Trading minor league prospects

[adambr2]

This could probably go either in the Trade or Minors discussion, but what are people's thoughts on exploring trades for the seemingly crowded outfield that we have in our farm?

 

By my estimates, we have at least 6 outfielders that could be viewed as legitimate outfielders of the future, plus one current very high level player in Braun, so you've got Braun, Broxton, Santana, Ray, Phillips, Brinson, and Clark. If you really want to stretch, you could even add Harrison and Coulter to this list to make 9.

 

Now often these 'problems' solve themselves, and a guy or two on this list are bound to not pan out, but while there's still quite a bit of value in this group, should we be looking at moving some of them now in prospect for prospect trades, or for young MLB players like Villar?

 

Braun is a very obvious trade candidate, but the age, injuries, PED history, contract, and no-trade clause all present obstacles. The thing is, in spite of all those things, he's still a really good player, and we're not just going to give him away.

 

So what about the value of some of the current outfield prospects? One included in a package for a high level pitching prospect might be one path in the much needed quest to rebuild our pitching staff.

[LouisEly]

A few years ago the Cubs traded young pitching prospect Andrew Cashner for 1B prospect Anthony Rizzo. I don't think they regretted it one bit. So far I don't think the Brewers regret trading Cy Sneed.

 

I do think it is a bit premature to be talking about Ray, Clark, and Harrison; I think the first two will make it, but it will be 3-4 years before they are ready for the majors (2017 - A+, 2018 - AA, 2019 - AAA). Phillips has some work to do as well and is at least 1.5 years away. Other than Broxton and Brinson, none are really producing to the point where they would bring back a lot in return.

 

I think there is a good chance Braun becomes a Dodger in the next 1.5 years - they have a lot of payroll coming off the books the next two seasons yet have most of their core signed through 2018 and have holes in the OF; I think they will pony up what it will take to pry Braun away. I think Santana eventually moves to 1B, particularly if better defenders (Brinson, Phillips) make it. I think it will be at least 3 years before Ray or Clark will be knocking on the door (2017 A+, 2018 AA, 2019 AAA). Assuming all make it, 2018 could be Broxton/Brinson/Phillips with Coulter pressing mid/late 2018. I also think it's possible that one of Phillips/Coulter won't be anything special.

[adambr2]

A few years ago the Cubs traded young pitching prospect Andrew Cashner for 1B prospect Anthony Rizzo. I don't think they regretted it one bit. So far I don't think the Brewers regret trading Cy Sneed.

 

I do think it is a bit premature to be talking about Ray, Clark, and Harrison; I think the first two will make it, but it will be 3-4 years before they are ready for the majors (2017 - A+, 2018 - AA, 2019 - AAA). Phillips has some work to do as well and is at least 1.5 years away. Other than Broxton and Brinson, none are really producing to the point where they would bring back a lot in return.

 

I think there is a good chance Braun becomes a Dodger in the next 1.5 years - they have a lot of payroll coming off the books the next two seasons yet have most of their core signed through 2018 and have holes in the OF; I think they will pony up what it will take to pry Braun away. I think Santana eventually moves to 1B, particularly if better defenders (Brinson, Phillips) make it. I think it will be at least 3 years before Ray or Clark will be knocking on the door (2017 A+, 2018 AA, 2019 AAA). Assuming all make it, 2018 could be Broxton/Brinson/Phillips with Coulter pressing mid/late 2018. I also think it's possible that one of Phillips/Coulter won't be anything special.

 

I agree with all of this except Brinson not being worth a big return. He's arguably a top 25 prospect in all of baseball and was the centerpiece of a deal for both Lucroy and Jeffress. If they even considered dealing him I'm sure the return would have to be substantial. At this point anyway.

[MadThinker88]

Don't think you deal the prosepcts quite yet, probably not even during the off season. That said,

IF THERE IS A CHANCE to get s possible TOR, DS needs to look at that very closely...

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Santana to 1B? Because he has proven that he is an awesome bat that shouldn't be kept out of the line up. The only prospect that can bring back a top tier pitching prospect is Brinson. All other prospects have flaws. Some will pan out but pitching outweighs fielding and hitting. You build pitching or sign it in free agency. Teams rarely trade pitchers, especially with team control.

