2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster

[bork]

Diaz was a tough situation. If they added him to the 40 man, it's likely he would have used all 3 options before reaching the majors. They gambled that no one would take a low A pitcher and lost.

[MKE81]

Caleb Smith was traded to the Cubs so we don't have him and still have a spot open on the 40.

 

I have no problem leaving Diaz unprotected. Sure I'd rather protect him than Scahill or others but he was under one year young for the A level and was just solid as a starter and not good at all as a reliever, where he might end up (granted he's still 3yrs away so that part can develop). He has a plus fastball and average or worse with everything else including control plus he had arm surgery in 2015 I believe (or an arm injury). I don't think he's anyone you lose sleep over right now as a potential legitimate contributor since he's so far away and already had arm issues. If he had stuff like Taylor Williams he would have been protected. Everyone thought Wang was gone for sure and he's still sitting in AAA, which is good for for the org.

 

Diaz finished 29th in the poll on this board and you can knock that down to 30 for sure with Dubon added and potentially even 31 for Pennington.

[brewerfan82]

Picking up Matt Ramsey in the minor league phase of the draft seems like an intriguing add. He's not young, but he's been pretty consistently a 2.00 ERA, 10+ K/9, low H/9, practically zero HR/9 (3 HR in 168.3 IP!) type pitcher throughout his career.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=ramsey002mat

[MilwaukeeBeers]

How David Goforth, Brent Suter both have a roster spot is beyond me. I love Stearns but this was a complete mismanagement of the 40. [expletive deleted by moderator] disgusting seeing talent go for free.

[Outlander]

Diaz was a tough situation. If they added him to the 40 man, it's likely he would have used all 3 options before reaching the majors. They gambled that no one would take a low A pitcher and lost.

That is a good point. It will be very difficult for the Padres to get him to stick in the majors after three option years especially if he gets hurt again. The Brewers might even get a shot at him again if the Padres are forced to remove him from the 40 man roster like the Brewers did with Wang in 2015.

[MilwaukeesBest]

How David Goforth, Brent Suter both have a roster spot is beyond me. I love Stearns but this was a complete mismanagement of the 40. [expletive deleted by moderator] disgusting seeing talent go for free.

 

Hot Take!!

[Mudville9]

While I hate seeing Diaz go, Stearns was rolling the dice that someone wouldn't take an A ball player. Protecting Diaz would have caused issues for the next couple years with the 40 man roster. Putting him on the 40 man doesn't just affect this year is what I'm trying to say I guess. He may have thought he would pick up more players (Getz left in FA) or that another trade might come through.

 

We will just have to keep our fingers crossed that he gets rocked this year and gets sent back to us.

[MKE81]

How David Goforth, Brent Suter both have a roster spot is beyond me. I love Stearns but this was a complete mismanagement of the 40. [expletive deleted by moderator] disgusting seeing talent go for free.

Goforth isn't on the 40. But both provide depth at AAA and can potentially contribute at the MLB level compared to a 22yr old who would have started in A+ next year and didn't dominate A ball. There are 40 spots. 25 comprise the MLB team. The other 15 will comprise a combination of top talent and those performing at the upper levels that can step in and contribute immediately or in the very near future including when injuries occur (Brinson, Hader, Phillips, Cordell, Williams, Magnifico, Lopez, Reed, etc). If he had the stuff of a Taylor Williams he'd most likely be on the 40. Guys like Goforth, Scahill are easily replaced by better options that come along and contribute to the MLB team. If Diaz is on the 40 over them it can become an issue now and moving forward.

[rwa12]

Nice to see Dylan Covey have a chance to get drafted for the third time.

[And That]

My issue with saying that Diaz is only in A-ball, so it might be wasting a roster spot for a few years and he may run out of options, is that it gets into predicting the future a little too much. It is not unreasonable to expect a guy as talented as Diaz (whose future scouting grade ranges from about 45-60, depending on who you listen to) to spend part of next year in A+ and part of next year in AA, should things click. Once a player is at AA, the trip between there and MLB can be relatively short. And I'm not predicting that would happen, but Diaz being up in 2018 or 2019 is just as plausible as Diaz being out of options in spring training of 2020.

