2016 Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster

[Mass Haas]

Not to be confused with our Brewer Minor League Free Agency Eligibles After the 2016 Season Thread, this thread focuses on those players who will be eligible to be selected in December's Rule 5 Draft, and considers who Milwaukee should add to the 40-man roster to protect.

 

Remember --

 

Players who signed when 18 or younger are eligible for the draft after five years.

Players who signed when 19 or older are eligible after four years.

 

According to the rules, it's how old a player was on the June 5th immediately preceeding his signing.

 

Below are the players not eligible for free agency, but who would be Rule 5 eligible if not placed on the 40-man roster.

 

If a player is italicized, it's the first year the player is eligible to be added to a 40-man roster.

 

Players listed alphabetically within level:

 

Current AAA Players --

 

RHP Yhonathan Barrios

1B Garrett Cooper

RHP Paolo Espino

RHP Drew Gagnon

RHP David Goforth

IF Gabriel Noriega

UT Nate Orf

LHP Stephen Peterson

LHP Wei-Chung Wang

C Adam Weisenburger

OF Kyle Wren

 

Current AA Players --

 

RHP Tristan Archer

IF Javier Betancourt

RHP Parker Berberet

OF Clint Coulter

OF Johnny Davis

RHP Preston Gainey

OF Omar Garcia

RHP Stephen Kohlscheen

LHP Mitch Lambson

2B Chris McFarland

SS Angel Ortega

RHP Jorge Ortega

LHP Nick Ramirez

RHP Junior Rincon

OF Victor Roache

RHP Tayler Scott

RHP Tyler Spurlin

OF Tyrone Taylor

RHP Josh Uhen

RHP Angel Ventura

 

Current A-Level (or below) players --

 

OF Carlos Belonis

RHP Rodrigo Benoit

LHP Joan De La Cruz

RHP Miguel Diaz

RHP Victor Diaz

RHP Junior Flores

RHP Milton Gomez

C Dustin Houle

RHP Yosmer Leal

C Natanael Mejia

LHP Boanerges Nova

1B Juan Ortiz

RHP Alberto Paulino

C/UT Fidel Pena

IF Wendell Rijo

OF Elvis Rubio

1B Alan Sharkey

LHP Clint Terry

[Mass Haas]

Well, Josh Hader, Lewis Brinson and Brett Phillips are locks, right?

 

Tyrone Taylor, too, if not a lock, is very close to a lock.

 

The Brewers love Nate Orf, and as a guy capable of playing all over, he could be valuable as a player who could be utilized in a Rule 5 fashion.

 

Wei-Chung Wang? Javier Betancourt?

 

Do the Brewers add one of the older power relief arms (Kohlscheen, Ross)?

 

This thread always generates interesting speculation and discussion.

 

Have at it.

[adambr2]

Along with the speculated names that Mass mentioned I would suggest Coulter could get added with a strong next month in Biloxi. I think Wang's promotion to AAA is an indication of our desire to see what he can do at that level before making a decision on him

[Crash2303]

I see seven spots easily freed up on the 40 man. Here is who I think they are and who I would replace them with:

 

REMOVE

Scahill

Capuano

Middlebooks

Elmore

Wilkins

Nieuwenhuis

Boyer

 

ADD

Brinson

Hader

Orf

Suter

Wren

Phillips

Pinto (FA)

 

in addition, I think we could probably remove the following guys off the 40 man if needed without someone claiming them:

Goforth

Cravy

Houser

Rowen

Garza- a little different scenario

[Outlander]

You can't just remove and add seven players because there are actually 4 players on the 60 day DL, so in reality have 44 players on the 40 man roster right now. Also don't think Taylor is a lock, probably would consider him a longshot, don't think he gets added.

[FVBrewerFan]

Good news is, there's a long list of guys on current 40 man that either flat out need to go, or are marginal. I put this together just to illustrate it should be fairly easy to protect anyone worth protecting on the list above.

 

Goodbye, good luck (5): Scahill, Elmore, Wilkins, Rowen, Capuano

 

AAAA nice to have but not needed (13): Goforth, Cravy, Nolen, Barrios, Middlebrooks, Pina, Flores, Nieuwenhuis, Boyer, Cecchini, Marinez, Blazek, Houser (IR, no need to protect him on 40?)

