What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[HighHeat19]

The odds are that one of Braun's rib, back and hand is going to act up this year. His numbers will go down as well, seeing that he no longer has even Lucroy or Carter around him. He will be older. A straight up trade for Giolito only may look lopsided in favor of the team gaining Braun. But it would still make more sense for the goal which is to win 2019 and beyond.

 

I picture the common Brewer fan as Gollum and Ryan Braun as the Ring.

http://image.slidesharecdn.com/presentation1-090609070702-phpapp02/95/gollum-wins-the-ring-9-728.jpg?cb=1244531264

[brewmann04]

so they should give him away its not like their are 20 teams competing for him now.

[HighHeat19]

so they should give him away its not like their are 20 teams competing for him now.

 

Utilizing Spock like logic you could essentially trade Mr. Braun for a 33rd round draft pick from last year. Pocket the savings. And know that you can nab the free agent of your choice when the Brewers are looking to compete again when the season "actually counts". From a computer's standpoint this theory would make sense in the worst case scenario that was just mentioned. Theoretically, as long as they don't have to eat any of his salary, giving him away would bring the Crew closer to a Championship in the next 8 years as weird as that may sound. Think about it.

[Eye Black]

I'm afraid to click on one of these 'spoiler' reveals and find a dick pic.

 

 

[reillymcshane]

Just for fun - let’s see how much ‘value’ Braun has.

 

Last year, Braun’s WAR varied quite a bit depending on what site you looked at:

 

Fangraphs: 3.2 fWAR

Baseball Reference: 4.4 rWAR

Baseball Propsectus: 3.9 WARP

 

For the sake of our exercise, let’s just put Braun at 3.8 WAR for 2016 - an average of them all.

 

Players in Braun’s age group regress by 0.5 WAR per year. So below are projected WAR, as well as the value of WAR for each year. In 2016 WAR was rated at $8M per WAR. But Fangraphs noted WAR rises in value (as salaries increase) about 5% a year. So I’ve taken Braun’s WAR and multiplied it by the value of WAR, increasing it $400k per year. Thus:

 

2017: 3.3 x $8.4M = $27.72

2018: 2.8 x $8.8M = $24.64

2019: 2.3 x $9.2M = $21.16

2020: 1.8 x $9.6M = $19.2

 

11 WAR = $92.72M (let's round up to $93M)

 

Braun’s contract is for $76M, so:

 

$93M - 76M = $17M of Surplus Value

 

I assume the deferred money would be worth something - maybe a few million, so I’ll guess his ‘value’ is around $20M.

 

If you look at an assessment of minor league prospects, a guy ranked in the 51-100 slot is generally valued around $15-20M (pitchers tend to be a little lower - around $15-17M, while hitters are a little more valuable at around $20-22M).

 

Study of player value here: http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

 

So, just looking at raw numbers, trading Braun for a prospect ranked in the 51-100 would be a fair trade.

 

Again, that’s just looking at it as raw data. You have to look at other factors such as the injury history of both players. And there’s the assignment of WAR. I went with 3.8 as his 2016 number - if a team thinks Braun’s value is greater - or less - that will change his overall value.

 

If you use Fangraphs 3.2 WAR for 2016 as the starting point, Ryan’s value ends up around $70M. Considering he’s owed $76M - that basically means his value is right around zero (especially if you consider the deferred money lowers the contract’s value).

 

If you use the 4.4 WAR of baseball reference, Braun’s value is much higher - around $113M. So when you minus his $76M salary, his Surplus Value is around $40M (adding in a few million for the deferred money). That will get you hitter in the 26-50 range of prospects. Or a pitcher in the #11-25 range (again, hitters tend to be valued higher due to fewer injuries).

 

So, depending on your favorite assessment tool, Braun should net us nothing (Fangraphs), or a prospect in the 51-100 range (Baseball Prospectus - as well as the average of the three WAR sites), or a #26-50 hitter or #11-25 pitcher (Baseball Reference).

 

This is not meant to be any sort of statement on my part about Ryan’s value or what we should get for him - just a way to look at his trade value.

