The Great PTBNL From Texas Speculation Thread

[MKE81]

I understand the cause for concern over his injury issues, which are legitimate concerns, but saying he's got to be the least wanted prospect just doesn't make sense. The guy was in serious conversations as the 1-1 talent then had TJ before the draft, which cost him over a year. He first hit the mound on June 17 this year then shut down after that, most likely for precautionary reasons given he doesn't require surgery. He will still be 22 the first two months of next season where he'll be starting in A. IF he stays healthy he'll be moved to A+ because of his college experience and stuff. If you think it'll take 5+ years to reach the MLB level (age 27+ years) for someone who dominated college his final 2 years then I don't know what to tell you. His ceiling coming out was a #1-2 if can manage the rotation workload otherwise it's a dominant closer (what did those just fetch on the market?). He's absolutely worth the gamble given Brinson is a long-term CF solution and Ortiz is a #2 ceiling. We got 2 studs already.

 

And at Duke he went 57.2 then 58.1 heading into his Jr year (pitched in sloppy conditions for half his starts limiting his output). Not sure about the relevance of his college innings given he was projected 1-1. Additionally, the other 2 top pitching arms that draft - Brady Aiken (2yrs younger and zero college experience also having TJ same time as Matuella) and Dillon Tate (46.1 IP in college career and 0 as a starter).

 

I'm not saying it absolutely should be him I'm saying it makes sense it could be him given the circumstances. What also makes sense is not naming who you want in case some freak injury happens then it's on the Rangers and you can roll with your next best.

[And That]

He's absolutely worth the gamble given Brinson is a long-term CF solution and Ortiz is a #2 ceiling. We got 2 studs already.

This is what sold me on the idea originally. Matuella has almost as much upside as any pitcher in the minor leagues, Brewers' system, Rangers' system or otherwise. The injury risk is definitely there, and the inability to downplay that risk is what might make Matuella available. It's important to remember that taking on risk is not the same as being foolish, as long as the risk is justifiable and well thought out. Given what the Brewers already got from the Rangers, why not take on some risk and take a shot at increasing the return beyond what you'd otherwise be able to get?

 

Mendez has had injury issues of his own, FWIW, if he's even available.

[brewmann04]

I called his name from the start of this thread and if his medical turns out ok he be a very nice 3 player.

[MKE81]

He's absolutely worth the gamble given Brinson is a long-term CF solution and Ortiz is a #2 ceiling. We got 2 studs already.

This is what sold me on the idea originally. Matuella has almost as much upside as any pitcher in the minor leagues, Brewers' system, Rangers' system or otherwise. The injury risk is definitely there, and the inability to downplay that risk is what might make Matuella available. It's important to remember that taking on risk is not the same as being foolish, as long as the risk is justifiable and well thought out. Given what the Brewers already got from the Rangers, why not take on some risk and take a shot at increasing the return beyond what you'd otherwise be able to get?

 

Mendez has had injury issues of his own, FWIW, if he's even available.

Absolutely. In this specific trade Matuella's worth the risk. But maybe Stearns doesn't want that risk. I think it's safe to say almost everyone wants Mendez but he's most likely not an option. Gut says Matuella but head says Payano (hasn't pitched in 6 weeks) as I'm assuming the reason they didn't agree on a player is didn't have time to dig into medicals, which I could be wrong about. I just hopes it's a pitcher. And I hope Stearns doesn't wait around and makes the decision the end of the first week in September so we can discuss further

[brewmann04]

I think its going to be a pitcher we need as many as possible .

[Never Outhustled]

Matuella was shut down for the rest of the season because of a sprained elbow. That's serious stuff. Not worth the risk at all. It doesn't matter that he was once considered a potential top pick. Top pick pitchers bust all the time. Matuella will be a reliever, if he ever advances past the low minors.his elbow just won't allow him to work a full workload.

 

I think it's going to be Mendez. Totally makes sense since supposedly Stearns is locked in on one guy, but as Stearns said he's letting Texas take the injury risk. Mendez has had past minor elbow issues, and has never been stretched out to a full seasons workload. That's what makes him available. However, unlike Matuella, he's never had surgery and has been healthy 2 years straight.

[brewcrewdue80]

I understand the cause for concern over his injury issues, which are legitimate concerns, but saying he's got to be the least wanted prospect just doesn't make sense. The guy was in serious conversations as the 1-1 talent then had TJ before the draft, which cost him over a year. He first hit the mound on June 17 this year then shut down after that, most likely for precautionary reasons given he doesn't require surgery. He will still be 22 the first two months of next season where he'll be starting in A. IF he stays healthy he'll be moved to A+ because of his college experience and stuff. If you think it'll take 5+ years to reach the MLB level (age 27+ years) for someone who dominated college his final 2 years then I don't know what to tell you. His ceiling coming out was a #1-2 if can manage the rotation workload otherwise it's a dominant closer (what did those just fetch on the market?). He's absolutely worth the gamble given Brinson is a long-term CF solution and Ortiz is a #2 ceiling. We got 2 studs already.

