BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2016 Mid-Season Edition

[MKE81]

I think the modestly large chunk of Stearns players is mostly due to the shiny new toy effect. There are a lot of guys who dropped off below 25 that could push themselves back-up.

This is totally correct.

 

We get excited about new things - it happens every poll. Plus we often get taken with small sample sizes of data. If Lucas Erceg was hitting .250 it's highly questionable he'd be at #12. I look at Orimoloye - people went nuts for him after doing well in Arizona last year. The love wore off pretty quick after another 130 ABs and a .225 BA.

 

I think Brinson would have been the #3 prospect except for his recent tear at AAA. You could even see it in the voting. The voting was opened on Monday, August 1. Brinson's rankings from voters gradually got better over the next week - which coincided with his excellent play at Colorado Springs. Of the first 12 voters, only one person had him ranked #2 or better. Of the last eight voters, all of them had him at #1 or #2 on their lists. So the new guy lit things up for a week and squeaked past Hader for the second spot.

On the entire first page of voting Brinson was either 2 or 3 outside of a few or so who had him 4, 6, 7 (which I personally believe should never have been the case given he's a Top 20 overall across the board even with him struggling at AA - injury could have been major piece to the reason). He was going to be #2 or 3 regardless of his hot start. His overall ranking puts him #2 to begin with. I had him 3 because Hader is a lefty starter who destroyed AA after destroying AFL but thought hard about Brinson going there too.

 

Erceg hitting 250 of course would change his voting because he's new so he's going to be more performance based vs potential. But anyone who's seen him swing and play some defense understands his numbers are there for a reason. He looks the part of a hitter who knows what he's doing at the plate and has made some nice athletic plays at 3b so you see the potential too. Everyone knows Demi is athletically gifted but when you don't perform you don't know what to expect. Reality is the new draft picks and new trades are better prospects than the Demi's of the world who were competing with who for these spots 6 months ago???

 

I understand a previous poster not ranking Kirby or Kodi based on results, especially since Kirbys been injured. I have Kodi ranked late teens only because he's 20 and has the stuff to be very effective in the pen (which I think e should be in) and Kirby ranked at bottom because he'll end up in the pen and due to his age/experience/stuff he can move quick through the org in a pen role and be effective.

[Roderick]

Boy is Clancy going to be mad at me now. When they called up Suter, I went back to see how high I exactly had him on my prospect list. I had totally forgotten him and I was going to slot him at 15.

[clancyphile]

Boy is Clancy going to be mad at me now. When they called up Suter, I went back to see how high I exactly had him on my prospect list. I had totally forgotten him and I was going to slot him at 15.

 

Suter was missed on a lot of ballots.

 

Not worth being angry about.

[reillymcshane]

Keon Broxton has officially graduated off the prospect list with his 130th major league at bat. Keon's highpoint was reaching the #22 spot in our 2016 pre-season poll.

 

http://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/11bcf724ac9f59bb77b775e7e6dd3ca832732d49/c=166-0-1833-1250&r=x404&c=534x401/local/-/media/2016/07/31/GreenBay/B9323155635Z.1_20160731185417_000_G19F5N3AT.1-0.jpg

[reillymcshane]

Jhan Marinez has crossed the 50 inning threshold and is no longer eligible for future Prospect Polls.

[adambr2]

Arcia must be very close to losing his prospect status.

[Outlander]

12 more at bats (not plate appearances) so maybe this weekend.

[reillymcshane]

Arcia must be very close to losing his prospect status.

I was just looking at this yesterday. The cut off is 130 ABs, and Arcia is at 119, so as Outlander noted, should be in the next 3-4 games.

 

I couldn't remember if it was 130 plate appearances or 130 ABs when I was looking. But it is the latter.

 

Arcia has been our #1 prospect since the 2nd poll - mid-season 2014 - when he beat out Tyrone Taylor by a single point. Amazing what can happen to two guys at the exact same spot professionally. Taylor is now #30 on our list. Wow.

[MrTPlush]

Step right in Brinson.

[LouisEly]

Fantastic job. Having taken a turn at this once I know that it takes a bit of time.

 

Just a note, Wang's ERA in his blurb is not correct. That might have been his ERA at AAA at the time (8/10) but the rest of the stats in his blurb are from AA (107 IP, 33 BB, 91 K) where he had a 3.52 ERA.

