Brent Suter's contract selected, will start tomorrow in Seattle

[clancyphile]

There wasn't anything to like about his chances to make it last night. His command would have to be perfect to get MLB hitters out.

 

What made him productive down in the minors? Changing speeds?

 

Control (very few walks) and inducing ground balls (even in last night's start, he had 8 groundouts to 2 fly outs).

 

Honestly, I will see what a larger sample size does. Suter had a rough April in Colorado Springs, then was lights out. In any case, I'd rather pay league minimum for Suter than eight figures for Garza or seven figures for Anderson or Peralta (although Peralta has pitched well since his return from the minors).

[Boomer5]

There wasn't anything to like about his chances to make it last night. His command would have to be perfect to get MLB hitters out.

 

What made him productive down in the minors? Changing speeds?

 

Control (very few walks) and inducing ground balls (even in last night's start, he had 8 groundouts to 2 fly outs).

 

Honestly, I will see what a larger sample size does. Suter had a rough April in Colorado Springs, then was lights out. In any case, I'd rather pay league minimum for Suter than eight figures for Garza or seven figures for Anderson or Peralta (although Peralta has pitched well since his return from the minors).

 

I don't think anyone here is a Garza or Anderson fan. I have no idea why either is here in the first place. Garza is just a relic of the keep it barely competitive Mark A strategy and Anderson never should have been aquired, as he offers no purpose. Peralta I'd rather fight thru his issues because they guy does have talent.

 

I have no problem giving Suter a chance the rest of the year, I was just asking what made him somewhat successful because he doesn't fit the profile of a pitcher who will get guys out up here.

[jerichoholicninja]

After watching Suter last night I just don't see how he can sustain success as a starter in the MLB. That third time around the smacked him around like he owed them money.

 

The third time through was a bunt hit, jam shots, bloopers, and a Cano homer that was hit hard but it was a pitch that was probably off the plate. Not to mention the Brewers defense was brutal through throughout the game. I'm not going to say he pitched well because his control was shaky at best but to say he was hit hard just isn't true.

[trwi7]

The funny thing is that I think his best comparison as a pitcher is Wade LeBlanc who he faced last night. Could eat up a few innings but just doesn't have the stuff that's going to consistently fool or get big league hitters out.

[rickh150]

I was surprisingly encouraged with his start even though he doesn't throw hard, didn't have good control last night, and gave up two dingers.

He was good through 4. He had a lot of bad breaks with jam job hits, bad defense, and no offensive support. CC said that both HR were on breaking balls and that that would be a learning experience, meaning he should stay away from it against power lefties, I gather, at the MLB level. He's earned a few more starts with his stats at AAA alone. Lefties can be craftier, it seems, with less velocity and get away with it at the MLB level. Maybe at his best he can be our version of Mike Caldwell- a lefty who works fast, throw strikes, etc.

[JohnBriggs12]

Jamie Moyer went 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA in 2008 with similar stuff. He had games even that year where he was rocked much like Suter was Friday and if those were the only games you saw, you'd draw the conclusion no way could he survive with that stuff. But he also had 18 quality starts that year. Hitters are totally geared to facing 95 mph heat every night. Having to adjust to a guy like Suter isn't always that easy. Seattle has a very good lineup too and it was in an AL park with no pitchers hitting.

[And That]

Jamie Moyer went 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA in 2008 with similar stuff.

Countless pitchers with similar stuff to Jamie Moyer have done squat.

[reillymcshane]

Jamie Moyer went 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA in 2008 with similar stuff.

Countless pitchers with similar stuff to Jamie Moyer have done squat.

I would say the vast majority of pitchers with similar stuff to Jamie Moyer have done squat.

 

The exceptions to the rule are exactly that - exceptions. They are one in a hundred or one in a thousand or whatever the odds. Everyone else is the rule. To expect a player to be the exception to the rule is wishful thinking. It doesn't mean players like Suter won't succeed in some fashion, but it is difficult and it may take time (and probably some luck) for him to find his role.

[FVBrewerFan]

LOOGY. That is Suter's path to staying in MLB and having any sort of career. Not sure what his splits look like, but doesn't matter because he needs more strike-outs anyhow. Inducing groundballs is nice, but when you call for your LOOGY you usually want him to come in a strike-out a batter or two. He needs to figure out how to do that consistently, or I just don't see how else he fits. Sure, give him more starts this season, why not. I'm talking more long term.

