BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2016 Mid-Season Edition

[reillymcshane]

#1 ( - ) Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers, Age 22.

.267 BA, .320 OBP, .723 OPS - AAA

1,495 Points (45 1st place votes) - 61 of 61 ballots

Many expected Arcia to explode in hitter friendly Colorado Springs this year, but the young shortstop instead was just sort of ‘meh.’ All that is behind us now that Arcia has been promoted to the Big League club - likely for good. Expect him to be there a long time, even if there are some growing pains - particularly with the bat. Unless he goes into a catastrophic slump or is injured, expect this to be the last Prospect List for the talented Arcia.

 

#2 ( new ) Lewis Brinson, CF, AAA Colorado Springs, Age 22.

.254 BA, .295 OBP, .743 OPS, 12 HR - AA/AAA

1,424 Points (10 1st place votes) - 61 of 61 ballots

Acquired in the deal for Lucroy, Brinson flashes true five-tool ability with superstar potential. After a brilliant 2015 campaign (31 doubles, 8 triples, 20 HR, .332 BA in 100 games), the rangy OF struggled through some injuries this year (shoulder strain) and the results have been middling (low walk rate and BA). On the plus side, Brinson has improved his strikeout rate and is still racking up extra base hits by the bushel. And his quick start at Colorado Springs has no doubt excited Brewer fans. Injuries have dogged Brinson over his short career, so it’s something to keep an eye on.

 

#3 (+2 ) Josh Hader, LHP, AAA Colorado Springs, Age 22.

57 IP, 19 BB, 73 K, 0.95 ERA, 1.000 WHIP - AA

50 IP, 27 BB, 63 K, 5.40 ERA, 1.500 WHIP - AAA

1,415 Points (5 1st place votes) - 61 of 61 ballots

After dominating at Biloxi, Hader has struggled with his control in Colorado Springs. He’s still striking out batters at a high rate, he’s just walking them too often as well. Hader sports a wicked fastball and slider, but needs to improve his other offerings - as well as his control. If he can do that, he has top of the rotation potential - something Milwaukee desperately would like to possess.

 

#4 ( new ) Luis Ortiz, RHP, AA Biloxi, Age 20.

27.2 IP, 6 BB, 28 K, 2.60 ERA, 1.048 WHIP - A+

42.2 IP, 8 BB, 37 K, 3.80 ERA, 1.312 WHIP - AA

1,292 Points - 61 of 61 ballots

A key part of the Lucroy/Jeffress trade with Texas, Ortiz is a big (height and width wise) right hander with a plus fastball and slider and superior command. Still only 20 years old, Ortiz has displayed a mature approach to pitching that has allowed him to cruise through the lower minor leagues (even doing well in the notoriously hitter friendly High Desert). The main concerns for Ortiz are his conditioning, plus some nagging injuries that have dogged him since high school.

 

#5 ( new ) Phil Bickford, RHP, A+ Brevard County, Age 21.

97.2 IP, 29 BB, 110 K, 2.76 ERA, 1.055 WHIP - A-/A+

1,211 Points - 61 of 61 ballots

Twice picked in the 1st round (2013 and 2015), Bickford was acquired for Will Smith at this year’s trade deadline. The tall right hander has mowed his way through the lower levels of the minors to the tune of a 2.62 ERA and 142 strikeouts in 120 innings - all the while not walking many batters. Radar guns have clocked Bickford’s fastball as high as 98 mph. A key for Bickford is maintaining good mechanics, which scouts say can at times get out of synch.

 

#6 (+3 ) Isan Diaz, SS/2B, A- Wisconsin, Age 20.

.280 BA, .363 OBP, .864 OPS, 18 HR - A+

1,176 Points - 61 of 61 ballots

Diaz was a tale of two players between 2014 and 2015. He hit .187 as a rookie, but then exploded last season to win MVP of the Pioneer League by hitting .360 with an OPS of 1.076. After a slow start in 2016, Diaz has started looking like the latter player. He leads the Midwest League in HRs and has bashed out more than 50 extra base hits already this year. He also is second in the league in walks. Diaz’s likely future is at 2B due to a pedestrian arm. BF.net readers have fallen in love with Diaz and bumped him up three spots in the polls - a tough thing to do with all the new talent the organization has acquired.

