What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[JohnBriggs12]

Players of Braun's caliber don't (generally) go unclaimed just because teams realize we'd pull him back, so I really don't think that's it. If they wanted him at that price, they'd still put in a claim which would give them exclusive negotiating rights for him. Whether or not they think we'd pull him back, a claim still allows that team the right to negotiate with us for Braun.

 

I don't think the issue is the average yearly price of Braun's contract, it's the length. If Braun was just under contract through next year at 20M, or even just 2018, it probably wouldn't be a big issue. Through 2020 is a long commitment. Just because Braun's contract is a bargain now doesn't mean it'll be a bargain in 2 years. It might be, but that's a risk. It didn't look like a bargain to most a year ago.

 

Also, the big spenders also have to contend with the luxury tax, as someone pointed out. Any contract the Dodgers take on will cost the Dodgers an extra 50%. So that 20M next year for Braun at full price will cost the Dodgers 30M, at which point it doesn't look like such a bargain anymore.

 

So while that doesn't mean the Dodgers aren't interested in Braun, it's a plenty good enough reason for them not to claim him on waivers and risk 30M a year for a 32 year old. They'll no doubt be looking for some sort of salary relief in a deal (or return a big contract to us), which actually works out fine for us because it seems we are willing to offer some sort of salary relief in a trade for Braun to maximize the return.

 

His salary goes down to $19 million in 2019 and $17 million in 2020. Yes there's a $4 million buyout for 2021 too but he might still be productive enough that another year at $15 million would be reasonable. Brewers paid what But he'll be 35 in 2019 and 36 in 2020. It's not like he'll be 42. Brewers paid Aramis Ramirez $30 million over 2 years at age 36-37, less what they saved for two months.

[reillymcshane]

How is it that he's vilified for steroids more than Johnny Peralta, Melky Cabrera, and others?

 

The way he acted and basically accused other's of botching the test he took when caught..

While other players have claimed ignorance as to how they took a banned substance, Braun went after a person...

 

I am getting tired of reading this. The person who collected the sample did not follow the agreed upon process between the MLB and the MLBPA. So Braun had every right to go after him and was justified in doing so.

 

Legally the MLB should have thrown this out before it even became public as the chain of custody for the samples did not follow the guidelines.

We've hashed this out before in a lot of other threads, but if Braun had simply said, "We believe that there was an issue with how the sample was handled, and therefore it is inadmissible," then most people would have been okay with that. Instead he insinuated that the guy had done something purposely to screw with Braun. This was the big sin in people's eyes. He threw a guy under the bus - not just saying he had screwed up - but that there was some nefarious plot out to get him.

 

I don't live in Wisconsin, but I can say that in talking with people where I live, they really don't care about the PED thing all that much. Everyone knows a lot of people have done it. What they remember is Braun going on camera, insisting he was innocent, and casting doubts on the integrity of the sample collector. He 'threw the guy under the bus' is the common thing I heard. Braun is seen as a coward who was willing to smear another human being to protect his own reputation (and it all came back to bite him big time).

 

As I said, if Braun had come out and said, "I didn't do this. I believe that the sample is tainted - and therefore inadmissible - due to handling issues" - he would be okay. But he chose a different route.

[SandyTolan]

I see comments about how the Dodgers should be giving up four prospects for Braun, when they could wait until the off-season and give up nothing.

 

Not sure what you mean - I don't think the Brewers' price tag will go down at all during the off season. If anything, it would go up, right? Plus, the Dodgers could really use Braun NOW, in the middle of a tight pennant race and for the postseason.

[pacopete4]

I'm hoping other teams don't want him. That way we have a top 5 bat in baseball hitting #3 for us for the remainder of his contract.

[tmwiese55]

I don't think the steroid issue has any impact on the way MLB teams view Braun. None. Zero. What I think most MLB teams see is a player that is 32 years old that has back and hand (thumb) problems and it's not likely that either of those two injury concerns ever go completely away. He has a guaranteed contract for 4 more years and from the end of this season forward is still to be paid a minimum of 80 million dollars. He may have a favorable contract now but how likely will that be in 2019 and 2020? It's only natural that a trading partner will look for the Brewers to pick up part of that deal or dump a bad contract on Milwaukee.

 

I think this summarizes it exactly, it's all about his age and always having a nagging injury of some kidn. And I bet LAD would be a lot more willing if they had a DH, but without those last two years are more likely to be an issue.

[FVBrewerFan]

I see comments about how the Dodgers should be giving up four prospects for Braun, when they could wait until the off-season and give up nothing.

