What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[And That]

Ethier had 9.153 years going into the season. He reached the 10/5 rights plateau about 3 weeks into this season.

[HighHeat19]

Any trade with Dodgers that include Braun have to include Deleon AND Yadier Alvarez.

[MrTPlush]

Any trade with Dodgers that includes Braun has to include Deleon AND Yadier Alvarez.

 

Its a borderline pipe dream to get one of those guys.

[mlloyd10]

Any trade with Dodgers that includes Braun has to include Deleon AND Yadier Alvarez.

 

Its a borderline pipe dream to get one of those guys.

 

I would say Yadier Alvarez could be one of the "major pieces" that they were talking about - De Leon will be a top 20 prospect next season - Doubt we get him.

[brewcrewdue80]

You can't say any of the best prospects from the Dodgers with Plush around, He's convinced 2years of Puig if far more valuable than 4years of Braun.

 

I agree on Yadier Alvarez with him, but that's due to they paid just as much money for him as they did Puig. That cost the Dodgers 2years of International signings.

 

Just don't get somehow some way, Braun at 8.2BWar the last 2years combined and Puig 2.4WAR in last 2 years are I guess of equal value, with Puig being more valuable because of age and 5WAR seasons 2years ago. Also when Puig is coming back to his 5WAR+ ability immediately when becoming Brewer, he must also be dropping his cancer clubhouse presence that the Dodgers are desperately trying to rid of.

 

At the same time Plush won't reveal all his cards and suggest who he believes the 2 prospects should be but they certainly don't contain any of the Dodgers top 8 from what I can tell.

[MrTPlush]

I will keep waiting for where I said Puig has more value than Braun. Braun has a lot more potential value because you can eat money to make his contract attractive. If you ate no money? Yah Braun is pretty much impossible to move with little value. Sorry just the reality of the situation.

 

Your last paragraph is also a bunch of lies. You actually only have to go back one page to find out what my guess was. It also included two Top 8 prospects. So nice try.

[adambr2]

You can't say any of the best prospects from the Dodgers with Plush around, He's convinced 2years of Puig if far more valuable than 4years of Braun.

 

I agree on Yadier Alvarez with him, but that's due to they paid just as much money for him as they did Puig. That cost the Dodgers 2years of International signings.

 

Just don't get somehow some way, Braun at 8.2BWar the last 2years combined and Puig 2.4WAR in last 2 years are I guess of equal value, with Puig being more valuable because of age and 5WAR seasons 2years ago. Also when Puig is coming back to his 5WAR+ ability immediately when becoming Brewer, he must also be dropping his cancer clubhouse presence that the Dodgers are desperately trying to rid of.

 

At the same time Plush won't reveal all his cards and suggest who he believes the 2 prospects should be but they certainly don't contain any of the Dodgers top 8 from what I can tell.

 

Not sure what your source is, but Braun has a 3.3 WAR this year and 2.9 WAR last year according to Fangraphs, combined 6.2. If you extended it out to 3, it would be a total of 7 WAR for Braun and 7.9 for Puig.

 

I'm not saying Puig is the more valuable commodity in a Braun/Puig deal, but that's how easy it is to manipulate statistics to say what you want.

[tmwiese55]

I hope if we get Puig back that it is only with the hope of playing him a half season and flipping at the deadline when a guy like Brinson is ready to come up. I'd prefer not to have anything to do with the guy. He has not been good at baseball in over 2 years, when does that matter more than the hype around him? I'm hoping Puig's value in the trade is only as salary coming back and that us and LAD aren't putting any value on him since they basically kicked him right off the team this year. If we could offload his salary right away to someone else for no return other than an Adam Lind type lottery ticket I'd be perfectly fine with him never playing a game here.

[MrTPlush]

If one of their Top 3 prospects(or Alvarez) isn't in a Braun trade it is basically a salary dump with us paying money for prospects. That is how I see it.

[TURBO]

I have very strong feelings on this whole Braun situation so here goes. I just don't get why the majority of fans are not only willing but actually excited at the thought of trading Ryan Braun who is one of the three best hitters in team history in what would pretty much amount to a salary dump. It makes no sense to me to trade a franchise icon for the likes of a malcontent in Puig, a salary dump who is worthless in McCarthy and what will probably be one or two mediocre at best prospects.

