What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[LouisEly]

Assuming Braun is a 3.8 WAR player, his salary at $8M/WAR as a free agent would start around $30M/year

 

annnnnnnnnnnd you lost me.

3.8 x $8M = $30.4M

 

Cespedes put up 2.9 and 2.3 bWAR the last two seasons and he got $29M/year.

[adambr2]

Assuming Braun is a 3.8 WAR player, his salary at $8M/WAR as a free agent would start around $30M/year

 

annnnnnnnnnnd you lost me.

3.8 x $8M = $30.4M

 

Cespedes put up 2.9 and 2.3 bWAR the last two seasons and he got $29M/year.

 

Cespedes put up a 6.3 bWAR and 6.7 fWAR in 2015. Braun hasn't posted a fWAR above 3.2 and a bWAR above 3.8 since 2012, and he's also 2 years older. And Cespedes' contract average is 27.5M/year.

[MrTPlush]

Assuming Braun is a 3.8 WAR player, his salary at $8M/WAR as a free agent would start around $30M/year

 

annnnnnnnnnnd you lost me.

3.8 x $8M = $30.4M

 

Cespedes put up 2.9 and 2.3 bWAR the last two seasons and he got $29M/year.

 

Yah I see how you got that number. I will just kindly disagree with it's accuracy. Using WAR valuation for FA contract just seems very inaccurate to me

[shanedog19]

Is anyone else going to be disappointed if Braun doesn't get moved this offseason? I just can't see this team competing for a division/and or playoff spot in the next 2-3 seasons, why hold onto him when we are still rebuilding? I can't imagine his value will get any higher than it is right now. It just feels like the Brewers aren't fully committing to a rebuild until Braun is moved for prospects.

[pacopete4]

Is anyone else going to be disappointed if Braun doesn't get moved this offseason? I just can't see this team competing for a division/and or playoff spot in the next 2-3 seasons, why hold onto him when we are still rebuilding? I can't imagine his value will get any higher than it is right now. It just feels like the Brewers aren't fully committing to a rebuild until Braun is moved for prospects.

 

 

I won't be disappointed. I love watching him play and I am in the corner that he will be productive for a long period of time. I would be way more disappointed with a terrible return for such a good player. Not many teams have the type of bat he provides each game in their 3 hole. I also am in the corner that this rebuild could be shorter than most thought.

[MrTPlush]

Is anyone else going to be disappointed if Braun doesn't get moved this offseason? I just can't see this team competing for a division/and or playoff spot in the next 2-3 seasons, why hold onto him when we are still rebuilding? I can't imagine his value will get any higher than it is right now. It just feels like the Brewers aren't fully committing to a rebuild until Braun is moved for prospects.

 

Yah, sad that we can't save the money and get prospects to help the next competing team. Not sad if we didn't take a really crappy offer or the fact I get to watch him 4 more years.

[NievesNoNO]

Is anyone else going to be disappointed if Braun doesn't get moved this offseason? I just can't see this team competing for a division/and or playoff spot in the next 2-3 seasons, why hold onto him when we are still rebuilding? I can't imagine his value will get any higher than it is right now. It just feels like the Brewers aren't fully committing to a rebuild until Braun is moved for prospects.

 

Yes, I think I will be a bit disappointed if only because I feel like it's expected and there's a little bit of the Christmas morning type excitement to see what you got.

 

His value will not get higher imo. There's also the whole 10/5 rights thing so I do think a deal gets done. I think it'll be an unexpected team somehow. The Dodgers have the prospects but honestly, their need is not an OF. I don't think however the contract would limit them at all. For all the talk about their supposed debt issue, they just went and signed Hill to what I would only describe as a horribly risky deal. If I'm them, 2B Dozier interests me far more than Braun.

[CheezWizHed]

"We don't know" is the answer for every trade value of every player - because every evaluation tool has different values for every player. This would happen with Bryce Harper or Chris Sale or Scooter Gennett.

 

My point was simply to take some data and plug into an evaluation tool. As different tools bring out different answers. Different people like different tools (rWAR, fWAR, WARP) - thus every evaluation of a player is always different.

 

And again, this is plugging in data. It doesn't take into account the intangibles and nuances associated with a person. It doesn't account for the player's injury history, their body type and skill set - all things that may make a team feel a player will age better - or worse - than average. To just plug in numbers and come up with an answer is foolish.