[Austin Tatious]

It's not going to take Ray in particular three years to make it. That's a description of an average ball player. We aren't looking for Ray to be average. He has the expectations associated with being taken fifth overall. He's going to have the expectation to bounce more than one level in a year as the top prospects do. Ray will be expected to start at A plus and move up to double A next year and rake there. Once you're successful at double A, then you're on your way rapidly. The same could happen for Clark although, as a high school bat, you'd be on a longer schedule. He's already up to .250 at A ball. Once it clicks in, he will move too. Fellow top 5 pick Nick Senzel put it well:

 

 

 

Having watched Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman and Andrew Benintendi go from the 2015 draft to the Majors less than a year later, Reds third base prospect Nick Senzel said on the MLBPipeline.com podcast that he hopes for a similarly quick ascent (also via Sheldon). Senzel, the No. 2 overall pick in this season’s draft, is hitting .309/.400/.545 with seven homers in 46 games with Class-A Dayton. He hasn’t been moved quite as aggressively as Bregman, who played at Class-A Advanced during his debut season, but neither Swanson nor Benintendi topped Class-A last season and both still made it to the bigs this year. “You look at those guys … get there their first full year, as a player and a college hitter that makes you hungry to get up there,” said Senzel.

..

 

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/nl-central-notes-bell-peraza-senzel-capuano-nolin.html?fv-home=0&post-id=71006

[MrTPlush]

Just because a player is taken high or is a college hitter doesn't mean they should fly through the system. College hitters are all different from eachother. Some of them still need their game to take shape more while other just need to get used to more difficult competition. If I remember right Senzel was considered the most MLB ready hitter in the draft.

 

If you place expectations on a guy just because he is a high draft pick or a college hitter I promise you your player development will be horrendous, full of failures. You will have a Mike Zunino and be dumbfounded on why he can't hit .200

[JohnBriggs12]

Santana to 1B? Because he has proven that he is an awesome bat that shouldn't be kept out of the line up. The only prospect that can bring back a top tier pitching prospect is Brinson. All other prospects have flaws. Some will pan out but pitching outweighs fielding and hitting. You build pitching or sign it in free agency. Teams rarely trade pitchers, especially with team control.

 

Santana has proven he has an awesome bat? He's a .224 hitter with 131Ks and a slugging percentage under .400 in 312 career ABs. That's awesome?? He has a ton to prove. He appears to have a decent eye at the plate but he needs to make more consistent contact and hit with more power than he's shown thus far.

 

Brewers may get there, but I'm not seeing this glut of OF. They should have held on to Davis another year at least. His value is much higher now.

[Outlander]

I know it wasn't blue but pretty sure that was sarcasm.

[Austin Tatious]

Just because a player is taken high or is a college hitter doesn't mean they should fly through the system. College hitters are all different from eachother. Some of them still need their game to take shape more while other just need to get used to more difficult competition. If I remember right Senzel was considered the most MLB ready hitter in the draft.

 

If you place expectations on a guy just because he is a high draft pick or a college hitter I promise you your player development will be horrendous, full of failures. You will have a Mike Zunino and be dumbfounded on why he can't hit .200

 

 

Making excuses for your top 5 advanced college bat is unbecoming. His comps are raking. Thars what he should be able to do. Own your pick. You think you got the right guy, let him prove it, which he should do. Lowering expectations and making excuses before he even fails is a negative mentality.

 

When you earn a top five pick for inept suckitude, the fan base wants a payoff with a high end prospect. Drafting a guy and then immediately making excuses for why he may have a slow improvement slope, when all the top college bats the last couple of years have ascended, shows a complete lack of confidence in your guy.

 

The odds of Ray being a slow developer and then trickling up to the majors at age 26 and then being a standout are slim to none. If he's a slow developer, you're looking at a mediocre player. That's not what we drafted at fifth overall. We want our Andrew Benintendi.

 

Unless you want to keep watching the Red Sox compete every year, while we look for our next Kodi Medieros.

