What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[monty57]

I hate the attitude, but Puig wouldn't be the worst guy to get back. He has tons of ability, and could fill LF until trade deadline, when we'd trade him and bring Brinson up. If the change of environment and full-time play were enough to get him to play like he did in his first couple of seasons, he could even bring us back a good haul when we trade him.

 

Mainly, if his salary offset were enough to net us a top prospect, that would be the reason the deal could happen.

[Boomer5]

From Jim Bowden today so take it with a grain of salt, but I would love to get Bellinger.

 

They had discussions with the Dodgers back in July about a Braun deal that would land both Yasiel Puig and Cody Bellinger, but the Dodgers balked at giving up Bellinger and had concerns about the back end of Braun’s contract. However, with so many teams looking for an impact bat, it is likely that this is the offseason that Braun actually gets dealt.

 

This makes a ton more sense than the straight up Braun for Puig trade we heard about.

 

I have no idea why the Brewers would want Puig at all, but as a piece of the puzzle, not the whole picture, its gets a lot more interesting. Flip him? Meh, thats risky and I would rather just put Brinson out there and let him develop.

 

Still, if Im the Brewers, I leverage the Dodgers situation and take back some bad contracts in exchange for some serious prospects in the package.

 

Braun and Guerra for McCarthy, Puig (if we have to), Kazmir/Maeda/A Gone ++++++++++ depending on how much we take back in contracts.

 

I would not throw in Thornburg. 2016 taught us that a guy like him is worth a kings ransom on his own on the trade market. He is NOT just a trade sweetener, he is headliner on his own.

[MrTPlush]

From Jim Bowden today so take it with a grain of salt, but I would love to get Bellinger.

 

They had discussions with the Dodgers back in July about a Braun deal that would land both Yasiel Puig and Cody Bellinger, but the Dodgers balked at giving up Bellinger and had concerns about the back end of Braun’s contract. However, with so many teams looking for an impact bat, it is likely that this is the offseason that Braun actually gets dealt.

 

This makes a ton more sense than the straight up Braun for Puig trade we heard about.

 

I have no idea why the Brewers would want Puig at all

 

It was never that. It was always Braun for Puig/McCarthy/Prospects(s).

 

Because he is a good buy low candidate with a high ceiling. We just handed out $16mil to Eric Thames. I am not complaining if Puig were to come back. He can be a good player...really good. Puig is not the end of the world and there was and likely won't be the option of Puig or prospects. You can't just assume Stearns is preferring Puig over getting more prospects. Or maybe the prospect option instead of Puig is little to nothing.

[adambr2]

Puig is still 25 and according to Fangraphs has been worth $92.2M dollars to his team already in his short career.

 

I know this horse has been beaten to death but I have no idea why people don't see the potential advantage of such a low buy. There is no one in our system, either at the MLB or MILB level, with Puig's upside.

 

Of course there are risks. If he hadn't slumped he would not be available. Not for Braun or anyone else we have.

[MrTPlush]

Puig is still 25 and according to Fangraphs has been worth $92.2M dollars to his team already in his short career.

 

I know this horse has been beaten to death but I have no idea why people don't see the potential advantage of such a low buy.

 

[sarcasm]Around here we like to get pumped signing someone to a 3/$16mil deal who has done nothing at the MLB level and mashes 85mph fastballs in the KBO. Players who are only 25 and have multiple 5 WAR season under their belt are too mainstream.[/sarcasm]

 

Most people will disregard a player at even the slightest notion they are a problem in the clubhouse because it is a wide assumption it will do horrible things to your team. Dodgers do pretty good every year with Puig on the team and didn't Greinke hate him? Greinke seemed to play well dispite the clubhouse cancer annoying him. Maybe it is just me, but I think his problems are really overblown and their effects on the team even more so.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Remember Mr. TPlush, according to you the Brewers don't have a spot for Puig. lol Too bad Milwaukee missed the deal at the deadline. Could have dumped Braun's contract and received Puig, McCarthy and prospects (possibly Bellringer). Hopefully Santana stays healthy so we don't have to see Perez in the OF on the same day we see Broxton in 2017.

[Eye Black]

From Jim Bowden today so take it with a grain of salt, but I would love to get Bellinger.

