What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[MrTPlush]

Gennett and two lottery ticket type players are not going to convince the Dodgers or any team for that matter include an elite prospect. Trading lots of garbage doesn't get you quality. Quality for Quality. Put Thornburg or Villar in a deal and suddenly you can start talking about making a return increase.

[splitterpfj]

Guys, please use prospect lists as a fantastic guideline, but not as gospel.

 

Brandon Woodruff, in 20 AA starts, struck out 124 batters, while walking 30 - a four to one ratio! He had an ERA of 3.01, a WHIP of 1.04, and he allowed 4 home runs, while holding opponents to a .211 batting average. The man just kicked the crap out of the AA level, throwing mid to high 90s.

 

That is not a lottery ticket, that is not a borderline anything - that is an outstanding pitching prospect.

 

Read stats, and then ask yourself this - would you want your team to trade for Brandon Woodruff, Kodi Medeiros, Devin Williams, or Jorge Lopez right now?

 

That's a landslide for Woodruff, yet, just within the Brewers' system, somebody thought he was the #25 prospect. That's ridiculous.

 

Translate that to the Dodgers - go read the stats on Yadier Alvarez, and tell me you'd be upset if the Brewers got him as the top prospect in a Braun trade - I sure wouldn't be.

 

Look at the pitchers who are ranked numbers 14-17 for the Dodgers right now, and tell me which ones you don't think the Brewers could use.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=la

[pacopete4]

My thinking was Scooter replaces Utley and they really don't lose much, if anything at all there. But what they gain is another $6-8 million in cap space. This might be helpful to them and interest them going down the road of trying to sign their younger players.

 

I didn't mean to offend the Woodruff people by labeling him as a lottery ticket. Just that he would be a guy that has had a tremendous year in our system that the Dodgers might see of some real value there.

 

I'm just not on board with this deal, at all, if it doesn't include one of their top prospect guys. If it doesn't I'd walk away from the table and enjoy having a high-caliber player in Braun and let the Dodgers play the crappy free agent market.

[TheCrew07]

Translate that to the Dodgers - go read the stats on Yadier Alvarez, and tell me you'd be upset if the Brewers got him as the top prospect in a Braun trade - I sure wouldn't be.

 

Look at the pitchers who are ranked numbers 14-17 for the Dodgers right now, and tell me which ones you don't think the Brewers could use.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=la

 

I agreed with everything you said until down to here.

 

Alvarez is a control project along the same lines as Diplan, he's around the plate, has exciting raw tools, but I wasn't for going after him in the International market as I didn't like him as strike thrower at MLB, and I'm still unconvinced. He had a nice 2016 season though, but if placed aggressively for 2017 I think he runs into a bit of a wall similar to Diplan until he makes improvement location wise. I do believe that Alvarez has superior talent to Diplan, but that doesn't mean he's a top of the rotation candidate. I mention this quite a bit but there are so few pitchers who can be truly effectively wild and get outs at the MLB level, it takes someone with extreme talent like Edwin Jackson to make that work, to miss spots by feet instead of inches and still get outs, but on the whole I think his career has been disappointing given his arm and stuff. In career year a guy like that pitches like a top of the rotation piece, but most of the time he's floating in the 3-5 range.

 

As for the 14-17 guys, could the Brewers use more pitching depth? Sure. I guess this really comes down to the expectation.

 

Brock Stewart is a project... great stats but the stuff doesn't match up with production. He can certainly continue to improve his stuff since he's new to being a full time pitcher, and his velocity could also improve, but that's quite a few "ifs" for a 24 year old. I'd feel differently if he were 21.

 

Josh Sborz - Not a fan of his mechanics, doesn't really have a plus pitch, he's another project but is 22 so has more time on his side.

 

Imani Abdullah - prototypical frame, good athlete, inconsistent velocity, doesn't have a plus pitch but plenty of time just being 19.

 

Chase De Jong - Nothing sexy but gets decent results, he's 22.

