What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[JosephC]

The one time Braun had to play through injury for an extended amount of time was the last half of 2014 with the thumb problem. His slash line post All-Star break that season was .226/.295/.374/.669 over 235 at-bats. It doesn't matter how great a player is, an injury that will affect that player's ability to hit will affect their productivity. The back problems really concern me, I really believe that has the potential to start limiting his performance during the next couple of seasons and is my primary motivation for wanted to see him get dealt. Sell high while the Brewers are able.

[tmwiese55]

To hit on some recent post.

 

Of course injury/hitting is related. My point is that I think all of us and all teams would agree with the statement "If Braun is healthy he will still be a well above average hitter for the next 3-4 years". But no one can confidently say that he'll be healthy, therefore the concern is health not hitting ability.

 

To those saying how we can get good returns back along with how we should be able to get a good package or 1 elite P prospect. Yea, I agree with how good he is we 'should' be able to. But what is reality? He's about to get full no-trade power. He just cleared waivers with no one claiming him. So again, LAD are the most likely scenario here and they just chose not to claim him in spite of playing Howie Kendrick in LF during a playoff run presumably out of fear that MKE would just let them have him and they'd be on the hook for the contract. Now we're going to call them up two months later and demand an elite pitching prospect? My guess is they offer up a poopoo platter and we say no. Which is as of now what I see from everyone. So might as well just keep. Yea, if you get a good package go for it.

 

Of course McCutcheon was a good player. But not in Braun's HOF class. That's what I'm getting at, Braun's talent is severely underrated due to the hating on him due to PEDs and the several months of bad stats due to the thumb. Basically take those several months out of his career and he's never not straight up killed it.

[LouisEly]

He just cleared waivers with no one claiming him. So again, LAD are the most likely scenario here and they just chose not to claim him in spite of playing Howie Kendrick in LF during a playoff run presumably out of fear that MKE would just let them have him and they'd be on the hook for the contract. Now we're going to call them up two months later and demand an elite pitching prospect?

How do you know that not claiming Braun was due to being on the hook for the contract and not due to luxury tax implications? Is it possible that teams don't want to claim him *now*, but in the offseason once they can clear some salary and get safely under the luxury tax threshold it will be a much different situation? Is it possible that some teams have corner OF covered now but those players are free agents after the season? Is it possible that teams know that he only wants to be in a handful of markets and that acquiring him will likely mean dealing with the headache of demanding a trade later?

 

I thought we established that his no trade clause had some implication on waiver claims, but I can't find those posts. Is it possible that the no-trade clause or his contract does have some stipulations that if he is claimed on waivers by a team not on his list he can declare free agency? That would make claiming him a moot point.

 

That's the only reason I can think of for a team such as Atlanta to not put in a claim for him with the garbage they are trotting out in their OF, and at least a half dozen other teams as well.

[tmwiese55]

Of course we don't know, thus the word presumably. And to me luxury tax/contract is kind of the same thing. But even taking it down the path you're going. Wouldn't they just claim him now for nothing and then sort out dumping of contracts to free money in the offseason? Much better route than clearing contracts plus giving up good prospects like we're talking about. Of course there's risk you can't dump contacts but they're trying to win the world series here assuming Kershaw comes back before the playoffs. That's the route I'd go anyway for a hitter of his quality. They of course don't want value him enough to take that risk, so chances are they're not giving you anything really good back. Again, if they do then go for it. I just don't see it happening.

 

I was under the impression that if he was claimed on waivers it would be the same as a trade so he could block it. I'm no expert though on those specifics.

[MrTPlush]

Regarding No-Trade clause:

 

It is like a trade before the deadline. He can block trades/waiver claims by teams on his no trade list. A team is free to claim him, but unless they convince him to waive the no trade clause he is allowed to block the waiver claim thus forcing the Brewers to pull him back.

 

Regarding Luxury Tax:

 

I don't buy this as a problem at all. You are trying to tell me an approx. $5mil tax is scaring teams away from making a claim? Because the only year where this is a concern is this year's salary since a team can't really clear salary like it can in future seasons. Instead those teams are going to wait till the offseason and pay the money AND prospects? Yup, not buying that at all. Not to mention they would get him for one less playoff run. Any team would pay the luxury tax in a heartbeat.

[adambr2]

 

Of course McCutcheon was a good player. But not in Braun's HOF class. That's what I'm getting at, Braun's talent is severely underrated due to the hating on him due to PEDs and the several months of bad stats due to the thumb. Basically take those several months out of his career and he's never not straight up killed it.