 

They had discussions with the Dodgers back in July about a Braun deal that would land both Yasiel Puig and Cody Bellinger, but the Dodgers balked at giving up Bellinger and had concerns about the back end of Braun’s contract. However, with so many teams looking for an impact bat, it is likely that this is the offseason that Braun actually gets dealt.

If the Dodgers had reservations about giving up Bellinger in July, he hasn't made it any easier since. He had a great Arizona Fall League showing, here is a nice summary from Baseball America:

 

Cody Bellinger, 1b/of, Glendale (Dodgers)

 

Bellinger’s prospect stock continues to rise as his lean body gains strength, helping his swing work better. He was Glendale’s most productive hitter this fall, producing a .314/.424/.557 slash line, with three home runs in 70 at-bats with 14 walks. With above-average bat speed and plenty of leverage in his swing, Bellinger, 21, projects to eventually have plus power. The consensus among AFL scouts is that his first base defense grades as plus, or even plus-plus, with one observer calling it Gold Glove caliber. His athleticism also plays in center field, where he is an average defender with an average arm.

[MrTPlush]

Remember Mr. TPlush, according to you the Brewers don't have a spot for Puig. lol Too bad Milwaukee missed the deal at the deadline. Could have dumped Braun's contract and received Puig, McCarthy and prospects (possibly Bellringer). Hopefully Santana stays healthy so we don't have to see Perez in the OF on the same day we see Broxton in 2017.

 

Honestly I don't think I have ever said that. Unless of course is was prior to the idea of trading Braun at the same time. That or I might have questioned his fit with Brinson on the way, but I don't think so.

 

Assuming Keon plays CF, Santana in RF/LF, and Puig in RF/LF there is room. Brinson is on the way, but you have a year before that is a pressing issue.

[Noche]

The consensus among AFL scouts is that his first base defense grades as plus, or even plus-plus, with one observer calling it Gold Glove caliber. His athleticism also plays in center field, where he is an average defender with an average arm

 

This is one of the most nuts blurbs I have ever seen in a prospect write up. Power hitting, walk taking, gold gloving 1B who can be an average CF? I'm gonna go take a cold shower.

[MillerParkSouth]

That's the paragraph that got me too. I want!

[MKE81]

IF Bellinger was even on the table at one point, which I still don't think he was in that specific trade since only Braun was coming to them, I'd overpay just to land him. Take on junk contracts (the likes of Ryu, Ethier, Kazmir) and/or cover part of Braun's final 2yrs. However you can get this done while keeping it a respectably fair deal. He's a legitimate 3-4 hitter, covers 1b spot in org and a lefty to boot. He can spend this entire season in AAA before coming up in 2018 too. I'm actually shocked if they even parted ways with Bellinger unless it was such a lopsided offering. He's too good of a prospect and Gonzalez is gone in 2yrs to their replacement is sitting right there, a replacement who will be an upgrade.

[pacopete4]

Doesn't sound like we'll be getting Bellinger anytime soon then. If that's what is being said about him and he's producing on the field, the Dodgers will probably hold onto that chip.

[reillymcshane]

From Jim Bowden today so take it with a grain of salt, but I would love to get Bellinger.

 

They had discussions with the Dodgers back in July about a Braun deal that would land both Yasiel Puig and Cody Bellinger, but the Dodgers balked at giving up Bellinger and had concerns about the back end of Braun’s contract. However, with so many teams looking for an impact bat, it is likely that this is the offseason that Braun actually gets dealt.

If the Dodgers had reservations about giving up Bellinger in July, he hasn't made it any easier since. He had a great Arizona Fall League showing, here is a nice summary from Baseball America:

 

Cody Bellinger, 1b/of, Glendale (Dodgers)

 

Bellinger’s prospect stock continues to rise as his lean body gains strength, helping his swing work better. He was Glendale’s most productive hitter this fall, producing a .314/.424/.557 slash line, with three home runs in 70 at-bats with 14 walks. With above-average bat speed and plenty of leverage in his swing, Bellinger, 21, projects to eventually have plus power. The consensus among AFL scouts is that his first base defense grades as plus, or even plus-plus, with one observer calling it Gold Glove caliber. His athleticism also plays in center field, where he is an average defender with an average arm.