 

 

So sure all those guys could have MLB value, but what's the goal here? Just depth? Quality depth? Top of the rotation potential?

 

Puig doesn't really excite me, sure he's talented, but is trending the opposite way of what you'd hope for a young player. I realize he's been injured and demoted with his PAs dropping off significantly the last 2 seasons. Having to take McCarthy's salary... well whatever, but he's not a net + over we already have, so if we're trading with the Dodgers and giving up the best player on the team, regardless of salary, I'd want De Leon back, a pitcher with a reasonable shot at being a #2. Otherwise we're just helping the rich get richer by helping the Dodgers clear salary by taking a pitcher they don't need, swapping a much more consistently productive albeit older OF and at least a neutral clubhouse guy, taking on salary when cost really isn't an issue for them in the first place, and helping Braun move back home... but without a great prospect where's the significant upside for the Brewers?

 

Sure Puig could bounce back and match Braun's production, but how realistic is that? What are the legitimate best case odds for that scenario? I see quite a bit of wishful thinking, but if Puig is a centerpiece then for me personally, forget it. We won't get Urias so if not De Leon then I'd rather hang onto Braun and move forward as best we can at a later date.

 

When it comes to trades I'm assessing pitchers the same way I would for a 1st round pick, I want the marquee pitcher to have a legitimate chance of being a #2, then after that I don't care who or far they go down into the low minors for a player like Abdullah. I'd take talent and projection over production after that first guy, but if production is all we can get, that's fine if the first player has a high enough ceiling.

 

Trading gives Milwaukee the opportunity to address a position of weakness from one of relative strength and at some point we have to start looking at the top of the rotation. I'm also very high on Luis Ortiz, but he needs to miss more bats or he's not going reach his potential either, if we want 2 legit #2s at MLB then we'd better have 4 pitchers with that potential in the pipeline. I'm fully aware that trading for the best talent available is a good rule of thumb but at the same time do we really need to acquire more OF prospects, especially when the Brewers haven't been so good acquiring top of the rotation pitching through the draft? If you aren't drafting it and aren't able to to afford it in FA, then you'd better trade for it.

[sveumrules]

Mendez was right there.

 

Mendez was added to the 40 man roster before the season ended so I don't believe he was eligible to be the PTBNL.

 

Doesn't matter. Cordell isn't even in the same dimension as Brinson/Ortiz. Being wrong is fine, but those reports about the PTBNL were a load of BS and not even close.

 

What reports exactly? Rosenthal was quoted as saying "a significant piece, perhaps along the lines of the other two players in the trade [brinson and Ortiz]." Key word here is perhaps. As we know there were no prospects along the lines of Brinson/Ortiz left in the TEX system who were eligible to be the PTBNL so that clearly was not going to be the case.

 

The quote I found from Stearns was "The player to be named later will also be a player we like a lot who will contribute to our system." Nowhere does he say that the PTBNL will be similar to Brinson/Ortiz.

[splitterpfj]

Crew07, I'm not thrilled with Puig either, I'm hoping he's more, "take him", than, "get him" in the deal, but I don't know if that's the case.

 

De Leon is the guy I want, for sure, but I think Alvarez is going to be a big deal. I don't like control projects, the same way I don't like position players whose weakest link is the hit tool - pitchers without command and hitters who can't hit are the stuff of fired coaches.

 

I really believe Alvarez will make it, he's definitely riskier right now than De Leon, but I believe in him.

 

Brock Stewart is the guy I want from the second group, essentially for the reason you gave - he's putting up outstanding numbers, and he could still get better.

 

I want, "quality depth" in pitching throghout the system, meaning, as many guys who have a real chance at being an MLB starting pitcher as possible. Yes, I want as many of them to have a "#2 ceiling", and yes, this may be a chance to bring one into the system.

 

Fill the system with #2 and #3 starters, get the best pitcher you can get, and sort out the lefty/righty stuff later, and let the results tell you who moves to the bullpen.