 

Not sure what you mean - I don't think the Brewers' price tag will go down at all during the off season. If anything, it would go up, right? Plus, the Dodgers could really use Braun NOW, in the middle of a tight pennant race and for the postseason.

 

I explained this in my first paragraph of the post. The Dodgers can go out and sign a FA in the off-season, giving up ZERO prospects in return. So why would they give up four prospects for Braun?

 

As you said, if they want a big bat NOW, yes that's a different story. I just have a feeling (with no evidence) Mark A is directly involved here. He most likely wants a huge haul because he really doesn't want to let Braun go. I just don't think that's realistic when there's limited (if any) competition for him.

[adambr2]

Players of Braun's caliber don't (generally) go unclaimed just because teams realize we'd pull him back, so I really don't think that's it. If they wanted him at that price, they'd still put in a claim which would give them exclusive negotiating rights for him. Whether or not they think we'd pull him back, a claim still allows that team the right to negotiate with us for Braun.

 

I don't think the issue is the average yearly price of Braun's contract, it's the length. If Braun was just under contract through next year at 20M, or even just 2018, it probably wouldn't be a big issue. Through 2020 is a long commitment. Just because Braun's contract is a bargain now doesn't mean it'll be a bargain in 2 years. It might be, but that's a risk. It didn't look like a bargain to most a year ago.

 

Also, the big spenders also have to contend with the luxury tax, as someone pointed out. Any contract the Dodgers take on will cost the Dodgers an extra 50%. So that 20M next year for Braun at full price will cost the Dodgers 30M, at which point it doesn't look like such a bargain anymore.

 

So while that doesn't mean the Dodgers aren't interested in Braun, it's a plenty good enough reason for them not to claim him on waivers and risk 30M a year for a 32 year old. They'll no doubt be looking for some sort of salary relief in a deal (or return a big contract to us), which actually works out fine for us because it seems we are willing to offer some sort of salary relief in a trade for Braun to maximize the return.

 

His salary goes down to $19 million in 2019 and $17 million in 2020. Yes there's a $4 million buyout for 2021 too but he might still be productive enough that another year at $15 million would be reasonable. Brewers paid what But he'll be 35 in 2019 and 36 in 2020. It's not like he'll be 42. Brewers paid Aramis Ramirez $30 million over 2 years at age 36-37, less what they saved for two months.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with any of this, but none of it changes the 50% luxury tax problem for some teams. Even a $17M contract with a 50% luxury tax costs $25.5M.

 

I also don't see what difference it makes that he'll be 36 vs. 42 at the end of this. There's still a chance he could be really productive, or he could be bad enough to not justify anything more than a minor league contract. Some guys can remain productive well into their 30s, others hit a wall in their early 30s and never recover. Look at Prince Fielder. 32 and he's done. I know he's hurt, but he wasn't a shadow of his former self before the injury. Look at Carlos Gomez. I'm not saying Braun will definitely hit a wall before 2020, but I don't blame other teams for considering the possibility.

 

Father Time does not catch up to everyone at the same rate.

[MrTPlush]

I'm hoping other teams don't want him. That way we have a top 5 bat in baseball hitting #3 for us for the remainder of his contract.

 

Top 5? Top 5...? He isn't even Top 20 this year and I doubt it gets much better over the next 4 years. Include some defense and he is outside the Top 50.

[LouisEly]

I think we're missing the obvious. Yes, Braun's contract isn't bad. But if the Dodgers want a bat, why not sign a FA in the off-season and not have to give up any prospects?

As I've mentioned before, when it comes to FA they are going to be competing against the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Rangers, Braves, and the rest of the league with no guarantee that player will sign with them. If they want someone of Braun's caliber, it will cost much more than 4/$76M. With the Dodgers in the luxury tax penalty, if they can't afford to trade for Braun they sure as heck can't afford to get into a bidding war with a FA.

 

Braun is on pace for a 4.6 WAR season (according to B-R.com); on top of a 3.8 WAR season last year, that averages to be 4.2 WAR/year. Let's look at some of the recent free agent contracts that have been signed:

 

Jason Heyward (I think his defense is overvalued in WAR calculations, but for his career he was about a 5 WAR/year player, 6 WAR/year in the two years prior to FA, career .765 OPS): 8/$184M

Justin Upton (about 3.8 WAR/year in the prior two seasons before FA, career .813 OPS): 6/$132M

Matt Kemp (interesting, 8.2 WAR the year prior to his deal, -1.1 WAR two years prior): 8/$160M (in 2012)

Josh Hamilton (avg 3.8 WAR/year the two years prior to his deal): 5/$114M

Jacoby Ellsbury (5.7 WAR year before FA, 1.0 WAR two years before, average 3.6 WAR, career .761 OPS): 7/$153M

Shin-Soo Choo (3.9 WAR/year the two years prior to FA): 7/$130M

 

Heck, Brett Gardner got 4/$52M, and he has a career OPS of .734 (~.750 in the two years prior to his deal).