 

#7 ( new ) Corey Ray, OF, A+ Brevard County, Age 21.

.227 BA, .279 OBP, .598 OPS - A+

1,150 Points - 61 of 61 ballots

Milwaukee’s top pick in the 2016 draft (#5 overall) was aggressively placed at High A ball, and while the results thus far have been nothing special, the Brewers expect a lot from the talented Ray. The left-handed hitting outfielder sports an impressive all around set of skills, but doesn’t have one dominant tool that jumps out. Expect the Brewers to work Ray a lot in CF, a position he didn’t play in college.

 

#8 ( -4 ) Trent Clark, OF, A- Wisconsin, Age 19.

.245 BA, .357 OBP, .756 OPS - A+

1,094 Points - 61 of 61 ballots

The biggest issue for Clark in 2016 has been staying on the field. The Brewers top pick in 2015, Clark has missed time with various injuries, in particular hamstring issues. Those injuries have robbed him of some of his speed this year (only 1 SB this after 25 in 2015). Still, there’s a ton to love. Of his 35 hits, 16 have been for extra bases. Plus, he walks a ton (his career walk rate is over 15%), making him a potential on base machine. Clark has battled a high strike out rate since becoming a pro, perhaps a sign he’s being too patient at the plate. He has played mostly CF this year, but long term he is expected to move to LF due to a weak arm.

 

#9 ( -7 ) Brett Phillips, CF, AA Biloxi, Age 22.

.223 BA, .318 OBP, .712 OPS - A+

1,090 Points - 61 of 61 ballots

2016 has been a disappointing year for Phillips with his batting average dropping into the .220s and his strike out rate north of 30%. On the positive side, the power Phillips flashed in the lower majors has re-emerged, and he’s taking walks (11.9%). Perhaps Phillips is worrying too much about hitting home runs, but whatever the reason, he’ll need to re-establish his hit tool (which may have been overpraised after his success in some hitter-friendly venues) going forward. His speed and powerful arm should play in CF or RF.

 

#10 ( +8 ) Marcos Diplan, RHP, A+ Brevard County, Age 19.

70 IP, 32 BB, 89 K, 1.80 ERA, 1.157 WHIP - A-

25.1 IP, 13 BB, 23 K, 4.62 ERA, 1.62 WHIP - A+

894 Points - 60 of 61 ballots

The skinny teenager can bring the heat. Diplan was impressive in the first half of 2016, striking out 89 batters in just 70 IP at Wisconsin. A bump up to Brevard County has seen Diplan cool off, but people are taking note of his solid three pitch arsenal and improving fastball - as Diplan’s eight spot rise in our Top 25 attests. For Diplan, it’s about improving his control. Over his career, he’s walked 101 batters in 204.2 IP. He’s still only 19, but if he can continue to make strides expect big things from the young man.

 

#11 ( -1 ) Cody Ponce, RHP, A+ Brevard County, Age 22.

50 IP, 10 BB, 51 K, 3.96 ERA, 1.24 WHIP - A+

855 Points - 61 of 61 ballots

Snagged in the 2nd round of the 2015 draft, Ponce has impressed with a solid arsenal of pitches and good control (only 19 walks in 101 IP for his career). Arm fatigue set Ponce back earlier this year, but he’s been slowly rounding into form. He has been a little inconsistent, but has flashed moments of brilliance as well. A big man (6’6” and 240 lbs), the Brewers see Ponce as a workhorse starter down the road. As and advanced college pitcher, don’t be surprised if Ponce is pushed hard by the organization as they move him up the ladder as well as try and build up his work load.

 

#12 ( new ) Lucas Erceg, 3B, A- Wisconsin, Age 21.