[FVBrewerFan]

Arcia must be very close to losing his prospect status.

I was just looking at this yesterday. The cut off is 130 ABs, and Arcia is at 119, so as Outlander noted, should be in the next 3-4 games.

 

I couldn't remember if it was 130 plate appearances or 130 ABs when I was looking. But it is the latter.

 

Arcia has been our #1 prospect since the 2nd poll - mid-season 2014 - when he beat out Tyrone Taylor by a single point. Amazing what can happen to two guys at the exact same spot professionally. Taylor is now #30 on our list. Wow.

 

If I'm not mistaken, isn't 10 innings the cut off for 27 year old LH pitchers?

[madbad2000]

Normally, yes. But a little known rule is that if a prospect receives a first place vote in the process they automatically get an additional 10 inning extension, granted that their average fastball velocity is greater than the average speed of a major league change up.

[reillymcshane]

Orlando Arcia has officially hit the 130 AB mark, making him ineligible for the next BF.net Community Top 25. He held the top spot for six consecutive polls. Congratulations to Orlando, and let the speculation for our next top prospect begin.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/images/players/head_shot/606115.jpg

[And That]

Re-looking at the list and thinking about catchers, a little surprised Max McDowell didn't receive any votes. His work behind the plate is evolving, but he threw out 44% of runners, he gets on base, and even stole 21 bases in 24 attempts. I'm guilty of not voting for him as well, but he is one of the more intriguing prospects heading into next season, IMO.

[Mass Haas]

Wisconsin 2B Isan Diaz and closer Nate Griep, Helena 1B Ronnie Gideon --

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2016-minor-league-classification-star-teams/#u77s6guZIojejFc4.97

[MrTPlush]

Re-looking at the list and thinking about catchers, a little surprised Max McDowell didn't receive any votes. His work behind the plate is evolving, but he threw out 44% of runners, he gets on base, and even stole 21 bases in 24 attempts. I'm guilty of not voting for him as well, but he is one of the more intriguing prospects heading into next season, IMO.

 

Being a bit old for your league, slugging .350, and having pretty bad defense as a catcher is not going to garner you many votes. Also I don't have much data to back it up, but I think catcher typically post higher CS% in the lower minors and is declines as they go up. I just don't see him getting to the MLB level. I don't see him ever being more than an average catcher defensively best case scenario and he lacks power entirely. Not really what teams are looking for in a back up catcher.

[pacopete4]

Re-looking at the list and thinking about catchers, a little surprised Max McDowell didn't receive any votes. His work behind the plate is evolving, but he threw out 44% of runners, he gets on base, and even stole 21 bases in 24 attempts. I'm guilty of not voting for him as well, but he is one of the more intriguing prospects heading into next season, IMO.

 

Yeah he has some interesting stats that make him intriguing. I only got to watch him catch one game this year but his framing was rough for a pro catcher. If its not exactly where his target is, he's very loose in the wrists with his glove. Blocking seemed pretty solid and like you mentioned, his caught stealing rate is very good too. Next year should be fun to track him.

[And That]

Being a bit old for your league, slugging .350, and having pretty bad defense as a catcher is not going to garner you many votes. Also I don't have much data to back it up, but I think catcher typically post higher CS% in the lower minors and is declines as they go up. I just don't see him getting to the MLB level. I don't see him ever being more than an average catcher defensively best case scenario and he lacks power entirely. Not really what teams are looking for in a back up catcher.

 

Or, as Perfect Game stated prior to the 2015 draft:

A solid athlete with loose and flexible actions behind the plate, McDowell put together a nice overall year on both sides of the ball while showing off his strong catch-and-throw skills. At the plate McDowell is a righthanded hitter who is capable of putting together quality at-bats and get on base thanks in part to his quality two-strike approach (24 walks, 20 hit-by-pitch, 27 strikeouts). With a short and quick swing and a feel for the barrel, McDowell ended up tied for second on the team with seven home runs while driving in 45 runs.

 

Or, Baseball Draft Report:

McDowell, on the other hand, appears to be one of the nation’s most underappreciated catching prospects. He does the things you’d expect out of any real catching prospect (solid glove, interesting power upside) while also doing the extras (really nice runner for the position, more athletic than most backstops) that make him a legitimate top ten round sleeper.