I read some stuff about Bellinger and it's been really positive. Intelligent guy with baseball smarts (his dad was a major leaguer). Scouts really like how he's made adjustments as a ball player. Probably be a Top 50 guy on prospect lists this year - maybe even top 25.

 

He's only 21 years old, so the best is yet to come for the kid.

 

I'd be thrilled with Bellinger in a deal, but I don't think it's in the cards. I think the Dodgers like him too much, and I don't know if Braunie has that kind of trade value - I guess it all depends on how much money we take back on his contract.

[JosephC]

The report last July was the Brewer and Dodgers had agreed on a Braun for Puig/McCarthy and two prospects deal. They had agreed on one of the prospects but couldn't agree on the second one. While many in the media speculated that deal was really close, that's not something we could know for sure because we didn't know the details about the disagreement over the second prospect. I always suspected there was a huge difference between the value of the player the Brewer's asked for and the value of the player that the Dodger's offered. Five player deals that include a bat like Braun's do not get hung up with two teams arguing about if another "top 10 organizational prospect" or a "role player prospect" should be included in the deal.

 

I'll take a guess that the first prospect was one of their advanced pitchers like Brock Stewart or Chase De Jong. A player like that makes sense for both sides. Once their guys get healthy the Dodgers have plenty of starting pitching depth and a few high minors players that could contribute to the back of the rotation. The Brewers might not need a starting pitcher right now to fill out the rotation but two years down the road a pitcher like Stewart or De Jong could fit real nicely in the middle of the rotation provided they hit or at least approach their ceiling.

 

So now it appears that Bellinger was the other prospect the Brewers wanted. It will be interesting to know what the Dodgers countered with? If I was sitting in Stearns shoes I'd be willing to compromise and take Alex Verdugo instead of Bellinger, but I wouldn't go any lower than that when taking on both the Puig contract and the McCarthy contract. If multiple prospects are added when Bellinger is subtracted out...a Buehler/Lux combo would be pretty attractive.

 

I also think it's pretty interesting posturing by the Dodgers acting like the back end of Braun's contract would be a major concern. The no-trade situation does not play into this scenario. The financial obligation to Braun would be 4 years, 80 million dollars. McCarthy is truly dead money for them, including him in the deal brings it down to 4 years, 60 million dollars. It wouldn't be appropriate to call Puig's contract dead money but it would be another 14 million that would be off the Dodger's book when calculating luxury tax thresholds. But let's just say the Braun deal is essentially a 4 year, 60 million dollar contract when subtracting the McCarthy contract. If Braun repeats his 2016 performance in 2017 and then has a 30% decrease in value each season after that his WAR over the four years would be something like 3.2, 2.4, 1.6, 1 which when calculated into dollar value (7.9 million per win) would come out to 64.78 million which is over the 60 million dollar mark. Even if Braun experiences a total crash and is a 0 WAR player in that last season the WAR totals come out to 3.2, 1.6, 0.8, 0 which calculates out to 44.24 million which is almost the mark of Braun's deal minus the McCarthy money minus the Puig money. About the only way a Braun deal that includes McCarthy would be a disaster financially for the Dodgers is if Braun goes to LA and immediately suffers a completely disabling back injury. A very much doubt that Dodger posturing about Braun's contract will sway Stearns' assessment of Braun's value.

[MillerParkSouth]

I'm hoping the fact that the Pirates are actually shopping McCutcheon doesn't end up hurting Braun's trade value. He's younger, cheaper in dollars and years and teams may gamble that last year was a fluke rather than paying up for Braun.

[mlloyd10]

I'm hoping the fact that the Pirates are actually shopping McCutcheon doesn't end up hurting Braun's trade value. He's younger, cheaper in dollars and years and teams may gamble that last year was a fluke rather than paying up for Braun.