.400 BA, .452 OBP, 1.005 OPS - Helena

.307 BA, .346 OBP, .866 OPS - A-

767 Points - 60 of 61 ballots

Hitting .361 between the Pioneer and Midwest League, Erceg won over BF.net voters with his dynamic professional debut. Erceg was viewed a power bat coming out of college, and his 21 extra base hits in only 45 games are proving them right thus far. The Brewers hope the improved BA is a sign of things to come. With 12 errors already, Erceg will need to improve his fielding if he is going to stick at the hot corner, but if he can, Brewer fans no doubt see him as the club's 3B of the future.

 

#13 ( +29 ) Brandon Woodruff, RHP, AA Biloxi, Age 23.

44.1 IP, 10 BB, 49 K, 1.83 ERA, 0.970 WHIP - A+

81.2 IP, 22 BB, 88 K, 2.98 ERA, 1.053 WHIP - A+

734 Points - 61 of 61 ballots

Talk about getting everyone’s attention. The tall righty from Mississippi State has improved in just about every statical category that you can imagine. He’s lowered his walk rate, increased his strikeout rate, lowered his ERA and WHIP and kept the ball in the park - it’s added up to a breakthrough performance for Woodruff. Scouts are reporting Woodruff’s fastball clocking in as high as 98 mph. Fans have embraced his successful season, catapulting him into the 13th spot in our poll - up 29 slots from the pre-season poll.

 

#14 ( -11) Jorge Lopez, RHP, AA Biloxi, Age 23.

94.1 IP, 64 BB, 86 K, 6.60 ERA, 1.97 WHIP - AA/AAA

650 Points - 57 of 61 ballots

No player in the Brewers minor league system collapsed like Lopez has done this year. Lopez’s control abandoned him at AAA - 55 walks in 79 IP and batters just teed off on him. He is back at AA in an attempt to resurrect his season. For Lopez, it’s about righting the ship and getting back to the player he had emerged as last season. 2016 has been a nightmare, so we can only hope it is an anomaly.

 

#15 ( -8 ) Gilbert Lara, SS, Helena, Age 18.

.228 BA, .287 OBP, .589 OPS - Helena

628 Points - 58 of 61 ballots

Milwaukee’s 2014 international bonus baby has all the tools to be a special player, but at only 18, he’s struggling to put thing together. In Lara’s defense, the Brewers have been very aggressive with his placement - and he may need to just slow down and let his game develop at his own pace. For now, Brewer fans are just going to have to be patient with the talented, but very raw, Lara. Expect Lara to be moved off SS in the near future.

 

#16 ( +24 ) Freddy Peralta, RHP, A+ Brevard County, Age 20.

60 IP, 24 BB, 77 K, 2.85 ERA, 1.15 WHIP - A-

16.1 IP, 11 BB, 13 K, 4.41 ERA, 1.78 WHIP - A+

552 Points - 60 of 61 ballots

Acquired last winter in the Adam Lind deal, Peralta vaulted up the BF.net rankings after carving up hitters at Wisconsin, allowing only 45 hits in 60 IP while striking out 77. The outstanding performance led the Brewers to promote him to Brevard County. Peralta sports a good fastball and several other solid offerings. His command can leave him at times, but that’s not unusual for someone who just turned 20.

 

#17 ( -11 ) Jacob Nottingham, C, AA Biloxi, Age 21.

.231 BA, .293 OBP, .622 OPS - AA

551 Points - 60 of 61 ballots

After a stellar 2015 season, the Brewers acquired Nottingham for OF Khris Davis. Although he just turned 21, the Crew moved Nottingham to AA where he has struggled with the bat in 2016. Scouts are mixed on Nottingham’s chances of remaining at catcher, but the Brewers will give him every chance to stay behind the plate as there is no certainty that his bat will play at 1B (the likely destination for Nottingham if he is moved). The poor season at the plate, plus some uncertainty about his ultimate position, caused Nottingham to drop significantly in the latest Top 25 poll.

