What could Braun bring from the Dodgers?

[SandyTolan]

There seems to be a consensus that if Braun is traded -- this coming winter, or less likely, this month -- the logical choice would be to the Dodgers. They seem like a good fit, especially this year. But it's not clear they're interested.

 

If they were, Stearns has made it clear (including to the Braves) that this would be a prospect deal, not a salary dump.

 

So. Would the Dodgers part with Cody Bellinger + for Braun? Perhaps Bellinger and a high pitching prospect? And what if the Brewers added Tyler Thornburg? (That deal would almost certainly have to be in the winter.) Probably it's too much to ask for Bellinger and Urias for Braun and Thornburg. But what about Bellinger and Jose DeLeon (or one of Yadier Alvarez/Frankie Montas), plus a lottery pick? Would you do a deal like that? Would the Dodgers? And as for Bellinger himself -- how much would you expect from him ultimately?

[MrTPlush]

Bellinger plus some change(not super promising players) is probably the best one could dream on. That is if the Brewers pick up salary. I really just don't see it at this point. Ryan Braun is the second best player in franchise history. To trade him I think they would need a can't miss guy so they know they won't end up trading Braun for nothing.

 

The only way I see a deal happening is if Stearns wants to go fishing in the lower levels. I know when Hamels was traded the return didn't look groundbreaking, but a ton of the players they got ended up on Top 100 lists after the trade went down. That's probably the most realistic way we can get a good return and get him traded.

 

Also you aren't getting Urias no matter what you offer. He is on the MLB team and has ace stuff.

[Greenleaf1]

If Thornburg finishes the year strong and racks up 20 saves in the first half of 2017, he'll fetch an Andrew Miller-sized return at the trade deadline. His numbers this year are elite level by any measure (even his great start in 2013 looks like pedestrian numbers compared to this year), proving that he can be an elite closer when healthy (here's hoping he stays healthy).

 

Lumping him in with Braun would not be like lumping in Jeffress with Lucroy (who most non-Brewers fans considered to be more of an 8th inning guy than a closer). Thornburg will fetch a giant haul on his own, as could Braun if we do it right (eat some salary).

 

Agreed that digging through the low minors could be best for Braun, so we can maybe get 3 guys with high ceiling potential (similar to the Tulowitzki trade, where we maybe take someone with high salary off the Dodgers' hands (McCarthy?), or just straight eat money).

[splitterpfj]

Whether it's for Braun, Thornburg, or both, I like the Dodgers as a trade partner because of their pitching depth. They have nine pitchers in their top twenty prospects on this list.

 

Not only that, but most of them are having success, not just potential.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=la

[sveumrules]

Thornburg has been great this year but I don't think his value will be in any way comparable to Miller even with another half year at his current pace.

 

So far this year Thorny's got a 1.92 ERA/2.68 FIP over 52 innings. When adjusted for park/league his ERA/FIP rank 11th/20th among relievers so far this year, per fangraphs.

 

Compare that to Miller who has posted a 1.85 ERA/1.88 FIP in 180 innings over the last three years, which ranks him 4th/2nd among relievers over that time period when adjusted for league/park.

 

Miller = truly elite over multiple seasons. Throny (so far) = really good for one year. Assuming he maintains his current pace I would peg Thorny's trade value right around that of Will Smith, if not slightly lower given Smith had a longer track record of success & is left handed.

[brewcrewdue80]

For Braun alone I'd expect Bellinger and DeLeon without any money exchanged. Bellinger isn't even producing numbers near to what Braun is producing and that's at the Minors. De Leon has great Numbers and he'd be the Headliner with Bellinger being the 2nd piece. What Bellinger has accomplished with the bat is nothing better than what Isan Diaz has accomplished. 1b though vs 2b makes Diaz more valuable than Bellinger. One is ranked, the other isn't and that is how I believe Bellinger should be ranked. Lower. Or Diaz needs to be a top 50 prospect today.

 

Throw in Thornburg and I'm asking for...you know what, I'm not going there. He doesn't need to be included in this trade.

[paul253]

I doubt Thornburg will bring back an Andrew Miller type return but I'd hang onto him, hope he stays this good, and pray the relief market is as strong next year as it was this year. I've always liked Thornburg and do not want to see him go but just like anyone else if it makes sense to deal him you do.