 

Keeping Goforth (who was on the 40-man at the time) at the expense of losing Diaz still strikes me as a weird move that has considerably more downside than upside.

[Mudville9]

My issue with saying that Diaz is only in A-ball, so it might be wasting a roster spot for a few years and he may run out of options, is that it gets into predicting the future a little too much. It is not unreasonable to expect a guy as talented as Diaz (whose future scouting grade ranges from about 45-60, depending on who you listen to) to spend part of next year in A+ and part of next year in AA, should things click. Once a player is at AA, the trip between there and MLB can be relatively short. And I'm not predicting that would happen, but Diaz being up in 2018 or 2019 is just as plausible as Diaz being out of options in spring training of 2020.

 

Keeping Goforth (who was on the 40-man at the time) at the expense of losing Diaz still strikes me as a weird move that has considerably more downside than upside.

 

 

I totally get that and don't disagree. I think Stearns thought he could squeeze him through (see Liriano) and it didn't work. It will definitely be interesting to see what Diaz does and where he ends up in the next few years.

[CheezWizHed]

If you look at MLB Pipeline, here are the number of 50+ valued players in each system:

 

Brewers - 20

Padres - 18

Yankees - 18

Athletics - 16

Rays - 15

Reds - 14

Braves - 14

Phillies - 14

Cubs - 13

Rockies - 12

Dodgers - 11

Astros - 11

Mets - 11

Cardinals - 11

White Sox - 10

Blue Jays - 10

Twins - 10

Mariners - 9

Rangers - 9

Pirates - 8

Indians - 7

Angels - 6

Tigers - 6

Nationals - 6

Dbacks - 5

Red Sox - 5

Giants - 5

Royals - 5

Orioles - 4

Marlins - 4

 

Obviously, this doesn't take into account really high end prospects who are 60 or whatever. Those guys are rare and very valuable. But it does show the immense depth we have of solid prospects.

 

Copied this from the BF25 ranking. It stinks to lose Diaz, but we can't be too upset when we lose someone outside our top 20 prospects. Its going to happen over and over in the coming years with the depth that we have.

 

Stearns is gaining more talent than losing. He took a gamble (with several players actually) and lost one. I'm not going to lose any sleep over this.

[1992casey]

How David Goforth, Brent Suter both have a roster spot is beyond me. I love Stearns but this was a complete mismanagement of the 40. [expletive deleted by moderator] disgusting seeing talent go for free.

MilwaukeeBeers, please read over the section on language in Fan Forum Etiquette.

[Crash2303]

as disappointed as I am to see Diaz lost, I was more frustrated at the loss of Liriano as I did not think the risk was worth the gamble. though, Goforth over Diaz was atrocious too. and although I of course don't want to root against anyone trying to make it- it would be hard to see either of these guys go on to be successful with another team.

[Crash2303]

anybody know anything about Art Charles? looks like last year he killed Indy ball and was Indy Player of the Year. but is struggling this winter in the carribean. Here's a BA write up on his Indy time- looks intriguing- classic Stearns pick.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/art-charles-regains-swing-confidence-jersey/#pRKRvcgEiXrSOYtj.97

 

I also really like the Matt Ramsey pick. he'll have to battle with a stacked AA/AAA bullpen but his statistical track record is very positive. he missed all of 2015 and most of 2016, with I assume an injury. couldn't find any info on that- but hope he's healthy and ready to go. Here's a write up from John Sickels before the 2015 season, who rated him #19 in the Marlins system:

 

19) Matt Ramsey, RHP, Grade C: Age 25, another relief candidate, posted 1.47 ERA with 80/30 K/BB in 61 innings, 35 hits in Double-A, traded from Rays last year for bonus pool money, another low-90s fastball with a nice breaking ball, erratic command but good middle relief possibilities.

[MrTPlush]

A few thoughts:

 

#1 Maybe the Brewers just don't like Diaz that much? Everyone comes out in celebration when Stearns picks up a player about as valuable as a bucket of balls, but the second he lets someone go there are no believers in what he is doing. Weird.