 

#18 ( -9 ) Kodi Medeiros, LHP, A+ Brevard County, Age 20.

76.1 IP, 51 BB, 60 K, 5.19 ERA, 1.86 WHIP - A+

397 Points - 53 of 61 ballots

With he move to the pitcher-friendly FSL, many though Medeiros would thrive with his electric fastball and wipeout slider. Instead his control has abandoned him resulting in gobs of walks and hits allowed. That has led to a deep plummet in the BF.net Top 25 poll. Like so many young pitchers, controlling his pitches is Medeiros’ challenge. If control continues to be an issue for Kodi, a move to the bullpen may be in his future.

 

#19 ( -7 ) Devin Williams, RHP, A+ Brevard County, Age 20.

72.1 IP, 34 BB, 74 K, 3.61 ERA, 1.355 WHIP - A-

396 Points - 53 of 61 ballots

I seem to write the same thing about Williams every year. He strikes out a batter an inning, limits HRs, posts solid, but not spectacular results, shows some control issues. The same has been true in 2016, as his numbers are similar to last season. Williams didn’t begin the season until mid-May due to a shoulder injury, but has progressed enough that he was recently bumped to Brevard County. A talented young man, Williams has all the tools to succeed - he just has to bring things altogether.

 

#20 ( -9 ) Monte Harrison, OF, A- Wisconsin, Age 21.

.216 BA, .287 OBP, 648 OPS - A-

318 Points - 50 of 61 ballots

Harrison shook off a slow start this season (sub .200 BA in April/May), and caught fire in June, posting a .321 BA and hitting five HR. Unfortunately, he broke hamate bone in his left hand and was sidelined (he is scheduled to return to action this month). A raw and talented player, Harrison tantalizes with his athletic skills. The most important thing for him is to simply stay on the diamond and refine his game. Unfortunately, injuries have cost him significant parts of 2015 and 2016.

 

#21 ( -1 ) Jake Gatewood, 3B, A- Wisconsin, Age 20.

.241 BA, .264 OBP, 649 OPS - A-

292 Points - 51 of 61 ballots

Jake Gatewood is a work in progress. A tall kid with plus power, he’s worked hard to adjust to the pro game. The results have been mixed, but the Brewers are willing to be patient with Gatewood. While his numbers aren’t anything special, he is 10th in the HRs in the Midwest League while he ranks 11th in doubles. In addition to working on his hit tool, Gatewood will need to improve his walk rate, which fell this season.

 

#22 ( new ) Corbin Burnes, RHP, A- Wisconsin, Age 21

27 IP, 11 BB, 30 K, 1.67 ERA, 1.07 WHIP - A-/A+

225 Points - 42 of 61 ballots

Burnes surprisingly fell to the Brewers in the 4th round of this year’s draft. A college pitcher, he has quickly acclimated himself to pro ball, his exceptional fastball eating up hitters at Wisconsin and Brevard County (small sample size alert). Scouts say Burnes will need to keep working on his secondary pitches as he moves forward, but they like his fastball/slider combo.

 

#23 ( -8 ) Demi Orimoloye, OF, Helena, Age 19.

.225 BA, .305 OBP, .631 OPS - Helena

215 Points - 42 of 61 ballots

After a nice debut last year in Arizona, Orimoloye has found Helena a little more difficult with his power and batting average falling significantly. On the plus side, Orimoloye has greatly improved his walk rate (from a paltry 2.1% in 2015 to 9.9% this season). And we can’t forget that the man is still very young and very raw. He has great physical tools, but Orimoloye will need time to refine his hitting, so we will need to be patient.

 

#24 (-5 ) Nathan Kirby, LHP, IR, Age 22.

191 Points - 36 of 61 ballots

Recovering from TJ surgery, Kirby has been sidelined all of 2016. Expect him back in 2017. With the infusion of arms into the system, the Brewers will not need to rush the talented lefty. Kirby was the 40th overall selection in the 2015 draft.