 

Pirates want the nations top prospect #10 overall plus more -

[MKE81]

The report last July was the Brewer and Dodgers had agreed on a Braun for Puig/McCarthy and two prospects deal. They had agreed on one of the prospects but couldn't agree on the second one. While many in the media speculated that deal was really close, that's not something we could know for sure because we didn't know the details about the disagreement over the second prospect. I always suspected there was a huge difference between the value of the player the Brewer's asked for and the value of the player that the Dodger's offered. Five player deals that include a bat like Braun's do not get hung up with two teams arguing about if another "top 10 organizational prospect" or a "role player prospect" should be included in the deal.

 

I'll take a guess that the first prospect was one of their advanced pitchers like Brock Stewart or Chase De Jong. A player like that makes sense for both sides. Once their guys get healthy the Dodgers have plenty of starting pitching depth and a few high minors players that could contribute to the back of the rotation. The Brewers might not need a starting pitcher right now to fill out the rotation but two years down the road a pitcher like Stewart or De Jong could fit real nicely in the middle of the rotation provided they hit or at least approach their ceiling.

 

So now it appears that Bellinger was the other prospect the Brewers wanted. It will be interesting to know what the Dodgers countered with? If I was sitting in Stearns shoes I'd be willing to compromise and take Alex Verdugo instead of Bellinger, but I wouldn't go any lower than that when taking on both the Puig contract and the McCarthy contract. If multiple prospects are added when Bellinger is subtracted out...a Buehler/Lux combo would be pretty attractive.

 

I also think it's pretty interesting posturing by the Dodgers acting like the back end of Braun's contract would be a major concern. The no-trade situation does not play into this scenario. The financial obligation to Braun would be 4 years, 80 million dollars. McCarthy is truly dead money for them, including him in the deal brings it down to 4 years, 60 million dollars. It wouldn't be appropriate to call Puig's contract dead money but it would be another 14 million that would be off the Dodger's book when calculating luxury tax thresholds. But let's just say the Braun deal is essentially a 4 year, 60 million dollar contract when subtracting the McCarthy contract. If Braun repeats his 2016 performance in 2017 and then has a 30% decrease in value each season after that his WAR over the four years would be something like 3.2, 2.4, 1.6, 1 which when calculated into dollar value (7.9 million per win) would come out to 64.78 million which is over the 60 million dollar mark. Even if Braun experiences a total crash and is a 0 WAR player in that last season the WAR totals come out to 3.2, 1.6, 0.8, 0 which calculates out to 44.24 million which is almost the mark of Braun's deal minus the McCarthy money minus the Puig money. About the only way a Braun deal that includes McCarthy would be a disaster financially for the Dodgers is if Braun goes to LA and immediately suffers a completely disabling back injury. A very much doubt that Dodger posturing about Braun's contract will sway Stearns' assessment of Braun's value.

Bellinger "should" be the prospect the Brewers want. There's no way the Dodgers said "no" to Braun for Puig/McCarthy/Bellinger/Top 15-20 org solely because we didn't ease the financial burden of Braun's final years. Serious question, does anybody actually think that's a fair deal to begin with and/or one the Dodgers would actually make? Clearly if I'm the Brewers I want it.

 

So LA's getting the final 4-5yrs of Braun's career and giving up Puig (AS talent who hasn't hit prime yet), Bellinger (who very well could be a Top 25 overall this year and should be a future AS 1b) + 15-20 org prospect (an org that is highly ranked to begin with). There is no way I can see LA completing that. If we add to Braun in the deal then it's more realistic. But I just can't see LA parting ways with Bellinger.

[brewerfan82]

I think the Dodgers would value adding Guerra to any deal that involves them losing pitching depth for next year (even if it's a McCarthy type). So maybe Braun/Guerra for Puig/McCarthy/Bellinger/Top 15-20 would be a closer starting point for possible discussions. Puig's and Braun's perceived actual trade values are so scattered it's hard to tell what each team would see as a fair trade, but that seems to address some needs for both teams. Dodgers upgrade outfield and starting rotation, rid a possible headache, and while they don't save much payroll, it's spent on better production. The Brewers get a top prospect (or two) and a wildcard in Puig that could turn into a big asset if he demonstrates his potential. Even a healthy, productive McCarthy is a possible attractive trade deadline piece. Having Guerra involved may necessitate involving another decent prospect or two to even it out, but I would guess it'd have to be someone further from the bigs.