 

If you need to dig deeper (7): Torres, Broxton, Liriano, Y Rivera, Reed, Guerra, Garza

[clancyphile]

I'd look at this a different way:

 

Players to HAVE to be added

LHP Josh Hader

LHP Wei-Chung Wang

LHP Brent Suter

OF Brett Phillips

OF Lewis Brinson

C Josmil Pinto

1B Garrett Cooper

 

Players to add if possible

OF Victor Roache

OF Kyle Wren

RHP Jorge Ortega

UT Nate Orf

OF Johnny Davis

[gregmag]

I always do this before looking at others' lists, so that I can look stupid under my own power.

 

DROP

Boyer

Elmore

Garza (I can dream, can't I?)

Goforth

Middlebrooks

Nieuwenhuis

Scahill

Wilkins

 

ADD

Brinson

Coulter

M. Diaz

Hader

Phillips

Suter

Wang

Wren

 

I'm not adding Betancourt and Taylor because I don't think they've shown enough to warrant a Rule 5 claim. You could say the same about Coulter, but his power could make him appealing. The other additions are useful guys I'm more confident we'd stand a good chance of losing.

 

I'm on the fence about adding Jorge Ortega and Ventura. They're two guys for whom I've never had a great feel, but they seem to have some promise. We could dump one or two of Rowen, Cravy, or Marinez (approximate order in which I'd consider dumping) to add one or both of them. I'm not sure about the contract status of all our MLB relievers, but I'm assuming for this exercise that we either have them for next year or would have reason to add someone similar to replace any we lost.

 

I could see an argument for dropping Cecchini, but I'd like to know more about how the FO thinks he's looked this year, and he serves a purpose with Elmore, Middlebrooks, and Wilkins all leaving.

 

I would also consider subbing out Maldonado for Pinto. I'd need to know more about how that move threatened to affect our pitching staff before I could decide. I'd like to see Susac or Pina start next year, and unless the pitchers would collapse without Maldonado I don't see why he's essential. At least Pinto can hit.

 

I can't remember whether we can actually drop 60-day guys. It doesn't matter for the math, because they don't open up a spot, but I think we should jettison Capuano (whom I love) ASAP, and I don't think I'd keep Zach Jones over the other options.

[LouisEly]

Including the DL they have 45 players.

 

Must add: Brinson, Hader, Phillips, Wang, M. Diaz, Wren

 

That means they need to drop 11: Boyer, Scahill, Elmore, Wilkins, Flores, Nieuwenhuis, Capuano, Goforth, Rivera, Middlebrooks, one of Reed/Cecchini

 

Reed has a nice OBP but slugging .361 in Colorado Springs isn't going to do it; Wren is outproducing him, is a better CF, and is LH; with Wren and Perez (and adding Brinson and Phillips), Reed is expendable. Goforth/Rivera/Middlebrooks have never been able to produce at the major league level, and Arcia/Villar/Perez have the left side of the infield covered.

 

On the fence: Ventura/Suter/Lambson/Coulter vs. Rowen/Cravy/Cecchini/Jones - could go either way with any of them; Ventura has not pitched well in AA so perhaps they can hide him but he still has a ~9 K/9 rate. Leaning towards Ventura and Lambson, Suter vs. Rowen depends on how they look in September. Cecchini's .712 OPS in AAA puts him last, Cravy 2nd to last. Might put Coulter over those two.

 

If they open up any additional slots via trades the order would be: Coulter, Cooper, Pinto, T. Williams, Taylor

[Outlander]

Including DL the roster is 44, Jones has been gone for a couple of months.

[ZBTMP]

I'd be rather surprised if the Brewers did not protect Taylor Williams.

 

Guys who I'd potentially move on from:

Garza: outside of a warm body, I don't see a point.

Boyer: FA anyway

Nieuwenhuis: He was picked up for nothing and he hasnt done anything to increase his value

Flores: I'm a fan more than most but will need to show some signs of life before the end of the season. If the Brewers don't have enough faith to give him playing time anymore, no sense in carrying him.