 

#25 (tie) ( +2 ) Miguel Diaz, RHP, A- Wisconsin, RHP, Age 21.

78.2 IP, 25 BB, 74 K, 3.66 ERA, 1.118 WHIP - A-

99 Points - 26 of 61 ballots

Welcome to the Top 25, Mr. Diaz! After showing glimpses of dominance in Rookie ball, Diaz has had a solid first year at full season Wisconsin. He’s struck out almost a batter per inning and limited baserunners. Diaz has a plus fastball and an emerging slider, however he’ll likely need to develop his other pitches if he is to stay as a starter.

 

#25 (tie) ( +8 ) Wei-Chung Wang, LHP, AAA Colorado Springs, Age 23.

107.1 IP, 33 BB, 93 K, 6.65 ERA, 1.258 WHIP - AA/AAA

99 Points - 16 of 61 ballots

Since his disastrous season in Milwaukee in 2014, former Rule 5 pick up Wang has slowly and steadily moved up the minor league ladder, providing a solid, consistent performance at each stop. His numbers aren’t particularly sexy, but if he can continue his development, he’ll be back in Milwaukee at some point. Wang was promoted to Colorado Springs on August 9.

 

The Rest:

 

Brent Suter - 93 points

Michael Reed - 84

Keon Broxton - 60

Jon Perrin - 57

Tyrone Taylor - 53

Braden Webb - 46

Jacob Barnes - 29

Mario Feliciano - 24

Kyle Wren - 23

Joantgel Segovia - 22

Garrett Cooper - 19

Troy Stokes - 17

Chad McClanahan - 14

Mitch Ghelfi - 12

Clint Coulter - 10

Jorge Ortega - 9

Damien Magnifico - 8

Taylor Williams - 6

Angel Ventura - 6

Aaron Wilkerson - 5

Adrian Houser - 3

Franly Mallen - 3

Garin Cecchini - 3

Nate Orf - 3

Jordan Yamamoto - 2

David Denson - 2

Dustin DeMuth - 1

Zac Brown - 1

Wendell Rijo - 1

 

All statistics and the players ages are as of August 10, 2016.

 

Here’s a link to the voting thread: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=34367

[reillymcshane]

The 2016 Mid-Season BF.net Community Top 25 is complete. We had amazing participation - 62 ballots - shattering the old record, which was 36. Thanks very much for everyone’s input.

 

Orlando Arcia captured 45 of the 61 1st place votes as he nabbed the top spot again. He was followed by newcomer Lewis Brinson with 10 1st place votes, then Josh Hader with five 1st place votes. Brent Suter received the final top vote.

 

Newcomers: Brinson, Ortiz, Bickford, Ray, Erceg, Woodruff, Peralta, Burnes, M. Diaz and Wang (re-entery)

Exited the Top 25: Davies (graduated), Reed, Taylor, Coulter, Houser, Broxton, Rivera, Cecchini, Liriano

Number of ballots: 61

Number of players on ballots: 55

Mr. Irrelevant (1 point): Rijo, Brown, DeMuth

Risers: Woodruff (29 spots), Peralta (24 spots), Wang (8 spots), Diplan (8 spots)

Fallers: Coulter (29 spots), Houser (27 spots), Cecchini (26 spots), Taylor (15 spots), Lopez (11 spots), Nottingham (11 spots), Medeiros (9 spots), Harrison (9 spots), Orimoloye (8 spots), Broxton (8 spots), D. Williams (7 spots), Phillips (7 spots), Reed (6 spots), Rivera and Liriano (dropped completely off the list)

 

If you see any mistakes, please let me know. I will update as needed.

 

We'll plan on doing a new list after the season.

[reillymcshane]

Notes from this year's mid-season poll:

 

- All opinions in the write ups are my own.

- Statistics cited are often broken out between leagues, but sometimes I just combined things if I thought it was okay. Again, just my decision.

- A lot of new players meant a lot of guys dropping in the polls.