[JosephC]

There have been some rumblings that the Dodgers are looking to get the payroll down to reset their luxury tax rate back to zero. They may have seemingly unlimited dollars, but owners still grow tired of paying the league 40 million dollars per season for basically nothing. The average annual value of Braun's deal is 21 million dollars and the Dodgers are in the 50% luxury tax bracket, so if they add him on top of their already huge payroll they have to pay the league 10.5 million after they pay Braun. That would very likely last through the 2018 season. I believe this makes a deal with the Dodgers much more difficult. They would probably demand the Brewers send them way more money than most would expect, or perhaps demand Scott Kazmir be packaged in the deal.

 

I also don't think the no trade clause in Braun's contract is that big of a hurdle to get a deal done. Braun would probably approve a trade to any contender during the off-season as long as the team option for 2021 be converted into a player option. It's only an 11 million commitment above his current deal so a few extra million included by Milwaukee solves that problem. Milwaukee probably won't contend in the short-term and he'd likely have far more endorsement opportunities in a new market. Relocating his family in the off-season just isn't that big of a deal, teams are setup to handle this and if the opportunity is better for his career it's very unlikely that this would be a sticking point.

 

I actually like the Astros as a really good fit. Their left field production has been terrible this season (.232/.288/.367/.655). Colby Rasmus is as good as gone. I don't think Preston Tucker is an everyday MLB left fielder. His brother, Kyle Tucker, is their left fielder of the future but he's in A ball and probably doesn't see the majors until 2019. If he proves to be the real deal then Braun moves to DH when he arrives. Houston has tremendous flexibility as they probably only have about 70 million committed in payroll for next season after the arbitration salaries are added in. Braun has a much better chance to win there and would be heading to one of the top 10 television markets. Why would he veto the opportunity if the teams convert the last year of the deal into a player option? It would guarantee him another 11 million dollars...or if he is still performing well he has the decision to rescind that year and maybe get a two year deal on the market for better money. Houston has a deep system, it's pretty likely that Stearns could find an acceptable return without having to demand one of the Astros top 5 prospects.

[LouisEly]

The threshold for 2016 was $189M; right now the Dodgers are committed to $179M for 2017 but only $128M for 2018. A lot of what is coming off is either dead money (Crawford, Morse, Arroyo, Guerrero) or veterans who aren't a core part of the team (Ruiz, Kendrick, Howell, Anderson, Utley, Reddick/Hill, Blanton, Chavez). The only key contributors who are free agents are Jansen and Turner; they may let Turner walk and let Segedin take over at 3B.

 

This could be a valuable spot for Gennett - a cheap replacement for Utley. Maldy/Pina could be a cheap replacement for Ruiz. While they aren't very valuable to the Brewers, they are valuable to the Dodgers - cheap yet proven MLB players. Gennett is looking to be a 1.5 WAR player, Maldy so far is 0.5 WAR (but not bad for only having 170 PAs - would project to 1.5 WAR if a full-time starter). They could be added to a Braun trade. Depends on what the Dodgers think of Austin Barnes and where they see him next year - as their 2B or super sub (2B/C). Not sure what Torres would get in arby, but he could have value to the Dodgers if he's cheap enough in 2017.

 

Reports are that Puig is turning it around in AAA - both in performance and attitude. While I don't want him on the Brewers, he could be part of a 3-way deal to clear some salary for the Dodgers. I really do think that one way or another Puig is in Atlanta come 2017. Another option is Andre Ethier - he is only guaranteed $20M more ($17.5M for 2017 and $2.5M buyout for 2018), and while I would not want him in the OF he could move to 1B if the Brewers don't bring back Carter. Brandon McCarthy isn't terribly expensive either, and could be flipped at the deadline in 2017 for more assets. Howie Kendrick could be an option, particularly if Gennett goes.

 

Braun plus one of Gennett/Maldy/Pina for one of McCarthy/Kendrick/Puig plus prospects would minimize the luxury tax hit for the Dodgers. Actually, both of McCarthy/Puig wouldn't be bad as the Brewers could probably flip them for other prospects.

[JosephC]

The Dodgers only have the 128 million committed for 2018, but adding in a 21 million luxury cap figure for Braun and the probably another 15 million for arbitration players (Grandal and Pederson should be approximately 10 of that 15 million), and then the Dodgers are only about 25 million below the threshold and would still have about another 10 players to add to fill out the 25 man roster. It is definitely possible the Dodgers would be willing to do this. They could see that as having enough wiggle-room (I don't). The speculation that the Dodgers might want to dip below the 189 million threshold in 2018 could be way off base. But if the Dodgers are currently looking at that season to "reset" the luxury tax meter to zero, adding Braun this off-season really could handcuff those efforts.