 

And at Duke he went 57.2 then 58.1 heading into his Jr year (pitched in sloppy conditions for half his starts limiting his output). Not sure about the relevance of his college innings given he was projected 1-1. Additionally, the other 2 top pitching arms that draft - Brady Aiken (2yrs younger and zero college experience also having TJ same time as Matuella) and Dillon Tate (46.1 IP in college career and 0 as a starter).

 

I'm not saying it absolutely should be him I'm saying it makes sense it could be him given the circumstances. What also makes sense is not naming who you want in case some freak injury happens then it's on the Rangers and you can roll with your next best.

 

Injuries turn a guy from 93-96 to 87-88. He's lost 2 full seasons now and a 1-1 ranking was given leading up to 2015 season. One he never saw any playing time of. So yes, I am in belief he's the least wanted prospect among Texas Prospects. Like I stated, there's more Minor League Retired floor than there is #1-#2 type SP ceiling at this point. Let's go ahead and say he can be healthy next season. After 2 seasons of injury and a 58 and 1/3 Career High IP. What do you think he'll progress to for full 2017? My answer is 40-52Innings workload tops. Let's proceed to 2018. 64-78 Innings tops. Now, everything will have had to gone perfectly the next 2 seasons to open up his innings limit 30-36. So doing the math lowest and higher. 2019 94-114innings tops. 2020 124-150innings tops. 2021 154-186 innings tops. 2022 184-212 innings tops. 6years from now to have an ability to pitch a Full Season ML workload. That is considering 0 health issues from here on out. Age 28 to take on that #1-2 SP high ceiling as a Rookie. Remember the fear of tailing off at age 30 and beyond? I'm sorry, but the guy is not worth the risk. It'd be different if he had pitched 95+ Innings in a season post High School but 58.1 is his max. 4years and counting. #1 SPs go 215+ #2s 200+ He is a very, very long way post injuries to reach that. The Training wheels on him will be long. Comparing him to Aiken who's pitching now professionally at age 19/20 with 32IP and counting, is not anywhere near a competent comparison. It would be, if Aiken also was sat for the season after his 1st game. And even then, he has the 2+years age working for him where in my projection he's 26 as a Rookie then. That is huge difference, prime age 4years vs. 2.

Dillon Tate in 2015 had 14Games Started with 2 CGs and 103.1 IP adding 9more post draft. Just an fyi, you missed his 2015 season when he became a SP.

 

If you are in belief on Matuella at this point, then the Brewers already have the #1/2 SP in Nathan Kirby in the works. At least Kirby has pitched 113 Innings in a season. So even a cautious approach by Milwaukee he would still likely reach 95IP next season and if done so, team opens up his workload in 2018.

 

The attitude towards Matuella changed when he goes 0 in 2015 and 3 in 2016 Professional Innings pitched with 58.1 being his career high. Had he gone and put 50-60 Innings in by the end of season, or at least made it to the end of the Minor league season healthy it'd be a different kind of attitude on him.

[LouisEly]

Brett Martin is growing on me. I think it will be one of Martin, Pedro Payano, Joe Palumbo, or Jurado.

 

Not-so-secretly hoping for Palumbo so I can say "I told you so". 21 years old, LHP, 84.1 IP, 65 H, 34 BB, 110 K, 1.90 GO/AO in Low-A. Started year as their closer but moved into starting rotation in July.

[wichmae]

Hope this doesnt effect our PTBNL

 

http://www.wfaa.com/sports/mlb/rangers/rangers-pitcher-jeremy-jeffress-arrested-records-show/309200037

[Mudville9]

People are going to start talking about a curse when trading with the Brewers. Dangit Jeremy!

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I doubt it affects the PTBNL only because his checkered past HAD to be factored into the value of the original deal.

[brewmann04]

they agreed on a list of names at the deadline this has no affect whatsoever

[TheCrew07]

they agreed on a list of names at the deadline this has no affect whatsoever

 

Once again, that's not entirely true, PTBNL can be conditional, when the Brewers traded for Sabathia Cleveland got Brantley if the Brewers made the playoffs and would have gotten Green had they not. These trades can be performance based.

 

If you have some inside information that says otherwise that would be awesome, but the I've heard Stearns talk about this issue on 3 different occasions and he never said anything about the terms.

[MrTPlush]

These trades can be performance based.

 

Yes but lets look at this issue with Jeffress specifically. Because if we compare this situation to the Sabathia trade there is no reason to start panicking. That trade was not done last minute and the player we gave up didn't depend on anything specifically tied to Sabathia. I only see two issues here:

 

1) If the player we get depends on whether or not Jeffress gets in trouble.<> Very unlikely if even possible.

