What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[MrTPlush]

I just wonder how motivated the Brewers are to trade him. Are they looking for a big deal or are they just looking for something acceptable? How badly do they want to move him before his full no trade rights kick in? Are they really ok with keeping Braun even if he is expensive and not providing value to the next competing team? These are questions we can't even guess the answers to.

 

Honestly I am trading Braun for the best offer no matter how meh it is. Why? Because I am pretty confident we have internal options that could easily step in and produce a 2 WAR yearly maybe more. Add in the money saved and we have already replaced what Braun gives us value wise. Get some prospects on top of that and we are coming out ahead.

 

I just don't see him being apart of the next great thing here and I have a hard time seeing why he is worth keeping when it's unlikely he provides a big impact to negate the $80mil we pay him plus the prospects we wouldn't acquire. At some point you look to the future and trade him hoping you get something to help you down the road. Braun will be great now, but soon enough he declines or is gone before we truly make noise.

[NievesNoNO]

...............

 

Honestly I am trading Braun for the best offer no matter how meh it is. Why? Because I am pretty confident we have internal options that could easily step in and produce a 2 WAR yearly maybe more. Add in the money saved and we have already replaced what Braun gives us value wise. Get some prospects on top of that and we are coming out ahead.

 

......................

 

 

I agree. I think it's just a scenario of needing to move forward with the rebuild. The perfect scenario might not arise, but keeping him because you don't feel like the return is fair has a cost as well. Imo, it's important to have that roster spot for the Brewers to help evaluate and develop their next team.

 

Stearns has not held guys, so I don't anticipate it happening now. For better or worse Braun isn't part of the future and he's kind of the last big piece to move.... the last big bridge to the old team

[adambr2]

Dodgers are supposedly in on Dozier. If they get him, considering what they'll have to give up, you have to think anything with them and Braun is dead in the water.

[MrTPlush]

Dodgers are supposedly in on Dozier. If they get him, considering what they'll have to give up, you have to think anything with them and Braun is dead in the water.

 

That would definitely kill any Braun possibility...if it isn't already dead which I wonder if it might be.

[brewcrewdue80]

This is Cots breakdown of Ryan Braun contract

5 years/$105M (2016-20), plus 2021 mutual option

 

5 years/$105M (2016-20), plus 2021 option

signed extension with Milwaukee 4/21/11

$10M signing bonus (paid in 4 equal installments each April 1 from 2012 to 2015)

16:$19M, 17:$19M, 18:$19M, 19:$18M, 20:$16M, 21:$15M mutual option ($4M buyout)

price of option may increase to $20M based on MVP, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove awards (if earned, award escalators are deferred without interest)

$18M in salary ($4M each in 2016-18 and $3M each in 2019-20) deferred without interest, to be paid in equal installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2031

 

 

It is only 1 million less a year, but Braun is owed 4/76 after being paid his signing bonus before this contract began. Then of course theres that 18million deferred. Which is now 14million deferred after last season. So while its 4/76 counted in a teams listed payroll, It only costs 4/62million to an owner these next 4years.

[billymac]

I still think Giants could be a landing spot if Stearns feels desperate to move Braun before his 10/5 rights kick in and the Dodgers are out . Giants are capped right now with a big hole in LF(Williamson/Parker platoon). They have a good core of players signed through 2020 in Cueto, Posey, Samardzija, Crawford, Melancon and Brandon Belt with Bumgarner and Span signed through 2019 so they have a good 3 year window to make a few runs.

 

Matt Cain is owed ~21M the next 2 years, if no money is exchanged

 

Braun for

 

Matt Cain - 6th Starter

Tyler Beede

Chris Shaw - Blocked by Belt

Lower Level Arm

 

SF would gain a little flexibility the next 2 years. I'm sure Stearns would be interested in Christian Arroyo, Giants were talking about moving him to 3B.

[NievesNoNO]

I could see something centered around Arroyo and Beede with SF. I'd have a hard time taking on contracts or paying money for that level of prospect though.

[reillymcshane]

I still think Giants could be a landing spot if Stearns feels desperate to move Braun before his 10/5 rights kick in and the Dodgers are out . Giants are capped right now with a big hole in LF(Williamson/Parker platoon). They have a good core of players signed through 2020 in Cueto, Posey, Samardzija, Crawford, Melancon and Brandon Belt with Bumgarner and Span signed through 2019 so they have a good 3 year window to make a few runs.