[MrTPlush]

Brent Suter is the kind of guy who is a career minor leaguer who occasionally gets a call up because of an injury etc. His ceiling is probably a below average player no one is sure why he has a MLB job on a consistent basis.

 

I will say his ?slider? is a nice offering at 72mph to throw hitters off a bit, but having a change up speed fastball just isn't going to work. He depends on weak contact and defense to save the day. He will never work as a starter and he isn't exactly what you want in a bullpen arm. When it comes to bullpen arms you want over the top stuff and strikeouts. Brent Suter offers neither of those things. His type of pitching also makes him a worthless asset coming into a jam with less than two outs. You aren't going to call on Suter with less than two outs and people in scoring position because the ball is likely to be put in play and giving up sacrifice flys is not ok for a bullpen pitcher.

 

I give the guy mad props for making it to the top level throwing 86mph, I really do. That being said I hope he soaks it all in because he isn't good enough to get a long term spot.

[CheezWizHed]

I'm than happy to give Suter at least a few (several?) more starts to get a better sample size, but I've long thought the BP was his best spot at the MLB level. Long man, LOOGY, and if he does well, could work up to a setup man or spot starter.

 

I like the guy's results in MiLB level, I just can't see the projectability to succeed as a starter. As others have said, maybe he is an exception like Moyer, but I wouldn't put money on it.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm than happy to give Suter at least a few (several?) more starts to get a better sample size, but I've long thought the BP was his best spot at the MLB level. Long man, LOOGY, and if he does well, could work up to a setup man or spot starter.

 

I like the guy's results in MiLB level, I just can't see the projectability to succeed as a starter. As others have said, maybe he is an exception like Moyer, but I wouldn't put money on it.

 

When you use him for an inning of relief after guys have been looking at mid 90's for a few ABs, he could be quite effective slowing bats down and inducing soft contact. I tend to agree that he'd have trouble against major league hitters trying to get through an order 3 times.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The problem with comparing someone to a guy like Moyer is you're taking someone who's WELL outside the bell curve and saying "well this guy succeeded, so my guy can too". They're outside the curve for some reason. Whether it's athletic ability, or whatever, there's a reason *that guy* ended up being well outside the parameters of what every other minor and major league baseball player did during their career.

 

There's a reason that almost every single 86 mph soft tosser doesn't amount to squat in the bigs, and that's because at that level, most hitters can destroy that kind of pitching. MAYBE Suter can provide some value, or be lightning in a bottle, or whatever. MAYBE he's the next Jamie Moyer, but the chances are like 1 in 100 (or worse). You can't just say "well he's got really good control, so he's the next Jamie Moyer". That's not really how this works. If it was, there'd be a lot more 86 mph soft-tossers in the game with good control.

[monty57]

I don't know how much validity there is to this, but Doug Davis used to say that he needed to keep his FB below "hitting speed" which he said was around 88-89 MPH. He felt that his success came from keeping below this level, and when he got into that level, he got hit hard. If he was right, then if you can't throw in the 90's, you're better off in the mid-80's than the upper-80's. BTW, his average FB velocity was 84.8, and Suter so far has been at 84.6. Moyer's last year was at 77.4.

 

Of course, doing a very quick check of a few lefties, I see that Keuchel (HOU) and Garcis (StL) both sit in the 88-89 MPH range, so maybe Davis was just blowing smoke :-)

 

The moniker "soft tossing lefty" is around for a reason, so I'm sure there are other lefties who have gotten by without fastballs in the 90's, probably moreso in the past then in today's game, but it's not unheard of. The odds may be against Suter, but based on what he's done in the minors, I think he should get a shot to see if he can do anything. That's what rebuilding seasons like this are all about.

[clancyphile]

I think it is too soon to tell what Suter can do.

 

We know he can pitch. One does not just post a 3.50-ish ERA while pitching half the time at Colorado Springs without some talent. Maybe it's not measured in terms of mph on a fastball, but Suter is a talented pitcher, period.

 

He may be the kind of pitcher who runs together a lot of good months, then has a "bad" month in the season. He certainly seems to do reasonably well in just about every role, from starter to middle relief to set-up to LOOGY to maybe even as a closer.

[folly412]

5 2/3 scoreless in the pen after that debut start. And looks like he's settling in. No reason to put a 27 year old back in the minors; put him in the running in the spring, and if he can't crack the rotation he seems like a fine bullpen piece.