[Austin Tatious]

I think Ray is a great kid, based on testimonials and seeing him in interviews. He is a gym rat and loves the game. His intangibles are outstanding.

 

He's up to .230 now after a slow start. His typical teammate is at .180. He's on an upswing so I could see him closing out at .245 or so. He can't show power at BC. But, all things considered, including questionable at best coaching, that's a fine start all things considered.

 

Then he can spend an off season making adjustments and start next year at High A but get promoted to Biloxi by say June 15. He will then likely hit at Biloxi, and maybe solve the extra base hit issue. He closes next year at Biloxi and then by June 2018, he's ready.

 

While this seems to offend some of you, I doubt there is much in my assessment that Tom Flanagn would disagree with.

[brewerfan82]

Making excuses for your top 5 advanced college bat is unbecoming. His comps are raking. Thars what he should be able to do. Own your pick. You think you got the right guy, let him prove it, which he should do. Lowering expectations and making excuses before he even fails is a negative mentality.

 

When you earn a top five pick for inept suckitude, the fan base wants a payoff with a high end prospect. Drafting a guy and then immediately making excuses for why he may have a slow improvement slope, when all the top college bats the last couple of years have ascended, shows a complete lack of confidence in your guy.

 

The odds of Ray being a slow developer and then trickling up to the majors at age 26 and then being a standout are slim to none. If he's a slow developer, you're looking at a mediocre player. That's not what we drafted at fifth overall. We want our Andrew Benintendi.

 

Unless you want to keep watching the Red Sox compete every year, while we look for our next Kodi Medieros.

I'm not sure I understand what you're suggesting... Are you saying you should force him through the system quickly no matter how he does at each level because that is his only chance to be a star player? I don't think anyone's saying he should move through the system slowly if he shows he can hit at each level, but you seem to be suggesting that even the act of thinking about being cautious in the case that he struggles at a level is somehow going to prevent him from developing into his potential. Are you afraid he's going to read this forum and that's going to cause him to develop more slowly?

 

I just find the stance very strange and stubborn. I want him to be the best player he can be no matter how long it takes or what that ceiling is. The best way to do that is to look at him as an individual player, assess what's best for his development and react accordingly. If he would be a star player forcing him through the system quicker than his performance dictates, then I'm sure he'll still be a star player if we allow him to advance through the system as he performs well at each level as well (and he'll have a better chance of succeeding, and he won't start his clock as soon, and we'll get him for more of his prime years).

[brewerfan82]

Back to the original topic, I think you stay open to all possibilities during the rebuild. However, I think we have plenty of average-to-good prospects, especially on the pitching front, in the system already and trading prospects for other decent, but not great, prospects is probably just spinning wheels.

 

I think we'd need a top 50 type prospect to trade in order to get one back that would actually represent an upgrade in what we have already in the minors and that won't really make sense until we have multiple of those at the same position to trade from. So part of the problem from a trade standpoint (and actually a good thing from a development standpoint) with having a glut of outfielder/middle infield prospects, is that we have more potential spots to put them when they reach the majors. So even if we had three top 50 outfielders or three top 50 middle infielders to trade from, we're probably still better off just holding onto them and using them on our roster. If we had two top 50 first basemen, then we'd have a guy we could throw to another team for an arm, but that's not how we're constructed at this point. Even at that point, I don't think we're going to be able to grab a true ace type from someone's system.

[MKE81]

Santana to 1B? Because he has proven that he is an awesome bat that shouldn't be kept out of the line up. The only prospect that can bring back a top tier pitching prospect is Brinson. All other prospects have flaws. Some will pan out but pitching outweighs fielding and hitting. You build pitching or sign it in free agency. Teams rarely trade pitchers, especially with team control.

 

Santana has proven he has an awesome bat? He's a .224 hitter with 131Ks and a slugging percentage under .400 in 312 career ABs. That's awesome?? He has a ton to prove. He appears to have a decent eye at the plate but he needs to make more consistent contact and hit with more power than he's shown thus far.

