Keon Broxton and Exit Velocity

[And That]

At this point, the earliest he could be a FA is 2023, so through the 2022 season.

 

If he's never sent back down, it will be close for Super 2. By my math, he'll have about 130 days service time this year, plus 14 from last year. The cutoff can be on either side of 140 for Super 2.

[MrTPlush]

Rickie Weeks didn't hit his ceiling because of horrible injuries to his wrists and his legs. He was pretty darn good in the early going before that injury in 2011 officially tanked him. The fact he watched a lot of pitches is definitely not a big reason he ended up not being as great as some hoped.

 

Regarding Keon he is similar. A guy who strikes out a ton, but excels in his other offensive skills where it might just make up for all the whiffs. It's going to take a large sample size to really know if he can actually do that. Bringing his hands down made a ton of sense and it has worked out greatly for him. I think we might have a solid CFer on our hands in Keon.

[molitor fan]

Fun with charts....basically Keon has been hitting the ball, even his ground balls harder than anyone in baseball

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard?year=2016&abs=50&player_type=batter

[stoutdude04]

I've been obsessed with Broxton since we got him, so I am thrilled with his recent performance. However, I don't want to get my hopes up. I am excited that we got him for basically nothing...even though a few others may think otherwise.

[homer]

A lot of Weeks underperforming was probably due to injury. Peak Rickie was pretty darn good offensively and he lost one of his prime years almost entirely.

[reillymcshane]

Broxton kind of reminded me of Melvin Upton Jr a bit. Not the .300 hitting version of Melvin who first came up in the big leagues, but the one that settled in as a .240ish, 20 HR, 160+ strikeout, decent number of walks, good speed, type of guy.

 

Both are tall, lean guys that generate a lot of power in their swings.

[MKE81]

Weeks wasn't a 300/380 hitter due to the combination of injuries and exactly what TheBrew07 said. He's a fastball hitter. When he was forced into the leadoff spot and became insanely patient and worked counts he looked at an unbelievable amount of fastballs down the middle that he would have swung at any other point in his career up until then. It's much easier to hit a fastball than a curve/slider and when you put yourself in a position of constantly having to fight for a walk or hit a curve you're not going to reach your potential.

 

Nobody should be shocked by Broxton's performance due to his talent; we've all seen him flash in spring. Lowering his hands is also allowing for greater whip so he's going to increase his already solid power output over his career. Also makes it easier for him to take the ball opposite field. As long as he takes walks he'll steal 50 bases while hitting 20HR.

[homer]

Rickie Weeks didn't hit his ceiling because of horrible injuries to his wrists and his legs. He was pretty darn good in the early going before that injury in 2011 officially tanked him. The fact he watched a lot of pitches is definitely not a big reason he ended up not being as great as some hoped.

 

 

I swear I didn't see this before I posted. Should have just said "ditto".

[TheCrew07]

Not to hijack the thread further but I think is an important concept to explore further.

 

While the injuries didn't help Weeks' career, he still had phenomenal bat speed, no Brewer hit tape measure HRs like he did, even after both wrist issues. I find that to be a convenient excuse and once again a very superficial assessment of Weeks as a hitter.

 

He wasn't selective as I stated earlier, he was predictable and let pitchers get ahead by taking pitches for the sake of taking pitches. Strike 1 was 1st pitch get me over FB, strike 2 was an off speed, and strike 3 could be gotten any number of ways. If you're predictable, you're easy to game against, it doesn't matter if you are a hitter or pitcher, which is why we had to watch Jenkins and Hart (early) flail away at breaking stuff off the outside corner continuously. Weeks just wasn't a good enough hitter to work from behind in the count, and in the Brewers line-up he should have batted 3 or 5 and he would have been much better as a run producer. He was just a good enough dude to do what was asked of him.

