Trading minor league prospects

[Noche]

I wasn't directing anything at you Adam, but the people who pretend to be obtuse. My two posts above are self-explanatory and I have no inclination to further expand on something that is already clear. In general, the posters that create straw men, feign misunderstandings, or add meanings that were never said is what I'm responding to. Beyond that, I am fine with agreeing to disagree. There's no reason to get emotional about what others say if it's the slightest bit critical or setting expectations.

 

When your critique is invalid and your expectations are unrealistic, don't be surprised when folks come back at you. But sure, we can agree to disagree on Corey Ray.

[adambr2]

I wasn't directing anything at you Adam, but the people who pretend to be obtuse. My two posts above are self-explanatory and I have no inclination to further expand on something that is already clear. In general, the posters that create straw men, feign misunderstandings, or add meanings that were never said is what I'm responding to. Beyond that, I am fine with agreeing to disagree. There's no reason to get emotional about what others say if it's the slightest bit critical or setting expectations.

 

When your critique is invalid and your expectations are unrealistic, don't be surprised when folks come back at you. But sure, we can agree to disagree on Corey Ray.

 

I think all sveumrules was getting at was that while sure, we have high expectations for Corey Ray and hope he develops into a superstar player, history tells us that it's likely we get less than that, that's all.

[Austin Tatious]

I wasn't directing anything at you Adam, but the people who pretend to be obtuse. My two posts above are self-explanatory and I have no inclination to further expand on something that is already clear. In general, the posters that create straw men, feign misunderstandings, or add meanings that were never said is what I'm responding to. Beyond that, I am fine with agreeing to disagree. There's no reason to get emotional about what others say if it's the slightest bit critical or setting expectations.

 

When your critique is invalid and your expectations are unrealistic, don't be surprised when folks come back at you. But sure, we can agree to disagree on Corey Ray.

 

You obviously did not read my two posts carefully. I suggest you re-read it next time, before you respond.

[pogokat]

Stop the pointless bickering.

[SandyTolan]

People, people! Life's too short to quibble over whether someone read your posts carefully or not!

 

I say again:

 

Now, levity aside: Corey Ray went 3 for 4 last night. His August OBP is .350 and OPS is .856. Walk rate for August is 12 percent. Could it be the young man, after skipping two minor league levels, is putting it together in a very difficult hitting environment? It would seem so.

[pacopete4]

Since he will probably be compared to him throughout his career because they were drafted in the same position, here are Ryan Braun's Brevard County stats from 2006

 

Braun - Played 59 games, 226 at bats, hit 7 homers and had a line of .274/.346/.438/.784

 

This is after a full season of playing 1/2 rookie ball and 1/2 A ball. Of which he destroyed pitching there.

 

 

Corey Ray seems to be transitioning just fine. Austin Tatious is hard to read your stuff after the Draft Forum because I know you hated the pick.

[Austin Tatious]

You are right, the bickering is not good and I apologize for my role in it.

 

Whether I liked the pick or not, Ray is part of the Brewers future and we all hope he becomes a stud. I did say some positive things about Ray above. We are all here rooting for Ray to be a major success, that's the important thing.

[pacopete4]

You are right, the bickering is not good and I apologize for my role in it.

 

Whether I liked the pick or not, Ray is part of the Brewers future and we all hope he becomes a stud. I did say some positive things about Ray above. We are all here rooting for Ray to be a major success, that's the important thing.

 

 

Couldn't agree more.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't see how we can draw any conclusions in looking back at former #5 picks. Some were great players, some were busts. How is that in any way predictive of what kind of player Ray will be?

[Greenleaf1]

Since he will probably be compared to him throughout his career because they were drafted in the same position, here are Ryan Braun's Brevard County stats from 2006

 

Braun - Played 59 games, 226 at bats, hit 7 homers and had a line of .274/.346/.438/.784

 

This is after a full season of playing 1/2 rookie ball and 1/2 A ball. Of which he destroyed pitching there.

 

Thanks for this info, definitely puts things in perspective.

 

For all the talk about Colorado Springs and its effect on our prospects, I wonder if we're overlooking just how dramatic an effect Brevard County has in the other direction.

 

This year it's a little harder to notice because all the super young pitchers there aren't doing that great (Diplan, Medeiros, etc.), but almost nobody is hitting there with any kind of authority, and Ray is putting together quite the month of August.

 

That said, less than half a season of pro ball is just not enough to get an informed opinion on him. Will be interesting to see how he does in 2017 (hoping to see him at Spring Training too).

[sveumrules]

I don't see how we can draw any conclusions in looking back at former #5 picks. Some were great players, some were busts. How is that in any way predictive of what kind of player Ray will be?

 

Looking back at past #5 picks is in no way predictive of what kind of player Ray will be, the only conclusion to be drawn from such an exercise is that it's probably best to wait and see what happens before making any definitive judgements. Yet, the fact that he was the #5 overall pick (& an advanced college bat at that) will be brought up relative to his performance & expectations thereof for the rest of his minor (& hopefully major) league career(s).

