2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster

[CheeseheadInQC]

When's the last time a team had multiple obvious rule 5 stashes?

Last year the Padres made four Rule 5 selections. They ended up keeping one all year (Perdomo) and traded for another to keep him in the organization (Blash). The other two (Martin/Smith) were returned to their original organizations.

 

Detroit kept 3 all year back in 2003.

 

I was talking guys who were clearly a couple years away from being big league ready. I think the rest of the Padres picks last year besides Perdomo and all three of the Tigers picks that year had at least hit AA.

[Mass Haas]

Detroit kept 3 all year back in 2003.

 

Wikipedia:

 

The 2003 Detroit Tigers lost more games than any other team in American League history and came within one loss of tying the 1962 New York Mets for the most losses in modern major league history. The team's record was 43-119, giving them a .265 winning percentage, and broke the Philadelphia Athletics' 1916 American League record of 117 losses. They were outscored by 337 runs over the course of the season (928 to 591) and finished 47 games behind the Minnesota Twins. Blame for the dismal season was shared by both the pitching staff, which had an ERA of 5.30, and the batters, who finished with a team batting average of .240—19 points below the American League's .259 batting average.

[LouisEly]

My issue with saying that Diaz is only in A-ball, so it might be wasting a roster spot for a few years and he may run out of options, is that it gets into predicting the future a little too much. It is not unreasonable to expect a guy as talented as Diaz (whose future scouting grade ranges from about 45-60, depending on who you listen to) to spend part of next year in A+ and part of next year in AA, should things click. Once a player is at AA, the trip between there and MLB can be relatively short. And I'm not predicting that would happen, but Diaz being up in 2018 or 2019 is just as plausible as Diaz being out of options in spring training of 2020.

 

Keeping Goforth (who was on the 40-man at the time) at the expense of losing Diaz still strikes me as a weird move that has considerably more downside than upside.

Totally agree with point #2. As for point #1, it can be a short trip from AA to the majors, but how many of those players - or any player who makes the majors - end up playing well enough that they stay there and don't get sent down? I don't know, but I'd guess it is the minority, except for likely the elite players of the game. For most it is an adjustment and they don't fare well the first time, needing to get sent back down for a while to work on adjustments.

 

The point is that if he isn't good enough to stick the first time around he can't be sent down without being exposed to waivers if he's out of options.

 

I'm not sure how old he was when he was signed, but I don't think it does these international kids any favors to let them sign when they are 16. I personally think, given the adjustments of coming to America and learning the language/culture here, they should get an exemption for one season in the DOSL to start that clock a little later. You get situations like this - and if you look at the top players available in Rule 5 many of them were international signees - where teams have to protect them before they are ready.

[patrickgpe]

my 2 cents:

 

the rule V draft is very easy to get worked up over, because its been a relatively quiet off season, and fans want to discuss something, but in actuality there is a good chance that the draft results in a zero net loss. The brewers have had or lost a significant rule V draftee. Odds are that losing a 22 year old who is in low A ball is not going to hurt them at all.

[JohnBriggs12]

Diaz was a tough situation. If they added him to the 40 man, it's likely he would have used all 3 options before reaching the majors. They gambled that no one would take a low A pitcher and lost.

 

Exactly. Rostering him this year would have precluded him having value down the road with all options used up. If he sticks, more power to him but odds are still pretty good he's back in Brewer system in High A this season where he probably belongs.

[Mass Haas]

AUDIO via the Rattler Radio Blog Thurs. 12/8 - Chris & Kyle on a wide variety of topics, including post-Rule 5 discussion

[Outlander]

I don't think the 3 rule 5 picks for the Padres impact Diaz too much since he is the only pitcher of the 3. Diaz can be the back of the bullpen guy the entire season until he gets "injured" at some point.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think the 3 rule 5 picks for the Padres impact Diaz too much since he is the only pitcher of the 3. Diaz can be the back of the bullpen guy the entire season until he gets "injured" at some point.

 

They'll get a close look at him this spring and if they like him, they'll try and make a deal but I don't see them keeping him on their 25 man. That back of the bullpen idea's been tried and all it does is set back a prospect's development to the point where most never make it back.

[And That]

I did a quick run-through of the system yesterday and here are the players who, at first blush, will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the first time next year (i.e., they'll have to be added to the 40-man to be protected):

 

[pre]AAA

Aaron Wilkerson

 

AA

Jacob Nottingham

Dustin Demuth

Mauricio Dubon

Brandon Woodruff

 

A+

David Denson

Malik Collymore

Brandon Diaz

Freddy Peralta

Devin Williams

Kaleb Earls

 

A

Tucker Neuhaus

 

R+

Franley Mallen

Joantgel Segovia

Yeraldy Martinez

Nattino Diplan

Juan Diaz

 

R

Carlos Leal

Julio Mendez

Nelson Hernandez

Carlos Luna

Daniel Missaki

 

DSL

Nic Pierre

Joaquin De La Cruz[/pre]

 

As of right now, you'd have to consider Nottingham, Dubon, and Woodruff to be locks. Peralta and Williams are not too far behind them.

[patrickgpe]

i agree on your assessment, part of the joys of having a great farm system is you are going to lose some in the rule V draft, you can't protect everyone.

[Outlander]

I don't think the 3 rule 5 picks for the Padres impact Diaz too much since he is the only pitcher of the 3. Diaz can be the back of the bullpen guy the entire season until he gets "injured" at some point.