 

Matt Cain is owed ~21M the next 2 years, if no money is exchanged

 

Braun for

 

Matt Cain - 6th Starter

Tyler Beede

Chris Shaw - Blocked by Belt

Lower Level Arm

 

SF would gain a little flexibility the next 2 years. I'm sure Stearns would be interested in Christian Arroyo, Giants were talking about moving him to 3B.

 

First, well done on the original trade idea! (at least that I recall in this long thread)

 

Second, I think this is a reasonable trade - we take on salary in exchange for a couple of decent prospects. Beede has never thrilled me, but he's certainly looked solid as a pro. Not a great prospect, but a solid guy.

 

Shaw is an interesting guy. Certainly looks like he has some raw power - which is always nice.

 

Third, I have heard that Arroyo isn't particularly good at SS - read the MLB Pipeline review and they don't like his range or speed. So a move to 3B or corner OF is possible in the future. But for all the love the guy gets from scouts, the production hasn't been there. He doesn't walk much, and his season high HR is only 9. And only 3 last year at AA. Of course, he's only 21 - and he's been young wherever he's played.

[billymac]

Maybe a leak by a reporter that SF is in talks about Braun and maybe nudges Dodgers make a move so they don't have to play against him for the next 4 years, wishful thinking.

[JosephC]

I'm not nearly impressed enough by the Giant's farm system to see any deal where I'd be willing to take on Matt Cain's contract. Cain is still owed 27.5 million (20 million in 2017 and then a 7.5 million buyout in 2018 assuming he doesn't hit 200 innings which is unlikely). Was a really mediocre pitcher in 2013 and 2014 and has been below replacement value in each of the last two seasons...he can be evaluated as nothing other than a negative value pitcher. To balance out taking on all of Cain's contract that Giants would have to include both Arroyo and Beede which would be pretty unlikely.

[jackailius]

I would agree. I think we would need some serious quantity back from SF for a deal if we are taking back Cain. They have such a heavy drop in overall quality that you really have to take a lot of prospects back and hope to hit on a couple to be regular contributors. I would say you would definitely need Arroyo and Breede back and then you get into the quantity. Looking at the last few years drafts results from rounds 1-3 here is what they picked. Just looking for more upside than current ranking since the system overall is sluggish. I think taking a few pitchers and maybe Garcia along with Breede and Arroyo might make me feel better about taking Cain's Albatross back.

 

Last few years picks

Bryan reynolds of 2016

Heath quinn of 2016

Matt krook LHP 2016

Chris Shaw 1b 2015

Andrew Suarez LHP 2015

Jalen Miller 2B 2015

Tyler Breede RHP 2014

Aramis Garcia C 2014

Dylan Davis RF 2014

Logan Webb RHP 2014

Christian Arroyo SS 2013

Ryder Jones 3B 2013

Chase Johnson RHP 2013

[IndyCrew]

I think we have so much depth in the minors, quantity isn't going to benefit us much unless it is high ceiling guys in the lower minors. We lost Diaz this year, and we probably are going to lose a few more good players over the next few years. If we keep collecting 45 grade guys, where are we going to put them? How is the 40 man roster going to be shaped?

[MrTPlush]

I really really really don't get this whole "We have all this depth so it doesn't make sense to trade him for anything but elite talent." Talent is talent. Adding talent to the system should never be something we don't need to do. Sure we have a lot of 50 grade guys, but many(most) will fail. Some of those guy end up be much more than a 50 grade too(Lucroy). The more we have the absolute better. Just because we have depth doesn't make said talent less valuable.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I get collecting as much "50 grade" talent as we can and hope for a few of them to really pan out(i.e. Lucroy), however, I understand IndyCrew's point that the Brewers need to start adding more elite talent to the farm system. It's time for quality over quantity.

 

The Brewers have collected some nice talent that could become solid regulars at the MLB level. However, our system currently lacks elite level talent (along the lines of a young Ryan Braun). Brinson has 30-30 all-star type potential but besides him, I don't see that high of ceiling for most other players in our system. Ray, Clark, Phillips and Diaz could all be solid regulars but I doubt they will be stars. Along those same lines, our best pitching prospects, Hader, Ortiz and Bickford, I feel only have the talent to reach a #2 or #3 starter type ceiling.

 

Part of this issue, is that the Brewers didn't finish low enough in the standings to pick high enough to land a generational type talent in the next draft (they pick #9 overall in June) unless they get extremely lucky.

 

Look at the who Cubs were able to land, talent-wise by picking in the top 5 in recent drafts:

2013 #2 overall- 3B Kris Bryant

2014 #4 overall- OF/C Kyle Schwarber

 

That's the elite type of talent the Brewers DESPERATELY need to add to their system and those type rarely get traded.

