What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[reillymcshane]

 

Take that Braun Haters on the miniscule trade offers you think is Braun's value.

Yeah! Take that you Braun Haters! I don't want to talk to you no more, you empty-headed animal food trough wiper! I fart in your general direction! Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries!

[brewerfan82]

I've yet 2 pages to read but to reply to this. And among far to many others. Injury risk, production risk, age risk. Got it. How did that work for a competing team? such as the Yankees this season? They traded away Carlos BEltran. and got 2015's #4 pick Dillon Tate+....Nick Green&Eric Swanson. Beltran, a 39 yr old, 15million salary, 2.4BWAR over his 3 seasons with the Yankees .797OPS.

Yes someone who last exceeded 4BWAR was as a 31yr old got that kind of return without money being exchanged.

Mr. Braun at 32 now is approaching 5BWAR this season. And he'll be making 15million when 36. Now forget David Ortiz and share the comparison of that right there. Dillon Tate, a SP I said was untouchable start of July, Was traded for an aging, not wholly productive Carlos Beltran AND 2 others.

 

Take that Braun Haters on the miniscule trade offers you think is Braun's value.

I'm with ya on that I think Braun has value (at least if he's traded sooner than later and if the Crew kicks in some money or takes on a bad contract), however, to be fair, New York covered $2.5m of Beltran's deal in that trade leaving Texas only on the hook for $2.5m for the remainder of Beltran's contract. There's a huge gap between that $2.5m and the $76m that a team would be on the hook for with Braun.

[adambr2]

 

I've yet 2 pages to read but to reply to this. And among far to many others. Injury risk, production risk, age risk. Got it. How did that work for a competing team? such as the Yankees this season? They traded away Carlos BEltran. and got 2015's #4 pick Dillon Tate+....Nick Green&Eric Swanson. Beltran, a 39 yr old, 15million salary, 2.4BWAR over his 3 seasons with the Yankees .797OPS.

Yes someone who last exceeded 4BWAR was as a 31yr old got that kind of return without money being exchanged.

Mr. Braun at 32 now is approaching 5BWAR this season. And he'll be making 15million when 36. Now forget David Ortiz and share the comparison of that right there. Dillon Tate, a SP I said was untouchable start of July, Was traded for an aging, not wholly productive Carlos Beltran AND 2 others.

 

Take that Braun Haters on the miniscule trade offers you think is Braun's value.

 

Here we go again with the numerous comparisons, when it has been clearly demonstrated that there are plenty of comparable players on both sides of the 'decline' argument, and it's completely impossible to say with certainty which way Braun will go?

 

First of all Braun to Beltran is a complete apples to oranges comparison. Beltran is a classic 'rental' player to whom the Rangers have zero commitment to after this year. His sole purpose to the Rangers is to help them win a World Series this year, nothing further. Braun is a 4 year commitment for almost 9 figures.

 

Secondly, if you want to try to even predict whether Ryan Braun will be in the league, let alone productive at age 39, by all means go for it. And to call a guy who had an .890 OPS when he was traded 'not wholly productive' is just flat out making stuff up. Tate, by the way, was only available because he has had a pretty terrible season in A ball and has seen his stock fall since spring training.

 

Finally, there are no Braun 'haters' on this board and no one has suggested he be traded for peanuts; by definition of the thread title, this IS a discussion/debate on what his value exactly is. Do you really want to have typed that silly and childish last sentence?

[brewcrewdue80]

Sorry, you are taking this wrong. In the supposed, His value in trade can't be higher than now, and we must trade him this offseason, what good does he do remaining on the team 2+ seasons from now. When we'd be competing. Well, The Yankees are still competing and managed to trade away a 39yr old for a top 40 prospect/#4 draft pick....Higher and better potential player than what we got for Lucroy/Jeffress.

This won't be the end all trade ability for Braun.

 

I say that in meaning, if Jose De Leon or Julio Urias is not 1 of the prospects returned in trading Braun, then there's your example to holding on to Braun and trading him as his contract becomes 1-2 years instead of 4.

[adambr2]

Sorry, you are taking this wrong. In the supposed, His value in trade can't be higher than now, and we must trade him this offseason, what good does he do remaining on the team 2+ seasons from now. When we'd be competing. Well, The Yankees are still competing and managed to trade away a 39yr old for a top 40 prospect/#4 draft pick....Higher and better potential player than what we got for Lucroy/Jeffress.

This won't be the end all trade ability for Braun.