[Never Outhustled]

Stearns traded Sneed, Wagner, and Sardinas last offseason. I think it's a given he'll deal a prospect or two this winter. What I worry about is that Stearns sold low on two youngish controllable veterans, Segura and Davis. Between them, they are 6.3 wins above replacement. It might have been wiser for him to take some time to assess what they had in those two. As good as Villar's been, he's not been as good as Segura, and Davis is on pace for 40 HR and over 100 RBI. Old school stats or not, that's worth more than they got for him.

 

I think is important to remember that when Khris Davis was the same age as Josh Nottingham is now, Khris was playing for the Rookie Level Arizona Brewers. He put up a 869 OPS. What would Nottingham put up there now? 1.600?

 

It's likely Nottingham will likely be worth far, far more per dollar spent in his first 6 years than what KD does in these couple years with Oakland, even if Nottingham ends up a LF like Davis.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't see how we can draw any conclusions in looking back at former #5 picks. Some were great players, some were busts. How is that in any way predictive of what kind of player Ray will be?

 

Looking back at past #5 picks is in no way predictive of what kind of player Ray will be, the only conclusion to be drawn from such an exercise is that it's probably best to wait and see what happens before making any definitive judgements. Yet, the fact that he was the #5 overall pick (& an advanced college bat at that) will be brought up relative to his performance & expectations thereof for the rest of his minor (& hopefully major) league career(s).

 

Well I agree with that. There are and should be expectations that go along with being the #5 overall pick.

[MrTPlush]

The Brewers didn't sell low on Jean Segura. Holding onto him would have done nothing. It was clear he sucked hear and we were never going to fix him. I am glad he is have a nice season, but it is a fluke. I don't think he can sustain a .360 BABIP or anywhere close to it every year. It will regress and average at best Segura will be back.

 

I would still take Isan Diaz for Jean Segura straight up today. Isan Diaz should be a Top 100 prospect around the baseball world after the season. Another solid season after this one and he will be flying up lists just like Arcia did. If he isn't on a list they have never seen him play. The kid can do it all well.

[gregmag]

Any gm would have traded Jean Segura last winter. No one argued for not trading Jean Segura last winter. Anyone who pretends that he would have advised against trading Segura last winter is the kind of fabulist who would pretend Khris Davis is a first-division starter. Oh wait.

[CheeseheadInQC]

When your critique is invalid and your expectations are unrealistic, don't be surprised when folks come back at you. But sure, we can agree to disagree on Corey Ray.

 

While the tone of the initial post felt weird, truthfully he's not all that far off. While the guys this year went exceptionally fast, most college bats drafted toward the top of the first round who end up living up to expectations don't spend much time in the minors. The standard is generally start the first full year in A+ or AA, either get a taste of AAA at the end of that first full season or at the start of the second full season and then get called up sometime during that year as playing time and service time dictate. The overwhelming majority of college bats picked in the first round who succeed at the big league level don't struggle much in the minors once they get acclimated to pro ball. While there are obviously exceptions, if Ray isn't Major League ready to start the 2019 season, the chances of him becoming an above average starter aren't that great.

[brewerfan82]

Just to add some research to this, I looked up the top 10 picks for a 10 year stretch from 1995-2004 and came up with some interesting numbers:

 

- 17 college hitters were taken in the first 10 rounds between 1995 and 2004 (along with 27 prep hitters, 22 prep pitchers, and 32 college pitchers - a Cuban pitcher and a JD Drew situation round out the 100 picks)

- 16 of 17 college hitters made the majors (the only one not to was the Brewers' Chad Green...)

- 12 of 17 college hitters accumulated at least 10 WAR in their career

- All 12 college hitters who produced at least 10 WAR (and 15 of 17 overall) made their debut within 3 years of being drafted

- The 5 college hitters that produced at least 30 WAR in their career all made their debut within 2 years of being drafted

 

If you switch to prep hitters you get:

 

- 22 of 27 prep hitters made the majors

- 10 of 27 prep hitters accumulated at least 10 WAR in their career

- 6 of 10 prep hitters who produced at least 10 WAR (and 10 of 27 overall) made their debut within 3 years of being drafted

- 9 of 10 prep hitters who produced at least 10 WAR (and 17 of 27 overall) made their debut within 4 years of being drafted

- Only 3 of 27 prep hitters produced more than 30 WAR, compared to 5 of 17 college hitters. That seems interesting as prep hitters are usually viewed as worth the extra risk because they having higher ceilings.

 

Just thought that was interesting and backs up the idea that we should be hoping Ray moves through the system quickly.

[LouisEly]

Thanks MrAllen. I had aspirations of doing a similar exercise, as I've had a hypothesis for a while that prep bats are the riskiest type of pick.

 

Obviously it's hard to compare that time frame to now because there was no such thing as comp picks for unsigned players and a bonus pool back then. Signability played a part in who went where.

 

The Drew situation still makes me mad. If he signs with the Phillies, the Cardinals don't draft him the next year. Then the Cardinals don't acquire Wainwright.