Elmore: No longterm upside, not enough production

Wilkins: No longterm upside, not enough production

Scahill: No longterm upside

Rowen: Scahill being called up would indicate he is below him in the organizations mind

Goforth: Never enough sample size to judge a reliever by stats but he never has had good ones

Capuano: Career likely done

Barrios: Shoulder injuries are no joke

Middlebrooks: No longterm upside, not enough production

Cecchini: Admirably cut back the strikeouts, but the elite walk rate is gone. An 88 wRC+ from Colorado Springs is not worth protecting

Wouldn't sweat moving on from:

Peralta: Are the Brewers really going to tender him a contract to sit at AAA? Next month is important for him

Nolin: Brewers got him for free with a "good" elbow. Might be able to sneak him through waivers.

Cravy: He is still cheap, but I have more faith in Wang and Suter currently.

Rivera: has never shown any offense, but he still gives the Brewers a good defensive option if necessary

Adds (in order of priority):

(1) Brinson

(2) Hader

(3) Phillips

(4) T. Williams: Are the Brewers really going to risk losing a guy whose stuff they've compared to Craig Kimbral and he had good control?

(5) M. Diaz: It'd be a tough jump for someone to take him but there are enough teams in "non-compete" mode, I wouldnt risk his upside

(6) Wang: I didnt even have him in my top 50 coming into this year, but he has finally started striking people out and the home runs haven't jumped like I thought they would

(7) Orf: Good strikezone judgement, defensive flexibility, and Brewers seem to like him

(8) Suter: He has done enough to be rewarded with a September call-up

(9) Wren or Rangers PTBNL??: Wren's .419 BABIP will regress, but I can't argue with the production

 

Risks:

Taylor: Sub .300 OBP and sub .100 ISO in AA. Cannot see a team carrying him.

Coulter: Still work in progress defense and hasnt shown an offensive pulse in a long time.

Ventura: Keeps stiking out over a batter per inning at every level. I dont think there is enough upside for someone to take him, but I'd consider protecting him if the numbers work out.

Betancourt/Rijo: Both are young enough to maybe attract some interest, but neither is capable of hitting advanced pitching yet.

[JohnBriggs12]

If they took Perez off the 40 man last October, it's hard to see justifying keeping Flores who's had a much worse season than Perez did last year.

 

Cecchini's a corner IF who's hit 4 HR in over 400 AB's and has posted a .707 OPS? He's not worthy either.

 

Neither are Wilkins, Elmore, Middlebrooks, Nieuwenhuis, and Gofourth.

 

At least 8-10 spots will be available when all is said and done.

 

Will be interesting to see if any guys who still have options like Reed and Rivera but who haven't set the world of fire will maintain their spots as well. There's a risk they'd be claimed by somebody but it wouldn't be earth shattering to lose either with the talent recently acquired.

[FVBrewerFan]

Agree with the obvious guys, but I really hope they find a way to protect guys like Taylor, Roache, Coulter, and Rivera. I don't want to give up yet on Roache's power, and the other 3 are young enough to develop into MLB players. I would protect them before low ceiling guys like Wren or Orf. I think a real house-cleaning is in order for the 40 man, lots of mediocre/bad relief pitchers and AAAA type position players that had their chance.

[CheezWizHed]

I doubt Taylor Williams has too much to worry about with only 25 IP at A+ and coming off TJ surgery. He wasn't in the prospect limelight before his injury, I doubt too many people are going to take a chance on him doing anything at the MLB level.

* I realize we here thought/think highly of him and he was the darling of some media blurbs during the 2015 ST, but I doubt that is enough to get another team to give him a MLB spot with so little MiLB experience and fresh off an injury.

 

Tyrone Taylor is probably a good target for some team.

- Former High draft pick.

- Can play as a 5th OFer right now defensively.

- Still has age on his side (23 next year).

- Jump from AA to MLB isn't too big (less than A+ at least).

 

I'm not saying that is enough for us to protect him, but he might be a strong target for a team to try a reclamation project.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I think Nieuwenhuis sticks around, primarily because I think Brinson starts next year in AAA. Clearing off all of these spots can sound good on paper, but you still need to field an MLB team. There might be some low-hanging fruit to cut from the 40 man, but there can only be 15 that you expect to be in the minor leagues.