 

I say that in meaning, if Jose De Leon or Julio Urias is not 1 of the prospects returned in trading Braun, then there's your example to holding on to Braun and trading him as his contract becomes 1-2 years instead of 4.

 

But we have no idea if Braun will be a .900 OPS player in 2-3 years. None. He may have value, and it MAY be close to the same, and it also MAY be a lot less, but it's almost surely not going to be more than it is now. If Braun right now is not worth a Urias (he's not), or a De Leon (best case scenario, IMO), he's almost certainly not going to be worth one in 2 years.

 

Beltran is Beltran and Braun is Braun. His situation, like the many other comparable both ways, guarantees us nothing.

 

You're overrating Tate still by the way. He's not even on Top 100 lists anymore, and wasn't at midseason. Both Brinson and Ortiz were rated me highly when we traded Lucroy. Tate is certainly not a better return than Brinson, Ortiz, and Lindell.

 

I know how highly regarded he was coming into this season, but things change, and his stock has fallen a great deal. Again, that's why he was available for Beltran. Had he put together a great season and moved up into the top 20, he wouldn't have been.

[logan82]

One thing to consider is that many of the guys who would decline were so bad they retired before their mid 30's so the argument looking at past players is already skewed.

[reillymcshane]

All the comparisons and arguing aside, Braun was one of five Brewer position players age 24-26 in 2008.

 

Braun - Still with Milwaukee and doing well

Fielder - Out of baseball at age 32 due to neck injury.

Hardy - Been limited by injuries this past year. 2015 was bad, but has had an okay 2016 when healthy.

Weeks - Last season as a starter was age 29. Has hung around with limited success the last few years, still playing.

Hart - Retired. Done at age 30 due to knee injuries. Managed to hang around a few more years, but played poorly.

 

You can even say that 28 year old Bill Hall was washed up by the 2008 season (Fangraphs puts his WAR at 0.7, -0.5, 0.4, -1.5 and 0.0 from 2008-12). But Hall was never really part of that young core of guys that came up together. He had come a little earlier.

 

Still, it's interesting to look at things. Fielder, Hart, Hall, Weeks - all really done as good players by 30 (31 for Fielder). Hardy has done well, his glove sustaining him even when he struggled at times with his bat.

 

Specific injuries are the common theme. Fielder and Hart had injuries that really limited them. Weeks was never the same after screwing up his ankle. I think he lost a little of his speed, and it really limited him on defense (which was limited already). Even Hardy can point specifically to his back injury as limiting him at times - but he's been able to still be effective (for the most part).

 

I want to stress that I don't think this means this is Braun's fate. It was just something I noticed and thought I'd mention. This group had so much promise - tough to see guys fade.

[LouisEly]

I appreciate the research MrAllen. In looking at some of the players that B-R comps for Braun through age 31, many of them, IMO, don't appear to be on the same level as a hitter or an athlete. Walker appears to be the best comparison in terms of production and athleticism - yes, there is no official stat for "athleticism" but SBs can be a good proxy - and thus why B-R has him #1. Berkman comps well offensively, but was never the athlete that Braun is. Carlos Lee only once in his career put up an OPS equal to Braun's career OPS, and once into his 30's was not the athlete that Braun is (Lee is listed in B-R as 6'2", 270). Mondesi never put up an OPS in a season equal to Braun's career OPS, and only twice put up an OPS > .850; he simply was never the pure hitter that Braun is. IMO, the list of players who have/had Braun's hit tool and athleticism is a short list, making comparisons difficult.

 

I really do believe that athleticism - which is usually the result of better fitness training - will allow position players to be productive longer and overcome minor injuries better. I look at guys such as Braun and Joey Votto and think that they can hang around longer as position players and not have to DH because they keep themselves in better shape.

 

Holliday is certainly declining and certainly has put a lot of effort into weight training, but there is a difference between weight training and athletic training. He seemed to have a "conspicuously good physique", and also had several years that were Coors-field inflated (home OPS 1.157, road OPS .860 in 2007).

[CheezWizHed]

 

Take that Braun Haters on the miniscule trade offers you think is Braun's value.

Yeah! Take that you Braun Haters! I don't want to talk to you no more, you empty-headed animal food trough wiper! I fart in your general direction! Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries!

 

Maybe if we built a giant wooden badger...