- 61 ballots was the most we have ever had - crushing the previous high of 36. I think it goes to show how interested people are about the minor league system - and (hopefully) the excitement that the young guys will eventually bring to Milwaukee.

- We had a tie for 25th spot - Wang and Diaz - so both are included.

- We had two players - Rivera and Liriano - go from the Top 25 to not receiving a single vote. This has never happened, if I recall correctly. And we almost had others - Houser and Cecchini as well.

- Coulter and Taylor represent huge fails - both were former top 3 players. Taylor came within one point of Arcia for the top spot in the 2014 mid-season poll.

- There's a lot of very young players on our list. I'll take that as a good sign.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Stearns has been GM for less than 1 year yet is responsible for bringing in 9 of the top 25, including 5 of the top 7. Could add another also if PTBNL from Rangers is as good as we hope.

 

Don't know if that says more about him or Melvin.

 

Can't wait to see where we are next yr. with another offseason, draft and trade deadline.

 

Go David, Go David...

[heresrobin]

Buddy Reed went to Florida, right? I don't think he was a teammate of Corey Ray's. Unless they played together on some USA team or something...

 

I think Demi Orimoloye's OPS is wrong too.

 

Thanks for doing all of this reillymcshane. Much appreciated.

[reillymcshane]

Buddy Reed went to Florida, right? I don't think he was a teammate of Corey Ray's. Unless they played together on some USA team or something...

 

My bad. I corrected. For some reason I was thinking they were teammates. I don't know who played CF next to Ray, but I'll assume he wasn't too bad.

 

I think Demi Orimoloye's OPS is wrong too.

 

Thank you. I fixed. Lots of cutting and pasting going on. I missed updating that one. I'm sure there are a few others as well. It gets blurry after a while.

 

Thanks for doing all of this reillymcshane. Much appreciated.

 

You're welcome.

[igor67]

I think the modestly large chunk of Stearns players is mostly due to the shiny new toy effect. There are a lot of guys who dropped off below 25 that could push themselves back-up.

[reillymcshane]

I think the modestly large chunk of Stearns players is mostly due to the shiny new toy effect. There are a lot of guys who dropped off below 25 that could push themselves back-up.

This is totally correct.

 

We get excited about new things - it happens every poll. Plus we often get taken with small sample sizes of data. If Lucas Erceg was hitting .250 it's highly questionable he'd be at #12. I look at Orimoloye - people went nuts for him after doing well in Arizona last year. The love wore off pretty quick after another 130 ABs and a .225 BA.

 

I think Brinson would have been the #3 prospect except for his recent tear at AAA. You could even see it in the voting. The voting was opened on Monday, August 1. Brinson's rankings from voters gradually got better over the next week - which coincided with his excellent play at Colorado Springs. Of the first 12 voters, only one person had him ranked #2 or better. Of the last eight voters, all of them had him at #1 or #2 on their lists. So the new guy lit things up for a week and squeaked past Hader for the second spot.

[Jose Cardenal1]

I think the modestly large chunk of Stearns players is mostly due to the shiny new toy effect. There are a lot of guys who dropped off below 25 that could push themselves back-up.

 

I disagree on two fronts.

 

1) 9 (likely 10) of 25 over 10 mos. is not modestly large. It is large. Period.

 

2) Agree movement (mostly down) from Melvin guys helped make Stearns guys look better but looking at "The Rest" I see just as many Stearns guys who could sneak into the next top 25 as I do Melvin guys.

 

I was expecting an argument about Stearns having ammunition (assets willing to trade) that Melvin didn't. I was not expecting an argument discounting the amount of talent Stearns has added in a short time.

[splitterpfj]

Honestly, most of the best talent did not come through the draft, most of it came through trades, plus the one guy we've picked in the top ten in recent memory. Both GMs traded for a good amount of young talent, once the "We Will Rebuild" decision was made.

 

The farm system fell because the team kept trying to win at the MLB level, dealing out prospects for veterans, and simultaneously, Bruce Seid didn't hit on enough of his early picks.