 

I know some of your points go beyond this, but I really don't agree.

 

McCutcheon has a higher career WAR than Braun, despite being 3 years younger and having 2 less seasons played. He plays a more premium position. He has never had less than a .364 OBP in a season, with the last 4 years at .400 or higher. He was voted among the top 3 in the MVP race 3 years in a row. Up until this season, he's been the definition of consistency.

 

If you want to argue that Braun is a superior hitter; sure, I guess I can kind of agree, though I'd still say the career comparisons are pretty insignificant.

 

But to say McCutcheon isn't in Braun's HOF class? I can't agree with that at all.

[Boomer5]

As of today:

OPS: 14th

Fangraphs Offense Ranking: 22nd

Fangraphs WAR: 52nd

 

Interesting to note that Trout has a negative Fangraph's defensive ranking.

 

Thats the issue. He is a very good but not great player and he has 4 years left on his contract. The team picking him up isnt thinking 4 years/$76M, they are thinking 2/$76M because the last two years arent likely to be special.

 

The question is how bad does a team like the Dodgers need him for 2016?

[tmwiese55]

 

Of course McCutcheon was a good player. But not in Braun's HOF class. That's what I'm getting at, Braun's talent is severely underrated due to the hating on him due to PEDs and the several months of bad stats due to the thumb. Basically take those several months out of his career and he's never not straight up killed it.

 

I know some of your points go beyond this, but I really don't agree.

 

McCutcheon has a higher career WAR than Braun, despite being 3 years younger and having 2 less seasons played. He plays a more premium position. He has never had less than a .364 OBP in a season, with the last 4 years at .400 or higher. He was voted among the top 3 in the MVP race 3 years in a row. Up until this season, he's been the definition of consistency.

 

If you want to argue that Braun is a superior hitter; sure, I guess I can kind of agree, though I'd still say the career comparisons are pretty insignificant.

 

But to say McCutcheon isn't in Braun's HOF class? I can't agree with that at all.

 

Fair enough. I just don't view a 3 year stretch preceded by some mediocre seasons as in the same class. usually only 25ish HRs and usually in the 80s in RBI. WAR factors in D and we're talking about hitting. I probably weigh a bit too heavily that Braun stepped in and raked immediately whereas McCutcheon had a more typical 'ramp-up' progression. I guess I just view that as a sign of being an elite hitter. Tack on two more years that were ruined by the thumb/suspension onto Braun's prime run and it would be very very impressive. Which brings us back to the main issue here which is that he's always hurt.

[LouisEly]

Regarding No-Trade clause:

 

It is like a trade before the deadline. He can block trades/waiver claims by teams on his no trade list. A team is free to claim him, but unless they convince him to waive the no trade clause he is allowed to block the waiver claim thus forcing the Brewers to pull him back.

 

Regarding Luxury Tax:

 

I don't buy this as a problem at all. You are trying to tell me an approx. $5mil tax is scaring teams away from making a claim? Because the only year where this is a concern is this year's salary since a team can't really clear salary like it can in future seasons. Instead those teams are going to wait till the offseason and pay the money AND prospects? Yup, not buying that at all. Not to mention they would get him for one less playoff run. Any team would pay the luxury tax in a heartbeat.

Thanks for the waiver claim clarification - that is likely the biggest issue for teams not claiming him. It would be a moot point.

 

The luxury tax issue isn't just for this season. The Dodgers are already committed to $179M for next season; they will have to move salary next year too, which likely means poor trades and/or bribing teams to take contracts by adding prospects. The Giants are committed to $145M next year with several holes to fill and both closers plus other bullpen members as free agents. Bullpen is no longer cheap.

 

The Angels will have payroll next season but they know the Brewers aren't giving away Braun and they know they don't have the prospects to get him.

 

Bottom line is that the Brewers aren't giving away Braun, nor should they.

[billymac]

Puig claimed by unknown team....

[pacopete4]

Puig claimed by unknown team....

 

 

Wouldn't it be something if it were the crew? Lol

[billymac]

Which team says no to:

 

Puig

De Leon

for

Braun and cash

 

Brewers try to flip Puig this winter.

[MrTPlush]

Puig claimed by unknown team....

 

 

Wouldn't it be something if it were the crew? Lol

 

Makes little sense for the Crew to claim him.

[MrTPlush]

Which team says no to:

 

Puig

De Leon

for

Braun and cash

 

Brewers try to flip Puig this winter.