[brewcrewdue80]

I didn't realize Tate had fallen so far. I recall him starting out something like 13IP 0ERA 20ks to like 1 or 2 BBs. I tell ya, the Yankees after the trades of Chapman, Miller, and Beltran getting Frazier, Torres, Tate, McKinney, drafting Rutherford. and having 300mil to spend whenever they want. They are going to corner the market if they continue this minor League building to supplement their FA spending.

 

Braun doesn't have to .900 OPS to get the return Beltran got. As said Beltran as a Yankee had a .797OPS for his 2.6seasons time. Upper .800s prior to trade deadline this season. Fully expect Braun to continue being around the .800 OPS mark in 3 or 4 years. He doesn't K a bunch, takes his walks and hits the ball to all fields. Obviously still possesses power. The holes as well as the common hitting concerns aren't there. Injuries do heal, If they didn't, we'd have about 60% less SPs in the League than now(random number guess) due to TJ elbows. Braun has had surgery and can continue to heal through it. If he only plays 135 games a season, what's that matter if you're a Playoff team? Braun would make it through a Playoff series with all the days off that occurs. His bat would certainly be exceptional option to have for a 7game series. I think too often, there's the thought of what adding Braun to this franchise at 4/76mil with our history, and not the thought of teams who buy to win. The Yankees since 1992 have not had a season record below .500. Boston 7times since 1992. San Fran 9 times. LA Dodgers 4 times. Milwaukee, 17 heading for 18 times.

These teams are near locks for Playoff potential and don't need to plan so much for the 162game season like us. They can already start putting together the Playoff roster. What so and so can do in a 7game stretch. Or Given 2 Games started in a series.

 

Why Boston went with Hanley Ramirez or Pablo Sandoval? Both over .900OPS in the post-season.

[JosephC]

Would this be a fair deal for both sides?

 

Dodgers get:

OF-Ryan Braun

2B-Scooter Gennett

 

Brewers get:

IF/OF-Howie Kendrick

RHP-Brandon McCarthy

OF-Alex Verdugo

RHP-Brock Stewart

RHP-Josh Sborz

RHP-Trevor Oaks

 

Kendrick has value because he can play all over, but 80% of his at-bat's this year was as a 2B or LF and acquiring both Braun and Gennett makes Kendrick an over-priced 15 million dollar piece for 2017 (Kendrick is only under contract for 2017 but is he's being paid 5 million in 2017, 5 million in 2018 and 5 million in 2019). With Kershaw, Maeda, Kazmir, Wood, Urias and De Leon, how does McCarthy, Stewart and Oaks even fit into the Dodger's future plans? All are very expendable pieces for them. Sborz is likely a middle reliever. The one really attractive piece is Verdugo, but the Dodgers would have Braun, Pederson, Toles, Thompson, Either (they are likely stuck with him) and Puig if they don't move him in another trade. And as far as prospects filling a hole left by the absence of Verdugo, Cody Bellinger might fit there (although I think he'll wind up at 1B), good chance Willie Calhoun does not stick at second base so he's in this picture, and Yusniel Diaz is another top 100 prospect that is probably one year behind Verdugo (and the Dodgers probably won't need another OF until then).

 

Personally I think that return is pretty low considering it includes Braun and Gennett and the fact that the Brewers would be picking up 35 million in what essentially would be waste dollars for the Dodgers. But I think it provides a decent baseline for how low Stearns could go. Any offer from the Dodgers that is less than that and I think the Brewers are far off better just holding onto Braun.

[MrTPlush]

If you want to make a Braun trade proposal you might as well stick Puig in it whether you like him or not. Seems like the Brewers are pretty intrigued about acquiring him.

[Roderick]

If you want to make a Braun trade proposal you might as well stick Puig in it whether you like him or not. Seems like the Brewers are pretty intrigued about acquiring him.

 

I found it very interesting that Attanasio mentioned the Dodgers by name when on TV last night. Maybe he spoke out of turn, but I assume he is more savvy than that, and I assume the trade is all but finalized at this point. Which makes it that much weirder that they couldn't get the trade done at the last hour.

[splitterpfj]

Honestly, I've never seen public discussion like this. i've never seen it around any player, much less an All-Star caliber player, who happens to be a franchise icon.

 

Braun himself, Mr Attanasio, the Brewers' TV guys, and how many writers have stated, "LA Dodgers", "Ryan Braun", "Yasiel Puig", etc, over a trade that did not happen. I wonder if they're talking about it like this in LA?