 

#2 Adding onto the fact he would have burned through his options before making it to the MLB roster there is another issue more closely related to his spot on the 40man roster. Think about all the talent we have coming up right now just in AA/AAA that is going to need a 40 man roster spot. A lot of those guys have way higher ceilings than Diaz. Maybe Stearns felt like this was the best chance to keep Diaz off the 40 man roster. If you add him now, yes, the problem has been fixed. However in two years and you need his 40 man spot for a better player your odds of getting him through waivers is very unlikely. I don't think Stearns wanted to waste a 40 man spot on a guy so far away from the majors that probably would have lost it down the road anyway.

 

Option one is probably the most likely. Do you honestly think Stearns gambled he wouldn't be taken? He went #1 in the draft I m sure he knew teams liked him and someone was bound to take him. Stearns and Co. just weren't big fans of Diaz. Not enough to give him a valuable 40 man spot as a player in the low minors.

[And That]

#2 Adding onto the fact he would have burned through his options before making it to the MLB roster

Not a fact.

 

The primary guys the Brewers will have to protect next year are Nottingham/Woodruff/Dubon. I don't see Diaz being on the 40-man roster as an impediment to adding three guys to the roster 11 months from now.

[FVBrewerFan]

1) Stearns wasn't "rolling the dice." They absolutely knew someone would take Diaz.

 

2) This should put to rest the whole "tanking" debate once and for all. Stearns kept a couple serviceable BP arms for this season rather than keep a young, high upside guy on the 40.

[MadThinker88]

1) Stearns wasn't "rolling the dice." They absolutely knew someone would take Diaz.

 

Please enlighten the rest of us on "HOW THEY ABSOLUTELY KNEW".

[Mass Haas]

Did we lose Elvis Rubio too?

The problem with stockpiling talent is other teams take notice.

 

Rubio (stats) was taken in the minor league phase by the Tigers, so he won't be back at all, they're taking a flyer on a potential power bat that hasn't impressed since Maryvale in 2013.

 

Rubio, though just 22, is entering his final season before minor league free agency.

 

The Brewers could protect up to 38 players from the minor league phase, so ten players (or more) from this list were eligible to be plucked away like Rubio was.

[brewmann04]

I agree but hey we kept Captain Kirk instead of a young Arm

[CheeseheadInQC]

Despite being the top pick, I don't know that it is fair to say that Diaz was a lock to get picked. The Rule 5 draft is notoriously unpredictable (a number of the guys who topped all of the rule 5 previews didn't get chosen) and their are typically more stash types than teams interested in stashing a player (five of the 18 picks were guys who haven't hit AA and three went to one team). Also, unlike some of the other stash pitchers, Diaz was looked at as likely being a reliever long term.

 

On a related note, are the Padres really going to use three roster spots on guys who have never played above A ball? When's the last time a team had multiple obvious rule 5 stashes?

[MrTPlush]

On a related note, are the Padres really going to use three roster spots on guys who have never played above A ball? When's the last time a team had multiple obvious rule 5 stashes?

 

Nope, but they can take them into ST and get better looks at them. 1-2 of them will be put on waivers by the end of spring training. I mean sure they could...will they? I really doubt it. Even if they do I am sure one will not last very long.

[MKE81]

Kirk fills an immediate need as a backup OF (lefty with some pop who can play all 3 spots). While I don't like him and Scahill (potentially couple others) on the 40 I understand why they're on it.

 

I highly doubt Stearns 100% knew Diaz would be selected. Of the 12 "cream of the crop" for this year only 2 were selected and Diaz wasn't even listed on that. He's 22 next year and has never seen anything higher than A. The chances of Stearns truly believing he was 100% gone is slim. No doubt they knew he had a chance of being selected just like with Wang and Wren.

 

Additionally, him being the top selection has nothing to do with him being the "best" prospect or highly thought of across the board. The Padres clearly wanted him and rated him highly. For all we know they're the only team that rated him highly enough to be selected over some of the other more advanced talent. The Padres can also stash him at the back of the pen while mixing in DL stints because they're terrible. They're probably wanting to build their lower levels with strong arms without having to trade anyone and the Rule 5 is the avenue for doing such a thing.

[And That]

When's the last time a team had multiple obvious rule 5 stashes?

Last year the Padres made four Rule 5 selections. They ended up keeping one all year (Perdomo) and traded for another to keep him in the organization (Blash). The other two (Martin/Smith) were returned to their original organizations.

 

Detroit kept 3 all year back in 2003.