 

Plus in a trade the Dodgers can include a Howie Kendrick, Brandon McCarthy, Andre Ethier, etc., to shed salary to get under the luxury tax threshold. Otherwise, if they sign a FA, they are essentially going to have to pay someone to take salary off their hands via prospects. If they want to stay under the luxury tax, it will cost them prospects one way or another.

[LouisEly]

I'm hoping other teams don't want him. That way we have a top 5 bat in baseball hitting #3 for us for the remainder of his contract.

 

Top 5? Top 5...? He isn't even Top 20 this year and I doubt it gets much better over the next 4 years. Include some defense and he is outside the Top 50.

Currently he's 14th in OPS in all of baseball.

[pacopete4]

I'm hoping other teams don't want him. That way we have a top 5 bat in baseball hitting #3 for us for the remainder of his contract.

 

Top 5? Top 5...? He isn't even Top 20 this year and I doubt it gets much better over the next 4 years. Include some defense and he is outside the Top 50.

 

First off I mis-typed and meant to put top 5 outfielder. But to say he's not in the top 20 is flat out just wrong. Pretty much in every offensive category he is hovering top 10. And that is coming off of back surgery and other injuries. I'm in the camp that feels he's healing and will only be better next season. I think he's got 2-3 years left of flat out being Ryan Braun and a couple more seasons of being above average. And his defense is just fine out in left field.

[CheezWizHed]

As of today:

OPS: 14th

Fangraphs Offense Ranking: 22nd

Fangraphs WAR: 52nd

 

Interesting to note that Trout has a negative Fangraph's defensive ranking.

[MrTPlush]

I'm hoping other teams don't want him. That way we have a top 5 bat in baseball hitting #3 for us for the remainder of his contract.

 

Top 5? Top 5...? He isn't even Top 20 this year and I doubt it gets much better over the next 4 years. Include some defense and he is outside the Top 50.

 

First off I mis-typed and meant to put top 5 outfielder. But to say he's not in the top 20 is flat out just wrong. Pretty much in every offensive category he is hovering top 10. And that is coming off of back surgery and other injuries. I'm in the camp that feels he's healing and will only be better next season. I think he's got 2-3 years left of flat out being Ryan Braun and a couple more seasons of being above average. And his defense is just fine out in left field.

 

Statistically one could make a pretty good argument to say Braun isn't a Top 20 offensive talent. Though he is still pretty close and that isn't anything to sneeze at. That being said I'd be more worried of a possible decline not really where he stands right now.

 

He is coming off of injuries, but at his age staying away from injuries is the real challenge.

[brewcrewdue80]

Since 2015 began, Braun's lowest OPS calendar month was .716. Hes had as many 1.0+months as hes had .716-799 months. This battling these injuries and aging concerns. That FA pricing post above how many below .800OPS got paid?

Braun's lowest calendar Avg. this year is .287

 

Putting characters like Gomez or Fielder aging declines sudden is poorly comparable. Take a 2year wonder who corkscrews himself in to the ground, or a Hefty long believed wasnt going to Age well 1b/DH? Braun is approaching 10years of performance better than both consistently. I hate to break it those awaiting this downturn but ITS NOT HAPPENING IN NEXT 3 OR 4YEARS THROUGH HIS CONTRACT. A GOAT Brewer hitter who's as consistent as he is, wont fall off precipitously. Top 20s Hitter in Baseball post 30, post thumb/back/neck issues. I just am tired of reading this concern 5months after it was a concern. How many months does he have to perform at the plate to understand drastic falloffs arent a month away?

[MrTPlush]

How many months does he have to perform at the plate to understand drastic falloffs arent a month away?

 

Who even said that? To answer your question though...until you can start predicting the future. It isn't a sure thing, but when you start throwing around $80mil it gives a team pause.

[DHonks]

How is it that he's vilified for steroids more than Johnny Peralta, Melky Cabrera, and others?

 

The way he acted and basically accused other's of botching the test he took when caught..

While other players have claimed ignorance as to how they took a banned substance, Braun went after a person...

 

 

That's kind of funny. Talk to a lawyer. They're tell you to deny any accusation until the evidence proves you guilty. Let's look at what we know (or suspect). Braun took a product to help him recover from the really bad groin injury. The product helped him get on the field, and he likely was under the impression it would not show up on a test. Other Brewers reportedly also had unusually high tests that day, including Prince Fielder (though not high enough to trigger a red flag). There was a chain of custody issue. Braun and his representatives' jobs was to place doubt in the arbiter's mind regarding the integrity of the test.