 

I thought it was a fun exercise.

[reillymcshane]

I'm afraid to click on one of these 'spoiler' reveals and find a dick pic.

 

Nice. How about this one:

 

 

 

[adambr2]

Just for fun - let’s see how much ‘value’ Braun has.

 

Last year, Braun’s WAR varied quite a bit depending on what site you looked at:

 

Fangraphs: 3.2 fWAR

Baseball Reference: 4.4 rWAR

Baseball Propsectus: 3.9 WARP

 

For the sake of our exercise, let’s just put Braun at 3.8 WAR for 2016 - an average of them all.

 

Players in Braun’s age group regress by 0.5 WAR per year. So below are projected WAR, as well as the value of WAR for each year. In 2016 WAR was rated at $8M per WAR. But Fangraphs noted WAR rises in value (as salaries increase) about 5% a year. So I’ve taken Braun’s WAR and multiplied it by the value of WAR, increasing it $400k per year. Thus:

 

2017: 3.3 x $8.4M = $27.72

2018: 2.8 x $8.8M = $24.64

2019: 2.3 x $9.2M = $21.16

2020: 1.8 x $9.6M = $19.2

 

11 WAR = $92.72M (let's round up to $93M)

 

Braun’s contract is for $76M, so:

 

$93M - 76M = $17M of Surplus Value

 

I assume the deferred money would be worth something - maybe a few million, so I’ll guess his ‘value’ is around $20M.

 

If you look at an assessment of minor league prospects, a guy ranked in the 51-100 slot is generally valued around $15-20M (pitchers tend to be a little lower - around $15-17M, while hitters are a little more valuable at around $20-22M).

 

Study of player value here: http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

 

So, just looking at raw numbers, trading Braun for a prospect ranked in the 51-100 would be a fair trade.

 

Again, that’s just looking at it as raw data. You have to look at other factors such as the injury history of both players. And there’s the assignment of WAR. I went with 3.8 as his 2016 number - if a team thinks Braun’s value is greater - or less - that will change his overall value.

 

If you use Fangraphs 3.2 WAR for 2016 as the starting point, Ryan’s value ends up around $70M. Considering he’s owed $76M - that basically means his value is right around zero (especially if you consider the deferred money lowers the contract’s value).

 

If you use the 4.4 WAR of baseball reference, Braun’s value is much higher - around $113M. So when you minus his $76M salary, his Surplus Value is around $40M (adding in a few million for the deferred money). That will get you hitter in the 26-50 range of prospects. Or a pitcher in the #11-25 range (again, hitters tend to be valued higher due to fewer injuries).

 

So, depending on your favorite assessment tool, Braun should net us nothing (Fangraphs), or a prospect in the 51-100 range (Baseball Prospectus - as well as the average of the three WAR sites), or a #26-50 hitter or #11-25 pitcher (Baseball Reference).

 

This is not meant to be any sort of statement on my part about Ryan’s value or what we should get for him - just a way to look at his trade value.

 

I thought it was a fun exercise.

 

Good exercise, but I think it's generally assumed that the Brewers will eat some salary to increase the return. I would guess 5M a year, which would double that 20M to 40M, basically just 2 players of the type you mentioned instead of one.

[Oldcity]

 

Contract is a discussion. Age is a discussion. Defense is a discussion. Offense isn't. Not even close.

 

So you admit Eaton's contract, age, and defense are all superior to Braun, and then say you'd rather have Braun.

 

And that's even assuming that Braun's offense won't fall off some in his age 33, 34, 35 seasons, which is probably likely.

[brewcrewdue80]

Its early in to this offseason. There are FAs to sign, namely Andrew McCutchen yet to be traded. Honestly, the fact that Puig hasnt been rumored to another team, knowing the Dodgers have desired moving him. I think the Dodgers and Brewers revisit the trade discussions when more dust clears.

Arizona has yet to make their joke trade, have their pitchers openly available.