 

They'll get a close look at him this spring and if they like him, they'll try and make a deal but I don't see them keeping him on their 25 man. That back of the bullpen idea's been tried and all it does is set back a prospect's development to the point where most never make it back.

There will be no deal made, a trade with the Brewers can't be made until he clears waivers and by that point the Brewers would just take him back.

[LouisEly]

When did the Brewers sign Mallen and Segovia? If they signed in 2014 they will not be eligible until the 2018 Rule 5 draft.

[And That]

When did the Brewers sign Mallen and Segovia? If they signed in 2014 they will not be eligible until the 2018 Rule 5 draft.

Both signed in July 2013.

 

At this point, extremely long odds either would need to be protected.

[JohnBriggs12]

Kirk fills an immediate need as a backup OF (lefty with some pop who can play all 3 spots). While I don't like him and Scahill (potentially couple others) on the 40 I understand why they're on it.

 

I highly doubt Stearns 100% knew Diaz would be selected. Of the 12 "cream of the crop" for this year only 2 were selected and Diaz wasn't even listed on that. He's 22 next year and has never seen anything higher than A. The chances of Stearns truly believing he was 100% gone is slim. No doubt they knew he had a chance of being selected just like with Wang and Wren.

 

Additionally, him being the top selection has nothing to do with him being the "best" prospect or highly thought of across the board. The Padres clearly wanted him and rated him highly. For all we know they're the only team that rated him highly enough to be selected over some of the other more advanced talent. The Padres can also stash him at the back of the pen while mixing in DL stints because they're terrible. They're probably wanting to build their lower levels with strong arms without having to trade anyone and the Rule 5 is the avenue for doing such a thing.

 

Nieuwenhuis can play all 3 OF positions but guess what, so can Perez. Yes Kirk has some pop but he also struggles making contact. It just seems to me that they should be looking for an upgrade who's more of a professional hitter even if that guy is strictly a corner OF.

[FVBrewerFan]

I did a quick run-through of the system yesterday and here are the players who, at first blush, will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the first time next year (i.e., they'll have to be added to the 40-man to be protected):

 

[pre]AAA

Aaron Wilkerson

 

AA

Jacob Nottingham

Dustin Demuth

Mauricio Dubon

Brandon Woodruff

 

A+

David Denson

Malik Collymore

Brandon Diaz

Freddy Peralta

Devin Williams

Kaleb Earls

 

A

Tucker Neuhaus

 

R+

Franley Mallen

Joantgel Segovia

Yeraldy Martinez

Nattino Diplan

Juan Diaz

 

R

Carlos Leal

Julio Mendez

Nelson Hernandez

Carlos Luna

Daniel Missaki

 

DSL

Nic Pierre

Joaquin De La Cruz[/pre]

 

As of right now, you'd have to consider Nottingham, Dubon, and Woodruff to be locks. Peralta and Williams are not too far behind them.

 

Pleasant surprise for me, pretty manageable. Diaz, Ortiz, Diplan, Bickford, Ponce, Perrin not on the list yet. Woodruff I predict being on the 25 before the end of the season.

[Mass Haas]

Via Padres.com discussing the Padres' 25-man roster projection --

 

Miguel Diaz

3.00 ERA, 6 IP, 3 H, 4 BB, 4 K

 

Diaz is probably the safest bet on this list, mainly because of his Rule 5 status. But he's also backed up his claim this week since returning from a blister issue by tossing three scoreless, hitless frames. The Padres are treating Diaz much in the same way they treated fellow Rule 5er Luis Perdomo last year. He'll be a reliever in the short-term, and, they hope, a rotation fixture in the long-term. In that sense, it's worth pointing out that Diaz is miles ahead of where Perdomo was at this point last year.

[Outlander]

Diaz also has major control issues, had 10 straight balls the other day. Since the Padres are so bad I imagine they stick with him but once the season starts and he is facing big league hitters I think it is going to be a real struggle, just as bad as when Wang was on the team.

[And That]

But he might have been out of options and forced a roster decision in 2020!

 

Couldn't take that risk.

[Outlander]

Not that tbey couldn't just wasn't worth it and still isn't.

[trwi7]

Not that tbey couldn't just wasn't worth it and still isn't.

 

Look at some of the players on our 40 man. I'll take a 22 year old throwing 98 with ridiculous movement over at least 5 guys on our 40 man roster right now.

[CrewCut]

Yeah, there is some junk on the 40-man. Not a justifiable decision then or now.

[jerichoholicninja]

Really needed the room to claim Geltz and Parker. Oh wait, they were let go for nothing.

[pacopete4]

Mistakes are going to happen. This one could come back to haunt Stearns but he's young and hopefully learning and growing as he goes. We tend to beat these types of things to death around here.

[Boomer5]

I actually like what Stearns is doing for the offense but I don't think he knows a whole lot about pitching. We all called the Diaz thing, this wasn't a hindsight thing.

[jerichoholicninja]

I actually like what Stearns is doing for the offense but I don't think he knows a whole lot about pitching. We all called the Diaz thing, this wasn't a hindsight thing.

 

For me it's not really about Diaz. It was claiming a couple nothing, 4A, filler types that could be had at pretty much anytime for nothing over protecting anybody. And then just letting them go on waivers.