 

Ventura will be an interesting case. It's too bad he can't go to the AFL, because he seems like the classic get more info in the AFL guy. After the three locks, I think Diaz (seems like the type of low-level upside guy who would get picked) and Wang, especially if he closes well at AAA, are the next two in line. After that it will provide an interesting window into how the organization views a lot of these guys.

[LouisEly]

I wouldn't be surprised if Nieuwenhuis is brought back in ST as a NRI, but they'll have OF covered - Braun, Santana, Perez, Wren, Broxton are your likely OF next year with Brinson and Phillips also on 40-man. I don't think KN is terrible like some would have you believe, but his competition is Wren, Broxton, and Reed and I'd rather have those three than KN.

[CheezWizHed]

Ironically, KN is a great candidate for a 4th/5th OFer on a playoff team. Good defense at multiple OF positions and 700+ OPS off the bench.

 

But he is maxed out and we aren't looking for 4th/5th OFers. So he doesn't make sense here right now.

[paul253]

I'd drop:

Barrios

Boyer

Capuano

Cecchini

Cravy

Elmore

Flores

Hauser

Liriano

Pina

Scahill

Wilkins

Nieuwenhuis

 

Add

Brinson

Hader

Coulter

Taylor

Phillips

Wang

Williams

M Diaz

 

 

I'd like to see them give Wren a shot this season and if he does ok then add him and let him battle for CF next season with Broxton and Brinson in what should be another lost season.

[Mass Haas]

If you're wondering about the 25-year-old DSL'er with a 0.00 ERA (against kids six years his junior) in his first year of stats of any kind --

 

RHP Alberto Paulino

 

He signed with the Diamondbacks in 2012, but never played for some unknown reason. Then he was released and sat out until the Brewers inked him. That’s how he’s rule 5 eligible.

[nate82]

I think Nieuwenhuis sticks around, primarily because I think Brinson starts next year in AAA. Clearing off all of these spots can sound good on paper, but you still need to field an MLB team. There might be some low-hanging fruit to cut from the 40 man, but there can only be 15 that you expect to be in the minor leagues.

 

 

The Brewers have so many OF's that losing Nieuwenhuis wouldn't hurt as much as you think it will. Next year the Brewers will have Phillips, Brinson, Liriano, Roache and Taylor all vying for a spot in AAA. So yeah Nieuwenhuis would be replaced by Reed or Wren or both.

 

Santana, Braun, Broxton, Reed, and Wren as the OF's next year is pretty good depth with Liriano, Roache, Taylor, and Phillips all in AAA. At some point Brinson will be with the Brewers next year so Nieuwenhuis will more than likely be gone. Other players like Wren or Reed can take over for Nieuwenhuis.

 

 

40 man subtractions:

Flores

Nieuwenhuis

Capuano

Cravy

Goforth

Nolin

Cecchini

Elmore

Scahill

Rowen

Wilkins

Boyer

Middlebrooks

 

40 man down to 31 or 30 if the Brewers put Houser on the 60 day DL they could even remove him from the 40 man.

 

40 man additions:

Brinson

Wren

Taylor

Hader

Wang

Phillips

M.Diaz

Suter

Coulter

J. Ortega (if Houser is on 60-day DL or is removed)

[LouisEly]

No DL of any type in the offseason - Houser would have to be on 40-man roster.

 

Think your list of subtractions is good but would replace Nolin with Rivera. Rivera hasn't hit anywhere, ever, and they have the infield covered with Arcia, Villar, Gennett, and Perez.

[nate82]

No DL of any type in the offseason - Houser would have to be on 40-man roster.

 

Think your list of subtractions is good but would replace Nolin with Rivera. Rivera hasn't hit anywhere, ever, and they have the infield covered with Arcia, Villar, Gennett, and Perez.

 

I am expecting a Gennett trade and Rivera would be someone the Brewers will keep as he can play 2B, SS, 3B and some OF. Now he probably won't hit all that well but defensively he has value for the Brewers.