 

BTW, yes, I think you need to include Puig in any guess on a trade with the Dodgers, the question we can't answer is, is that because the Brewers really want him, or because the Dodgers really don't want him? That answer will tell us what sort of prospects to expect, when and if this actually happens.

[MrTPlush]

the question we can't answer is, is that because the Brewers really want him, or because the Dodgers really don't want him?

 

They have to have interest in Puig. Any GM would have interest in a 25 year old with two previous seasons where he put up a 5+ WAR. Anyone who isn't intrigued by a player like that quite frankly isn't very smart. Obviously some of his past issues lessen that interest, but everyone would have some sort of interest in a guy like that. You aren't going to trade for a guy like that is you are just taking him on for salary sake. The question is how much value is placed on Puig. To be honest I have no idea what the answer to that question is. Nothing has really been hinted as to what Puig's value in that trade is. On one end of the spectrum one could argue he has the value of a legit prospect(Top 100 so to speak) or one could argue he is purely a salary dump due to all the concerns surrounding him. If I had to guess he is in between those two spectrums leaning a little closer to being worth a legit prospect vs. salary dump

[splitterpfj]

The question is how much value is placed on Puig. To be honest I have no idea what the answer to that question is. Nothing has really been hinted as to what Puig's value in that trade is.

 

Precisely my point.

[adambr2]

Yeah, to me, when an owner is asked if a player will be back and says, 'I hope so,' I read that to be, 'Nope.'

 

I agree it's tough to put a value on Puig. To throw out a hypothetical, if we could get one of either Bellinger or DeLeon with Puig, McCarthy, and one of either Willie Calhoun or Yadier Alvarez, for Ryan Braun and Scooter Gennett, I'd dance in the street. Only caveat being I'd want to trade either McCarthy or Garza before next season.

[MrTPlush]

Yeah, to me, when an owner is asked if a player will be back and says, 'I hope so,' I read that to be, 'Nope.'

 

I agree it's tough to put a value on Puig. To throw out a hypothetical, if we could get one of either Bellinger or DeLeon with Puig, McCarthy, and one of either Willie Calhoun or Yadier Alvarez, for Ryan Braun and Scooter Gennett, I'd dance in the street. Only caveat being I'd want to trade either McCarthy or Garza before next season.

 

Alvarez is a no. He is a prospect on the rise and people like to compare him to Urias and some even like him more. We are just not getting that kind of prospect for Braun. That is before considering they paid $32mil to sign Alvarez. I also think Bellinger/DeLeon is wishful thinking. Sure we don't know for sure, but if we got offered a guy like that why didn't we finish the deal?

 

I think it would/will be around lesser prospects. Maybe a Calhoun/Buehler and some other guys I think of are Jordan Sheffield/Will Smith/Brock Stewart. If we got one of the first two plus one from the last group along with Puig that would be a pretty good day.

 

Not sure what to think of Attanasio's comment. I mean what is he suppose to say? "Nope I want him gone."? "Yes he will be back." only to trade him making fans angry? Weird he was so talkative on the topic honestly.

[adambr2]

I know it's their job, but sometimes I wonder why reporters even bother to ask Mark A. these questions, when they know he's got to give the customary non-answer.

 

I'd say his reaction this time makes it a near certainty, with the reaction to trading Lucroy and Braun back in June when he said the talk of trading Lucroy and Braun was just 'much ado about nothing ' and 'not actively shopping either of these guys.'

[jerichoholicninja]

I know it's their job, but sometimes I wonder why reporters even bother to ask Mark A. these questions, when they know he's got to give the customary non-answer.

 

I'd say his reaction this time makes it a near certainty, with the reaction to trading Lucroy and Braun back in June when he said the talk of trading Lucroy and Braun was just 'much ado about nothing ' and 'not actively shopping either of these guys.'

 

Anything front office people say to the media is either lying or worthless. I'll never understand why people latch onto the things they say as some sort of real insight into anything.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yeah, to me, when an owner is asked if a player will be back and says, 'I hope so,' I read that to be, 'Nope.'

 

I agree it's tough to put a value on Puig. To throw out a hypothetical, if we could get one of either Bellinger or DeLeon with Puig, McCarthy, and one of either Willie Calhoun or Yadier Alvarez, for Ryan Braun and Scooter Gennett, I'd dance in the street. Only caveat being I'd want to trade either McCarthy or Garza before next season.

