Keon Broxton and Exit Velocity

[molitor fan]

One of favorite stats has become exit velocity over the last year or so that it has become readily available. Last night Keon Broxton had a game that is very unusual in that all 4 of his at bats produced an exit velocity over 100. His at bats clocked in at 103 105 111 and his laser shot of his home run was registered at 115mph.

 

The top bat speed for a home run this season has been Mike Trout's 120mph shot and the fact that he had 4 at bats at an average of 108.5 is freaking astounding. We all know that Broxton has had awful contact issues in the past that still exist in a modified degree. There is a good discussion on him going on in the Gomez thread, but I think it is obvious that this guy is our centerfielder for the near future - we have given him regular playing time and he has blossomed. I think he a bit of Lorenzo Cain in him but honestly Broxton can do things Cain cannot do. Broxton's 17 stolen bases extrapolate out to over 60 in a season and the uniqueness of his bat speed and contact stats need to be recognized

 

It is true that even his recent 58 at bats (a good number to multiply by 10 to dream on full season production) since he has been given regular playing time he has k'd 20 times - a troubling ratio indeed. However, in those 58 at bats he has also hit .400 on 24 hits, scored 11 times, had 9 extra base hits, walked 12 times and had 10 stolen bases with a 1.1 OPS

 

Despite the k's it can be argued that he has had the best plate appearances of any player in baseball over than time frame. Coupled with the hard data that shows he is contacting baseballs at a velocity that others are not matching (when he connects) my short sample analysis makes me very enthused about Broxton.

[igor67]

Well the amount of difference between his 2 half parts of the year is just insane, but the BB has been quite consistent. In this case that is important because it means those 20Ks are over 70 plate appearances, which is high but not historicallly high anymore. The power and speed tools were there before, so it is hard to think he's going to maintain this 1.000 OPS pace, but a streaky .800 OPS with good defense and steals seems pretty doable and quite the value for Jason Rogers

[reillymcshane]

Broxton is hitting .250 after last night's game. Who would have thought that a month ago?

 

.368 OBP, .775 OPS, 17-1 SB/CS ration.

 

The big bugaboo is the strikeouts. His rate is very high. He's been better, but it's still not good. Pre-allstar break he struck out 33 times on 64 ABs. Post-allstar break he's struck out 22 times in 64 ABs. So there's been some improvement of late, but the rate is still very high.

 

Keon has been playing a lot against lefties, so I believe part of the improvement we've seen is the selective ABs he's gotten.

 

But all in all, I love the improvements. It's a good reminder to give guys time. Even guys struggling really badly.

 

Let's hope Broxton just keeps getting better. He's an interesting player.

[sveumrules]

Even if he turns out to be a poor man's Mike Cameron it would be pretty amazing but I'm dreaming of Eric Davis circa 1987.

[jerichoholicninja]

Keon looked like he had no idea how to play baseball his first few times up. His at bats were embarrassing to watch. Results notwithstanding, he seems comfortable and confident at the plate now. A 180 from how he started the year.

[JohnBriggs12]

Give a raise to whoever suggested lowering his hands. He doesn't look like the same guy. If what we're seeing is for real, they have the makings of a very exciting team in 2017. Contenders? Not unless they can improve the rotation dramatically. But the combo of power and speed up and down the lineup will give opponents fits. And to think none of the three breakout performers, Villar, Perez, or Broxton were acquired in major deals.

[MilwaukeesBest]

And to think none of the three breakout performers, Villar, Perez, or Broxton were acquired in major deals.

 

This last point is exactly why I laugh when people say they're not impressed by Stearns or hate what he's doing as GM. Add Guerra to that list as well.

[monkeyman343434]

Keon looked like he had no idea how to play baseball his first few times up. His at bats were embarrassing to watch. Results notwithstanding, he seems comfortable and confident at the plate now. A 180 from how he started the year.

 

This is exactly why I'm glad they brought up Arcia when they did. This will allow them to see what he's got and make adjustments.

[SandyTolan]

Agreed... but Perez was a Melvin guy. Got him after Detroit released him early in the 2015 season.

[Sixto]

I'm still wondering about a part of Broxton's hitting ritual. He leans back several times and also almost looks like he is about to sit down. Of course he straightens back up for the swing, but found it odd and cant figure out the reason. Then I saw that Villar kind of does the same thing. There must be a reason but I'll be darned if I can figure it out

[dlk9s]

I haven't seen it (I rarely get to watch a game, not being in the TV market), but I'm guessing it's just a timing or relaxation thing.

[reillymcshane]

Broxton with another homer. Let's hope he keeps this up.

[MoreTrife]

And another.

[igor67]

More then just a little bit crazy.

[gregmag]

This is making me so happy. I've had an irrational love for Broxton ever since we got him. Seeing him succeed like this is the highlight of my baseball year.