And then again, leaving Braun in the lineup that stands to be potent with minor improvements. I like Santana #4, Thames to #5 behind Braun. With Villar/Broxton or Arcia 2. Thames will make or Break the offense from being ML average to +.4 runs over average. And Santana the same. That excess runs scored puts 81+wins possible. And if Pitching were ever to show up look out. (Garza, Nelson, Peralta looking at you)

[Boomer5]

 

Contract is a discussion. Age is a discussion. Defense is a discussion. Offense isn't. Not even close.

 

So you admit Eaton's contract, age, and defense are all superior to Braun, and then say you'd rather have Braun.

 

And that's even assuming that Braun's offense won't fall off some in his age 33, 34, 35 seasons, which is probably likely.

 

The first two are just simple facts. The defense argument suggests Eaton is elite if he is RF, subpar if he is in CF. Braun is a subpar LF.

 

If the goal is to win the analytics/surplus value trophy, Eaton is compelling. If the goal is to win a WS in the next two years, Braun is the better player, hands down. More expensive, yes, but he is still a 900 guy, Eaton has yet to be a 800 guy.

[CheezWizHed]

I'm afraid to click on one of these 'spoiler' reveals and find a dick pic.

 

Nice. How about this one:

 

 

 

My eyes! Oh my eyes! I can't believe you hid the C word in that!

[brewcrewdue80]

 

Contract is a discussion. Age is a discussion. Defense is a discussion. Offense isn't. Not even close.

 

So you admit Eaton's contract, age, and defense are all superior to Braun, and then say you'd rather have Braun.

 

And that's even assuming that Braun's offense won't fall off some in his age 33, 34, 35 seasons, which is probably likely.

 

The thing to me is Defensively. Eaton is being Highly rated for the 440 chances he had last season. Which is less than 3outs in a game. Depending on score and how many chances weren't 100%, Ill say corner OF defense matters by 1out a game, so long as you possess an arm where runners arent taking extra bases on you. Offensively, youre getting 4+PAs to impact the game. So when you're bat is Eaton vs Braun's in numbers, theres a reason many prefer Braun over Eaton and dislike the Nationals offer to get Eaton.

If you were picking players for 1 pickup game who'd be picked? Braun or Eaton? Suggesting those were your two best OFs next in line.

I understand the extra value Eaton earns over a season, but in post season when it can be 1-7games value, Brauns performance swings far higher good/bad than Eatons will.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Just for fun - let’s see how much ‘value’ Braun has...

 

...So, depending on your favorite assessment tool, Braun should net us nothing (Fangraphs), or a prospect in the 51-100 range (Baseball Prospectus - as well as the average of the three WAR sites), or a #26-50 hitter or #11-25 pitcher (Baseball Reference).

 

This is not meant to be any sort of statement on my part about Ryan’s value or what we should get for him - just a way to look at his trade value.

 

I thought it was a fun exercise.

 

Awesome job on this. Great assessment and a real reality check for those wishful thinkers hoping for an "Eaton" type prospect haul.

 

Personally, I lean toward Fangraphs assessment. Braun with his contract, age, etc has little to no trade value in the open market.

 

Then you factor in Braun's no trade list and the reality of it is that there are only the few teams (less then 3 in actuality) that are really in play for Braun this offseason.

 

For those hoping to land a Giolito-type prospect for Braun....sorry but it's not happening.

 

To further use the Eaton deal as a reference point, Brewers could land a Reynaldo Lopez type for Braun IF they take on/eat salary.

 

More likely, the offers straight up for Braun may be in the Dane Dunning prospect range.

 

That's why Stearns likely won't bite and Ryan Braun remains a Brewer.

[splitterpfj]

So, depending on your favorite assessment tool, Braun should net us nothing (Fangraphs), or a prospect in the 51-100 range (Baseball Prospectus - as well as the average of the three WAR sites), or a #26-50 hitter or #11-25 pitcher (Baseball Reference).

 

OK, so, Braun has anywhere from no trade value to being worth a player in the range of Bellinger or De Leon. In other words, "we don't know."

 

If the Dodgers aren't a match, the only possibility I really see is whoever the new team on Braun's list is .... the others just don't have the farm system right now to get Braun.

[MrTPlush]

 

Contract is a discussion. Age is a discussion. Defense is a discussion. Offense isn't. Not even close.