 

At first I hated the idea of taking on McCarthy as a salary offset because he might be impossible to flip as he is seemingly ALWAYS injured (has made it through one season in the last ten?). But in any Braun deal the trading partner will probably demand the Brewers at least pick up the deferred portion of Braun's deal (18 million). If the Brewers take McCarthy instead, cots has him with a 10 million dollar salary in both 2017 and 2018 so it's almost a wash assuming deferred money assumption is correct. That's not a bad suggestion. Always better to get a player back in a deal than just eat money. And as suggested, if he's healthy he could be a good flip candidate at next year's trade deadline.

[reillymcshane]

Rosenthal confirmed that the Brewers and Dodgers discussed a deal for Braun before the trade deadline:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/rosenthals-latest-dodgers-brewers-braun-puig-d-backs.html

 

Certainly something to keep an eye on.

[brewerfan82]

Puig has been placed on revocable waivers:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/dodgers-place-yasiel-puig-on-revocable-waivers.html

 

I know many aren't advocates of getting Puig in a Braun trade, but theoretically with Braun already cleared, the waivers would only have to reach the Brewers in order for a potential trade centered around Braun for Puig to be possible. I'm assuming the Brewers would still need to kick in some money, maybe just for this year though with Puig included, but who else would you want in a trade to make it worth it for you? Would getting DeLeon plus a couple lower minor prospects do it? You could hope for a strong (well behaved) finish to the year from Puig and see what the trade market is for him in the offseason as well.

[adambr2]

I'd want more for Braun, but I'd be happy to take Puig, even though I know many feel differently. If he can't get his head on straight, you can always move on.

 

Maturity can develop. But talent, either someone has it or they don't. Puig does.

[wildcat2237]

Puig has been placed on revocable waivers:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/dodgers-place-yasiel-puig-on-revocable-waivers.html

 

I know many aren't advocates of getting Puig in a Braun trade, but theoretically with Braun already cleared, the waivers would only have to reach the Brewers in order for a potential trade centered around Braun for Puig to be possible. I'm assuming the Brewers would still need to kick in some money, maybe just for this year though with Puig included, but who else would you want in a trade to make it worth it for you? Would getting DeLeon plus a couple lower minor prospects do it? You could hope for a strong (well behaved) finish to the year from Puig and see what the trade market is for him in the offseason as well.

 

No.

 

If the Brewers are taking on Puig and his salary I'd want a Lucroyesque package. I would be OK with De Leon as the headliner but I would also want Verdugo and one other decent piece.

[FVBrewerFan]

I'm not greedy. DeLeon straight up for Braun, I would be thrilled.

[DHonks]

I still want 4 prospects minimum for Braun. His contract is a plus, not a detriment. It should add value to the return, not require us to throw in a lot of money.

[reillymcshane]

I still want 4 prospects minimum for Braun. His contract is a plus, not a detriment. It should add value to the return, not require us to throw in a lot of money.

If his contract is such a plus, why didn't anyone claim him? I mean, it was a chance to get him, so why not?

[DHonks]

My guess is that most teams realized the Brewers would pull him off waivers. But I can't figure out why teams wouldn't want an all-star performing at a high level. How is it that he's vilified for steroids more than Johnny Peralta, Melky Cabrera, and others?

[MadThinker88]

How is it that he's vilified for steroids more than Johnny Peralta, Melky Cabrera, and others?

 

The way he acted and basically accused other's of botching the test he took when caught..

While other players have claimed ignorance as to how they took a banned substance, Braun went after a person...

[nate82]

How is it that he's vilified for steroids more than Johnny Peralta, Melky Cabrera, and others?

 

The way he acted and basically accused other's of botching the test he took when caught..

While other players have claimed ignorance as to how they took a banned substance, Braun went after a person...

 

I am getting tired of reading this. The person who collected the sample did not follow the agreed upon process between the MLB and the MLBPA. So Braun had every right to go after him and was justified in doing so.

 

Legally the MLB should have thrown this out before it even became public as the chain of custody for the samples did not follow the guidelines.

[adambr2]

Players of Braun's caliber don't (generally) go unclaimed just because teams realize we'd pull him back, so I really don't think that's it. If they wanted him at that price, they'd still put in a claim which would give them exclusive negotiating rights for him. Whether or not they think we'd pull him back, a claim still allows that team the right to negotiate with us for Braun.

