What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[TigerUppercut]

It's ok to admit you are just a Puig hater. You act like he just had one good season. After his 5 WAR rookie season he had a 5 WAR second season.

 

And you're a Braun Hater when you ignore his current performance(better than Puig, Ever) due to age and contract. Braun is putting up numbers 5%? Less than the numbers he won MVP with. Yet, 19million a season is too much for that kind of production. Puig is posting numbers the last two seasons 15-20% worse than his 104game-432PA rookie stats. But because of him only turning 26 for all of next season, He's to immediately return to that kind of performance, and exceed it(since he has higher ceiling than Braun)

 

So yeah, I am a hater he doesn't bring anything to the club for me. It's Kirk N-itis. He'll take away games from players who have a future to this organization and higher ceilings than Puig.

 

What's your answer when Puig bats .700ish OPS in the OF the next 2 seasons? What value are you giving him after 2017 and by 2018 trade deadline?

 

To be clear, I highly doubt you'll find a single talent evaluator in all of baseball that will tell you the Brewers have a single position prospect with a higher absolute ceiling than Puig. There are alot of "ifs," but "ifs" are what ceiling is all about anyway. Puig's absolute ceiling is enormous.

[brewcrewdue80]

It's ok to admit you are just a Puig hater. You act like he just had one good season. After his 5 WAR rookie season he had a 5 WAR second season.

 

And you're a Braun Hater when you ignore his current performance(better than Puig, Ever) due to age and contract. Braun is putting up numbers 5%? Less than the numbers he won MVP with. Yet, 19million a season is too much for that kind of production. Puig is posting numbers the last two seasons 15-20% worse than his 104game-432PA rookie stats. But because of him only turning 26 for all of next season, He's to immediately return to that kind of performance, and exceed it(since he has higher ceiling than Braun)

 

So yeah, I am a hater he doesn't bring anything to the club for me. It's Kirk N-itis. He'll take away games from players who have a future to this organization and higher ceilings than Puig.

 

What's your answer when Puig bats .700ish OPS in the OF the next 2 seasons? What value are you giving him after 2017 and by 2018 trade deadline?

 

To be clear, I highly doubt you'll find a single talent evaluator in all of baseball that will tell you the Brewers have a single position prospect with a higher absolute ceiling than Puig. There are alot of "ifs," but "ifs" are what ceiling is all about anyway. Puig's absolute ceiling is enormous.

 

And yet all he's done is regressed since rookie season. And the Brewers would only have 250? games to see that ceiling and cash in on the rewards for it? Because him reaching that ceiling and playing out that contract leaves the Brewers with nothing but a comp that is to be determined.

 

Again, it goes back to what your Ceiling numbers represent/would be?

Taking his best season of .319/.390/534/.925 add 75% to his counting stats and he's hitting 36doubles, 3triples, 33HRs. 213hits. Which isn't beyond what I could say is Isan Diaz's ceiling. Harrison, Orimoloye, Lara and Gatewood have that kind of ceiling. Trent Clark I don't believe has the HR potential of 30+ but certainly the .300+ BA. And with Puig Still awaiting his first 20HR season I can't say 33 is in his reach 4 of 6 seasons to find out 56total or 14 per season has been his result.

So again, What is this ceiling of possibility you are hoping for? Time is running out on Puig's contract to see it.

[JohnBriggs12]

If you believe Braun will be a .900+ OPS guy for the next 3-4 seasons, is this even a good trade? Those guys don't grow on trees. I understand that you get players back for the future but if you're not getting back a top end prospect like DeLeon, is this even worth it?

 

I do believe Braun will be .900 OPS guy the next couple seasons and an .850 OPS the two seasons after that. He'll need the occasional day off and that diminishes his impact somewhat but I just don't understand the thinking that trading him somehow speeds up the rebuild. Taking his presence out of the lineup sets back the rebuild. This isn't the Lucroy situation. Lucroy's value beyond 2017 was going to be the draft pick compensation they'd receive. Still and all I do wonder what this team would have looked like with Braun, Lucroy, and Davis in the middle of the lineup heading into 2017 with guys like Villar, Perez, Broxton, Carter around them. That's a wild card contender with average pitching.