 

Brewers may get there, but I'm not seeing this glut of OF. They should have held on to Davis another year at least. His value is much higher now.

 

Briggs, glad you included Santana's career numbers without putting anything into perspective. Obviously his 0-17 stint in 2014 as a 21yr old doesn't affect those overall numbers one bit (heavy sarcasm). Par for the course anything Davis related though.

 

Santana's ability is clear as day, you choose to ignore it. He just needs to stay healthy, which will allow for progression. And no, he doesn't NEED to hit for more power. He'll hit 20HR+ over a full season. The combination of his on-base skills and above average defense/plus arm, while still having power, makes him a solid player contributing in a variety of ways. Unlike Davis who only contributes in one way.

 

Additional points, one doesn't have a "decent eye" at the plate when your OBP is 115pts higher than your BA (same as last year with us too). I don't expect him to keep that high of a difference but his entire minor league career his OBP is 92pts higher than BA so he can definitely be in that 80-100 difference area - which is something you wish every player to have.

 

It's easy to argue against Davis' value being "much greater" this year because his only tool is power. 2013-2016 his HR/AB ratio has been 12.4, 22.8, 14.5, 13.36 (he's been consistent in that regard outside of 2014 - his first full season). His OBP is worse because his walk rate has dropped significantly from last year and is still down from the previous year, his K rate is similar to last year (10K pace difference) and he's DH half the time because he's still a defensive liability (ie arm) and he's now a year older. How exactly has his value gotten "much better"?

 

If you take away the HRs this year you're left with Davis slashing 196/245/490. He's literally useless when he doesn't hit a HR, which is 93% of the time then factor in being a defensive liability. That's the type of all-around player you're drooling over for our NL team. Take away Santana's HRs and 97% of the time he's slashing 214/335/610 being 5yrs younger while contributing defensively. That's a difference of 90 OBP and 120 OPS - that's not just "sometimes" that's 97% of the time. For comparison purposes lets look at Braun's 2015 (all star) season. Take away HRs and 95% of the time he's slashing 247/327/643. Santana will only get better so his numbers will improve. I'll gladly take someone who hovers around Braun's 2015 season vs a Davis type any day. Just food for thought.

 

You're not objective nor willing to comprehend the Brewers organizational situation heading into this year. Santana is a better all-around player than Davis other than his power tool. He's 23yrs old and a RF due to his plus arm. He needs to be played there to see what he can do if he's going to ultimately be part of the future or not (Davis was never part of the future). Having him play CF, which he'll never play for anyone in the future, solely so Davis can play LF is terrible management, which is why it didn't happen. Braun/Santana in the corners hence acquiring Broxton, Kirk, Flores for CF while backing up corners. So, no, we shouldn't have kept Davis this year because there was nowhere for him to play until Santana got injured (nobody has a crystal ball).

 

Regarding the prospects, people need to stop staring at the box scores and developing an opinion based solely on that. Watch them play in person or video of them and you'll see their talent. Brinson's defense alone makes him an every day CF and his other tools will play just fine. Phillips is league average offensively at very minimum with very good defense and a cannon arm. Ray we'll get a better read on as he progresses out of BC. Clark has excellent on-base skills, understanding of the strike zone and hits line to line. One can assume both of them will be corner OF (most likely LF) given the other talent in the org. Broxton is flashing right now so there is a wealth of talent in the OF and half of them will be traded, whether it be as a prospect or as a MLB player with some experience. If everyone gets somewhat close to reaching their potential I personally would keep Clark/Ray, Brinson, Phillips and trade Braun (only if you get an offer you can't refuse), Santana, Broxton and one of Clark/Ray. It's a great situation to have.

 

Ray had a slow July adjusting to pro ball and this month he's raised his BA by 32, OBP by 57 and OPS by 285. He's making the adjustments you'd expect him to make.

[jerichoholicninja]

Making excuses for your top 5 advanced college bat is unbecoming. His comps are raking. Thars what he should be able to do. Own your pick. You think you got the right guy, let him prove it, which he should do. Lowering expectations and making excuses before he even fails is a negative mentality.