 

I don't think the issue is the average yearly price of Braun's contract, it's the length. If Braun was just under contract through next year at 20M, or even just 2018, it probably wouldn't be a big issue. Through 2020 is a long commitment. Just because Braun's contract is a bargain now doesn't mean it'll be a bargain in 2 years. It might be, but that's a risk. It didn't look like a bargain to most a year ago.

 

Also, the big spenders also have to contend with the luxury tax, as someone pointed out. Any contract the Dodgers take on will cost the Dodgers an extra 50%. So that 20M next year for Braun at full price will cost the Dodgers 30M, at which point it doesn't look like such a bargain anymore.

 

So while that doesn't mean the Dodgers aren't interested in Braun, it's a plenty good enough reason for them not to claim him on waivers and risk 30M a year for a 32 year old. They'll no doubt be looking for some sort of salary relief in a deal (or return a big contract to us), which actually works out fine for us because it seems we are willing to offer some sort of salary relief in a trade for Braun to maximize the return.

[MrTPlush]

How is it that he's vilified for steroids more than Johnny Peralta, Melky Cabrera, and others?

 

The way he acted and basically accused other's of botching the test he took when caught..

While other players have claimed ignorance as to how they took a banned substance, Braun went after a person...

 

I am getting tired of reading this. The person who collected the sample did not follow the agreed upon process between the MLB and the MLBPA. So Braun had every right to go after him and was justified in doing so.

 

Legally the MLB should have thrown this out before it even became public as the chain of custody for the samples did not follow the guidelines.

 

No he really didn't have every right to go after the guy and question his character etc. like he did. Braun knew he cheated himself. Braun was willing to make other people look bad to save his own butt. Braun should have just accepted his own suspension and there should have never been any appeal. The argument the chain of custody was broken may be true, but for it to effect the sample is a joke. Nothing happened to the sample and he followed all protocol if a FedEx was not open. However one was open so Braun got off the hook.

 

It all doesn't matter though because I don't think that is why Braun is so hated over others it is just a piece to the hate puzzle. He is hated so much because he said it was false and he went on for months about it. Then he had that speech during spring training after he won. While most PED users lie and say "I have no idea how this happened" only Braun had some long drawn out lie that lasted a good year. Once it was found out he really did cheat he looked like a total douche.

[tmwiese55]

The way he stored it definitely could have affected the result of the sample and that's what they proved in the appeal. It was reported they recreated the situation and presented the results proving it affected. Some Olympian did the same thing and proved it, probably where Braun's team got the idea. Again, it was reported at the time that the other people tested that day also all tested drastically so high that their tests were thrown out because they were impossible whereas Braun's was just under the threshold of being thrown out. Very good chance imo that if the tester didn't botch that handling he wouldn't have failed that test and then who knows, maybe he gets swept under the rug in the Miami scandal instead of being one of the two people MLB had a complete obsession about.

 

Where Braun messed up was implying the guy might have intentionally tampered and just overall being so brazen about it in that speech when he won. Should have just been humble, said the process worked and that he maintains innocence. Maybe mentioned the things I mentioned above or anything else that could have 'proven' his innocence.

 

I still think it's laughable that it's such a supposed cloud over him but everyone else is just ignored. I actually don't think it's because anyone is more offended over his handling. It's simply that he's just more famous so everyone knows about him. Whereas joe schmo fan doesn't know that Cruz, Grandal, Cervelli, Pheralta etc were in the same scandal. So it's just something to bust his chops about when on the road. Would be the same thing if he dated a Kardashian, had a sex scandal, or anything enough that it made national news.

[JosephC]

I don't think the steroid issue has any impact on the way MLB teams view Braun. None. Zero. What I think most MLB teams see is a player that is 32 years old that has back and hand (thumb) problems and it's not likely that either of those two injury concerns ever go completely away. He has a guaranteed contract for 4 more years and from the end of this season forward is still to be paid a minimum of 80 million dollars. He may have a favorable contract now but how likely will that be in 2019 and 2020? It's only natural that a trading partner will look for the Brewers to pick up part of that deal or dump a bad contract on Milwaukee.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think we're missing the obvious. Yes, Braun's contract isn't bad. But if the Dodgers want a bat, why not sign a FA in the off-season and not have to give up any prospects?

 

I see comments about how the Dodgers should be giving up four prospects for Braun, when they could wait until the off-season and give up nothing. Plus the fact, Dodgers aren't competing against anyone for Braun's services.

 

That's why we need to be realistic. Braun for DeLeon would be great. If you insist on one more really good prospect from the low minors, ok. But anything more than that is a pipe dream in my opinion.