2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster

[nate82]

Again Nieuwenhuis is redundant and doesn't add value above what the Brewers already have.

 

Liriano, Reed, and Wren are all options equal to what Nieuwenhuis brings value wise.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Again Nieuwenhuis is redundant and doesn't add value above what the Brewers already have.

 

Liriano, Reed, and Wren are all options equal to what Nieuwenhuis brings value wise.

 

The best case scenario might be a trade, but I don't think DFA'ing Nieuwenhuis makes sense. There are precious few players right now who can post a .700 OPS and play a credible center field, and teams would probably prefer to have two. As to the other options, Liriano is tough to judge because of the lost season, but Reed has failed to stand out in one of the best hitting environments in minor league baseball and Wren's batting average in Colorado Springs is more than a hundred and twenty points better than his road batting average. I just think Nieuwenhuis is the better player now, and I don't know that any of the other options have proven themselves to be any more a part of the future.

[igor67]

I think you have a lot more value in trying to play Reed or Wren and see if they can develop into solid 4th OF options and give you multiple cheap years of production then playing Kirk and hoping you can flip him for a meaningful prospect relative to what we already have in the system.

[djoctagone]

it should be noted that clubs likely look at roster capacity and makeup of other teams right up until the deadline to protect players from the rule 5 draft. in november 2015, the brewers added only three players to the 40-man roster to protect them from the rule 5 draft. many more were added in september.

 

thus, other teams had more time to better assess the makeup of brewers' roster and possibly anticipate what player(s) the brewers may draft from their organization.

[Mass Haas]

As in the past, will make notations in the initial post of this thread as necessary, have done so for LHP Brent Suter.

[clancyphile]

RELEASE/DFA:

RHP Matt Garza

OF/IF Jake Elmore

OF Kirk Neuwenheis

LHP Chris Capuano

OF/1B Andy Wilkins

3B/1B Garin Cecchini

3B Will Middlebrooks

LHP Sean Nolin

RHP Rob Scahill

 

TRADE:

2B Scooter Gennett

1B Chris Carter

C Martin Maldonado

 

ADD:

LHP Josh Hader

LHP Wei-Chung Wang

OF Brett Phillips

OF Lewis Brinson

C Josmil Pinto

1B Garrett Cooper

OF Kyle Wren

OF Victor Roache

UT Nate Orf

[pacopete4]

The thing about the 40 man that I hate to even try to predict is who is going to be available from other teams. That might go a long way into who is added to it from the Brewers stand point.

[JohnBriggs12]

Some have mentioned Roache as worth protecting. Really? What would motivate a team to draft a corner OF who's never posted an OPS over .800, will be 25 years old, and has never played an inning above AA? It's been over 4 years since he was a late first round pick. If they re-drafted the 2012 class, he wouldn't be in the top 10 rounds.

 

I can understand not wanting to risk Taylor, though with all the CF in play now, losing him would not be a disaster and he'd probably not stick anyway. But he's younger and plays a premium position.

 

Reed's status on the 40 man should be in doubt as well. Someone might claim him because he still has options despite his less than impressive AAA season. But again, other players Brewers have added have passed him on the depth chart.

[ZBTMP]

Reed's status on the 40 man should be in doubt as well. Someone might claim him because he still has options despite his less than impressive AAA season. But again, other players Brewers have added have passed him on the depth chart.

 

Before his current 14 ab hitless streak, his OBP was .376. He is still 3.5 years younger than league average. I doubt his 40 man spot is in any kind of jeopardy personally, but I've been wrong before.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I'm skeptical that Pinto gets added. It's not clear if they really view him as a full-time catcher at this point and he's another one with pretty extreme home/road splits that make it difficult to say he's a legitimate 1B option. Colorado Springs just makes it so tough to judge how good a hitter actually is.

 

Overall I doubt too many hitters are added (outside of the obvious two, maybe Taylor and Coulter). I think the Brewers will protect some of the fringe pitchers over players such as Wren, Orf, Pinto, Roache and Cooper.

[LouisEly]

Taylor now has 1000 PAs at AA and a career .637 OPS at AA. At this point I don't think that he will be someone that teams will take a chance on, and if there are teams looking to add Rule 5 guys there will be better options.