[JosephC]

If the Brewers and Dodgers can't agree on Puig's value, then Gennett might be a reasonable piece to send to LA if the Dodgers instead want the Brewers to take on Howie Kendrick's salary. Not really sure how the Dodgers would value Kendrick? He sure is getting a lot more playing time than Puig currently. Kendrick's ability to play all over the field adds to his value. On the flip side he is 33, definitely not a middle-of-the-order hitter and while consistent with the bat he's at the point in his career where his numbers figure to start declining. He is also only under team control through 2017.

 

Rumors had the Brewer taking on both Puig and McCarthy, who combined have 34 million in salary guaranteed after this season. Kendrick + McCarthy have 35 million guaranteed after this season (Kendrick is only under contract for 2017 but gets 5 million dollar payments in 2017, 2018 and 2019), so if the Dodgers are looking at Braun's contract and want the Brewers to pick up ~40% of it then substituting Kendrick for Puig accomplishes that.

 

It would really bump up the prospect return considering the Brewers would be losing 2 years of service time and a possible middle-of-the-order bat potential in a Kendrick/Puig substitution while also including Gennett in the deal.

[MadThinker88]

I want, "quality depth" in pitching throghout the system, meaning, as many guys who have a real chance at being an MLB starting pitcher as possible. Yes, I want as many of them to have a "#2 ceiling", and yes, this may be a chance to bring one into the system.

 

Fill the system with #2 and #3 starters, get the best pitcher you can get, and sort out the lefty/righty stuff later, and let the results tell you who moves to the bullpen.

 

I agree with your overall thinking.

It is also why I keep shaking my head over the PTBNL selection from Texas and struggle with who was selected. When you have a chance to get pitching, take it..

[pacopete4]

Take Puig, McCarthy and Kendrick back. Ship Scooter and Braun and get better prospects. Flip Kendrick to someone for another project and hopefully McCarthy if he can show he's healthy.

[reillymcshane]

I think Puig has value, and he could regain more - but I'm skeptical. He's shown little real dedication to getting better - coming to camp out of shape, being late for practice, etc. He's a guy that I would worry isn't dedicated to the game and will therefore continue to fall short of his potential. It doesn't mean he won't put up okay numbers, but guys living on pure talent only go so far.

 

The best thing might be that a move to Milwaukee would get him in the butt and get him on a better path. That's the organization's job to figure him out - but again, I'm skeptical. I'm more inclined to think he'll be happy with his millions and enjoy life - even if he isn't a star anymore.

 

The other thing is that the club seems to be trying to create a good environment, and you worry about a guy like Puig. I wold hope they would jettison the guy if he became a problem.

[TheCrew07]

Casey I just reread my post and I hope this part didn't come off as condescending, I was genuinely curious where you were coming from, but the sentence doesn't read that way upon further reflection.

 

So sure all those guys could have MLB value, but what's the goal here? Just depth? Quality depth? Top of the rotation potential?

[brewcrewdue80]

Are we still arguing that Puig and McCarthy+2 low end prospects for Braun is proper value in return? 2more HRs 5RBI reaching 30HRs once again, but hey he's not on the same level of Puig's ceiling....

 

Just now 4pts from Puig's Rookie high OPS of .925 that has fallen: .862/.758/.730

 

Scooter Gennett has a higher OPS than Puig after today. You want to include him to LA to attain the 1 higher prospect like De Leon?

Boy lets just wreck this club completely and get AAAA players in return.

 

Puig Lovers, please indicate to me what you even consider his ceiling is in a Brewer uniform? Because his last two seasons indicate a player with 30-35pts higher batting avg than Chris Carter for 20HRs a season less. How was Carter obtained again for how much? He's a malcontent on a World Series contending team since day 1 arrival, how's that going to translate being put to a team who's not expected to win his 2 remaining years before Free Agency. Personally, both Keon Broxton and Domingo Santana present higher ceilings by a big margin to me than Puig possesses. I imagine Santana becoming the Brewers #3 batter when Braun is dealt. There's Phillips and Brinson now who make Puig a 4th OF/platoon bat like LA is approaching him this month.