 

When you earn a top five pick for inept suckitude, the fan base wants a payoff with a high end prospect. Drafting a guy and then immediately making excuses for why he may have a slow improvement slope, when all the top college bats the last couple of years have ascended, shows a complete lack of confidence in your guy.

 

The odds of Ray being a slow developer and then trickling up to the majors at age 26 and then being a standout are slim to none. If he's a slow developer, you're looking at a mediocre player. That's not what we drafted at fifth overall. We want our Andrew Benintendi.

 

Unless you want to keep watching the Red Sox compete every year, while we look for our next Kodi Medieros.

I'm not sure I understand what you're suggesting... Are you saying you should force him through the system quickly no matter how he does at each level because that is his only chance to be a star player? I don't think anyone's saying he should move through the system slowly if he shows he can hit at each level, but you seem to be suggesting that even the act of thinking about being cautious in the case that he struggles at a level is somehow going to prevent him from developing into his potential. Are you afraid he's going to read this forum and that's going to cause him to develop more slowly?

 

I just find the stance very strange and stubborn. I want him to be the best player he can be no matter how long it takes or what that ceiling is. The best way to do that is to look at him as an individual player, assess what's best for his development and react accordingly. If he would be a star player forcing him through the system quicker than his performance dictates, then I'm sure he'll still be a star player if we allow him to advance through the system as he performs well at each level as well (and he'll have a better chance of succeeding, and he won't start his clock as soon, and we'll get him for more of his prime years).

 

If I remember correctly from the draft thread he was no fan of Ray so it makes sense that he would find any reason to bash him. Especially since the one "making excuses" is not someone from the organization. I don't know how he's doing offhand but Ray's at High A and he's been there for all of two months. I'm sure he's one of only a few (if any) of this year's picks that are playing at that level or higher right now.

[JohnBriggs12]

Stearns traded Sneed, Wagner, and Sardinas last offseason. I think it's a given he'll deal a prospect or two this winter. What I worry about is that Stearns sold low on two youngish controllable veterans, Segura and Davis. Between them, they are 6.3 wins above replacement. It might have been wiser for him to take some time to assess what they had in those two. As good as Villar's been, he's not been as good as Segura, and Davis is on pace for 40 HR and over 100 RBI. Old school stats or not, that's worth more than they got for him.

[MillerParkSouth]

Give me Villar and Isan Diaz over Segura any day of the week.

[reillymcshane]

This could probably go either in the Trade or Minors discussion, but what are people's thoughts on exploring trades for the seemingly crowded outfield that we have in our farm?

 

By my estimates, we have at least 6 outfielders that could be viewed as legitimate outfielders of the future, plus one current very high level player in Braun, so you've got Braun, Broxton, Santana, Ray, Phillips, Brinson, and Clark. If you really want to stretch, you could even add Harrison and Coulter to this list to make 9.

 

Now often these 'problems' solve themselves, and a guy or two on this list are bound to not pan out, but while there's still quite a bit of value in this group, should we be looking at moving some of them now in prospect for prospect trades, or for young MLB players like Villar?

 

Braun is a very obvious trade candidate, but the age, injuries, PED history, contract, and no-trade clause all present obstacles. The thing is, in spite of all those things, he's still a really good player, and we're not just going to give him away.

 

So what about the value of some of the current outfield prospects? One included in a package for a high level pitching prospect might be one path in the much needed quest to rebuild our pitching staff.

I agree with a couple of other posters that you essentially should be open to anything. If someone comes to you and wants to trade for one of our players - whether in the majors or minors - you listen. If the move makes your team better, then go for it.

 

At this time, we should not be worried about having too much of any one position. As you note, these things often work themselves on their own. Also, there's the simple fact that none of our high ranked guys is really ready for the big leagues yet. Brinson is probably the closest - but even he probably could use some more time in the minors after an up-and-down 2016.

 

By next summer, we'll see if Brinson or Phillips or whomever is ready for the big leagues. Then you can better assess Broxton and Santana.

 

Time also just let's the market for Braun emerge (or not). You don't deal him just to deal him, but you keep and open mind. He's too good of a player to just give up - be patient. If a deal comes around - great. If not, just enjoy his bat in the lineup.