 

So you admit Eaton's contract, age, and defense are all superior to Braun, and then say you'd rather have Braun.

 

And that's even assuming that Braun's offense won't fall off some in his age 33, 34, 35 seasons, which is probably likely.

 

The first two are just simple facts. The defense argument suggests Eaton is elite if he is RF, subpar if he is in CF. Braun is a subpar LF.

 

If the goal is to win a WS in the next two years, Braun is the better player, hands down.

 

With Adam Eaton you shouldn't have to worry about chronic injuries and/or decline. One can't say the same about Braun. Also if one takes Eaton they free up $10mil+ in payroll space for other moves. You also have the problem that if they were to have gotten Braun instead, Braun would have to play RF(yikes). At which point he is taking away from the value he gives with his offense and we are back to square one with Braun=Eaton value wise on the field. SO with this we would go back to the fact Eaton is less likely to decline, be injured, and $10mil cheaper....one will come to the conclusion Eaton>Braun.

[MrTPlush]

So, depending on your favorite assessment tool, Braun should net us nothing (Fangraphs), or a prospect in the 51-100 range (Baseball Prospectus - as well as the average of the three WAR sites), or a #26-50 hitter or #11-25 pitcher (Baseball Reference).

 

OK, so, Braun has anywhere from no trade value to being worth a player in the range of Bellinger or De Leon. In other words, "we don't know."

 

No, I think we do know. The most accurate is likely Fangraphs which puts his surplus value at $20mil and with eating some salary $40mil would be the utter top of his potential value by looking at the almost Dodgers trade in August. That trade included us eating a bunch of money, getting Puig(say a lesser Top 100 prospect value wise), and then a major prospect we don't know about. Probably not De Leon, but maybe Verdugo/Calhoun. Add together Puig and one of those two, plus some slight value McCarthy had, and that is probably about $40mil value.

 

On the low end you could probably say he has $0 surplus value(possibly hinted by the fact not a single team claimed him in August) and through eating salary we could get surplus value of $20mil or so.

 

In my opinion his surplus value is between $0-$20mil and depending on how much salary we eat his total surplus value can be as high as $40mil.

[MrTPlush]

On a different note I actually tend to like WAR valuations on players and prospects in trades. It seems in a lot of cases they match up. Id be curious to see what it would look like in past trades that actually happened. Someone did it for the Eaton trade and the numbers were pretty close when looking at Eaton's value and the prospects value.

[reillymcshane]

So, depending on your favorite assessment tool, Braun should net us nothing (Fangraphs), or a prospect in the 51-100 range (Baseball Prospectus - as well as the average of the three WAR sites), or a #26-50 hitter or #11-25 pitcher (Baseball Reference).

 

OK, so, Braun has anywhere from no trade value to being worth a player in the range of Bellinger or De Leon. In other words, "we don't know."

"We don't know" is the answer for every trade value of every player - because every evaluation tool has different values for every player. This would happen with Bryce Harper or Chris Sale or Scooter Gennett.

 

My point was simply to take some data and plug into an evaluation tool. As different tools bring out different answers. Different people like different tools (rWAR, fWAR, WARP) - thus every evaluation of a player is always different.

 

And again, this is plugging in data. It doesn't take into account the intangibles and nuances associated with a person. It doesn't account for the player's injury history, their body type and skill set - all things that may make a team feel a player will age better - or worse - than average. To just plug in numbers and come up with an answer is foolish.

 

So ultimately, every player's trade value is 'we don't know."

[HighHeat19]

So, depending on your favorite assessment tool, Braun should net us nothing (Fangraphs), or a prospect in the 51-100 range (Baseball Prospectus - as well as the average of the three WAR sites), or a #26-50 hitter or #11-25 pitcher (Baseball Reference).

 

OK, so, Braun has anywhere from no trade value to being worth a player in the range of Bellinger or De Leon. In other words, "we don't know."

"We don't know" is the answer for every trade value of every player - because every evaluation tool has different values for every player. This would happen with Bryce Harper or Chris Sale or Scooter Gennett.