 

If some team offers the Brewers elite young talent in return I can understand a Braun trade although I am still against it. With this team having pretty much no players other than Braun and Garza making big money I just don't see why this type of trade would make any sense. The thought of taking on a contract like McCarthy from the Dodgers of all teams to make it more palatable for them to fit Braun into their unlimited budget upsets me and should really bother more fans.

 

It really comes down to this for me; in order to trade Braun the Brewers need to get elite and I stress elite prospects in return or there should be no deal. We already have tons of depth so acquiring some teams 5-15 rated prospects just doesn't do enough for this franchise. If we aren't going to get top young talent we should just let Braun retire in a Brewers uniform like Robin Yount did before him.

 

clap-clap-clap!

 

Great post and totally nothing but true... Thanks!

[TURBO]

I'm all for trading Braun and Thornburg for Puig, McCarthy and some combination of De Leon/Bellinger, Sheffield/Barnes/Lux and a couple of lower level lottery tickets. The hope is Puig and McCarthy can produce early next season so Stearns can flip them for more prospects and continue to stockpile our farm system.

 

It would be unwise to trade the face of our franchise, the most beloved player since Robin Yount, for two guys who you hope Stearns can flip. The flip talk drives me crazy. It isn't as easy as most think to "flip" other players. I hope Braun stays a Brewer, but is seems to me like we are going to have that idiot Puig on our opening day roster one way or another.

[reillymcshane]

I'm all for trading Braun and Thornburg for Puig, McCarthy and some combination of De Leon/Bellinger, Sheffield/Barnes/Lux and a couple of lower level lottery tickets. The hope is Puig and McCarthy can produce early next season so Stearns can flip them for more prospects and continue to stockpile our farm system.

 

It would be unwise to trade the face of our franchise, the most beloved player since Robin Yount, for two guys who you hope Stearns can flip. The flip talk drives me crazy. It isn't as easy as most think to "flip" other players. I hope Braun stays a Brewer, but is seems to me like we are going to have that idiot Puig on our opening day roster one way or another.

In BrewBalls defense, he said to flip Puig and McCarthy. His proposal is adding a top 20ish pitcher in De Leon or a top 50 guy in Bellinger (plus a couple of other guys who are probably on the cusp of the Top 100 area). So the real prize is a potential top of the rotation arm.

 

Personally, I'd be all over that deal - but I'm skeptical that the Dodgers are offering that much on the prospect end. But that's just my guess.

[brewcrewdue80]

You can't say any of the best prospects from the Dodgers with Plush around, He's convinced 2years of Puig if far more valuable than 4years of Braun.

 

I agree on Yadier Alvarez with him, but that's due to they paid just as much money for him as they did Puig. That cost the Dodgers 2years of International signings.

 

Just don't get somehow some way, Braun at 8.2BWar the last 2years combined and Puig 2.4WAR in last 2 years are I guess of equal value

 

Not sure what your source is, but Braun has a 3.3 WAR this year and 2.9 WAR last year according to Fangraphs, combined 6.2. If you extended it out to 3, it would be a total of 7 WAR for Braun and 7.9 for Puig.

 

I'm not saying Puig is the more valuable commodity in a Braun/Puig deal, but that's how easy it is to manipulate statistics to say what you want.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/braunry02.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/puigya01.shtml

 

By now, if you read my posts towards WAR should have an idea that I'm talking about Baseball-reference. Also you see the B in front of WAR stands for Baseball-Reference WAR. Fangraphs WAR is FWAR After going back and forth with the two, I just agree more to what Baseball-Reference rates to a player vs Fangraphs which as you can see is vastly varying. Fangraphs obviously far overrates Defense. Braun has 220chances via BRef in 125 games. That is under 2 chances a game. PAs in same time? 555 as of now. 1.76 chances defensively a game. 4.44PAs offensively per game. That's 2.52-1 Offensively to Defensively impact a game. Keep in mind that Fangraphs has Negative rankings to both Puig and Braun for the OF to Average. Mike Trout if you take Fangraphs seriously on Defense is exactly Avg combined the last 4 seasons. Take away 2012 and he'd be below avg as a player according to them for his career.

 

So I don't like FWAR in comparison to BWAR. Plush has said Puig was 5WAR his 1st two seasons. Fangraphs has him as 4.1 his Rookie year. Would make Puig a 4WAR player his 1st season. BWAR at 4.9 and 5.3 agrees to 5WAR in his statement.

[FVBrewerFan]

I'm all for trading Braun and Thornburg for Puig, McCarthy and some combination of De Leon/Bellinger, Sheffield/Barnes/Lux and a couple of lower level lottery tickets. The hope is Puig and McCarthy can produce early next season so Stearns can flip them for more prospects and continue to stockpile our farm system.