 

Beginning with the hiring of Ray Montgomery, I expected the young talent to begin improving, and naturally, when you're dealing away big league talent for minor league talent .... you would expect the minor league talent to become much better.

 

In any case .... choose who you love or hate, I'm just happy the team decided to reboot.

[FVBrewerFan]

I could quibble here and there, as we all could, but overall I think we did a good job here. I can live with this list.

 

Lots of guys on this list with either bad years or draftees from 2016, so list consists of a lot of guys with more potential than results. In fact, I put exactly half in that category 13/26.

 

Also, 14/26 are pitchers.

[Eye Black]

I think the modestly large chunk of Stearns players is mostly due to the shiny new toy effect. There are a lot of guys who dropped off below 25 that could push themselves back-up.

This is totally correct.

 

We get excited about new things - it happens every poll. Plus we often get taken with small sample sizes of data. If Lucas Erceg was hitting .250 it's highly questionable he'd be at #12. I look at Orimoloye - people went nuts for him after doing well in Arizona last year. The love wore off pretty quick after another 130 ABs and a .225 BA.

 

I think Brinson would have been the #3 prospect except for his recent tear at AAA. You could even see it in the voting. The voting was opened on Monday, August 1. Brinson's rankings from voters gradually got better over the next week - which coincided with his excellent play at Colorado Springs. Of the first 12 voters, only one person had him ranked #2 or better. Of the last eight voters, all of them had him at #1 or #2 on their lists. So the new guy lit things up for a week and squeaked past Hader for the second spot.

I can only speak for myself, but in my mind Brinson was the clear cut #2 prospect in the system the day we traded for him. The way I sized up the top 10 prospects in my rankings was their projected ceilings to become elite players as well as evaluating, "would I trade player X for player Y in a one-for-one swap?" For me there isn't a player in the system outside of Orlando Arcia that I wouldn't have traded to acquire Lewis Brinson, thus the #2 ranking. I am not claiming that newness, recency bias, and small sample sizes don't impact our rankings (including my own), but I will say that the guys that were acquired are legitimate top prospects with higher ceilings than the majority of the players already in the system.

[CheezWizHed]

I was on vacation the last week and not paying attention to the stats (but watching the trade updates). But as I said in another thread, I see the floor of Arcia and Brinson about the same (great D in SS/CF and league average hitting for their position). But I see Brinson's offensive upside as much higher than Arcia (say 900 vs. 850 OPS peak).

[Austin Tatious]

Great job by Reilly organizing, shepherding, and calculating the results. Many thanks.

 

It is not my list but I like the concept of collective wisdom. I'd consider this collective list favorably over any media lists out there.

[clancyphile]

I could quibble here and there, as we all could, but overall I think we did a good job here. I can live with this list.

 

Lots of guys on this list with either bad years or draftees from 2016, so list consists of a lot of guys with more potential than results. In fact, I put exactly half in that category 13/26.

 

Also, 14/26 are pitchers.

 

I wonder if leaning towards potential as opposed to results isn't a mistake.

 

It's why I did not have Kirby or Meideiros on my list at all (just not seeing the results), and it's why I have Suter at the top. Suter's results over the last two years, particularly at Colorado Springs, just speak louder than the potential of some players.

[TigerUppercut]

I could quibble here and there, as we all could, but overall I think we did a good job here. I can live with this list.

 

Lots of guys on this list with either bad years or draftees from 2016, so list consists of a lot of guys with more potential than results. In fact, I put exactly half in that category 13/26.

 

Also, 14/26 are pitchers.

 

I wonder if leaning towards potential as opposed to results isn't a mistake.

 

It's why I did not have Kirby or Meideiros on my list at all (just not seeing the results), and it's why I have Suter at the top. Suter's results over the last two years, particularly at Colorado Springs, just speak louder than the potential of some players.

 

Ben Hendrickson was just one in a long line of guys that had "results" coming up. I think we need to keep in mind that the "results" we're referring to here come during what is essentially practice.