 

It's just 3 years have gone by since Puig's great rookie season. Name one thing of his that show's he's capable of progressing, vs his continual regressing. I can't find a stat that shows improvement forthcoming.

[MrTPlush]

It's ok to admit you are just a Puig hater. You act like he just had one good season. After his 5 WAR rookie season he had a 5 WAR second season.

[pacopete4]

It's ok to admit you are just a Puig hater. You act like he just had one good season. After his 5 WAR rookie season he had a 5 WAR second season.

 

Sometimes you have to really look at what have you done for me lately. It's hard to make a case for Puig with the dollar value he has.

[HighHeat19]

This has to be a situation where Puig knew that if he didn't shape up he's going to Milwaukee. Puig does not want to come here. Hence the reason he has been on his best behavior and actually trying. L.A. just didn't want to put up with his shenanigans anymore. I don't see Puig being traded to the Crew going forward.

 

L.A. was also tired of McCarthy being hurt and needed to offset the salary.

 

If a trade does get done, I now see McCarthy, and REAL top prospects heading back to Milwaukee. And DeLeon should be part of that package. Brewers will have all winter to play cat and mouse if L.A. doesn't put DeLeon up.

[MrTPlush]

It's ok to admit you are just a Puig hater. You act like he just had one good season. After his 5 WAR rookie season he had a 5 WAR second season.

 

Sometimes you have to really look at what have you done for me lately. It's hard to make a case for Puig with the dollar value he has.

 

Well you can't just look at stats. Why has Puig not been the great the past two years? It isn't because of potential, but more distractions and not having his head on straight. We know what Puig can do and that is be a 5 WAR player.

 

If the Brewers are trading for Puig it is because they believe their system in place can get him on track. He is well worth the risk dollar wise. If they make Puig like he was the first two years in the league you sure won't be complaining. Odds of that? Impossible to say.

[MrTPlush]

This has to be a situation where Puig knew that if he didn't shape up he's going to Milwaukee. Puig does not want to come here.

 

Come on now. So he is going to instantly shape up because of the thought of going to Milwaukee? Yet he doesn't care about the $100mil+ contract he is losing out on if he doesn't shape up?

 

You are really grasping for straws with that theory.

[brewcrewdue80]

It's ok to admit you are just a Puig hater. You act like he just had one good season. After his 5 WAR rookie season he had a 5 WAR second season.

 

And you're a Braun Hater when you ignore his current performance(better than Puig, Ever) due to age and contract. Braun is putting up numbers 5%? Less than the numbers he won MVP with. Yet, 19million a season is too much for that kind of production. Puig is posting numbers the last two seasons 15-20% worse than his 104game-432PA rookie stats. But because of him only turning 26 for all of next season, He's to immediately return to that kind of performance, and exceed it(since he has higher ceiling than Braun)

 

So yeah, I am a hater he doesn't bring anything to the club for me. It's Kirk N-itis. He'll take away games from players who have a future to this organization and higher ceilings than Puig.

 

What's your answer when Puig bats .700ish OPS in the OF the next 2 seasons? What value are you giving him after 2017 and by 2018 trade deadline?

[pacopete4]

If you believe Braun will be a .900+ OPS guy for the next 3-4 seasons, is this even a good trade? Those guys don't grow on trees. I understand that you get players back for the future but if you're not getting back a top end prospect like DeLeon, is this even worth it?

[adambr2]

If you believe Braun will be a .900+ OPS guy for the next 3-4 seasons, is this even a good trade? Those guys don't grow on trees. I understand that you get players back for the future but if you're not getting back a top end prospect like DeLeon, is this even worth it?

 

Depends on many factors. Are we going to be competitive in the next 3-4 years anyway? Lots can still change but right now I'd still peg 2019 as the next real window of contention opening up. So that's already year 3. Even if you think he can maintain a .900 OPS for that long, is it worth hanging onto him for that one useful season?