 

It would be unwise to trade the face of our franchise, the most beloved player since Robin Yount, for two guys who you hope Stearns can flip. The flip talk drives me crazy. It isn't as easy as most think to "flip" other players. I hope Braun stays a Brewer, but is seems to me like we are going to have that idiot Puig on our opening day roster one way or another.

 

Wait, Braun is the most beloved player since Yount? Not even close. Even if that was true, has nothing to do with building a perennial contender.

 

I don't see anyone advocating trading Braun for the sole or even primary reason as a salary dump. You need a top pitching prospect in return, period. Whatever other parts come along with that deal, so be it.

[SandyTolan]

I think it's worth pointing out that Puig has a .961 OPS since his callup -- sure, only 46 ABs, but still, that's pretty good, and maybe he is turning some kind of corner and won't be just a throw-in, whether we all like it or not.

[TURBO]

I'm all for trading Braun and Thornburg for Puig, McCarthy and some combination of De Leon/Bellinger, Sheffield/Barnes/Lux and a couple of lower level lottery tickets. The hope is Puig and McCarthy can produce early next season so Stearns can flip them for more prospects and continue to stockpile our farm system.

 

It would be unwise to trade the face of our franchise, the most beloved player since Robin Yount, for two guys who you hope Stearns can flip. The flip talk drives me crazy. It isn't as easy as most think to "flip" other players. I hope Braun stays a Brewer, but is seems to me like we are going to have that idiot Puig on our opening day roster one way or another.

 

Wait, Braun is the most beloved player since Yount? Not even close. Even if that was true, has nothing to do with building a perennial contender.

 

 

Not even close? Seriously? Who would it be then? Lucroy? He's gone... Sabathia is probably up there, but Braun has been a fan favorite since he became a Brewer, PED scandal and all.

 

If not Braun, who would it be?

[FVBrewerFan]

Fielder, Lucroy, Y Betancourt, Hart, TPlush, Sabathia, Sexson, Burnitz. Just off the top of my head.

 

He may be the most beloved by YOU, and that's fine. But talk to people about Braun over the years, and people really didn't "love" him even before the PED thing. The that happened, and he really lost his luster to a lot of fans. Look at his (likely) last AB at Miller Park. It wasn't a crazy loud or long tribute by the fans, like at all. Casual fans I talk to just kind of shrug off a trade, they don't seem to be bothered by it. We're talking about a future HOF player, and most fans really don't care if he's traded, which should tell us something.

 

None of that has anything to do with whether he should be traded or not, just giving you examples of players that fans really loved.

[Roderick]

 

 

Not even close? Seriously? Who would it be then? Lucroy? He's gone... Sabathia is probably up there, but Braun has been a fan favorite since he became a Brewer, PED scandal and all.

 

If not Braun, who would it be?

 

I don't think anyone will disagree that Braun is the current player that the fans best know (may be the only player that casual fans could name of the top of their head).

 

Before the PEDs scandal, yes, probably the fan favorite overall. I don't think after the PED scandal, that he is the fan favorite - just best known as I mentioned. That is my take when talking baseball with buddies.

[tmwiese55]

I don't recall anyone have any beef with him before the scandal, that's a bit revisionist history. The guy did nothing but come up and mash and get huge hits for us. Only thing I could think of people making fun of was his cheesy Kwik Trip ads.

 

Puig's hitting since he came up besides being such a small sample is heavily skewed to only facing lefties. Doesn't Braun hit like .690 vs lefties?

 

This argument has gone on for weeks now and it's still the same no matter how much arguing there is. If you get good legit pitching prospects back, then do it. If they expect you to just give them Braun for nothing as a salary dump just to help the big city Dodgers then say no and just let him play it out here. Even if the last year or so he's not that good or if he gets hurt it's not huge because we have no other salary.

[MrTPlush]

Why does everyone shrug off the money aspect? "Oh well if we pay Braun $20mil to not hit or be injured that is ok." Uhhh, not really ok. We could use that money for other things to improve this team. Just because we can afford it doesn't mean we can't better ourselves not being tied to it. Wasting money or spending it on things that do nothing for us is never a good thing.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't recall anyone have any beef with him before the scandal, that's a bit revisionist history.

 

Never said anyone had a "beef with him." He was just not ever really likeable as a person. In general, I don't think people thought he was a jerk or anything, just always has come off as being a little smug.