[MrTPlush]

How is it that he's vilified for steroids more than Johnny Peralta, Melky Cabrera, and others?

 

The way he acted and basically accused other's of botching the test he took when caught..

While other players have claimed ignorance as to how they took a banned substance, Braun went after a person...

 

 

That's kind of funny. Talk to a lawyer. They're tell you to deny any accusation until the evidence proves you guilty. Let's look at what we know (or suspect). Braun took a product to help him recover from the really bad groin injury. The product helped him get on the field, and he likely was under the impression it would not show up on a test. Other Brewers reportedly also had unusually high tests that day, including Prince Fielder (though not high enough to trigger a red flag). There was a chain of custody issue. Braun and his representatives' jobs was to place doubt in the arbiter's mind regarding the integrity of the test.

 

Denying is one thing. Going out of your way to call is a bunch of bull, questioning whether the collector tainted it, and a slew of other things is a whole lot different. When you know you were cheating and it was likely your test was indeed positive you should probably take the quiet road. I remember at first he was pretty quiet and released short to the point statements. As time went on he opened his mouth a little wider and that's where he dug himself into a big hole.

[adambr2]

Since 2015 began, Braun's lowest OPS calendar month was .716. Hes had as many 1.0+months as hes had .716-799 months. This battling these injuries and aging concerns. That FA pricing post above how many below .800OPS got paid?

Braun's lowest calendar Avg. this year is .287

 

Putting characters like Gomez or Fielder aging declines sudden is poorly comparable. Take a 2year wonder who corkscrews himself in to the ground, or a Hefty long believed wasnt going to Age well 1b/DH? Braun is approaching 10years of performance better than both consistently. I hate to break it those awaiting this downturn but ITS NOT HAPPENING IN NEXT 3 OR 4YEARS THROUGH HIS CONTRACT. A GOAT Brewer hitter who's as consistent as he is, wont fall off precipitously. Top 20s Hitter in Baseball post 30, post thumb/back/neck issues. I just am tired of reading this concern 5months after it was a concern. How many months does he have to perform at the plate to understand drastic falloffs arent a month away?

 

You don't like the Gomez and Fielder comparables? Ok, how about David Wright? Josh Hamilton? Adam Dunn?

 

There is absolutely no way you can predict with certainty that a great player with an injury and PED checkered past won't hit a wall in his mid 30s and decline significantly and suddenly. Not even if you type it in all caps.

[FVBrewerFan]

That's true. But there is no way you can predict with certainty that a great player in their mid 20s won't hit a wall and decline suddenly. Whether it's due to injury, or anything else. We see plenty of examples of that as well. So you would think teams would never want to sign any FA or trade for a player.

 

But again, I agree there is obvious risk with Braun. At the same time he has been incredibly consistent throughout the years, which should make the Dodgers more comfortable that he can put up 2016 numbers for a couple more years, and still be a solid bat after that.

[tmwiese55]

McCutcheon is dropping off at age 29. Why? Simply because he's not as good of a hitter as Braun. Braun is a pure hitter and HOF player if not for the PEDs with a perfect swing. He will continue to hit well for a few more years when healthy. Yea, maybe .320 drops to 280 over the next 3-4 years but he's not all of a sudden going to hit 230. Again, health is the big question with him. Not his ability to hit. The other team's concern is a 4 year deal to a guy who constantly has a nagging injury. A team with a DH would have less concern but unfortunately the most logical spot for him is LAD.

 

Basically no one is going to give you the value he should have in a trade. So you might as well just keep him here so we have something to watch the next two years while the team isn't good. If he's healthy/good enough to contribute 3-4 years from now it's just gravy at that point.

[FVBrewerFan]

Basically no one is going to give you the value he should have in a trade. So you might as well just keep him here so we have something to watch the next two years while the team isn't good. If he's healthy/good enough to contribute 3-4 years from now it's just gravy at that point.

 

Agree completely with your first paragraph, but not with your conclusion here. Yes, I don't think they will get the value they "should" in a trade. But I would rather have DeLeon in return straight-up, than the pleasure of watching Braun on a losing team the next couple years. Braun provides perhaps the last chance for a while to bring back a top quality SP.

[brewerfan82]

Basically no one is going to give you the value he should have in a trade. So you might as well just keep him here so we have something to watch the next two years while the team isn't good. If he's healthy/good enough to contribute 3-4 years from now it's just gravy at that point.