[Greenleaf1]

Segura in 2016: 119 OPS+, 27/35 SB, 7 E

Villar in 2016: 118 OPS+, 50/66 SB, 21 E

 

Segura has been steadier on defense, but adjusted for ballpark, their bats have been pretty much the same. They have about the same success percentage for stolen bases, only Villar has almost twice as many. Villar has two more years of control, already this year costs $2M less than Segura, and probably has more room to get better next year than Segura. Segura is also due a big raise next year, while Villar will still be making near the league minimum.

 

Let's say our return for Aaron Hill balances out losing Tyler Wagner. That means essentially we lost Segura but got back a Anderson and Diaz, who's likely to be a top 100 prospect at some point in his minor league career, then we were able to go get Villar for practically nothing to replace most of Segura's production. And that's even with the hindsight that Segura would go off on his own and fix his swing, which who knows if he's even able to do that as a Brewer.

 

Would it be nice to have Segura at 2B right now? Yes, but Villar is a really exciting player that at this point I would take over Segura (especially Segura as he was when we traded him), and while we can only speculate now, opinions might change once Isan Diaz works his way through our system.

[sveumrules]

The odds of Ray being a slow developer and then trickling up to the majors at age 26 and then being a standout are slim to none. If he's a slow developer, you're looking at a mediocre player. That's not what we drafted at fifth overall. We want our Andrew Benintendi.

 

We have very little idea what we drafted at fifth overall as it's far too early to say. No number 5 pick has made it to the majors from the 2011-15 drafts as of yet. If you rewind further you've got...

 

2010: Drew Pomeranz, 2009 Matt Hobgood (never made MLB), 2008: Buster Posey, 2007: Matt Wieters, 2006: Brandon Morrow, 2005: Ryan Braun, 2004: Mark Rogers, 2003: Chris Lubanski (never made MLB), 2002: Clint Everts (never made MLB), 2001: Mark Teixeira, 2000: Justin Wayne.

 

Based on how recent #5 picks have turned out I would expect Ray to never make the majors, be an MVP caliber player or anything in between.

 

I'm sure plenty of Mariners fans thought there was no way they drafted a mediocre player when they selected advanced college bat Dustin Ackley at #2 overall in 2009, but we know now seven years later that is exactly what they did.

[adambr2]

Yup. Such is the nature of the beast in the MLB draft. You've got just as good of a shot at getting a flameout at #5 (if not more) than you do of getting an MVP.

 

He's got a shot at becoming a star, sure, but it's far more likely that he has a Lorenzo Cain career than a Mike Trout.

[Austin Tatious]

It's not really that complicated, as you guys are purposefully making it. But keep pounding your head against the wall. It's entertaining.

[jerichoholicninja]

Stearns traded Sneed, Wagner, and Sardinas last offseason. I think it's a given he'll deal a prospect or two this winter. What I worry about is that Stearns sold low on two youngish controllable veterans, Segura and Davis. Between them, they are 6.3 wins above replacement. It might have been wiser for him to take some time to assess what they had in those two. As good as Villar's been, he's not been as good as Segura, and Davis is on pace for 40 HR and over 100 RBI. Old school stats or not, that's worth more than they got for him.

 

There was another player traded last year who's going to put up a 40/100 season this year while playing subpar defense and posting pedestrian a OBP and all he brought in return was a career AAAA backup catcher. I think Milwaukee did fine.

[adambr2]

It's not really that complicated, as you guys are purposefully making it. But keep pounding your head against the wall. It's entertaining.

 

When you can't come up with a sufficient counterargument to a valid point, just start hurling some insults instead. Good stuff.

[Austin Tatious]

I wasn't directing anything at you Adam, but the people who pretend to be obtuse. My two posts above are self-explanatory and I have no inclination to further expand on something that is already clear. In general, the posters that create straw men, feign misunderstandings, or add meanings that were never said is what I'm responding to. Beyond that, I am fine with agreeing to disagree. There's no reason to get emotional about what others say if it's the slightest bit critical or setting expectations.