 

Assuming "cash" is something like $20mil I think the Dodgers are on board. I could see the Brewers saying no because they don't really want to trade Braun deep down, but that trade makes a ton of sense for both sides. I would hold onto Puig through the winter though and start him next year. Why trade him when his stock is so low? Could hit the mother load if he turns it around next year.

[pacopete4]

Puig claimed by unknown team....

 

 

Wouldn't it be something if it were the crew? Lol

 

Makes little sense for the Crew to claim him.

 

Santana to 1B, Braun/Brinson/Puig on the OF in 2017!

[JosephC]

For those that don't want Puig remember that he has the option of voiding the last two years of his deal and would then go to arbitration. There is always a chance he'd get to Milwaukee, hate the market and void his deal...then the Brewers could decline to offer him arbitration and he'd become a free agent. I would think it's very, very unlikely he would opt out of his contract after the trip to the minors but stranger things have happened. If a Braun/Puig swap is in the works, I'd be happy with it if Verdugo and a couple lower minor guys with good upside were also included. It would be pretty cool if the Brewers were able to get some quality prospects back for Braun AND not have to eat very much money in the swap...and this is a scenario where that could happen.

[adambr2]

For those that don't want Puig remember that he has the option of voiding the last two years of his deal and would then go to arbitration. There is always a chance he'd get to Milwaukee, hate the market and void his deal...then the Brewers could decline to offer him arbitration and he'd become a free agent. I would think it's very, very unlikely he would opt out of his contract after the trip to the minors but stranger things have happened. If a Braun/Puig swap is in the works, I'd be happy with it if Verdugo and a couple lower minor guys with good upside were also included. It would be pretty cool if the Brewers were able to get some quality prospects back for Braun AND not have to eat very much money in the swap...and this is a scenario where that could happen.

 

Puig's decision on whether or not to opt out will be entirely value based. If Puig were to outplay his contract, he'd opt out, and the Brewers would likely offer arbitration to keep him, not let him walk for nothing.

 

If he bombed out and knew he'd have a sour market, he wouldn't opt out. It's tough to imagine a scenario that he both opts out AND the Brewers decline to offer arbitration. (speaking all in hypotheticals, of course)

[brewcrewdue80]

Since 2015 began, Braun's lowest OPS calendar month was .716. Hes had as many 1.0+months as hes had .716-799 months. This battling these injuries and aging concerns. That FA pricing post above how many below .800OPS got paid?

Braun's lowest calendar Avg. this year is .287

 

Putting characters like Gomez or Fielder aging declines sudden is poorly comparable. Take a 2year wonder who corkscrews himself in to the ground, or a Hefty long believed wasnt going to Age well 1b/DH? Braun is approaching 10years of performance better than both consistently. I hate to break it those awaiting this downturn but ITS NOT HAPPENING IN NEXT 3 OR 4YEARS THROUGH HIS CONTRACT. A GOAT Brewer hitter who's as consistent as he is, wont fall off precipitously. Top 20s Hitter in Baseball post 30, post thumb/back/neck issues. I just am tired of reading this concern 5months after it was a concern. How many months does he have to perform at the plate to understand drastic falloffs arent a month away?

 

You don't like the Gomez and Fielder comparables? Ok, how about David Wright? Josh Hamilton? Adam Dunn?

 

There is absolutely no way you can predict with certainty that a great player with an injury and PED checkered past won't hit a wall in his mid 30s and decline significantly and suddenly. Not even if you type it in all caps.

 

Adam Dunn? come on what's he got? Like 1500 more Ks than Braun?

Josh Hamilton. Not 8 years of consistent batting like Braun. 3year run only.

David Wright is simply injuries that continue season after season post 30. He's never proven over 5months of play to have come back.

As to McCutchen, 1 poor season to a great career. You're looking at being 10% down on his numbers over his career numbers. HRs are on pace for normal. Doubles and walks are a little down. Mind you he isn't even 30 yet. Give an offseason to review tape, or adjust his swing. Maybe he has a personal problem we don't know about. Whatever it is, for a 10% decline in numbers I'd wait for a 2nd season of that performance before officially calling it a rapid decline. We wrote Segura off, and he's batting the best ever in his career with a minor hand adjustment in setup supposedly.

[MrTPlush]

So just because you are consistent makes you age differently? I really don't think that is how it works. To throw a name out there though: Albert Pujols. He took a huge step back his age 33 year. I am sure there are more, but I simply don't have time to search for them. I found quite a few that had a drop of at 35 so that would be somewhat notable since that would effect half the contract years.