 

Cravy has looked really good since returning from CS. The walks are a bit of a concern, but it looks like the adjustments he's made allow him to hide the ball better (perhaps at the risk of a little lower control). His line for the season looks really good except for one game where he allowed a couple of HRs at the Great American Bandbox. I think he has more value even as a bullpen arm than guys who are at this point a long shot (Taylor, Roache) or profile as bench players (Orf, Rivera).

 

With Suter topping out at 85 I'm not sure how many teams will take a chance on him versus what else will be available. Rivera is a luxury to have if you are a good team, but he's never hit anywhere and I think the Brewers need to focus on keeping higher upside guys (same with Suter - he's decent, but protect higher upside). Perez's development makes Middlebrooks and Cecchini expendable; they were likely overhyped Red Sox prospects to begin with. At this point I'd take the upside of T. Williams, Nolin, M. Diaz, and Barrios over those guys.

 

Sitting at 44 right now:

 

Definitely remove: Boyer, Scahill, Elmore, Wilkins, Nieuwenhuis, Capuano, Goforth, Rivera, Middlebrooks, Cecchini, Suter. That leaves 33.

 

Definitely add: Brinson, Hader, Wang, Phillips, M. Diaz, T. Williams, Coulter.

 

That leaves six guys fighting for three spots: Rowen, Houser, Reed, Wren, Ventura, Ross

 

Torn on Houser - I know he'll be out the whole year, but he was so good in 2015; someone could scoop him and stash him for a year. Ross is having a nice year but he's still behind Thornburg/Knebel/Torres/Blazek/Marinez/Cravy/Magnifico for a bullpen spot. I could see the Brewers actually put him on their AA roster to give him a chance with another organization; otherwise the Brewers would have to move some guys (Torres, etc.) for him to have a spot. Rowen has been really good the last two years and has been equally effective against RH and LH hitters; but again, the bullpen is crowded. Wren and Reed are very similar; I doubt both get picked but at this point go with production (Wren). I get the home/road splits concern, but Reed is worse both at home and on the road. Wren is just outproducing Reed; even on the road Wren still has a .378 OBP.

 

At this point I say Houser (highest upside of the group), Rowen, and Wren and roll the dice that Ventura doesn't get picked or doesn't stick.

[ZBTMP]

Wren and Reed are very similar; I doubt both get picked but at this point go with production (Wren). I get the home/road splits concern, but Reed is worse both at home and on the road. Wren is just outproducing Reed; even on the road Wren still has a .378 OBP.

 

 

Wren's production is being fueled by .417 BABIP which is a pretty big outlier vs. the rest of his career. Reed is still 1.5 years younger and better iso power numbers. The production's coming into this season weren't even close. Taking Wren over Reed is alittle bit too much recency bias for me.

Prior to this season.

Reed

A -1.3 years 125 wRC+

A+ -1.7 years 130 wRC+

AA -2 years 129 wRC+

AAA: -4.8 years 100wRC+

 

Wren

A +.0.4 years 142 wRC+

A+ +0.1 years 105 wRC+

AA: -1.5 years 102 wRC+

AA: 0.0 years 104 wRC+

AAA: -2.8 years 65 wRC+

[CheezWizHed]

Actually, Taylor and Suter are realistic pickups in the Rule 5 draft. Rule 5 draftees tend to be "hidden" by being put in a role of defensive replacement or BP roles. Taylor is ready on defense and can play a 5th OFer role. He is still pretty young and has a chance to still develop (granted a bit of a long shot now). Suter is on the 40-man roster now, so no Rule 5 but removing him would expose him to waivers so a similar situation. But otherwise he certainly was candidate for the BP as a lefty or long man.

 

Don't we tend to debate doing the inverse of Houser's situation each year? Finding a guy to pick and stash on the MLB 60-day DL with upside, but it seems like no one ever does it.

[JohnBriggs12]

Wren and Reed are very similar; I doubt both get picked but at this point go with production (Wren). I get the home/road splits concern, but Reed is worse both at home and on the road. Wren is just outproducing Reed; even on the road Wren still has a .378 OBP.

 

 

Wren's production is being fueled by .417 BABIP which is a pretty big outlier vs. the rest of his career. Reed is still 1.5 years younger and better iso power numbers. The production's coming into this season weren't even close. Taking Wren over Reed is alittle bit too much recency bias for me.