 

On the positive side, the Cubs themselves were able to add quality players picking #9 in 2011 and 2015.

2011 #9 overall- 3B Javier Baez

2015 #9 overall- OF/2B Ian Happ

 

The Brewers really need to find a way to add a couple franchise building blocks to their farm system, i.e. a FRANCHISE HITTER or a PITCHER WITH AN ACE CEILING.

 

I'm just not seeing that right now, as players that are already in our system.

 

I don't think Ryan Braun's trade value will net us one either....I'm sorry to say.

 

For the Brewers to truly build a World Series contender, I'm afraid we need to finish 2017 and 2018 as one of the worst 5 teams in baseball AND hit on our draft picks.

[adambr2]

Dodgers apparently don't want to part with DeLeon for Dozier, so you can imagine how willing they will be to do so for Braun.

[reillymcshane]

I get collecting as much "50 grade" talent as we can and hope for a few of them to really pan out(i.e. Lucroy), however, I understand IndyCrew's point that the Brewers need to start adding more elite talent to the farm system. It's time for quality over quantity.

 

The Brewers have collected some nice talent that could become solid regulars at the MLB level. However, our system currently lacks elite level talent (along the lines of a young Ryan Braun). Brinson has 30-30 all-star type potential but besides him, I don't see that high of ceiling for most other players in our system. Ray, Clark, Phillips and Diaz could all be solid regulars but I doubt they will be stars. Along those same lines, our best pitching prospects, Hader, Ortiz and Bickford, I feel only have the talent to reach a #2 or #3 starter type ceiling.

 

Part of this issue, is that the Brewers didn't finish low enough in the standings to pick high enough to land a generational type talent in the next draft (they pick #9 overall in June) unless they get extremely lucky.

 

Look at the who Cubs were able to land, talent-wise by picking in the top 5 in recent drafts:

2013 #2 overall- 3B Kris Bryant

2014 #4 overall- OF/C Kyle Schwarber

 

That's the elite type of talent the Brewers DESPERATELY need to add to their system and those type rarely get traded.

 

On the positive side, the Cubs themselves were able to add quality players picking #9 in 2011 and 2015.

2011 #9 overall- 3B Javier Baez

2015 #9 overall- OF/2B Ian Happ

 

The Brewers really need to find a way to add a couple franchise building blocks to their farm system, i.e. a FRANCHISE HITTER or a PITCHER WITH AN ACE CEILING.

 

I'm just not seeing that right now, as players that are already in our system.

 

I don't think Ryan Braun's trade value will net us one either....I'm sorry to say.

 

For the Brewers to truly build a World Series contender, I'm afraid we need to finish 2017 and 2018 as one of the worst 5 teams in baseball AND hit on our draft picks.

Cubs got some of their best players in trades - particularly by adding guys who were still in the minors or had had limited major league success. Arrieta, Rizzo, Russell, Kendrick. Right there you have around 18.0 rWAR.

 

The Cubs can thank the Astros for Bryant (man, can you imagine Houston's lineup if they had taken Bryant instead of Appel). But that just goes to prove that finishing high in the draft doesn't guarantee you a star. For every Bryant there are three Appels. You just have to draft as best as possible - and hope for a little luck. It's great to have the higher picks, but you can still score huge lower down.

[nate82]

Dodgers apparently don't want to part with DeLeon for Dozier, so you can imagine how willing they will be to do so for Braun.

 

I would rather get more prospects back than look at getting DeLeon and that being about it.

 

Braun and Guerra to the Dodgers

 

Kazmir, Puig, Walker Buehler / Jordan Sheffield, Chase De Jong and Ibandel Isabel.

[NievesNoNO]

The nice thing about the Dodgers system is they could take their top guys off the table and there'd still be plenty to choose from. I'm getting antsy to see any rumor related to Braun.

[pacopete4]

if De Leon is off the table than Bellinger better be in the deal. If not, hang up the phone and move on. Let them continue to waste Kershaws best years.

[nate82]

The nice thing about the Dodgers system is they could take their top guys off the table and there'd still be plenty to choose from. I'm getting antsy to see any rumor related to Braun.

 

I agree there is a lot of talent in the Dodgers minor league system. Lux, De Jong, Sheffield, Verdugo, Yusniel Diaz, Buehler, Starling Heredia, and my personal favorite Ibandel Isabel. Any of those players in a trade for Braun wouldn't be a bad deal for the Brewers. Diaz is probably the only one in the bunch that could be a top 10 prospect as he has all of the tools to be a great CF.