 

The thing that scares team's most is probably his chronic injuries along with his age. Older you are the harder it is to heal and rebound from injuries. Also more back or thumb problems could really negatively effect him and spiral his career. You just don't know what is going to happen. I think between his age and the injuries no team wants to gamble $80mil on him.

[adambr2]

Since 2015 began, Braun's lowest OPS calendar month was .716. Hes had as many 1.0+months as hes had .716-799 months. This battling these injuries and aging concerns. That FA pricing post above how many below .800OPS got paid?

Braun's lowest calendar Avg. this year is .287

 

Putting characters like Gomez or Fielder aging declines sudden is poorly comparable. Take a 2year wonder who corkscrews himself in to the ground, or a Hefty long believed wasnt going to Age well 1b/DH? Braun is approaching 10years of performance better than both consistently. I hate to break it those awaiting this downturn but ITS NOT HAPPENING IN NEXT 3 OR 4YEARS THROUGH HIS CONTRACT. A GOAT Brewer hitter who's as consistent as he is, wont fall off precipitously. Top 20s Hitter in Baseball post 30, post thumb/back/neck issues. I just am tired of reading this concern 5months after it was a concern. How many months does he have to perform at the plate to understand drastic falloffs arent a month away?

 

You don't like the Gomez and Fielder comparables? Ok, how about David Wright? Josh Hamilton? Adam Dunn?

 

There is absolutely no way you can predict with certainty that a great player with an injury and PED checkered past won't hit a wall in his mid 30s and decline significantly and suddenly. Not even if you type it in all caps.

 

Adam Dunn? come on what's he got? Like 1500 more Ks than Braun?

Josh Hamilton. Not 8 years of consistent batting like Braun. 3year run only.

David Wright is simply injuries that continue season after season post 30. He's never proven over 5months of play to have come back.

As to McCutchen, 1 poor season to a great career. You're looking at being 10% down on his numbers over his career numbers. HRs are on pace for normal. Doubles and walks are a little down. Mind you he isn't even 30 yet. Give an offseason to review tape, or adjust his swing. Maybe he has a personal problem we don't know about. Whatever it is, for a 10% decline in numbers I'd wait for a 2nd season of that performance before officially calling it a rapid decline. We wrote Segura off, and he's batting the best ever in his career with a minor hand adjustment in setup supposedly.

 

I never said McCutcheon was in rapid decline. TPlush gave a great example with Pujols. He has not OPSed over .800 since his age 32 season. What about Ryan Howard? The list is endless of star players who declined significantly in their 30s. How many examples do you want? You can't just find a reason to discount all of them and try to separate them from Braun and pretend aging won't affect him the same way.

 

As for Jean Segura, we are talking about the effects of aging on star players. A good 26 year old SS having a big rebound year has absolutely nothing to do with that. No one thought Segura was old and washed up in his mid 20s.

[pacopete4]

 

TPlush gave a great example with Pujols. He has not OPSed over .800 since his age 32 season.

 

To be fair, Albert's 32 year old season might've been his 42 year old season. You never know.

[MrTPlush]

 

TPlush gave a great example with Pujols. He has not OPSed over .800 since his age 32 season.

 

To be fair, Albert's 32 year old season might've been his 42 year old season. You never know.

 

Ryan Braun could still be taking some good PEDs and ready to miss an entire year. Your turn.

 

Point is there are many examples of guys who fall off a cliff in their 30s. Even more that decline due to chronic injuries. It's no sure thing for Braun, but enough where teams clearly don't think $80mil is worth the risk at this point.

[tmwiese55]

Exactly, and that's why the Brewers won't get a good return. So might as well just keep him. The money is nothing to us now since they have no other salary.

[pacopete4]

 

TPlush gave a great example with Pujols. He has not OPSed over .800 since his age 32 season.

 

To be fair, Albert's 32 year old season might've been his 42 year old season. You never know.

 

Ryan Braun could still be taking some good PEDs and ready to miss an entire year. Your turn.

 

Point is there are many examples of guys who fall off a cliff in their 30s. Even more that decline due to chronic injuries. It's no sure thing for Braun, but enough where teams clearly don't think $80mil is worth the risk at this point.

 

 

I guess I should've used blue as what I said was no quite as obviously sarcastic as I thought it was. Either way Braun is king of baseball and will always hit! (Does that need to be blue also?)

[NievesNoNO]

Which team says no to:

 

Puig

De Leon

for

Braun and cash

 

Brewers try to flip Puig this winter.

 

Seems to make good sense. I'm surprised De Leon isn't up yet. Seems like a waste at AAA for a competing team.

 

I'd do De Leon straight up if they'd accept.