[igor67]

Hendrickson is probably not the best example of a results oriented prospect he did have an outstanding curve ball, so there were some tools there.

[zjl3]

Demi and Kodi should say out of 61 ballots, not 55 ballots

 

Also, Diplan is no longer with Wisc.

 

Otherwise great job writing up the list as always

[reillymcshane]

Demi and Kodi should say out of 61 ballots, not 55 ballots

 

Also, Diplan is no longer with Wisc.

 

Otherwise great job writing up the list as always

Thanks for the catch. I've updated.

[rwa12]

I think you have to balance results with potential. Suter is a bit of an unknown on how well his stuff will work in the majors. Players have had success with a fairly limited toolbox, but intelligence/pitchability, but the margin for error is slim. The AAA level is where it is most dangerous, IMO, as some guys are always going to be AAAA players. At the lower levels, they should be working on adjustments, so I look for improvement, rather than consistent results. Part of the reason I'm so excited for Isan Diaz, his progression is really intriguing. If he continues at this pace, the sky is the absolute limit for him offensively. While he may not be a SS longterm, owning a prime prospect at a lesser position has it's advantages.

[Mass Haas]

Miller Park Prospects posted their Top 40 four days ago.

[Outlander]

Miller Park Prospects posted their Top 40 four days ago.

Different order but same top 25, with the exception of Wang who they do not include as a prospect due to his year service time.

[Mr Southpaw]

I could quibble here and there, as we all could, but overall I think we did a good job here. I can live with this list.

 

Lots of guys on this list with either bad years or draftees from 2016, so list consists of a lot of guys with more potential than results. In fact, I put exactly half in that category 13/26.

 

Also, 14/26 are pitchers.

 

I wonder if leaning towards potential as opposed to results isn't a mistake.

 

It's why I did not have Kirby or Meideiros on my list at all (just not seeing the results), and it's why I have Suter at the top. Suter's results over the last two years, particularly at Colorado Springs, just speak louder than the potential of some players.

 

Ben Hendrickson was just one in a long line of guys that had "results" coming up. I think we need to keep in mind that the "results" we're referring to here come during what is essentially practice.

 

Positive Results = Potential + Positive Performance

Negative Results = Potential + Negative Performance or Negative Results = No Potential + Negative Performance

Potential = Potential

 

Suter falls into the first category. He may not have gobs of potential, but he does have stellar performance. He has a 3.5 era in Colorado Springs. Name any other starter other than Davies that can say that. Suter deserves a September call up and at least a shot at being a MLB LOOGY next year.

 

I will take performance over potential 7 out of 10 times.

[clancyphile]

Ben Hendrickson was just one in a long line of guys that had "results" coming up. I think we need to keep in mind that the "results" we're referring to here come during what is essentially practice.

 

Positive Results = Potential + Positive Performance

Negative Results = Potential + Negative Performance or Negative Results = No Potential + Negative Performance

Potential = Potential

 

Suter falls into the first category. He may not have gobs of potential, but he does have stellar performance. He has a 3.5 era in Colorado Springs. Name any other starter other than Davies that can say that. Suter deserves a September call up and at least a shot at being a MLB LOOGY next year.

 

I will take performance over potential 7 out of 10 times.

 

I view performance as one of the best indicators of potential.

[Crash2303]

At the lower levels, they should be working on adjustments, so I look for improvement, rather than consistent results.

 

it could just be my perception, but has anyone else noticed that there seem to be quite a few prospects in the system who have regressed this year, particularly those who are repeating a level or completely fell off at the next level up? if that is the case, what are the reasons for that? coaches? confidence? polluted water?

 

off-hand, I think of Denson, Houle, B. Diaz, McFarland, Houser, Reed, Lopez, Sharkey, Coulter, Phillips, Roache, Taylor.

 

Not including guys who haven't shown much improvement from last year, but are still young for the level and/or have come from other organizations, like: Orimoloye, Lara, Derby, Nottingham, Rijo, Betancourt