Prior to this season.

Reed

A -1.3 years 125 wRC+

A+ -1.7 years 130 wRC+

AA -2 years 129 wRC+

AAA: -4.8 years 100wRC+

 

Wren

A +.0.4 years 142 wRC+

A+ +0.1 years 105 wRC+

AA: -1.5 years 102 wRC+

AA: 0.0 years 104 wRC+

AAA: -2.8 years 65 wRC+

 

 

Since they'd be exposing Reed to waivers, and he still has options, I get your point. But Wren hits lefthanded, something the Brewers are sorely lacking on their 40 man roster and of all the guys they'd expose to Rule 5 who are borderline, Wren is clearly the most likely to be lost in the draft. While both take a lot of walks, Wren doesn't strike out much compared to Reed and so even if his BABIP slips, he's going to get his hits.

[LouisEly]

I get the BABIP argument, but that is just in AAA this year; Wren's BABIP in AA this year was .327 and he still had a .383 OBP at AA. Reed's BABIP in AAA is .342 (.347 in AA last year) and only posted a .363 SLG and .728 OPS. Much of his prior offense was fueled by triples (13 in 2013, 7 in 2015) which isn't going to happen in the upper levels, thus his SLG drop this year. So I don't necessarily think that his past offensive performance is that relevant.

 

The age argument means nothing to me. Reed is younger, but he's had two more years of professional coaching. I think those things balance out.

[ZBTMP]

I get the BABIP argument, but that is just in AAA this year; Wren's BABIP in AA this year was .327 and he still had a .383 OBP at AA.

And not surprisingly, he was less productive this year in AA than Reed's performance last year at the same level.

 

Reed's BABIP in AAA is .342 (.347 in AA last year) and only posted a .363 SLG and .728 OPS.

.342 BABIP is pretty much career norm for Reed at every level. Despite a down overall slugging, he still has an ISO over .100 something Wren has never done.

 

Much of his prior offense was fueled by triples (13 in 2013, 7 in 2015) which isn't going to happen in the upper levels, thus his SLG drop this year. So I don't necessarily think that his past offensive performance is that relevant.

 

His reduction in slugging has very little to do with the ~4 lost bases from a reduction in triples that are now doubles, and alot to do with a 5% jump in strikeout rate. The jump in strikeout rate is concerning but this is an area where players tend to improve over time with additional development when they are Reed's age.

 

The age argument means nothing to me. Reed is younger, but he's had two more years of professional coaching. I think those things balance out.

So Wren received no developmental coaching at Georgia Tech? If we are only counting professional coaching in evaluating players on the developmental curve; college, high school, and latin players would all reach the bigs at the same amount of developmental time. They don't. Age is far more important to the developmental curve than year of professional experience.

[LouisEly]

You're telling me the coaching at GA Tech is as good as the coaching in the pros? And having classes as your full-time job and baseball as your part-time job, as opposed to baseball being your full-time job, results in the same amount of development? Ok...

 

So despite Reed's .342 BABIP, you're telling me it was a productive .736 OPS in a hitting-friendly environment in CS. The BABIP isn't good luck, but the .736 OPS in a hitter-friendly environment is bad luck. I get it now...

[TheCrew07]

The age argument means nothing to me. Reed is younger, but he's had two more years of professional coaching. I think those things balance out.

So Wren received no developmental coaching at Georgia Tech? If we are only counting professional coaching in evaluating players on the developmental curve; college, high school, and latin players would all reach the bigs at the same amount of developmental time. They don't. Age is far more important to the developmental curve than year of professional experience.

 

I believe that in general fans overstate the quality of coaching in college baseball, it's mostly a "if it's not broke, don't fix it" type of scenario, in the same way that fans overestimate just how much development traditionally happened in the minor leagues. Most of the college guys just have more experience against better pitching, so they've going to be naturally better than the competition at the lower levels, Helena for example, than they are as they progress to full season ball. There is such a wide a gulf between the best and worst programs from a coaching standpoint that generally I feel most college pitchers and hitters will take 3 years if not more to reach the big leagues. In that respect they are no different than the best HS players who fly the minors and hit MLB at age 21 or 22.