[MrTPlush]

You do realize that Puig isn't the only piece of this trade right? Yasiel Puig isn't perfect, but neither is Ryan Braun. They both have big concerns that could really put a damper on their production. We don't even know what Puig is valued at in this phantom trade. He could be just a small piece of the puzzle for all we know.

 

You are pretty concerned about Puig becoming a free agent leaving us with just a comp pick, but why not so concerned about Braun? He is controlled a grand one extra year and if we don't compete in that year not trading Braun was a huge waste leaving us with nothing. Wouldn't it be lovely to waste $80mil and get nothing out of it except Braun around a few more years? Also why are you not concerned about Braun's age or his lengthy injury history?

 

Lastly of course we can pretend and think Lara/Gatewood/etc. have a ceiling that of Puig's, but what are their chances of hitting that ceiling? 1 in a million? Difference is Puig has shown his ceiling over two years when he was a 10 WAR player in that time span. Someone like Gilbert Lara has a grand 3 HRs in 475 at-bats.

 

One can not like Puig and not support a trade for him, fine. Don't look at it from only one angle though. There is a lot of reasons to trade for Puig and that is exactly why Stearns was considering it.

[MrTPlush]

If you believe Braun will be a .900+ OPS guy for the next 3-4 seasons, is this even a good trade? Those guys don't grow on trees. I understand that you get players back for the future but if you're not getting back a top end prospect like DeLeon, is this even worth it?

 

I just don't understand the thinking that trading him somehow speeds up the rebuild. Taking his presence out of the lineup sets back the rebuild.

 

Yah I certainly don't see this speeding up the rebuild by any means. I don't know if it sets us back, but I can't see it speeding up the rebuild. Then again who said the goal was to speed up the rebuild. It would be a move to make the team better in the long run would be the thinking. Trade a pricey/old player for younger and/or more controllable players. Right now you are lucky if we compete one year that Braun is still here. Maybe two if you are feeling really good about things. Keeping around Braun for $80 to hopefully get one useful year out of him? Questionable.

[JosephC]

Any concern that in the last two years Puig has been DL'ed with hamstring injuries 3 different times? Missed over half the season last year and probably would have missed about 25 games this year even if his performance had kept him in the starting lineup. Apparently he has a shoulder problem now but I doubt if that's much of an issue at all because he is healthy enough to start every time a lefty goes to the mound for the opposition.

[brewmann04]

I would do the trade and grab some pitching prospects, but I would then move Puig for a top Pitching prospect.

[pacopete4]

I would do the trade and grab some pitching prospects, but I would then move Puig for a top Pitching prospect.

 

Don't you think that if this was possible, the Dodgers would have done it?

[MrTPlush]

Any concern that in the last two years Puig has been DL'ed with hamstring injuries 3 different times? Missed over half the season last year and probably would have missed about 25 games this year even if his performance had kept him in the starting lineup. Apparently he has a shoulder problem now but I doubt if that's much of an issue at all because he is healthy enough to start every time a lefty goes to the mound for the opposition.

 

Injury issues are there, but then again Braun isn't much better in that regard. With Puig I am more concerned about the injuries versus the attitude. Good chance you can fix the later, but the former has really effected his performance and not so simple to fix.

[adambr2]

If you believe Braun will be a .900+ OPS guy for the next 3-4 seasons, is this even a good trade? Those guys don't grow on trees. I understand that you get players back for the future but if you're not getting back a top end prospect like DeLeon, is this even worth it?

 

I do believe Braun will be .900 OPS guy the next couple seasons and an .850 OPS the two seasons after that. He'll need the occasional day off and that diminishes his impact somewhat but I just don't understand the thinking that trading him somehow speeds up the rebuild. Taking his presence out of the lineup sets back the rebuild. This isn't the Lucroy situation. Lucroy's value beyond 2017 was going to be the draft pick compensation they'd receive. Still and all I do wonder what this team would have looked like with Braun, Lucroy, and Davis in the middle of the lineup heading into 2017 with guys like Villar, Perez, Broxton, Carter around them. That's a wild card contender with average pitching.