 

Agree completely with your first paragraph, but not with your conclusion here. Yes, I don't think they will get the value they "should" in a trade. But I would rather have DeLeon in return straight-up, than the pleasure of watching Braun on a losing team the next couple years. Braun provides perhaps the last chance for a while to bring back a top quality SP.

Agree completely with this. Braun is potentially the biggest, single, baseball upgrade available to teams between now and the start of next year, so he definitely is valuable enough to other teams to warrant a top prospect. However, on the flip side, his value to a team that won't be competitive for the next couple seasons, like the Brewers, is much lower. Really if he's not going to be a part of, or won't be productive once we are competitive, we should take what we can for him while he still does have value. Unfortunately that means we don't have much leverage outside of teams competing for his services, and his contract is just large enough and he's just old enough where he doesn't fit into many teams budgets and needs. We wouldn't trade away a Hader at this point for a Nelson Cruz to win a couple more games, so we shouldn't hold onto a Braun if we can add another top arm.

[JosephC]

In the "Braun trade value now" I had posted the following prior to the trade deadline:

 

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If the Dodgers are ready to deal Puig, do you think this would be a fair deal for each side?

 

Dodgers get:

OF-Ryan Braun

8 million dollars

 

Brewers get:

OF-Yasiel Puig

RHP-Grant Holmes (since traded to the A's)

OF-Starling Heredia

RHP-Imani Abdullah (currently DL'ed)

 

Thought process is the basic deal is Braun for Puig and Holmes, but Puig's money for 2017 and 2018 is 4 million less than Braun's defered money so the Brewers throw in 4 million immediately to balance that out. Then they basically purchase Heredia and Abdullah for 4 million to get the deal to go through.

 

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In terms of prospect value, probably the most similar player to Grant Holmes left in the Dodger's system is OF-Alex Verdugo. So sub in Verdugo for Holmes and I would guess this would be the type of deal we'd see in a Braun/Puig swap. Note that Abdullah is currently DL'ed so it might be another PTBNL situation if the Brewers are intersted in him.

 

I don't think the Dodgers have the luxury of trading Jose DeLeon. I've read that he's the next player in line for a call-up and with the number of pitchers DL'ed for the Dodgers I just don't think they are in a position to move him.

 

I really like RHP-Yadier Alvarez. Kind of fits in the Triston McKenzie department. Tall, lean righty with a big arm and is overmatching the competition in the lower levels. Wouldn't be all the shocked if Stearns attempted to build a package around him instead of the higher rated prospects.

 

All that being said, I still think the Astros are the best fit for Braun. Convert the option year into a player option and I don't think the no-trade clause is an issue at all.

[adambr2]

McCutcheon is dropping off at age 29. Why? Simply because he's not as good of a hitter as Braun. Braun is a pure hitter and HOF player if not for the PEDs with a perfect swing. He will continue to hit well for a few more years when healthy. Yea, maybe .320 drops to 280 over the next 3-4 years but he's not all of a sudden going to hit 230. Again, health is the big question with him. Not his ability to hit. The other team's concern is a 4 year deal to a guy who constantly has a nagging injury. A team with a DH would have less concern but unfortunately the most logical spot for him is LAD.

 

Basically no one is going to give you the value he should have in a trade. So you might as well just keep him here so we have something to watch the next two years while the team isn't good. If he's healthy/good enough to contribute 3-4 years from now it's just gravy at that point.

 

Andrew McCutchen is/was a pretty good hitter. Braun is a better hitter, but the difference isn't so significant that we can just assume that McCutchen's dropoff can't happen to Braun. Braun is also 3 years older already.

 

Also, you say health is his big concern, not his ability to hit, as if the two aren't related. Injuries can and have hurt his ability to hit in the past. I'm not going to assume that a 35 year Braun dealing with constant nagging injuries would be a .240 hitter with HR power in the teens, but I certainly think it's within the realm of possibilities.

[pacopete4]

Braun's ability to hit while injured has to do with how awesome he really is. I actually think it might help his as he's getting older and the bat slows a bit. He has developed one of the prettiest swings to the opposite field I have ever seen. It's not that he just can hit the other way but he hits it with authority. Line drive ropes that whiz past the infield. And with little effort in the swing. Sometimes with pitches 2-3 inches off the plate. It is something that very few can do and still be able to yank a ball 400+ft to your pull side. Even with the young pups on their way up in the next 1-3/4 years, he might still be the best hitter on this team at that time. That's how good he is. I just hope I'm right assuming that he's on the trend up with injuries. I can understand being on the other side but I think he's trending up.