 

That's not to say fans didn't like him, and a whole lot of fans still do. He just never had that personal connection to casual fans like the names I mentioned above.

[A Swing and A Drive]

The Dodgers are NOT going to be trading Yadier Alvarez anytime soon. His upside is huge and they have way too much invested in him to move him at his current value.

 

I think there is maybe a 5% chance we could pry De Leon from them, but it would mean taking on Ethier instead of Puig in a deal.

 

One thing is clear. The time to trade Braun is now. His value will never be higher. It is currently just north of zero.

 

The only way we get a elite prospect for Braun is if they take on a bunch of dead money (i.e. Ethier AND McCarthy) in order to offset Braun's contract, thus giving him value. The more they take on, the more they get for him.

 

My belief, is that Sterns is intrigued by Puig's potential ceiling and would like to acquire him, if only to trade him in a year or so for a massive haul (after an all-star caliber season). It's a gamble. But Sterns believes it's better to gamble on someone entering their prime, instead of someone exiting their prime.

 

Personally, I would rather the Brewers pass on Puig and his issues. I also don't want to be stuck with Ethier, blocking youngsters development going forward with a negative valued contract.

 

Ideally, if Puig is taken out of any potential deal, they COULD land someone like De Leon, but my guess is they would just take on McCarthy and target prospect depth.

 

Dodgers get:

OF Ryan Braun ('17=$19M, '18=$19,'19=$18M,'20=$16,'21=$15 Mutual option/$4 buyout)

 

Brewers get:

RHP Brandon McCarthy ('17=$10M, '18=$10M, '19= $8M option)

RHP Walker Buehler(#7 Mlb.com prospect rank)

SS Gavin Lux (#9)

RHP Brock Stewart (#14)

RHP Chase De Jong (#17)

 

If Sterns really wants Puig, put him back in the deal and take out Stewart and Lux.

[MrTPlush]

Ryan Braun is overall the face of the franchise and the most popular fan favorite. That being said he is not godly by any means. Like every fan favorite before him he can go bye bye and life will move on. I don't think Braun ever got to an extreme level of "lovable". In 2011 he played along side a lot of incredible players. 2012 he probably would have been that "lovable" guy but he got caught for PED, then he got busted in 2013 and missed half the year, and then in 2014 he had just an ok year. By that time a lot of fans were turned off.

 

The super fan bandwagon you are referring to doesn't exist as much as you think. He is not on Yount level and never will be.

[tmwiese55]

Why does everyone shrug off the money aspect? "Oh well if we pay Braun $20mil to not hit or be injured that is ok." Uhhh, not really ok. We could use that money for other things to improve this team. Just because we can afford it doesn't mean we can't better ourselves not being tied to it. Wasting money or spending it on things that do nothing for us is never a good thing.

 

Fair point. I guess what I mean is that it's part of the risk that we all know we're taking and I accept that risk. I think we all knew the positives that could come, just generally entertaining us the next 2ish years while team is blah, and the chance that he continues to hit for all the years of the contract and contribute while the team starts to win again. Probably won't be hitting 320 or anything by the end but 280 plus with 25ish homers is still a solid player. The risk is that he could get hurt or have a quick decline and then we have a year or two of a bad contract. Just saying that I accept that risk if no one is willing to give us legit prospects because we have no other salary.

[MrTPlush]

Why does everyone shrug off the money aspect? "Oh well if we pay Braun $20mil to not hit or be injured that is ok." Uhhh, not really ok. We could use that money for other things to improve this team. Just because we can afford it doesn't mean we can't better ourselves not being tied to it. Wasting money or spending it on things that do nothing for us is never a good thing.

 

Fair point. I guess what I mean is that it's part of the risk that we all know we're taking and I accept that risk. I think we all knew the positives that could come, just generally entertaining us the next 2ish years while team is blah, and the chance that he continues to hit for all the years of the contract and contribute while the team starts to win again. Probably won't be hitting 320 or anything by the end but 280 plus with 25ish homers is still a solid player. The risk is that he could get hurt or have a quick decline and then we have a year or two of a bad contract. Just saying that I accept that risk if no one is willing to give us legit prospects because we have no other salary.

 

I will agree the risk of holding onto him payroll wise is low. His contract won't limit us from paying people. Not like if we were wasting $20mil on a player in 2011 or something with payroll maxed out. Which forthis reason, like you said, means we don't HAVE to trade him if we don't get what we want.