 

As Brew4U noted (as has TheCrew07 in the past), McDowell still needs work with blocking and framing, but he has the tools and athleticism to advance. "Lacks power entirely" - wow.

[MrTPlush]

"Lacks power entirely" - wow.

 

Care to disagree? He has shown zero power in his time and isn't all that young. Never said he didn't have power potential. I sure am not going to start putting 22 year old catchers slugging .350 on my Top 25 list. Doesn't mean I don't think they have potential. Sometimes players power potential becomes nothing more than that. Sometimes draft scouting reports end up being so wrong you wonder if they were watching the right player.

 

Until he starts showing more promise on defense and starts hitting the ball harder he is not going to get attention. Really the best thing McDowell has going for him is that he isn't a guy who is going to be rushed through the system. He has the time to work on his defense with the T-Rats. He isn't like Nottingham where if his bat starts to show they will likely put him at a different position to get him to the majors. McDowell's offensive ceiling is low enough it likely wouldn't cause the Brewers to rush him on that alone.

 

I think he should be talked about more than he is, but there sure are quite a few reasons why people typically don't talk about him.

[MKE81]

I'll disagree. How does one who "lacks power entirely" still have power potential? Part of having power potential means you possess the ability to hit for (some) power but other aspects of your swing combined with pitch selection, etc need to mature to bring it out. To say someone lacks it entirely means exactly that. That it doesn't exist. Nobody's saying he should absolutely be put on the Top 25 list but he did have a solid year in A ball after being drafted last year out of college - where he had 7HR in 213AB his final season at UConn. He's not bad defensively, just like Nottingham's not bad, but they certainly have work to do to get their potential to come out to where they'd be MLB average if they get to that level at this position (McDowell most likely doesn't but who knows)

[FVBrewerFan]

I noted him in my "players to watch" notes at the end of my Top 25 post. Easiest way to put this, if he put up these same numbers this year in BC, he would have made my list. At that age, in that park, yea he would have been more interesting.

[MrTPlush]

I'll disagree. How does one who "lacks power entirely" still have power potential?

 

Because my definition of "lacks power entirely" might be different than yours.

 

Someone can have power potential without having the ability to hit for power in the present though. Some guys still have to fill out their frame etc.

 

Regarding the power he showed in college it should be noted he did that with a metal bat. That can mean something or not. I know a lot of people were upset with the Corey Ray pick because they thought the power wasn't going to translate. Multiple people mentioned his homeruns specifically being of the wall scraper variety. Now I have no idea what McDowell looked like in college because I didn't watch him much like everyone else here(most likely). College stats can be very misleading so its hard to know how much to buy into those stats. I also don't know if there is a true trend of some players showing power in college and losing a lot of it when they go pro. I figure I hear enough people talk about it there must be something to it right?

 

Of course I am not saying either of these things relate to McDowell. Just pointing them out.

[CheezWizHed]

I started following McDowell pretty early in the season, often noting his stats in the thread about fringe prospects. I forget exactly where I put him in my list, but I had him in the top 30-40 or so.

 

As others have noted, his power seems to be his limiting factor, but a catcher that can hit 270/350 for BA/OBP and good defense is a worthy prospect, despite his 350-ish SLG. At 22, he probably won't add much more, but I keep hoping that his college didn't do much weight lifting and that he does more at the MiLB level.

 

Still, probably our 3rd best catching prospect (Susac, Pina, McDowell) among those that will remain at C. (Sorry Nottingham). Probably neck-and-neck with Feliciano.

[LouisEly]

Re-looking at the list and thinking about catchers, a little surprised Max McDowell didn't receive any votes. His work behind the plate is evolving, but he threw out 44% of runners, he gets on base, and even stole 21 bases in 24 attempts. I'm guilty of not voting for him as well, but he is one of the more intriguing prospects heading into next season, IMO.

I think it's more of a case of so many other quality guys. Just thinking about some of the guys who weren't on my list - Perrin, Coulter, Ventura, Burnes, Supak, Yamamoto, Harber, Feliciano, Webb, Burkhalter... three or four years ago McDowell would have been on the list but the system is really, really deep right now.

 

So Broxton and Arcia get photos when they graduate, but Marinez does not? Where's the love?

[reillymcshane]

 

So Broxton and Arcia get photos when they graduate, but Marinez does not? Where's the love?

More like laziness on my part