 

Another factor is how well the outfielders you have in your system are progressing. As long as Braun is here, he IS blocking them.

 

More factors -- what are you doing with the money you save? And of course, what kind of prospects are you getting back?

 

Finally, everyone is excited about what Braun is doing, so I'd caution that his last 3 OPS's were .854, .777, and .869 in a shortened season. So..how sure are you? Even if you think his numbers were down because of injuries, there's certainly no way to guarantee that he can avoid that in the future, especially as he ages.

 

Risk/reward assessment is Stearn's job here, but its always better to sell a year too early than a year too late. There's a number of ways this could go, but if next year he's battling injuries and OPSing. 785, a lot of people will be asking why we didn't sell.

[pacopete4]

If you believe Braun will be a .900+ OPS guy for the next 3-4 seasons, is this even a good trade? Those guys don't grow on trees. I understand that you get players back for the future but if you're not getting back a top end prospect like DeLeon, is this even worth it?

 

Depends on many factors. Are we going to be competitive in the next 3-4 years anyway? Lots can still change but right now I'd still peg 2019 as the next real window of contention opening up. So that's already year 3. Even if you think he can maintain a .900 OPS for that long, is it worth hanging onto him for that one useful season?

 

Another factor is how well the outfielders you have in your system are progressing. As long as Braun is here, he IS blocking them.

 

More factors -- what are you doing with the money you save? And of course, what kind of prospects are you getting back?

 

Finally, everyone is excited about what Braun is doing, so I'd caution that his last 3 OPS's were .854, .777, and .869 in a shortened season. So..how sure are you? Even if you think his numbers were down because of injuries, there's certainly no way to guarantee that he can avoid that in the future, especially as he ages.

 

Risk/reward assessment is Stearn's job here, but its always better to sell a year too early than a year too late. There's a number of ways this could go, but if next year he's battling injuries and OPSing. 785, a lot of people will be asking why we didn't sell.

 

 

I completely get that point. But will we really be upset if we are passing up second tier prospects? Because if that is what we get in this, I'm just not seeing the long term picture. Like any prospect they could turn out and we hit a homer but at this point, we have one of the best in the game. Why sell low on him?

[logan82]

Other than the .777 OPS those are still pretty good. .869 would have been good enough for 20th in all of baseball and .854 24th in their respective years. Even the .777 was 47th in the league. He can't keep it up and will hit a wall at some point. I think it will be before we are competitive but let's not pretend he isn't still one of the better hitters in baseball.

[MrTPlush]

If you believe Braun will be a .900+ OPS guy for the next 3-4 seasons, is this even a good trade? Those guys don't grow on trees. I understand that you get players back for the future but if you're not getting back a top end prospect like DeLeon, is this even worth it?

 

Well if things were simple and we knew Braun would OPS near .900 maybe you don't make the trade. However things aren't that simple. You have a guy that is getting up there in age and has a long injury history. That could catch up on him in a flash and we will forever wonder what happened to Braun. No offense, but if Braun regresses into an above average player he is probably wasting a spot that some 10 years younger could do it for $20mil less. Mind you I am talking about 2019/2020 when we may care about him wasting space.

 

There is risk both way and I am not sure there is a clear answer.

[jerichoholicninja]

I feel the same way about Braun as I did about Lucroy. Both can't/couldn't get their value any higher than present. Both have rather large injury risks that would derail any chance of getting a good return. Move them while you can. I'd rather take the chance that he can bring back 2 or 3 good to very good players than keep one great player through a couple losing seasons and maybe one competitive one.

[HighHeat19]

I feel the same way about Braun as I did about Lucroy. Both can't/couldn't get their value any higher than present. Both have rather large injury risks that would derail any chance of getting a good return. Move them while you can. I'd rather take the chance that he can bring back 2 or 3 good to very good players than keep one great player through a couple losing seasons and maybe one competitive one.

 

Exactly!!! And David Stearns and Co. see it the same way.