 

There will certainly be exceptions... young men who were overlooked for any number of reasons who emerge from later in the draft but for the most part the players who move the fastest are the college guys from the top 10 picks or pitchers being used as relievers. However, age and production relative to level are the biggest indicators of future success from where I'm sitting. I've talked quite a bit over the years about a player's 3 year trend and I really only get excited about players who are young and ascending towards MLB.

 

Can Wren and/or Orf be productive MLB players? Maybe? For older players I typically expect a drop of about .50 points in OPS when they move up so both Wren and Orf look like utility players to me. I'd rather have above average athletes, who play sound defense, with questionable bats into those roles... kind of like a developmental role on the ball club. As such I'd much rather have players like Yadiel Rivera and Hernan Perez around. If the light goes on with those physically gifted guys you have another valuable piece in the short term and long term provides more options and more flexibility as pieces are moved around the chess board. If they don't work out after a couple of years then fine, but I'd much rather give high ceiling players every opportunity to succeed, and I do realize that's atypical in that if I guy doesn't perform in 50 ABs fans, teams, the front office, and coaches want a more productive player. There's just not much patience at all in baseball, but I'd prefer under performing higher ceiling players in those roles vs maxed out high floor types.

 

Basically I have no use for CC types on the roster and never have, even MLB regulars like McGehee grate on me, so I don't care if Orf or Wren are protected, hopefully they get their shot with someone and make the most of it if they get selected. I'd be fine with them if we didn't have better (at least in my opinion) utility player options both in the short and long term. I completely understand why posters root for unheralded and performing prospects, especially at the upper levels, but again those players are somewhat disposable and I prefer potential over production in the limited role.

[ZBTMP]

You're telling me the coaching at GA Tech is as good as the coaching in the pros? And having classes as your full-time job and baseball as your part-time job, as opposed to baseball being your full-time job, results in the same amount of development? Ok...

Never said that. I said it wasn't a negligible level of development as reasoning for your statement of "means nothing to me" would imply; and regardless of the developmental environment, you have to factor that Wren has two additional years of physical and mental maturity. I can't see anyway that is not important in evaluating baseball players.

 

So despite Reed's .342 BABIP, you're telling me it was a productive .736 OPS in a hitting-friendly environment in CS.

I never called it productive, it is league average. I simply concluded that he is hitting with more power than Wren ever has even in a "down" year.

 

The BABIP isn't good luck,

YES, after a .339 career BABIP in 2318 MiLB PA, I would say he posses the batted ball profile that leads to higher BABIP. If anything, given the hitter friendly nature and altitude it is slightly below what I'd expect.

 

but the .736 OPS in a hitter-friendly environment is bad luck. I get it now...

A elevated strikeout rate is not "Bad luck" but it is improvable with skill progression. I don't think I am going to convince you and you will not convince me, so we will just have to wait to see how the Brewers value the 2 this off season.

[djoctagone]

newly acquired ryan cordell is rule 5 eligible this year. some tough decisions looming on which outfielders to protect.

[MadThinker88]

newly acquired ryan cordell is rule 5 eligible this year. some tough decisions looming on which outfielders to protect.

 

Makes me even more suprised at his selection as PTBNL...

 

Normally clubs want the player under some control and have a little time to evaluate on their own (up close) instead of from a distance...

[MKE81]

Brinson, Phillips, Cordell on it. Leave Taylor, Coulter off they're buried in the system and I can't see any team selecting either base on performance the past 2yrs. Reed I'd protect if able too followed by Wren. I don't think it'll be too difficult when dealing with the OF group

[Greenleaf1]

Reed is already on the 40-man, so he should be fine.

[Mass Haas]

Added newly-acquired OF Ryan Cordell to the initial post in this thread

[djoctagone]

this goes against what most others have been predicting, but is brett phillips truly a lock to be added? his 2016 campaign with biloxi was underwhelming, and he's certainly not turning any heads in the arizona fall league right now.

 

while it's likely that he'd be snagged in the rule 5 draft, i see it less likely that he'd stick all season with the drafting club . . . especially when there are wild card berths usually within reach for many teams come 31 july.

 

i know that there are many players that should be outrighted to the minor leagues (even those coming off the 60-day disabled list), so excluding phillips isn't necessarily because of roster space, but perhaps to delay his options clock by another season so he's not in sync with lewis brinson's and ryan cordell's options clocks?