What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[MKE81]

I can't imagine Guerra would have much of any value to the Dodgers. They are incredibly deep with starter candidates and I don't even think they would view Guerra as a late inning candidate for their staff. They would probably view him as a long reliever, which means the Brewers would get more trading him to a different team that would plan on using him in the starting rotation.

I hear ya but if they're going to shed money then it would be wise to move Kazmir, McCarthy, Ryu. According to their depth chart that would leave them with Kershaw, Maeda, Urias, Wood, De Leon. Some great young talent but if they engage in a trade and we take back De Leon then Guerra is in their rotation - we'd also take McCarthy I'm assuming too so then they just need to shed Kazmir and Ryu (who might not pitch to begin with). And Guerra is cheap and doesn't hit arby for 2yrs. Clearly this involves a lot of "If's" but it makes sense if it happens

[LouisEly]

Considering that the Dodgers right now are committed to only $51M in payroll for 2019, I find it hard to believe that they are concerned about the back end of Braun's contract. They have at least $30M coming off the books after 2017 (Crawford, Guerrero, possible Ethier buyout takes it up to $45M), then at least another $55M coming off after 2018 (Gonzalez, Kazmir, McCarthy, Arrubarrena; Ryu and Puig take it up to $70M+). They have at least $100M coming off the books over the next two years.

 

I can see the Dodgers being hesitant about giving up Bellinger because Gonzalez only has two seasons left on his deal. Stick Bellinger in the OF for a year or two, then take over for Gonzo.

 

I still think that, given the number of Dodgers pitchers who were hurt at the end of August when the waiver claim of Puig was made, the sticking point was that the Brewers wanted De Leon but the Dodgers balked because they needed him to cover for injuries.

[adambr2]

I still think that, given the number of Dodgers pitchers who were hurt at the end of August when the waiver claim of Puig was made, the sticking point was that the Brewers wanted De Leon but the Dodgers balked because they needed him to cover for injuries.

 

I really doubt this. If the Dodgers needing DeLeon for September was the only thing that kept him from being a Brewer, I'm sure the Brewers would have gladly sent Garza and a few million dollars to the Dodgers to fill the spot and complete the deal.

 

I don't think there is any way a deal of this magnitude falls apart solely on the basis of the Dodgers needing 4 September starts out of a guy who had never pitched at the MLB level before.

[HighHeat19]

I still think that, given the number of Dodgers pitchers who were hurt at the end of August when the waiver claim of Puig was made, the sticking point was that the Brewers wanted De Leon but the Dodgers balked because they needed him to cover for injuries.

 

I really doubt this. If the Dodgers needing DeLeon for September was the only thing that kept him from being a Brewer, I'm sure the Brewers would have gladly sent Garza and a few million dollars to the Dodgers to fill the spot and complete the deal.

 

I don't think there is any way a deal of this magnitude falls apart solely on the basis of the Dodgers needing 4 September starts out of a guy who had never pitched at the MLB level before.

 

Agreed.

[brewcrewdue80]

I still think that, given the number of Dodgers pitchers who were hurt at the end of August when the waiver claim of Puig was made, the sticking point was that the Brewers wanted De Leon but the Dodgers balked because they needed him to cover for injuries.

 

I definitely chimed this thought when the Sept 1st deadline on playoff roster occurred. DeLeon was never called up until after. The Dodgers could have used him at least 3weeks earlier but stuck it out with Urias and swingman types.

Starting his service time clock before September holding him back as well as the need for him with further SP injuries.

[brewerfan82]

I still think that, given the number of Dodgers pitchers who were hurt at the end of August when the waiver claim of Puig was made, the sticking point was that the Brewers wanted De Leon but the Dodgers balked because they needed him to cover for injuries.

 

I really doubt this. If the Dodgers needing DeLeon for September was the only thing that kept him from being a Brewer, I'm sure the Brewers would have gladly sent Garza and a few million dollars to the Dodgers to fill the spot and complete the deal.