[Greenleaf1]

As far as I can tell, Nelson/Anderson both have multiple option years left. Something to consider for next year.

 

Suter's only bad outing was his MLB debut, and it wasn't that bad (didn't they have like 1 hit going into the 5th inning? I know his control was bad and he walked a lot and then he gave up a few homers but that's still not that bad). I know how everyone says he doesn't stand that much of a chance of sticking in the rotation, but he certainly seems like he's earned the right to get an opportunity there after his Colorado Springs performance and his good work so far out of the bullpen.

 

Spring Training is going to be very interesting next year.

[MrTPlush]

Nelson is not going to be optioned. He has had an up and down year, but still shows a lot of promise. Chase Anderson? Sure. I think he will start in the rotation, but if he can't do better he will probably get replaced by one of our bigger pitching prospects if/when they are ready.

 

Brent Suter should be happy if he leaves spring training with a bullpen spot. If he can do that he could be the one to get spot starts or fill in when someone goes on the DL. Prove yourself in that roll and maybe he could get a chance to get a more extended look in the rotation. The thing is we have way better and more exciting options for the rotation that project 100x better than Suter. It's pretty much a steep uphill battle for him no matter the role.

[Greenleaf1]

Nelson has an ERA of 7.83 in his last 7 starts. If he continues to do that poorly and it carries over into next year, he will be optioned just like Peralta/Jungmann were.

 

I agree that the likelihood of Suter getting a spot is not high, but Nelson could certainly be optioned. If Peralta can be, Nelson certainly can be.

 

Any chance that other teams could have interest in Suter similar to Jason Rogers?

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm almost certain the Brewers will deal one of the 6 starters currently in the rotation this winter. I think they'd like that guy to be Garza and it might be possible if he closes out the year strongly. Otherwise, it's likely they'll just find a taker for Anderson in a relatively minor deal or move Nelson to a team like the White Sox who will figure they can get him straightened out.

 

I just don't see Suter in the 6-10 spots in rotation order. I think his niche will prove to be the pen.

[MrTPlush]

Nelson has an ERA of 7.83 in his last 7 starts. If he continues to do that poorly and it carries over into next year, he will be optioned just like Peralta/Jungmann were.

 

Any chance that other teams could have interest in Suter similar to Jason Rogers?

 

He had one bad month. He has an extremely long leash. Obviously if he continues a 8ERA he would be eventually. However that is unlikely.

 

Doubt it. Suter doesn't project well at all. He would have to perform in a big sample size to generate interest. Right now he has no track record and I don't see teams giving up any kind of value for him.

[TheCrew07]

Much of this depends on if they trade a piece this winter and when they pull the trigger with Hader. I'd prefer to start him in AAA so he has more time to work on his control/command.

 

Talent wise I don't believe there's much of an argument to be made about Suter, he's at the bottom.

 

Production wise there's an argument, but for a guy that throws in the mid 80s he's going to face a steep uphill climb, like he has his whole career. The thing that would help him the most would be to slot him between 2 guys that really throw gas, so he's a huge change up to them. That's why he projects better in the pen, because his FB is already the slider velocity of an average FB pitcher, he has instant velocity differential.

 

If you let him start I'm just not convinced that MLB hitters will stay out in front 3 times through the order... Maybe they will because he's enough of a different look, but I have serious doubts.

 

The problem with the Brewers when they had Fiers, Gallardo, and Estrada wasn't the individual talent of the pitchers, it was that they were basically all the same type velocity pitchers, hitters didn't have to ramp up or ramp down from game to game. I think those kind of subtleties in how a rotation is built are often over looked. If Suter is sandwiched between guys pitching 95+ he might just be effective as a starter, of the course the problem with that the Brewers haven't exactly been developing that kind of pitching, getting any pitchers for the rotation has been a win.

[FVBrewerFan]

Doesn't really matter what we think, he will get his chances this month. If he's good enough, he stays on the 40 man next year. He has options left, so at worst he can be one of those back and forth guys when needed.

 

Just have a feeling he can succeed in the pen though. Quick delivery, lefty, soft tosser...just brings something different for an inning that could be tough for hitters to adjust.

[1992casey]

I think those kind of subtleties in how a rotation is built are often over looked.

 

Velocity a good reason why a manager might not line up his 1-2-3-4-5 pitchers in that order to start the season. Lefty-righty might be part of that decision-making process too.

[jerichoholicninja]

Considering the Brewers have zero lefty bullpen options I think he's got a good shot at a spot there.