[MrTPlush]

It wouldn't be appropriate to call Puig's contract dead money but it would be another 14 million that would be off the Dodger's book when calculating luxury tax thresholds.

 

Correct it bothers me when people try to subtract Puig's contract to make Braun look cheaper. They could salary dump Puig to multiple teams tomorrow if they wanted to for nothing in return. This was proved when two other teams, outside of the Brewers, claimed Puig back in August. I can imagine that number has grown due to it being the offseason.

[brewcrewdue80]

Just throwing this number out there on Braun:

At the Trade Deadline triple slash numbers were:

.321/.383/.515/.898

 

When the season ended they were:

.305/.365/.538/.903

 

Pretty much cements him as a .900OPS hitter. Something the NYM had just paid Cespedes 110million over 4years for. Ryan Braun is making 4/76. 8.5million per year difference. But for Braun his expense decreases while Cespedes' increases.

 

Put simply, especially now with this CBA. Braun's 8.5million a year difference is more than the equivalent of what MLB's #1 pick slot is worth. As well as exceeding what a team can spend in the international signing period. Whereas draft picks in the 1st round are about 50/50 to even just make the Majors. Braun is a guarantee to what I'd suspect teams wish their 1st round choices even reach.

 

A note on Yasiel Puig, he could have opted in to Arbitration, and didn't. 8.2 million is more than he values what he is worth in Arbitration.

If Puig really believed he was a 5WAR ability player and could stand by that he'd certainly have opted in to Arbitration.

 

I just cant fathom how Puig/McCarthy+2 prospects for Braun doesn't translate in to 1 of the big 3 Dodger Prospects mentioned not being included. It appears to me now, with this new CBA Braun should be of higher value to a team like the Dodgers.

[MrTPlush]

I think it was in the other thread, but I already explained that Cespedes>Braun money wise. I will copy paste it over here later. There is not $8.5mil surplus value on Brauns contract yearly.

 

Yasiel Puig not opting into arbitration was more than just 2017 salary. Opting into arbitration would have wiped out his $9mil 2018 salary that is a sure thing. Arvitration would not have been kind to his down years. And he would have risked losing the 2018 year he is already assured. Arbitration would have given him a similar salary with upside to gain even more in 2018.

[HighHeat19]

The Dodgers brass is playing cat & mouse with the Brewers right now. And McCutcheon is the toy.

[MrTPlush]

The Dodgers brass is playing cat & mouse with the Brewers right now. And McCutcheon is the toy.

 

They haven't really been connected to him. However they have been connected to a ton of other more expensive trade options. It's very possible the Dodgers aren't that interested in Braun any more. We all assume they are because of the August deal, but it may not be that way.

[HighHeat19]

Maybe not in a direct sense but even in a indirect sense to see what McCutcheon pulls in, to set the bar.

 

The Brewers also have some nice side items to compliment in Junior, Scooter, and Thornburg. The Dodgers have to be interested.

 

I don't care what anyone says, the Dodgers don't want Puig. Their actions are smoke screens to drive Puig's value. Nobody can tell you how bad the cancer is except for the person that has it. And that's how I see the Dodgers and Puig. And I maybe one of the few who doesn't care for a Puig acquisition. Were looking at Milwaukee's version of Sheffield. Not San Diego's, Florida's, Detroit's, Met's, Yankee's version. Sheffield 2.0 all over again. And for you younger fans.....it wasn't good.

[jerichoholicninja]

Maybe not in a direct sense but even in a indirect sense to see what McCutcheon pulls in, to set the bar.

 

The Brewers also have some nice side items to compliment in Junior, Scooter, and Thornburg. The Dodgers have to be interested.

 

I don't care what anyone says, the Dodgers don't want Puig. Their actions are smoke screens to drive Puig's value. Nobody can tell you how bad the cancer is except for the person that has it. And that's how I see the Dodgers and Puig. And I maybe one of the few who doesn't care for a Puig acquisition. Were looking at Milwaukee's version of Sheffield. Not San Diego's, Florida's, Detroit's, Met's, Yankee's version. Sheffield 2.0 all over again. And for you younger fans.....it wasn't good.

 

Um, no. Puig isn't tanking plays to get traded. He may have an attitude but the two are not even in the same universe.