 

So ultimately, every player's trade value is 'we don't know."

 

To add to this, the surplus evaluation is neat, but a flawed perspective. It is assuming that the surplus value over signing the equivalent person in FA. So rather than signing the theoretical Ryan Braun twin in FA, you trade for Braun with a minor leaguer of equivalence to the surplus value between the two.

 

Except that supply and demand often comes into play. There might be a couple players that are equivalent to Braun on the market. But once they are gone, scarcity CAN (not will) drive up the price. Thus the team is left to decide if they want Ryan Braun via trade or settle for lesser options. That is what normally drives bigger trades.

 

I would postulate that this is why mid-season BP trades are so expensive in comparison to offseason. There isn't anyone in FA to sign and you already know if Player X on your team is having a bad year. So you have to reach out to the only market you can: trades. Scarcity drives prices up.

[shanedog19]

Is anyone else going to be disappointed if Braun doesn't get moved this offseason? I just can't see this team competing for a division/and or playoff spot in the next 2-3 seasons, why hold onto him when we are still rebuilding? I can't imagine his value will get any higher than it is right now. It just feels like the Brewers aren't fully committing to a rebuild until Braun is moved for prospects.

 

Yes, I think I will be a bit disappointed if only because I feel like it's expected and there's a little bit of the Christmas morning type excitement to see what you got.

 

His value will not get higher imo. There's also the whole 10/5 rights thing so I do think a deal gets done. I think it'll be an unexpected team somehow. The Dodgers have the prospects but honestly, their need is not an OF. I don't think however the contract would limit them at all. For all the talk about their supposed debt issue, they just went and signed Hill to what I would only describe as a horribly risky deal. If I'm them, 2B Dozier interests me far more than Braun.

 

There has to be a tremendous amount of pressure on the Dodgers to win now. Their last world series ring came in, what, 1988? They need to add hitters to their lineup, they had no offensive punch in the playoffs last year. They also have a stable of nice prospects in their system that we ought to be interested in. I find them to be the best match in baseball for a Braun trade, hope it happens.

[brewcrewdue80]

Getting passed his 10-5 rights once they hit will make Braun hard to move.

But how would teams feel on Braun he posts another 4WAR season very close or exceeds .900 OPS again? 19million less. 1 more 19million year and his contract reduces. 3year risk vs 4. Continued performance that didnt tail off and asserts more chances of lesser decline with age.

 

Braun may want his option guaranteed to accept a trade but again its a year gone by without signs of soon to happen decline. Brewers could still kick money increasing his trade value. So I wouldnt commit his value never being higher.

[MrTPlush]

The loss of value from not getting him for the 2017 season will far outweigh whatever is gained from the contract being shorter(which if he demands the option year it isn't). If we break his value down year by year this upcoming year easily has the best value when you look at it right now. So I would say without a doubt his value is maxed out right now.

[adambr2]

Why are people so convinced that Braun would do so much better in FA than his current deal? If the contract is so attractive, I'll just ask why the Dodgers didn't put in a claim on him. Why? They spend gobs of money already, they had the need, they were in playoff contention. If the contract was a bargain, why didn't they claim him?

 

I know people like to point out what Fowler got at $16.5 per, but Fowler has a considerably higher combined fWAR the last 4 years, and doesn't come with the stigma of a prior scandal attached. He's also 3 years younger. Yeah, Braun has the better career track record if you want to go back to 2012 and before, but at some point, age has to become a strong consideration. How many 33 year old position players land a 20M+ contract in free agency? Names?

 

When a team makes a contract offer, they're betting on what you'll do in the future, they're not rewarding you for your past. Few teams would bet strongly on Braun putting together 4 straight highly productive and healthy seasons for the next 4 years.

 

I would bet on him being about 4/80 at this point in his career and I think he'd have to be pretty happy with that.

 

No one is giving Braun 30M a year. Not a chance.

[FVBrewerFan]

You had me at "Fowler is 3 years younger." It's as simple as that. Not mention chronic back and hand and abdominal issues.

[logan82]

Why are people so convinced that Braun would do so much better in FA than his current deal? If the contract is so attractive, I'll just ask why the Dodgers didn't put in a claim on him. Why? They spend gobs of money already, they had the need, they were in playoff contention. If the contract was a bargain, why didn't they claim him?