 

Sounds basically like exactly the strategy we were trying to employ from 2012-early 2015.

 

Also, in my opinion the purpose of trading Braun is not to accelerate the rebuild. I still say we're looking at 2019, whether Braun is traded or not.

 

The purpose is to continually build a lasting foundation for the future. I don't think the end goal here is to open a window of contention and have a few years with a shot. In my opinion under Stearns trade like this can be expected even WHEN we are contending.

[gregmag]

I got to thinking about the 2005 draft, all the infielders at the top, and how they've panned out. This didn't seem to be worth its own thread, so I'm sticking it here. Back of the napkin math, ESPN WAR, with all the cautions both of those things entail. I stuck the three significant OFs in here as well. As of now:

 

Braun 43.5 WAR

Tulowitzki 42.2

McCutchen 37.1

Zimmerman 32.4

Gordon 31.5

Ellsbury 27.9

Upton 24.6

Bruce 14.

 

That seems, as a class, shockingly good, though I haven't compared other classes so who knows. Since draft day I've thought of Braun, Tulo, Zimmerman, and Gordon together. It seems kind of amazing how well they've all done, and how relatively closely clustered they all are. We wouldn't have gone wrong with any of them, though we have to be happy about how we made out.

 

Now it will be interesting to see which of these guys holds his value best through his 30s. Braun is looking strong right now, though most of these players look like they're capable of maintaining substantial value.

[brewcrewdue80]

You do realize that Puig isn't the only piece of this trade right? Yasiel Puig isn't perfect, but neither is Ryan Braun. They both have big concerns that could really put a damper on their production. We don't even know what Puig is valued at in this phantom trade. He could be just a small piece of the puzzle for all we know.

 

You are pretty concerned about Puig becoming a free agent leaving us with just a comp pick, but why not so concerned about Braun? He is controlled a grand one extra year and if we don't compete in that year not trading Braun was a huge waste leaving us with nothing. Wouldn't it be lovely to waste $80mil and get nothing out of it except Braun around a few more years? Also why are you not concerned about Braun's age or his lengthy injury history?

 

Lastly of course we can pretend and think Lara/Gatewood/etc. have a ceiling that of Puig's, but what are their chances of hitting that ceiling? 1 in a million? Difference is Puig has shown his ceiling over two years when he was a 10 WAR player in that time span. Someone like Gilbert Lara has a grand 3 HRs in 475 at-bats.

 

One can not like Puig and not support a trade for him, fine. Don't look at it from only one angle though. There is a lot of reasons to trade for Puig and that is exactly why Stearns was considering it.

 

Puig=2years of team control. Braun=4years+1option year of team control. Yes I'd take Braun's 4/80 over Puig's 2/16.45 contract and control. There's the deferred payments and already the payment of Braun's signing bonus which for Milwaukee means less than 4/80 impact. The contract on Braun lessens after two seasons so if he production reduces even to an .800 OPS vs .900 he's not grossly making too much money for the production. 4years/80 for other teams, sure can be a risk, but in 2seasons 2/34million isn't as bad a risk should you convince Braun to accept a trade. Maybe we're not as close to contending(Mets-itis of TJs) and Braun in twilight of career seeks out a contender his last 2 seasons+ potential option season. So while he'll have 10-5 rights, he's open to a trade to a contender. Whatever happens, after 2018 Braun can still be traded. by the end of 2018 Puig will become a FA. I put a higher value on what should come back for Braun in trade than the hope and praying value of what Puig can bring back in trade within 250games as a Brewer. Brandon McCarthy's inclusion is of salary swapping. This is a SP with 1 30+GS season and a 4.12 Career ERA/4.05Fip after 11seasons and turning 33. Another 2season team control who doesn't add to the rebuild unless we luck in to Rich Hill type of comeback year, something we're already playing on with Matt Garza.

Now add 2prospects and if it's not up there in ceiling like Jose De Leon/Urias what's the point on doing this trade? By taking on 40mil for Puig/McCarthy you're saving 34million overall for '19 and '20. While losing a .900 OPS bat and gaining nothing approaching that?