 

I don't think there is any way a deal of this magnitude falls apart solely on the basis of the Dodgers needing 4 September starts out of a guy who had never pitched at the MLB level before.

You could be right, however, at the time they only had a 1.5 game lead in the division and 3.5 games in the wildcard with 29 games to go (incl. 6 against the Giants). They could have viewed those potential 4-5 starts as critical. Your point about including Garza is a good point, however, it also sounded like from some reports that they simply ran out of time to make the deal. If the Brewers insisted on DeLeon, but the Dodgers resisted, resisted, and then requested Garza late in talks, it could have complicated things enough that they couldn't figure out how to round things out in time.

 

Not saying you're wrong, I just think there's no real way for us to pull many conclusions from the limited (and conflicting) reports we've heard about that non-deal and from the inactivity so far this offseason (which I'm guessing many teams were waiting on the CBA and non-tender deadline to evaluate their situations and make any moves).

[Oldcity]

Apologies if this has already been mentioned, but doesn't Braun get to re-select the teams in his NTC each season? Does anyone know when that happens? I'm just wondering if those teams could change.

[And That]

Braun changed one team on his list since season's end but it hasn't been reported what the change was.

[billymac]

Wouldn't Rich Hill to LA be good for the crew? 3/40 means more salary and more pitchers in their mix. If in fact a Braun for Puig/McCarthy/prospects deal will get done.

[MrTPlush]

I wouldn't be too worried about his change in the no trade clause. I'd guess he bumped out a team like the D Backs who sucked last year and seem to be in a bad state.

[HighHeat19]

I wouldn't be too worried about his change in the no trade clause. I'd guess he bumped out a team like the D Backs who sucked last year and seem to be in a bad state.

 

Although, if he did bump out the Dbacks that would be good thing as there is no match between the Crew and Arizona.

 

My speculation is he bumped out San Diego. Who he changed to is a wild guess. Seattle?

[adambr2]

Any chance he bumped out the Dodgers just for his own leverage since he knows that's his most likely destination?

 

I doubt it, but he could leverage that to his own advantage to waive it if he wanted to. Something like demanding that his 2021 club option be converted to a player option.

[MKE81]

Since Rich Hill seems to be back in LA I'm changing my offer to Braun, Thornburg (replaces Jansen) for Bellinger, De Leon, Puig, McCarthy, Brito

[pacopete4]

Since Rich Hill seems to be back in LA I'm changing my offer to Braun, Thornburg (replaces Jansen) for Bellinger, De Leon, Puig, McCarthy, Brito

 

 

I'm not on board with that. Thornburg by the all star break might bring back a kings ransom on his own.

[JosephC]

Don't get the Rich Hill deal at all.

 

Kershaw controlled through 2020 (can opt out after 2018).

Maeda controlled through 2023.

Urias controlled through 2022.

Hill controlled through 2019 (assuming a 3 year deal).

Wood controlled through 2019.

Kazmir controlled through 2018.

McCarthy controlled through 2018.

Ryu controlled through 2018.

 

I see them as being pretty much committed to the top four on that list. Three of the top four are lefties, makes me think that the remaining left handed pitchers - Wood, Kazmir, Ryu - can be had cheap. Already pretty much known that they would like to dump McCarthy. If they want to stick with Wood or Kazmir it could make De Leon available. It also seems to totally lock out some decent back end of the rotation candidates like Stewart or De Jong from ever having a chance to stick in the Dodger's rotation.

 

I'm going to make the prediction that if Braun heads to LA the Brewers will not get any of the Dodger's top prospects in return. Rather the Brewers will end up with a "spare parts" return from LA. Something like Braun for Puig, Alex Wood, McCarthy (LA salary dump) and Brock Stewart. Kind of ugly at first glance after having looked at some of the possible prospect packages but Puig is a former All-Star and Wood doesn't just have #2 starter potential because he's pitched at that level in the past. Success of the trade would likely come down to Wood and McCarthy's health. If both those guys stay on the mound this would likely turn out to be an excellent trade for Milwaukee. If neither of them stay healthy, it would all depend on if Puig can bounce back to 2013/2014 performance levels. Not to totally forget about Stewart, he has a chance to stick in the back of a rotation for years to come.