 

I know people like to point out what Fowler got at $16.5 per, but Fowler has a considerably higher combined fWAR the last 4 years, and doesn't come with the stigma of a prior scandal attached. He's also 3 years younger. Yeah, Braun has the better career track record if you want to go back to 2012 and before, but at some point, age has to become a strong consideration. How many 33 year old position players land a 20M+ contract in free agency? Names?

 

When a team makes a contract offer, they're betting on what you'll do in the future, they're not rewarding you for your past. Few teams would bet strongly on Braun putting together 4 straight highly productive and healthy seasons for the next 4 years.

 

I would bet on him being about 4/80 at this point in his career and I think he'd have to be pretty happy with that.

 

No one is giving Braun 30M a year. Not a chance.

How do we know they didn't put in a claim on him. I was under the impression they did because we were trying to trade him to them.

[pacopete4]

No one is giving Braun 30M a year. Not a chance.

 

I wouldn't shut the door on it completely. Lots of variables. If Braun were willing to go to any team/market, that would drive up the price for him quite a bit.

[Eye Black]

I took a closer look at teams that could be realistically considered in contention for a playoff spot next season. Of those teams, I found six that appear to have a plausible need to upgrade a corner outfield position:

 

Giants

Mariners

Blue Jays

Orioles

Dodgers (assuming Yaisel Puig is traded)

Nationals (assuming Jayson Werth is traded)

 

Of those teams the Giants, Mariners and Blue Jays seem to have the most glaring need. I didn't realize how left handed the Mariners are currently, 6 of the 9 projected starters. Obviously the Jose Bautista signing will potentially affect this market as well. Curious if there are any other likely contending teams I am missing for which Braun would provide a significant upgrade? I didn't include teams such as the Phillies since I don't view them as likely to break .500.

 

Edit: Missed the Orioles the first time through, now added.

[adambr2]

Why are people so convinced that Braun would do so much better in FA than his current deal? If the contract is so attractive, I'll just ask why the Dodgers didn't put in a claim on him. Why? They spend gobs of money already, they had the need, they were in playoff contention. If the contract was a bargain, why didn't they claim him?

 

I know people like to point out what Fowler got at $16.5 per, but Fowler has a considerably higher combined fWAR the last 4 years, and doesn't come with the stigma of a prior scandal attached. He's also 3 years younger. Yeah, Braun has the better career track record if you want to go back to 2012 and before, but at some point, age has to become a strong consideration. How many 33 year old position players land a 20M+ contract in free agency? Names?

 

When a team makes a contract offer, they're betting on what you'll do in the future, they're not rewarding you for your past. Few teams would bet strongly on Braun putting together 4 straight highly productive and healthy seasons for the next 4 years.

 

I would bet on him being about 4/80 at this point in his career and I think he'd have to be pretty happy with that.

 

No one is giving Braun 30M a year. Not a chance.

How do we know they didn't put in a claim on him. I was under the impression they did because we were trying to trade him to them.

 

It was reported at the time that he went unclaimed.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/rosenthals-latest-dodgers-brewers-braun-puig-d-backs.html

[JohnBriggs12]

Why are people so convinced that Braun would do so much better in FA than his current deal? If the contract is so attractive, I'll just ask why the Dodgers didn't put in a claim on him. Why? They spend gobs of money already, they had the need, they were in playoff contention. If the contract was a bargain, why didn't they claim him?

 

I know people like to point out what Fowler got at $16.5 per, but Fowler has a considerably higher combined fWAR the last 4 years, and doesn't come with the stigma of a prior scandal attached. He's also 3 years younger. Yeah, Braun has the better career track record if you want to go back to 2012 and before, but at some point, age has to become a strong consideration. How many 33 year old position players land a 20M+ contract in free agency? Names?

 

When a team makes a contract offer, they're betting on what you'll do in the future, they're not rewarding you for your past. Few teams would bet strongly on Braun putting together 4 straight highly productive and healthy seasons for the next 4 years.

 

I would bet on him being about 4/80 at this point in his career and I think he'd have to be pretty happy with that.

 

No one is giving Braun 30M a year. Not a chance.

How do we know they didn't put in a claim on him. I was under the impression they did because we were trying to trade him to them.