 

 

 

I read on the Yadier Alvarez kind of return. How does that make sense? 32million cost to have him in your system. They have to stick with him while passing on Urias or De Leon. They've already lost a bunch on Hector Olivera's mistake signing. Seeing as Alvarez is producing in the minors, I'd have to see him as untouchable. You'd be responsible for 95million of 2 signings who never took the field in Dodger uniforms.

 

After the Urias/DeLeon/Alvarez trio of SP prospects, you are reducing a lot of ceiling on the SP prospects. If we're not getting one of 3, then Cody Bellinger had better be in play with one of those lower SP prospects being the one you couldn't agree upon final hour. Brock Stewart had great Minor numbers, 4HRs allowed in 121IP. He's at 7!HRs in 27IP at the Major level. .3HR/9 to 3HR/9 ouch. You wonder on the Park or League factor suddenly. But his Minor numbers are suspect to translate to high ceiling/TOR starter. Just losing appeal on a trade without inclusion of one of top 4 prospects in Dodgers organization...counting Urias as 1 of those 4.

[adambr2]

Interesting that Spotrac lists Puig as a free agent in 2020 after a 2019 arbitration year, rotoworld just says he's a FA in 2019.

[adambr2]

You do realize that Puig isn't the only piece of this trade right? Yasiel Puig isn't perfect, but neither is Ryan Braun. They both have big concerns that could really put a damper on their production. We don't even know what Puig is valued at in this phantom trade. He could be just a small piece of the puzzle for all we know.

 

You are pretty concerned about Puig becoming a free agent leaving us with just a comp pick, but why not so concerned about Braun? He is controlled a grand one extra year and if we don't compete in that year not trading Braun was a huge waste leaving us with nothing. Wouldn't it be lovely to waste $80mil and get nothing out of it except Braun around a few more years? Also why are you not concerned about Braun's age or his lengthy injury history?

 

Lastly of course we can pretend and think Lara/Gatewood/etc. have a ceiling that of Puig's, but what are their chances of hitting that ceiling? 1 in a million? Difference is Puig has shown his ceiling over two years when he was a 10 WAR player in that time span. Someone like Gilbert Lara has a grand 3 HRs in 475 at-bats.

 

One can not like Puig and not support a trade for him, fine. Don't look at it from only one angle though. There is a lot of reasons to trade for Puig and that is exactly why Stearns was considering it.

 

Puig=2years of team control. Braun=4years+1option year of team control. Yes I'd take Braun's 4/80 over Puig's 2/16.45 contract and control. There's the deferred payments and already the payment of Braun's signing bonus which for Milwaukee means less than 4/80 impact. The contract on Braun lessens after two seasons so if he production reduces even to an .800 OPS vs .900 he's not grossly making too much money for the production. 4years/80 for other teams, sure can be a risk, but in 2seasons 2/34million isn't as bad a risk should you convince Braun to accept a trade. Maybe we're not as close to contending(Mets-itis of TJs) and Braun in twilight of career seeks out a contender his last 2 seasons+ potential option season. So while he'll have 10-5 rights, he's open to a trade to a contender. Whatever happens, after 2018 Braun can still be traded.

 

If you're going to hold onto Braun for 2 more years, you might as well hold onto him for 4 and hope for the best. If he's still producing, by then we should be close to contention and want to keep him anyway. If he's not, he won't be worth nearly as much anyway.

 

By waiting 2 more years on Braun, you're risking injury, decline, and Braun gaining more leverage through 10/5 rights. Doesn't make much sense to me. I have a hard time seeing his value in the next 4 years being much if any higher than it is now, but I could see it getting a lot, lot lower.

[MrTPlush]

I read on the Yadier Alvarez kind of return. How does that make sense? 32million cost to have him in your system. They have to stick with him while passing on Urias or De Leon. They've already lost a bunch on Hector Olivera's mistake signing. Seeing as Alvarez is producing in the minors, I'd have to see him as untouchable. You'd be responsible for 95million of 2 signings who never took the field in Dodger uniforms.