 

One more note, I'll also guess that the Dodgers trade De Leon to the Twins as part of a package for 2B-Brian Dozier.

[endaround]

Hill is about to be 37. No matter how many years they sign him for, they really only expect 1 year out of him in the rotation.

[Austin Tatious]

Don't get the Rich Hill deal at all.

 

Kershaw controlled through 2020 (can opt out after 2018).

Maeda controlled through 2023.

Urias controlled through 2022.

Hill controlled through 2019 (assuming a 3 year deal).

Wood controlled through 2019.

Kazmir controlled through 2018.

McCarthy controlled through 2018.

Ryu controlled through 2018.

 

I see them as being pretty much committed to the top four on that list. Three of the top four are lefties, makes me think that the remaining left handed pitchers - Wood, Kazmir, Ryu - can be had cheap. Already pretty much known that they would like to dump McCarthy. If they want to stick with Wood or Kazmir it could make De Leon available. It also seems to totally lock out some decent back end of the rotation candidates like Stewart or De Jong from ever having a chance to stick in the Dodger's rotation.

 

I'm going to make the prediction that if Braun heads to LA the Brewers will not get any of the Dodger's top prospects in return. Rather the Brewers will end up with a "spare parts" return from LA. Something like Braun for Puig, Alex Wood, McCarthy (LA salary dump) and Brock Stewart. Kind of ugly at first glance after having looked at some of the possible prospect packages but Puig is a former All-Star and Wood doesn't just have #2 starter potential because he's pitched at that level in the past. Success of the trade would likely come down to Wood and McCarthy's health. If both those guys stay on the mound this would likely turn out to be an excellent trade for Milwaukee. If neither of them stay healthy, it would all depend on if Puig can bounce back to 2013/2014 performance levels. Not to totally forget about Stewart, he has a chance to stick in the back of a rotation for years to come.

 

One more note, I'll also guess that the Dodgers trade De Leon to the Twins as part of a package for 2B-Brian Dozier.

 

If that's all you get for Braun, then I'd keep him. He can be a lifer in Milwaukee and I'm fine with it. He's a freakish savant when it comes to well rounded hitting.

 

Speaking only for myself, DeLeon is not the guy I'm most intrigued by. He's fine. But I'd be more interested in Walker Buehler.

 

This would be a fun thread to come back and look at in 3-4 years to see how everything turns out.

[LouisEly]

I really doubt this. If the Dodgers needing DeLeon for September was the only thing that kept him from being a Brewer, I'm sure the Brewers would have gladly sent Garza and a few million dollars to the Dodgers to fill the spot and complete the deal.

Actually, I really doubt this because that would defeat the purpose of sending McCarthy to the Brewers in the deal. My theory all along was that the Dodgers were including McCarthy (I hypothesized McCarthy being involved in a deal well before it was reported) not to offset 2016 salary but to reduce their 2017 salary obligations to try to get under the luxury tax threshold for 2017. This theory is supported by the trade of Howie Kendrick to the Phillies for spare parts. Adding Garza would be basically adding McCarthy's 2017 salary back to their payroll. Right now the Dodgers are sitting at ~$174M; by subtracting McCarthy and Puig they could add Braun and still have a decent chance at getting under the $189M luxury tax limit. Right now their estimated payroll with arby raises is around $192M, so getting under $189M is very possible. They wouldn't have a chance if they had taken on Garza.

 

DeLeon would obviously be league minimum for 2017, but the Dodgers already have plenty of starting depth (Kershaw, Kazmir, Ryu, Maeda, Urias, Wood, Stripling, Stewart) so they wouldn't need De Leon unless they got hit hard with the injury bug again.

[MrTPlush]

The Dodgers are constantly riddled with injuries to the starting rotation and the back end has been a constant problem for multiple years now. Rich Hill has a great year in 2016 and pitched well for the Dodgers. Not to mention due to age he is not a long term commit and the Dodgers can afford the risk. It make a ton of sense.