 

It was reported at the time that he went unclaimed.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/rosenthals-latest-dodgers-brewers-braun-puig-d-backs.html

 

All the deals involving the Dodgers involved the Brewers taking back almost the entire amount of his contract some of it that's nearly dead money (McCarthy). Dodgers have issues with an inflated payroll as it is.

 

If Braun were a FA, he'd easily get 4 years, $80 million.

[splitterpfj]

The Dodgers are already over the luxury tax threshold, meaning every dollar they add in player salary is taxed at 50% - a ten million dollar contract is really a fifteen million dollar contract at this point. That is why the Dodgers didn't just say, "gimme Braun."

 

LA is trying to re-sign Justin Turner, which seems likely, and then they have to keep or replace their all-star closer, before they look at Joe Blanton, or an 8th inning replacement - and then they can look to add the things they needed last August, which certainly includes an impact right-handed bat.

 

The Dodgers could be pushing a 240 million dollar payroll if they keep Turner and Jansen - to add anything new, they've got to dump some bad money somewhere - which is exactly why guys like Brandon McCarthy will come up in any trade conversations they have for MLB veteran players.

 

I still think this is a great match, because the Brewers have exactly the type of hitter they need, and the payroll space to take back some money, while the Dodgers have a deep farm system to deal from.

 

Hang in there, the Dodgers have to handle Turner and the closer spot first, then I think they have to get that righty bat. That doesn't guarantee it'll be Braun, but they have to match up with a team that will not only deal them the player they need, but one who will also take back some significant contracts, to lower their cost of adding the new player. That is going to leave the Dodgers with a very short list of teams to deal with.

[pacopete4]

The Dodgers could always just pass on the contract of Turner. Then trade for Braun and put him at 3B.

[JDBrewCrew]

Unlikely.

 

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 5m5 minutes ago

Sources: #Dodgers close on both Turner AND Jansen.

 

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 6s6 seconds ago

Kenley Jansen's deal with #Dodgers expected to be for 5 years, source says. @MLB

[splitterpfj]

As I said, once Turner and Jansen are done, then the Dodgers can work on what was missing last season.

 

It won't take long to find out if Braun's on the wish list.

[JosephC]

It would be interesting to know how the Dodgers value Scott Kazmir. Actually, it would be more interesting to know how badly the Dodgers want to dump Scott Kazmir. Kazmir has two years left on his contract, but there is 8 million in deferred money for each of the three seasons in the contract. So even though Kazmir is under contract for 2 more years, he will get paid 8 million every year for the next five years which makes it a 2 year, 40 million dollar commitment for the Dodgers (or another team). Considering they just signed Rich Hill and already have commitments to two other lefties in their rotation, one has to figure that Kazmir probably now has negative value to them. Over the last five years his WAR totals (Baseball Reference) have been 0.0 (DNP in 2012), 1.1, 1.7, 3.3, 0.2.

 

What would another team think they could get out of Scott Kazmir over the next two seasons? He's probably out of his peak years (turns 33 in January) and it really looks like 2015 was his last hurrah. He's need to be a 5 WAR player over those two seasons to hit the break even point when factoring in the deferred payments. Along with McCarthy he looks like he is solidly in negative value territory. I would never suggest the Brewers take on all 40 million of Kazmir's contract, but maybe taking on Kazmir and having the Dodgers include 20 million would bump up that prospect return a little more.

[JosephC]

I took a closer look at teams that could be realistically considered in contention for a playoff spot next season. Of those teams, I found six that appear to have a plausible need to upgrade a corner outfield position:

 

Giants

Mariners

Blue Jays

Orioles

Dodgers (assuming Yaisel Puig is traded)

Nationals (assuming Jayson Werth is traded)

 

Of those teams the Giants, Mariners and Blue Jays seem to have the most glaring need. I didn't realize how left handed the Mariners are currently, 6 of the 9 projected starters. Obviously the Jose Bautista signing will potentially affect this market as well. Curious if there are any other likely contending teams I am missing for which Braun would provide a significant upgrade? I didn't include teams such as the Phillies since I don't view them as likely to break .500.

 

Edit: Missed the Orioles the first time through, now added.

 

I think the Blue Jays are probably the best fit at this point, which unfortunately is one of the handful of markets that Braun would flat-out refuse to be traded too.

[adambr2]

It's going to take us eating a very significant portion of Braun's remaining contract for the Dodgers to likely be interested at this point.