 

My point was simply to take some data and plug into an evaluation tool. As different tools bring out different answers. Different people like different tools (rWAR, fWAR, WARP) - thus every evaluation of a player is always different.

 

And again, this is plugging in data. It doesn't take into account the intangibles and nuances associated with a person. It doesn't account for the player's injury history, their body type and skill set - all things that may make a team feel a player will age better - or worse - than average. To just plug in numbers and come up with an answer is foolish.

 

So ultimately, every player's trade value is 'we don't know."

 

I disagree. I believe their is a sabermetric formula in the world of MLB that we may not no anything about. And it may even be a dynamic formula that differentiates between teams based on what a team values or devalues in it's ideal world of what it takes to win a championship. I have always felt this formula is out out there. Something that takes into consideration of clutch, all stats, height and weight, ballpark dimensions, hair color, etc. Almost an underground secret society of sabermetric junkies that we are totally oblivious to that they even exist.

[pogokat]

So, depending on your favorite assessment tool, Braun should net us nothing (Fangraphs), or a prospect in the 51-100 range (Baseball Prospectus - as well as the average of the three WAR sites), or a #26-50 hitter or #11-25 pitcher (Baseball Reference).

 

OK, so, Braun has anywhere from no trade value to being worth a player in the range of Bellinger or De Leon. In other words, "we don't know."

"We don't know" is the answer for every trade value of every player - because every evaluation tool has different values for every player. This would happen with Bryce Harper or Chris Sale or Scooter Gennett.

 

My point was simply to take some data and plug into an evaluation tool. As different tools bring out different answers. Different people like different tools (rWAR, fWAR, WARP) - thus every evaluation of a player is always different.

 

And again, this is plugging in data. It doesn't take into account the intangibles and nuances associated with a person. It doesn't account for the player's injury history, their body type and skill set - all things that may make a team feel a player will age better - or worse - than average. To just plug in numbers and come up with an answer is foolish.

 

So ultimately, every player's trade value is 'we don't know."

 

I disagree. I believe their is a sabermetric formula in the world of MLB that we may not no anything about. And it may even be a dynamic formula that differentiates between teams based on what a team values or devalues in it's ideal world of what it takes to win a championship. I have always felt this formula is out out there. Something that takes into consideration of clutch, all stats, height and weight, ballpark dimensions, hair color, etc. Almost an underground secret society of sabermetric junkies that we are totally oblivious to that they even exist.

 

#sabrgate

[LouisEly]

Just for fun - let’s see how much ‘value’ Braun has.

It is a fun exercise. I'm going to put a twist on it.

 

Braun has a set salary in place. It is debated - but generally regarded - that it is a bargain. The comparison of expected WAR, and using $8M as a proxy for 1 WAR, has its merits. But what if you compared Braun's contract to what he or a similar player would get in the open market as a free agent?

 

Assuming Braun is a 3.8 WAR player, his salary at $8M/WAR as a free agent would start around $30M/year. His WAR/year is likely to decline, but few contracts decline in salary in the latter years (I believe Braun's does because of the deferred $). The labor agreement also caps how much a contract can decline from year to year, which I believe is 20% per year. So let's say Braun gets $30M/year in the open market (fair value at 3.8 WAR) and two scenarios, one where it declines by 20% per year (max allowed by labor agreement) and one where it is flat for four seasons. I'd argue that you would not get Braun for only four seasons, but we'll say four to compare apples to apples.

 

Scenario 1 his salaries are $30M, $24M, $19.2M, and $19.4M, or $89M. Close to the original estimate.

 

Scenario 2 - more likely - the total salary in the open market would be $120M, making his excess value $44M, in which case it would take more than two Top 100 prospects to get him.

 

Now add in the option year - because he will likely still be in the game and would likely get a 5th year in free agency - and the excess value could be >$50M.

 

Now add in the Brewers taking back salary in McCarthy ($22M)... and you see why some people think the Brewers could get both De Leon and Bellinger from the Dodgers. The excess value of the rumored trade to the Dodgers - as opposed to acquiring a similar free agent - could be in upwards of $70M.