[LouisEly]

If true it shoots my luxury tax theory down, but it could also support the theory that they plan on trading some of their other starting pitching. They are already committed to Kershaw/Kazmir/Ryu/Maeda; assuming those four are healthy, adding Hill means no room for Urias or De Leon, much less McCarthy, Wood, or Stripling.

[adambr2]

With the Dodgers likely to lose Kelley Jansen, I can't help but wonder if they would be interested in a Braun/Thornburg blockbuster now rather than just Braun.

 

Thornburg is a great fit for LA if they lose Jansen as he can slide right into the pen and replace Jansen, and his salary isn't an issue. If the Nationals manage to land both Sale and McCutchen as speculated, the Dodgers may start feeling some serious pressure to make a move to stay relevant in the NL. This would be that move.

 

Obviously at this point, to deal both, we need a significant return that likely needs to include all of Puig, Bellinger, and DeLeon.

[mlloyd10]

If Braun goes to LA - I would want Wood back as a 3rd piece. He is still young and always had the talent...A Willie Calhoun and Wood for Thornburg trade works also

[billymac]

If LA nixes any deal for Braun, is there any package that would be worthwhile from the Giants? They seem like the two best landing spots due to his no trade clause and need in LF.

 

Christian Arroyo #79 overall(Pipeline 55 grade)(AA)(21 Years old)

Tyler Beede #98 overall(Pipeline 55 grade)(AA)(23 years old), 3 plus pitches, lacks control at times

Chris Shaw #6 on Top 10 Pipeline 1B prospects(AA)(23 Years old)(Pipeline 50 grade)

 

Would it take two or all three plus another lower level arm or two?

[A Swing and A Drive]

Teams not on Braun's no trade list:

 

Dodgers

Giants

Padres

Diamondbacks

Marlins

Angels

 

The Marlins and Angels have terrible farm systems. Dbacks have too many OF of their own. Padres are rebuilding.

 

That leaves the Dodgers and Giants as possible trade partners

 

NO WAY the Giants give up their Top 3 prospects for Braun.

 

Our best chance at moving Braun is still the Dodgers and they have all the leverage now. They will not be giving up Bellinger or De Leon in a deal for him at this point.

 

I think it's VERY likely that Braun will remain a Brewer going forward.

 

If Sterns is motivated to move him now, I think he'll have to eat some of Braun's salary/take on unwanted contracts to even get 2nd-tier prospects back in return for him.

 

Here is a couple of realistic trade offers that Sterns may receive:

 

Offer #1

BREWERS GET:

OF Yasiel Puig (17:$6.5M, 18:$7.5M)

RHP Brandon McCarthy (17:$10M, 18:$10M)

LHP Alex Wood (Arb Eligible)

RHP Brock Stewart (Prospect)

 

DODGERS GET:

OF Ryan Braun (17:$19M, 18:$19M, 19:$18M, 20:$16M, 21:$15M mutual option ($4M buyout))

 

 

Offer #2

BREWERS GET:

RHP Matt Cain (17:$20M, 18:$21M club option ($7.5M buyout)) or we kick in a similar amount of $$$ toward Braun's contract.

RHP Tyler Beede (Prospect)

OF Austin Slater (Prospect)

 

GIANTS GET:

OF Ryan Braun (17:$19M, 18:$19M, 19:$18M, 20:$16M, 21:$15M mutual option ($4M buyout))

 

If either team is interested in Thornburg, sure, that would increase the prospect return quite a bit, but there are nice bullpen arms with more experience then Tyler on the open market this offseason that wouldn't require giving up top farmhands, so that scenario is unlikely IMHO.

[Lee16]

The last few days I have heard rumors about dozens of players being traded at the Winter Meetings, but no word at all about any Brewers, especially Braun. Not a good sign in my opinion, I hope he gets dealt. I don't have anything against him, he is a great player, but it would be in the best interest of the team for the future to get a couple blue chip prospects, if possible.