 

A few random thoughts:

 

The Cameron comparison occurred to me too. Broxton is more extreme, a 3TO guy who right now making Russell Branyan look like Juan Pierre. Branyan, for his career, had just over half his plate appearances end in a homer, walk, or strikeout. For this season, Broxton is at 57 percent.

 

Broxton is a great test case for the importance of contact skills. At this point, I think we have good evidence of what he does well: power looks very good, speed looks elite, walk rate looks elite, plus defender. Basically he's good at everything except hitting for contact, which I'm still inclined to think he's very bad at, even though he's improved over the course of the year. Can pitchers get a hitter like that into checkmate by just throwing him good breaking balls near the edge of the zone? We'll see.

 

There's another thread about Counsell, which I've been ignoring because manager threads always seem to produce more light than heat. But in this thread, I'll say that I think Counsell deserves credit for how he's handled Broxton. I know some people have been annoyed that Broxton hasn't played more. But I think getting him the platoon advantage for so many PAs probably helped him get his confidence up. I'll be annoyed if Counsell does anything close to a hard platoon the rest of the way, but I suspect we'll keep seeing a lot of Keon.

 

Bill James made up a stat years ago called secondary average. It's a fun stat, designed to complement batting average. It's (TB - H + BB + SB - CS) / AB. Basically it's supposed to measure a player's rate of accumulating every kind of extra base. The mean tends to end up similar to mean BA, around .250 -.260, but the standard deviation is much higher. Yuni B. had a .163 career SEC. Barry Bonds finished at .606, which I think is the highest ever. Keon's at .492 for the year.

 

I think we have a good sense of what type of player he's going to be; the question is whether he'll be a good enough player of the type to succeed long term. I'm glad he's earned a chance to try.

[adambr2]

I actually see a lot of Rickie Weeks in Broxton. Low average, high OBP, respectable power, lots of walks, tons of strikeouts.

 

Rickie tends to elicit a wide range of reactions from Brewer fans when reflecting on his career, but at his best, he was a really good player. It would not at all be disappointing if Broxton peaked there.

[igor67]

Weeks is an interesting comp, a lot of that mixed reaction though is driven not by his performance it was the scouting build-up, and just watching him play. With as fast as his wrists were and as good at taking walks people expected that he'd be at least a .300 hitter to go with all of the other skills.

[jerichoholicninja]

Weeks was a disaster on defense. Broxton is light years better. If he can hit as good as Weeks did we're looking at one hell of a player.

 

I'll never understand how a guy who's hands were as fast as Rickie's were could constantly take fastballs down the middle of the plate and then flail at breaking pitches out of the strike zone.

[sveumrules]

The Cameron & Weeks comps are interesting since their career lines are very similar, with Keon's recent tear pushing his season line a little ahead of them.

 

Cameron 249/338/444 107 w RC+

Weeks Jr. 247/345/422 107 wRC+

Broxton 250/366/441 116 wRC+

 

If anybody had told me that in April that I'd be more interested in watching Keon than Arcia come August/September I would have been more than a little dubious.

[TheCrew07]

Weeks is excellent example of the difference between patience and selectivity, people will use the words interchangeably, but the concepts have a wide gulf between them.

 

Weeks was patient to a fault as a hitter, often letting the best pitch to hit in his AB go by without offering at all. He didn't reach his ceiling as a hitter because he became obsessed with being a good table setter, fitting into that traditional lead off role. The problem of course was that his natural skill set didn't fit that role, the Brewers forced a square peg into a round hole.

 

The Brewers really didn't care about defensive development at that time but regardless Weeks was never going to spend much time in the minors because he was signed to a MLB contract right out of college. Thankfully those contracts can longer be offered to draft choices but there was added incentive to get Weeks to MLB as fast as possible to maximize his contract value.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Weeks is excellent example of the difference between patience and selectivity, people will use the words interchangeably, but the concepts have a wide gulf between them.

 

Weeks was patient to a fault as a hitter, often letting the best pitch to hit in his AB go by without offering at all.

 

 

Colin Walsh is a good recent example. There's a difference between being patient and simply standing there at the dish with the intention of not swinging.

[markedman5]

All Aboard the Keon Broxton Bandwagon (fangraphs.com)

[madbad2000]

I had a co-worker, knowing I'm a Brewers fan, ask me about Keon Broxton for fantasy baseball. Always a good sign when people are taking notice.

[tmwiese55]

I had a co-worker, knowing I'm a Brewers fan, ask me about Keon Broxton for fantasy baseball. Always a good sign when people are taking notice.

 

I actually just put that question in the Fantasy Baseball thread then saw this. How confident are you guys he maintains high quality play the next 5 weeks? I could use an upgrade at one spot but don't need SBs. Still, he's been like top 15 in the whole league the last month-ish so still better than the blah guys I've been playing in my last slot like a Gardner, Mauer,etc.

[adambr2]

Based on his service time this year, how much control over Broxton are we looking at? Through 2021, or 2022? Is 2019 looking like pre-arby, or Super 2?