 

Alvarez is a no. He is a prospect on the rise and people like to compare him to Urias and some even like him more. We are just not getting that kind of prospect for Braun. That is before considering they paid $32mil to sign Alvarez. I also think Bellinger/DeLeon is wishful thinking. Sure we don't know for sure, but if we got offered a guy like that why didn't we finish the deal?

 

I'm sure a guy like that was not offered, but that doesn't mean a Deleon wouldn't be offered in the off-season when there's more time to get something like this done. It could involve Puig going to a 3rd team. It could involve the Brewers offering someone along with Braun. Maybe the Brewers need to take on McCarthy.

 

Just lots of moving parts, so I can see how a Braun for Deleon deal didn't work now, but it still could.

[brewcrewdue80]

Yeah, to me, when an owner is asked if a player will be back and says, 'I hope so,' I read that to be, 'Nope.'

 

I agree it's tough to put a value on Puig. To throw out a hypothetical, if we could get one of either Bellinger or DeLeon with Puig, McCarthy, and one of either Willie Calhoun or Yadier Alvarez, for Ryan Braun and Scooter Gennett, I'd dance in the street. Only caveat being I'd want to trade either McCarthy or Garza before next season.

 

Alvarez is a no. He is a prospect on the rise and people like to compare him to Urias and some even like him more. We are just not getting that kind of prospect for Braun. That is before considering they paid $32mil to sign Alvarez. I also think Bellinger/DeLeon is wishful thinking. Sure we don't know for sure, but if we got offered a guy like that why didn't we finish the deal?

 

I think it would/will be around lesser prospects. Maybe a Calhoun/Buehler and some other guys I think of are Jordan Sheffield/Will Smith/Brock Stewart. If we got one of the first two plus one from the last group along with Puig that would be a pretty good day.

 

Not sure what to think of Attanasio's comment. I mean what is he suppose to say? "Nope I want him gone."? "Yes he will be back." only to trade him making fans angry? Weird he was so talkative on the topic honestly.

 

Or why the deal wasn't done in time is The Brewers asked for 1 of the 3 and the Dodgers balked at the finish line. It takes both teams to accept a trade offer and as has been said a long time, Stearns asking price was "too Much" for Lucroy or any trade pieces the Brewers had recently. Just because the deal didn't happen doesn't mean it was the Brewers who made the deal not happen. Maybe a Walker Buehler or Josh SBorz was agreed upon and the List of those 3, 1 to be included was the Dodgers who couldn't decide whom to part with.

 

Keep in mind, near the deadline, the Dodgers were without Rich Hill and Scott Kazmir, who I believe had his return delayed right about then. Making a SP like De Leon, a necessary backup option.

[MrTPlush]

I am really getting at the whole "The deal was almost done" and "All but a done deal he is traded in the offseason". If these statements are true a major/elite prospect wasn't in play because the Brewers wouldn't lose out on a DeLeon while arguing over a lesser piece. All signs point to a deal nearly being reached without an elite prospect in play. I don't think are suddenly going to change that and a DeLeon type guy appears in talks. I think it is far fetched much like Mendez being the PTBNL in the Lucroy trade. It is possible, but most likely not.

[brewers888]

I have very strong feelings on this whole Braun situation so here goes. I just don't get why the majority of fans are not only willing but actually excited at the thought of trading Ryan Braun who is one of the three best hitters in team history in what would pretty much amount to a salary dump. It makes no sense to me to trade a franchise icon for the likes of a malcontent in Puig, a salary dump who is worthless in McCarthy and what will probably be one or two mediocre at best prospects.

 

If some team offers the Brewers elite young talent in return I can understand a Braun trade although I am still against it. With this team having pretty much no players other than Braun and Garza making big money I just don't see why this type of trade would make any sense. The thought of taking on a contract like McCarthy from the Dodgers of all teams to make it more palatable for them to fit Braun into their unlimited budget upsets me and should really bother more fans.

 

It really comes down to this for me; in order to trade Braun the Brewers need to get elite and I stress elite prospects in return or there should be no deal. We already have tons of depth so acquiring some teams 5-15 rated prospects just doesn't do enough for this franchise. If we aren't going to get top young talent we should just let Braun retire in a Brewers uniform like Robin Yount did before him.

[MrTPlush]

Guess this guy is on the Puig-wagon.

 

http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2016/09/23/203010790/a-brewers-fan-in-a-custom-yasiel-puig-jersey-threw-a-pitch-and-told-his-story?partnerId=as_mlb_20160924_66242756&adbid=1245076542190649&adbpl=fb&adbpr=196554717042842