 

Are you referring to when I mentioned Alvarez? When I was speaking of Alvarez I was referring to taking the money saved on Braun and getting a Alvarez type prospect. Just showing one of the many ways that money saved can help the ball club. As for the Dodgers actually tading Alvarez I agree not happening because of the money commitment.

 

People seem to forget you can do a lot with the 40mil or whatever we would be saving. One could acquire quite a few promising prospects with that.

[MrTPlush]

Interesting that Spotrac lists Puig as a free agent in 2020 after a 2019 arbitration year, rotoworld just says he's a FA in 2019.

 

From everything I have read he is arbitration eligible for the 2019 season. So he is controlled for three more season not two.

[JosephC]

I don't know if it's still a rule or not, but it used to be if a player was optioned to the minors for less than 20 days then they still would receive credit for a full year of service time. From what I can tell Puig was optioned out early in August and the total was greater than 20 days, so I'd estimate he'd be credited with approximately 5/6'ths of a season this year. His first game played was June 3, 2013 so credit him with roughly 2/3'rds of a season for 2013.

 

Estimated service time:

2013 = 0.67

2014 = 1.00

2015 = 1.00

2016 = 0.83

Approximate service time at end of season should be 3.5 years.

 

So if I have it figured correctly, he's under team control for 2017, 2018 and 2019. Since his contract runs two season, he'd be arbitration eligible in 2019.

 

There is also a clause in Puig's contract that he can void the deal and opt for arbitration. Obviously that would be unlikely consider the type of year he's had.

 

I don't claim to be an expert in service time rules, so if someone corrects me then they are probably correct and I am wrong.

[MrTPlush]

I don't claim to be an expert in service time rules, so if someone corrects me then they are probably correct and I am wrong.

 

You are correct from what I have read.. Before they optioned him it was well talked about in the Dodgers forums/blogs sphere that they could gain an extra year...for themselves or an eventual trade. I think he can opt out for arbitration at any point, but that does matter in all honesty. Actually I would love for him to be traded here and do that since it means he is hitting well enough to get a raise.

[brewmann04]

I would do the trade and grab some pitching prospects, but I would then move Puig for a top Pitching prospect.

 

Don't you think that if this was possible, the Dodgers would have done it?

 

They might have if they found a RH Power bat like Braun

[AdvantageSchneider]

http://deadspin.com/madison-bumgarner-and-yasiel-puig-got-into-1786834171

 

Saw this from Puig. I just don't know about him. Maybe get him out of the NL West, or LA. On the other hand maybe he would just end up getting into it with the cardinals and/or the pirates.

[AdvantageSchneider]

You do realize that Puig isn't the only piece of this trade right? Yasiel Puig isn't perfect, but neither is Ryan Braun. They both have big concerns that could really put a damper on their production. We don't even know what Puig is valued at in this phantom trade. He could be just a small piece of the puzzle for all we know.

 

You are pretty concerned about Puig becoming a free agent leaving us with just a comp pick, but why not so concerned about Braun? He is controlled a grand one extra year and if we don't compete in that year not trading Braun was a huge waste leaving us with nothing. Wouldn't it be lovely to waste $80mil and get nothing out of it except Braun around a few more years? Also why are you not concerned about Braun's age or his lengthy injury history?

 

Lastly of course we can pretend and think Lara/Gatewood/etc. have a ceiling that of Puig's, but what are their chances of hitting that ceiling? 1 in a million? Difference is Puig has shown his ceiling over two years when he was a 10 WAR player in that time span. Someone like Gilbert Lara has a grand 3 HRs in 475 at-bats.

 

One can not like Puig and not support a trade for him, fine. Don't look at it from only one angle though. There is a lot of reasons to trade for Puig and that is exactly why Stearns was considering it.