 

You are right about the No DL in the offseason so keeping Houser on there shouldn't be a problem as once the season starts a 40-man spot will open up as he is put on the 60-day DL. I wouldn't be surprised if Houser loses his 40-man spot in the off season as he is not likely to pitch in 2017.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think Nieuwenhuis sticks around, primarily because I think Brinson starts next year in AAA. Clearing off all of these spots can sound good on paper, but you still need to field an MLB team. There might be some low-hanging fruit to cut from the 40 man, but there can only be 15 that you expect to be in the minor leagues.

 

 

The Brewers have so many OF's that losing Nieuwenhuis wouldn't hurt as much as you think it will. Next year the Brewers will have Phillips, Brinson, Liriano, Roache and Taylor all vying for a spot in AAA. So yeah Nieuwenhuis would be replaced by Reed or Wren or both.

 

Santana, Braun, Broxton, Reed, and Wren as the OF's next year is pretty good depth with Liriano, Roache, Taylor, and Phillips all in AAA. At some point Brinson will be with the Brewers next year so Nieuwenhuis will more than likely be gone. Other players like Wren or Reed can take over for Nieuwenhuis.

 

 

40 man subtractions:

Flores

Nieuwenhuis

Capuano

Cravy

Goforth

Nolin

Cecchini

Elmore

Scahill

Rowen

Wilkins

Boyer

Middlebrooks

 

40 man down to 31 or 30 if the Brewers put Houser on the 60 day DL they could even remove him from the 40 man.

 

40 man additions:

Brinson

Wren

Taylor

Hader

Wang

Phillips

M.Diaz

Suter

Coulter

J. Ortega (if Houser is on 60-day DL or is removed)

 

I'd add Blazek to your subtraction list. I don't see how he can occupy a roster spot after a year where he's posted a WHIP of nearly 1.9. If they do bring him back it will be on a minor league deal. Scahill could earn his way on with a strong finish to the year. He's getting chances.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think Nieuwenhuis sticks around, primarily because I think Brinson starts next year in AAA. Clearing off all of these spots can sound good on paper, but you still need to field an MLB team. There might be some low-hanging fruit to cut from the 40 man, but there can only be 15 that you expect to be in the minor leagues.

 

Ventura will be an interesting case. It's too bad he can't go to the AFL, because he seems like the classic get more info in the AFL guy. After the three locks, I think Diaz (seems like the type of low-level upside guy who would get picked) and Wang, especially if he closes well at AAA, are the next two in line. After that it will provide an interesting window into how the organization views a lot of these guys.

 

They can let Nieuwenhuis go and pick up any of a dozen comparable types who'll be out there as potential fill ins. Those guys are available on minor league deals. Beside, Broxton looks like he's going to claim the CF spot ahead of Brinson's arrival.

[CheeseheadInQC]

They can let Nieuwenhuis go and pick up any of a dozen comparable types who'll be out there as potential fill ins. Those guys are available on minor league deals. Beside, Broxton looks like he's going to claim the CF spot ahead of Brinson's arrival.

 

Let's say Braun, Santana and Broxton open next year as the starting outfield. What other outfielders are you going to have on the roster? Even if Perez functions as the fifth outfielder while also backing up most of the infield spots, that still leaves one hole to fill. Who are the other options? Kyle Wren, he of the fairly absurd home/road splits? Michael Reed, who has struggled this year? If it isn't someone on the 40-man roster, who you'd prefer to keep on the 40-man even if they were in the minors, letting Nieuwenhuis go at best gives you a temporary 40-man spot because you have to add one at some point before the season starts anyway.

 

While I know the pay bump he might get in his first year of arbitration eligibility could factor into things, as sad of a commentary as it might be on the state of hitting depth in baseball, Nieuwenhuis is likely an above-average bench outfielder. There aren't that many guys who can play a credible center field and hit. Once you get past the top 20 it starts to go downhill pretty fast. Even with new guys coming up there is a decent chance that Nieuwenhuis sits comfortably between 30 and 40 on the list of center fielders. I could see them trading him more than cutting him. He might not bring back much, but he has some value.

 

Also, I think you overestimate the quality of minor league free agents. Looking back at the list of guys who actually made major league rosters this year, most seem to be either older all-bat pinch hitter types or guys who can hit for neither average nor power at the big league level. Nieuwenhuis at least gives you some pop. You might have better luck on a waiver claim, like Nieuwenhuis was, but once again that takes up a 40-man spot right away.