[adambr2]

I just don't see Braun getting 30M a year right now in FA even at a 3.8 WAR. Just too many other variables at play in his past. I think he'd do very well to get 25M a year.

 

If Braun could get 3/30, 4/120, or even 4/100 or 3/75, I don't see why he would have went unclaimed at 4/76.

[reillymcshane]

Just for fun - let’s see how much ‘value’ Braun has.

It is a fun exercise. I'm going to put a twist on it.

 

Braun has a set salary in place. It is debated - but generally regarded - that it is a bargain. The comparison of expected WAR, and using $8M as a proxy for 1 WAR, has its merits. But what if you compared Braun's contract to what he or a similar player would get in the open market as a free agent?

 

Assuming Braun is a 3.8 WAR player, his salary at $8M/WAR as a free agent would start around $30M/year. His WAR/year is likely to decline, but few contracts decline in salary in the latter years (I believe Braun's does because of the deferred $). The labor agreement also caps how much a contract can decline from year to year, which I believe is 20% per year. So let's say Braun gets $30M/year in the open market (fair value at 3.8 WAR) and two scenarios, one where it declines by 20% per year (max allowed by labor agreement) and one where it is flat for four seasons. I'd argue that you would not get Braun for only four seasons, but we'll say four to compare apples to apples.

 

Scenario 1 his salaries are $30M, $24M, $19.2M, and $19.4M, or $89M. Close to the original estimate.

 

Scenario 2 - more likely - the total salary in the open market would be $120M, making his excess value $44M, in which case it would take more than two Top 100 prospects to get him.

 

Now add in the option year - because he will likely still be in the game and would likely get a 5th year in free agency - and the excess value could be >$50M.

 

Now add in the Brewers taking back salary in McCarthy ($22M)... and you see why some people think the Brewers could get both De Leon and Bellinger from the Dodgers. The excess value of the rumored trade to the Dodgers - as opposed to acquiring a similar free agent - could be in upwards of $70M.

 

Stuff like this is fun - isn't it.

 

A few things to consider:

 

1. I placed Braun's value as 3.8 WAR for 2016 - so his 2017 value drops to 3.3 WAR. Just making that note.

2. I don't believe there is any rule saying a player's salary can't change by less than 20% for contracts signed by free agents. For players in arby years - yes, I believe that's true. Ian Desmond's new contract pays out as $8M, $22M, $22M, $15M and $8M.

3 - One thing all the calculations do not take into account the individual aspect each player brings to a situation - as well as the situation a team might be in. The Dodgers know Braun's injury and PED history. They know that Milwaukee has a limited number of teams that they can deal him to. All those things will likely have the Dodgers trying to get Ryan at a lower price. Also, there are things like the team's financial situation. A club like the Dodgers may - or may not - be wanting to cut payroll. It can drive up - or down - a team's interest. And then there's the team's personnel. Who is Braun replacing? If you replace a 1.0 WAR player with a 3.5 WAR player - that's a pretty big deal. But if you replace a 2.5 WAR player with a 3.5 WAR player, the improvement isn't that great. And therefore the value of the 3.5 WAR probably isn't as much as to the team as the first scenario.

 

In the end, everyone wants a bargain. Why pay full price if you can get it lower? The Brewers - not the Dodgers - really have the difficult situation. No on really matches up with Braun like the Dodgers - and they know that. They are going milk it for all that it's worth and extract as much value as they can. It's why I won't be shocked if Braun isn't traded - as each side won't budge from their spot (and I don't blame either side). Braun represents a lot of value on the ball field (even if as an asset he may not be that valuable due to his contract). The Brewers aren't in the business to give away assets with that kind of performance ability. So he just might stay put.

 

We shall see. I find it fascinating.

[adambr2]

Yeah, the 20% cut salary rule doesn't apply to free agents. A lot of players who underperform their contracts would effectively have their careers ended because they'd get no offers if that was the case.

[MrTPlush]

Assuming Braun is a 3.8 WAR player, his salary at $8M/WAR as a free agent would start around $30M/year

 

annnnnnnnnnnd you lost me.