 

Puig=2years of team control. Braun=4years+1option year of team control. Yes I'd take Braun's 4/80 over Puig's 2/16.45 contract and control. There's the deferred payments and already the payment of Braun's signing bonus which for Milwaukee means less than 4/80 impact. The contract on Braun lessens after two seasons so if he production reduces even to an .800 OPS vs .900 he's not grossly making too much money for the production. 4years/80 for other teams, sure can be a risk, but in 2seasons 2/34million isn't as bad a risk should you convince Braun to accept a trade. Maybe we're not as close to contending(Mets-itis of TJs) and Braun in twilight of career seeks out a contender his last 2 seasons+ potential option season. So while he'll have 10-5 rights, he's open to a trade to a contender. Whatever happens, after 2018 Braun can still be traded.

 

If you're going to hold onto Braun for 2 more years, you might as well hold onto him for 4 and hope for the best. If he's still producing, by then we should be close to contention and want to keep him anyway. If he's not, he won't be worth nearly as much anyway.

 

By waiting 2 more years on Braun, you're risking injury, decline, and Braun gaining more leverage through 10/5 rights. Doesn't make much sense to me. I have a hard time seeing his value in the next 4 years being much if any higher than it is now, but I could see it getting a lot, lot lower.

 

There was an article in fangraphs earlier in the year, I want to say April or May, where basically every team that traded for an aging player with a big contract has regreted it with the exception of Detroit and Ian Kinsler. It was an ugly list. Carl Crawford, Prince(this was pre-career ending injury) Matt Kemp, I forget the rest.

 

Even "healthy" this year you are only getting 140 games out of him. Which is great, but it's not like you should expect to get 150 or even 145 out of him next year. This could be the high water mark. Even if he plays like this the next two year, so what? We're not going anywhere. By the time we're ready to win, those last two years of his contract we will be wishng we would have traded him. By then it will be a salary dump.

[LouisEly]

For those expecting Braun to significantly decline in the next 2-3 years, David Ortiz says hello. Despite the shifts employed on him, Ortiz still leads the league in doubles at age 40. David Ortiz has also played in over 146 games in a season only once since his age 30 season - he needs a few days off every year as well. I don't think Boston regrets his contract one iota.

 

Obviously the advantage Ortiz has is being a DH. That's not an option unless the Angels magically come up with something resembling prospects. I've said before that I can easily see the Red Sox and Yankees putting on the dog-and-pony show for Braun trying to get him to remove them from his no-trade list.

 

Braun's career road OPS is .899 and at home is .926 - he's not inflating his stats at home. Pure hitters - such as Ortiz and Braun - are pure hitters.

[MKE81]

Since when have Carl Crawford, Ian Kinsler, Matt Kemp and similar ever been in the same category of Braun? Braun has produced elite numbers every season in his career minus the injury/suspension years. None of those others players come close to his offensive talent and longevity. Thats why Braun will never fall off a cliff offensively during his contract. The same people who see him declining in 2-3 years are the same people who evaluate solely through Fangraphs articles and box scores. The same people who we're begging he be traded as a salary dump because he had surgery in the off-season and other minor injuries preventing him from playing 155 games. I'll take Braun and 140 games over 95% of the MLB and 155-162 games

[adambr2]

Since when have Carl Crawford, Ian Kinsler, Matt Kemp and similar ever been in the same category of Braun? Braun has produced elite numbers every season in his career minus the injury/suspension years. None of those others players come close to his offensive talent and longevity. Thats why Braun will never fall off a cliff offensively during his contract. The same people who see him declining in 2-3 years are the same people who evaluate solely through Fangraphs articles and box scores. The same people who we're begging he be traded as a salary dump because he had surgery in the off-season and other minor injuries preventing him from playing 155 games. I'll take Braun and 140 games over 95% of the MLB and 155-162 games

 

There are plenty of the best hitters who have continued to hit at an elite level well into their 30s. There's also many that didn't, and nothing can be guaranteed by the end of Braun's contract. I agree I don't think he'll fall off a cliff, though some degree of decline is likely, but it's not impossible.

[MrTPlush]

Louis even you know that is a ridiculous comparison. You mentioned why, but sort of brushed it off as no big deal. Ortiz is a DH and an extreme outlier. Such examples just hurt the point you are trying to make. No one is saying Braun will 100% decline. However I'm not going to bet he won't.