[reillymcshane]

While I'd love Bellinger or DeLeon, I also don't have a problem picking the guys from the lower levels that haven't quite emerged. Yadier Alvarez is one guy I'd love - but I don't think the Dodgers are going to let him go. Walker Buehler is the other guy I'd really like. I think he can be a top of the rotation guy. He's undervalued coming off TJ surgery, but I wouldn't be surprised if he pops up on some top 100 lists after looking good at the end of the year.

[LouisEly]

Dodgers apparently don't want to part with DeLeon for Dozier, so you can imagine how willing they will be to do so for Braun.

Dozier is 30 and has a career OPS of .762. He had a career year last year (.886 OPS), but that was the only time in his career that his OPS has been over .762. Highly likely that last year was an outlier.

 

Braun is 32 and has a career OPS of .910, and .903 last year. Last year was an average year for Braun, and his worst season was better than all but one of Dozier's seasons (last year).

 

Yes, Dozier is making far less money, but he is not in the class of hitter that Braun is. I doubt that being unwilling to give up De Leon for Dozier means anything about whether or not they would give him up for Braun.

[adambr2]

Dodgers apparently don't want to part with DeLeon for Dozier, so you can imagine how willing they will be to do so for Braun.

Dozier is 30 and has a career OPS of .762. He had a career year last year (.886 OPS), but that was the only time in his career that his OPS has been over .762. Highly likely that last year was an outlier.

 

Braun is 32 and has a career OPS of .910, and .903 last year. Last year was an average year for Braun, and his worst season was better than all but one of Dozier's seasons (last year).

 

Yes, Dozier is making far less money, but he is not in the class of hitter that Braun is. I doubt that being unwilling to give up De Leon for Dozier means anything about whether or not they would give him up for Braun.

 

Braun is 33 not 32, and Dozier is 29 not 30, but that's not really the point here. But on a couple occasions you seem to fudge numbers a bit to make your argument stronger, not really sure why. Everyone makes mistakes but that seems kind of deliberate, just pointing it out.

 

Anyway, there is more to value than just determining who is a superior hitter. Dozier plays a much more premium position (and has solid defensive metrics.) Slugging corner outfielders, while valuable, can't be compared to a 40 HR middle infielder. He also doesn't have a stigmatized past or really any history of injuries. He's almost 4 years younger and far cheaper, which you kind of said as an aside but which is actually a very big deal. Dozier is owed 15M over 2 years, Braun 76M over 4 years. That is a massive difference for a team like the Dodgers that have to pay 50 cents on the dollar extra for whatever they pay Braun.

 

Dozier is a far more attractive trade investment to a team like the Dodgers and it isn't really close IMO.

[splitterpfj]

The problem with the Giants is, they have Arroyo, Beede and Shaw at the top of their list - any of whom would be an excellent, "second guy" in a Braun trade, but none of whom are, "the guy" that makes Milwaukee do the deal.

 

It just doesn't look like a match to me at this point.

[reillymcshane]

Dodgers apparently don't want to part with DeLeon for Dozier, so you can imagine how willing they will be to do so for Braun.

Dozier is 30 and has a career OPS of .762. He had a career year last year (.886 OPS), but that was the only time in his career that his OPS has been over .762. Highly likely that last year was an outlier.

 

Braun is 32 and has a career OPS of .910, and .903 last year. Last year was an average year for Braun, and his worst season was better than all but one of Dozier's seasons (last year).

 

Yes, Dozier is making far less money, but he is not in the class of hitter that Braun is. I doubt that being unwilling to give up De Leon for Dozier means anything about whether or not they would give him up for Braun.

Dozier's owed $15M over the next two years. Braun is owed $76M over the next four. Dozier had a 6.5 rWAR last year - and 14.1 WAR over the last three years. Braun had 4.4 WAR last year, and 9.2 WAR over the last three years. Braun has missed 76 games over the last three years. Dozier has missed 18 in three years.

 

I don't think many people would consider Dozier in Braun's class as a hitter - but there's lots more going on than that. Money is a consideration. Defense is a consideration. Health is a consideration. Age is a consideration. Luxury Tax situation is a consideration, etc., etc.. etc.

 

I bet that if you asked the GMs of baseball if they could have for Braun (4 years, $76M, including around $15M deferred) or Dozier (2 years, $15M), not taking account position need, almost all of them - if not all of them - would take Dozier.

 

Of course, that's just my opinion.