as long as you can.

 

I agree with most of this. I've been somewhat in the camp of 'trade Braun now while you still can,' but if you can't get much for him, it's not worth dumping him and eating salary just to get something. He's still presumably tradeable in a year if he maintains simular production and health.

 

I'm more concerned about who he is blocking. We're pretty loaded with OF prospects that are going to need to play, and with Brinson, Broxton, Santana, Phillips, and Cordell (not to mention guys like Ray and Clark who are still a couple years away), it's hard for me to imagine only being able to guarantee two open spots in the OF for the next 4 years.

 

Braun would make an ideal DH, but unfortunately that's not an option for us, obviously.

[A Swing and A Drive]

The problem is its hard to see Braun's value ever being higher than it is right now over the duration of his contract.

 

 

Since his value by himself without taking any money on, is pretty much negligible, it leaves the Brewers and GM Stearns in a pickle.

 

 

1. Either you trade Braun AND take on money to net a 2nd-tier prospect or two.

 

2. Or you keep Braun as a middle of the order bat and hope for the best going forward.

 

 

Concern for the casual fans backlash probably has them leaning toward number 2 at this point if I had to guess.

 

If someone offers a prospect they really like, I think they wouldn't hesitate to move him, however.

[MrTPlush]

One problem is we are so loaded on OF prospects there has to be a few that can put up a 2 WAR or slightly more. If we are paying Braun $20mil and he slips down to be a 3 WAR player we are wasting $20mil when we could probably have someone do it for the league minimum. Holding onto him isn't the worst thing if he continues having a 4+ WAR while being healthy, but who knows if that can even happen.

[JosephC]

I think the Dodgers will move De Leon in a deal for Brian Dozier. If I'm in the GM chair 4 pitchers are locked into the rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, Julio Urias. Then they have 4 veteran candidates to pick from to lock down the last spot of the rotation: Alex Wood, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Hyun Jin-Ryu. Then after those 8 there are still three more candidates to pick from in Jose De Leon, Brock Stewart and Chase De Jong. The Dodgers will still have 8 candidates even if 3 of these players are moved prior to this season. One will probably be either Kazmir or McCarthy in a salary dump. No doubt the Dodgers would probably like to be rid of both at this point but finding takers for both would be difficult. Stewart or De Jong would be a good second chip or an excellent third chip in any trade. The two guys in the list of seven expendables that have real value are Jose De Leon and Alex Wood. Considering De Leon has less than one year of service time and Wood is in arbitration (and has had injury problems), De Leon is the more valuable and if you are going to make a trade for a significant piece this is the guy the trading partner is going to hold out for because they know all of what I've detailed above. The top four in the rotation are all controlled for multiple seasons (Kershaw can opt-out but does anyone see the Dodgers letting him walk away?), which makes De Leon an expendable piece.

 

I realize some folks can make a totally valid argument that Brian Dozier played over his head last year and may not have the much better long-term value than Braun when looking at all sorts of different factors. Dozier only has two years of control remaining. Dozier has only posted an OPS over .762 one time. Dozier's lifetime MLB OBP is only a pretty unspectacular .320. Dozier's WAR values have been erratic over the last three seasons (5.2, 2.4, 6.5).

 

That being said, I think Dozier should be their top priority. They have a glaring need at second base and Dozier smashed left-handed pitching last year (.282/.352/.613/.965 and has a .834 OPS against lefties from 2014-2016). Played in at least 155 games in each of the last three years. Defensive metrics probably put him as a slightly above average second baseman (negative UZR/150 in 2016, but had a plus UZR/150 in 2015 and was on the plus side in DRS in both 2015 and 2016). And just to go kind of old school...42 home runs in 2016 from a second baseman.

 

The Twins had said early in the off-season that Dozier was off-limits and then backed off a bit. I think they'll deal him but it certainly won't be a bargain deal. If I'm the Dodger's GM I obviously start negotiations low but in the end I'd probably expect to do something like:

 

Dodgers get:

2B-Brian Dozier

 

Twins get:

RHP-Jose De Leon

RHP-Walker Buehler

C-Will Smith

OF-Johan Mieses

[FVBrewerFan]

First, I don't think Stearns will base his decision on fan reaction. Not even 1%. He will do what's best for the team- period.

 

If Braun stays the next four years, it certainly changes things. My vision for the OF is to have 4 really athletic guys, great defensive players, speed, solid hitters. And based on draft picks, players signed etc., I think the Brewers see it the same way.

 

So if Braun stays, you have two guys in the corner OF spots that don't fit that plan at all. Maybe Braun or Santana can be moved to 1B, but there may be reasons that's never going to happen. We just don't know. That means they could probably try to trade Santana at this time next year, but I have a feeling it will be tough to get proper value for him. We'll see what kind of season he has.

 

All of this I can live with for 2017, maybe even 2018 if Braun continues to hit .900ish. Not a bad problem to have. It's the last two years that could really be a problem. I just hope Braun is willing to expand the list of teams he's willing to play for, seems that's the best path out of all this.

[MrTPlush]

First, I don't think Stearns will base his decision on fan reaction. Not even 1%. He will do what's best for the team- period.

 

Yah when I think of it that way I just can't see Ryan Braun not being traded no matter what. Stearns loves versatile players and Ryan Braun is the least versatile player on this team right now. Not to mention if we are doing what is best for the team trading Ryan Braun is almost a no brainer. Expensive, old, injury prone, etc....sure he could still bring value to the team if he continues to put up all star numbers while staying healthy, but is that really worth gambling nearly $100mil on?

[NievesNoNO]

IMO, there's a 99.9% chance Braun is traded. There's no way I can see them letting the 10/5 status vest. For a rebuilding team to lose all leverage to a player who's trade value is at the highest it could be in a Brewers uniform doesn't make sense. And for all the "tank" theorists out there, he's adding wins . Whatever the best deal is they should take it. Obviously there's still some time for that to materialize. While I'd love it to be the Dodgers, I think the Giants present a much cleaner situation with all the variables involved.

 

You don't want to be in a Brandon Phillips situation where you still have a decent player who's making a good chunk of money (potentially more than what he's worth) but really can't cut him and can't trade him.