 

Instead of forcing pitchers to come to him, too often he'd let them get away with a thigh to waist high FB over the heart of the plate for strike 1. A selective hitter offers at that pitch, he may swing through it or hit it poorly, but that's a pitch that every MLB hitter is capable of crushing someplace, and should offer at. Gomez made a living off that pitch and was predictable the other way, why would you ever give Gomez a 1st pitch FB to swing at? It's the same argument we'd have in the game threads at that time when people would complain about taking pitches for the sake of pushing the SP out of the game (batter X just walked on 4 pitches and you're going to swing at the first pitch?)... that's fine in theory, but even if all of the hitters walk in front of you, it's still absolutely proper to offer at a grooved FB if you get one, and as a hitter that's exactly what you should be looking for, so you can cause some damage. If you hit into a double play so be it, but there's no good reason for letting a pitch like that go by for the sake of taking a pitch. What are the odds of getting another pitch that fat to hit during the same AB?

 

The object isn't to force your way into a walk, you take a walk if it comes, but you're also looking for a pitch you can drive someplace. That's being selective, attacking the proper pitches and letting the rest go by. Certainly a batter will have to protect and swing at some pitcher's pitches on the corner, but I'm saying in general hitting is not about patience, it's about selecting the proper pitch to attack. Which can be a "patient" approach, but that's often confused with taking pitches for the sake of taking pitches, which is not a good strategy to follow.

[homer]

Taking injuries out of the equation it's possible Weeks just didn't have a good eye. I think the easy road is to say that all his flaws were correctable and he was unwilling to change his approach when it's quite possible he simply wasn't as good a hitter as he showed against weak competition in college. From my untrained eye he was always out in front of breaking pitches despite the fact that he did have a quick bat and probably could have waited on them and mashed to the opposite field. To me that says he's just not picking up the spin out of the pitcher's hand.

[Ennder]

There are many reasons for Weeks low average but one that hasn't been commented on yet is his extreme number of popups.

 

For his career he had an IF/FB rate of 12.1%. In 2007 he popped up on an amazing 17.4% of all balls put in the air and he was a pretty heavy flyball hitter at 41.3%.

 

That year he popped out 21 times and struck out another 116 times in 409 AB. So 33% of his AB turned into plays where he was always going to be out. That is what drives the low .287 BABIP that year.

[MillerParkSouth]

I just want to reiterate that I love Keon Broxton and I hope the new Keon is the real Keon. What a find he would be if he turns out to be a Rickie Weeks type player with good defense in CF and speed. Would allow us not to rush Brinson or the other young bucks too.

[3and2Fastball]

Broxton has hit .347/.453/.653 in the last 24 games. So good to see his development

[MrTPlush]

I just want to reiterate that I love Keon Broxton and I hope the new Keon is the real Keon. What a find he would be if he turns out to be a Rickie Weeks type player with good defense in CF and speed. Would allow us not to rush Brinson or the other young bucks too.

 

And then trade him for a haul next offseason.

[Outlander]

Funny how things can change so quickly, don't see AdvantageSchneider talking about Broxton too much anymore.

[monty57]

I just want to reiterate that I love Keon Broxton and I hope the new Keon is the real Keon. What a find he would be if he turns out to be a Rickie Weeks type player with good defense in CF and speed. Would allow us not to rush Brinson or the other young bucks too.

 

And then trade him for a haul next offseason.

 

Broxton allows the Brewers to keep Brinson down to start next year. It also allows the team to get a better view of Santana. If Broxton keeps it up, and if Brinson is as good as hoped, and if Santana proves himself to be a good MLB regular, then it allows us to do something with Braun (trade him or move him to 1B).

 

That's a lot of "ifs," so for right now, I'm happy to see Broxton doing well, and to see Santana healthy. Let the rest play itself out, but I'd highly doubt that Broxton will be traded away if he continues to play well.

[3and2Fastball]

Broxton has made adjustments, but MLB pitchers will adjust back on him soon. It is too early to start planning his participation in future outfields, but the last month has been very encouraging. His athleticism is fantastic

[hurricanecrush]

There are many reasons for Weeks low average but one that hasn't been commented on yet is his extreme number of popups

Nobody mentioned his little league bat. With his strength and bat speed, I would have loved to see him use a bat closer to Braun's. That toothpick he used couldn't have helped him.

[pacopete4]

Weeks inability to even think about adjusting at the plate is something I'll never forget. He was a stubborn player. Even when asked to play some outfield in the later stages, he refused. Like he was some gold glover second basemen.

 

Back to Broxton, Rogers is heading towards AAAA player if not already. This is a trade that could be simply amazing for the Brewers.

[monty57]

Back to Broxton, Rogers is heading towards AAAA player if not already. This is a trade that could be simply amazing for the Brewers.

 

I wanted Rogers to do well, but he's 28 and having a tough season, mostly in AAA. Supak is 20 and having a decent season. Trading Rogers for him straight up may have been a fair trade. Getting Broxton and Supak appears to be a pretty lopsided trade.

 

Sure glad Stearns didn't do what everyone (including me) expected and simply stick Rogers in at 1B to see what he could do. Broxton is looking like a potential break-out candidate, Carter is worth more than we're paying him and gives us a viable option at 1B for a couple years, and we have another promising arm in the low minors. Good job Mr. Stearns.

[gregmag]

Weeks inability to even think about adjusting at the plate is something I'll never forget. He was a stubborn player. Even when asked to play some outfield in the later stages, he refused. Like he was some gold glover second basemen.

 

Back to Broxton, Rogers is heading towards AAAA player if not already. This is a trade that could be simply amazing for the Brewers.

Weeks was asked to switch to lf late in the season, having never played of in his career. It was a stupid idea, and he was right to say no. Say what you want about Weeks as a hitter, but he worked hard, kept his head down, and played the right way. Hell, he could have been a Cardinal if he'd been sanctimonious and white.

[FVBrewerFan]

Weeks inability to even think about adjusting at the plate is something I'll never forget. He was a stubborn player. Even when asked to play some outfield in the later stages, he refused. Like he was some gold glover second basemen.

 

Back to Broxton, Rogers is heading towards AAAA player if not already. This is a trade that could be simply amazing for the Brewers.

 

Broxton has cooled off again the last few games. Jury is still out if he'll ever be more than a AAAA player. Sure, I would still put my money on him over Rogers though.

[adambr2]

I agree the jury is still way out on Broxton and it's far too early to anoint him as any kind of player.

 

That being said, any and every player goes through some '0 for' stretches and I think it's important to see where he goes from here. We knew he wasn't going to stay hot forever.

 

I guess what I'm trying to say is I'm really, really hoping Counsell let's him play through this and continues to give him starts, rather than relegating him back to the bench.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, and if finishes the season at a good clip, why not let him start in CF next season. Even with his highs and lows, I still have more faith in him than a Reed or Wren...or Flores.

 

Only guy to push him will be Brinson. And we'll learn a lot about Mark A's patience with rebuilding based on what he does with Brinson and Hader to start the season. Bringing up Arcia this early is one thing, but if Brinson and Hader start the season in Milwaukee we'll know Mark A is trying to accelerate the clock on the rebuild.

 

(Ok, I know most of that was OT, but I thought of it while I was typing, so just went with it.)

[Greenleaf1]

I thought the general consensus was that the Brewers were going to be able to push the rebuild up a little bit by acquiring some talent that was closer to Major League ready (Brinson, Ortiz, Susac)?

 

They'll call up the players when they're ready. Brinson looks like he's ready. After a rocky start (pun intended), Hader is looking pretty ready at AAA recently.

 

Back on topic, let's say Brinson gets a September call up and impresses, then wins an outfield job to start 2017. Between Broxton and Brinson, who is likely to stay in center and who is likely to move to right field? I'm bad at researching defense metrics, does anyone know who figures to be better in center?