 

2) It depends on how many games Jeffress appears in.<> In this situation it doesn't really even matter because they are activating him tomorrow and the likelihood of some lengthy suspension is very unlikely.

 

It would also be pretty dumb if Stearns agreed to take a player based on how many games a reliever plays in. What he does after the trade is not our problem. This trade was also for two players not one so it isn't like all the value they get is from Jeffress. From everything I have heard the only reason there is a PTBNL is due to the fact they didn't have time to iron out the last player(likely due to physicals). In my opinion Stearns is now just using the system to his advantage and waiting till the end of the minor league season in case one blows out an elbow or ACL.

 

I think people are trying to over complicate the PTBNL just because there are multiple names. It probably consists of who Stearns wants and two lesser guys in case doomsday happens with the first player. Honestly I don't even think the player he wants really has injury concerns. He just has the luxury of waiting in case something does pop up.

[MKE81]

These trades can be performance based.

 

Yes but lets look at this issue with Jeffress specifically. Because if we compare this situation to the Sabathia trade there is no reason to start panicking. That trade was not done last minute and the player we gave up didn't depend on anything specifically tied to Sabathia. I only see two issues here:

 

1) If the player we get depends on whether or not Jeffress gets in trouble.<> Very unlikely if even possible.

 

2) It depends on how many games Jeffress appears in.<> In this situation it doesn't really even matter because they are activating him tomorrow and the likelihood of some lengthy suspension is very unlikely.

 

It would also be pretty dumb if Stearns agreed to take a player based on how many games a reliever plays in. What he does after the trade is not our problem. This trade was also for two players not one so it isn't like all the value they get is from Jeffress. From everything I have heard the only reason there is a PTBNL is due to the fact they didn't have time to iron out the last player(likely due to physicals). In my opinion Stearns is now just using the system to his advantage and waiting till the end of the minor league season in case one blows out an elbow or ACL.

 

I think people are trying to over complicate the PTBNL just because there are multiple names. It probably consists of who Stearns wants and two lesser guys in case doomsday happens with the first player. Honestly I don't even think the player he wants really has injury concerns. He just has the luxury of waiting in case something does pop up.

100% Stearns knows who he wants and always has. Like you said, playing it to his advantage in case that person suffers an injury. He has scoutimg reports on everyone he needs to they're not evaluating anything else unless they're following an injured player's recovery.

[brewmann04]

this issue should have no barring on who we get.

[Point Beer Is Best]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/latest-on-rangers-jeremy-jeffress.html

 

MLB has prevented the Rangers from activating Jeffress, as it seems they want to see the results of his blood tests since there is reason to believe drugs may also have been involved (there was a "green leafy substance" in a clear container in the vehicle). They can't suspend him for using marijuana, but it's possible that the MLB may be moving towards doling out suspensions if the situation is egregious enough.

 

Was Gallardo suspended after his arrest? I seem to remember there being sort of a national discussion after Gallardo's arrest where it was pointed out that NFL players in similar situations would be suspended at least one game and notes that MLB has historically been silent on these types of off-field incidents.

[MrTPlush]

Pretty sure the Brewers deactivated him for a day and then reinstated him. It might have been more than one day, but I don't think he missed any starts.

[billymac]

So we should know next week maybe? I don't see any games scheduled past Monday for any league. I looked around and couldn't find anything on playoff schedules. Last year it looks like they ran from Sept 9-20th. I wonder if we need to wait until playoffs are done or if the player we like is done, we can just claim him?

[LouisEly]

If the player requires Rule 5 protection then I'd be surprised if the selection is made prior to the Rule 5 draft. If the player does not need to be protected then it will likely depend on AFL assignment (if assigned, let Texas take the risk and wait until AFL is finished). If the player isn't going to the AFL and isn't eligible for Rule 5, then we would likely hear about the selection by the end of September.

[ewitkows]

Pretty sure they said he wouldn't be named till after the WS

[billymac]

Pretty sure they said he wouldn't be named till after the WS

 

I thought Stearns said at the end of the Minor League season....

 

http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/columnists/tom-haudricourt/2016/08/06/haudricourt-did-brewers-get-enough-texas-trade/88318510/

[brewerfan82]

I think Mendez is unlikely, but if you consider the trade Brinson and Ortiz for Lucroy and PTBNL for Jeffress, we did get Bickford+ for Smith and Mendez is rated similarly to him (#59 and #61 respectively on MLB Pipeline), so maybe it's not out of the realm of possibility.

 

If we somehow grabbed him as the PTBNL and then managed to get De Leon in a Braun package... what an overhaul of the system's top pitching prospects in a year and a half: RHP De Leon (#37), LHP Hader (#38), RHP Ortiz (#57), RHP Bickford (#59), LHP Mendez (#61).

 

Ok, dream over, back to work.

[JackNicholson1974]

I thought I would chime in after reading this entire thread. I think we can clearly eliminate 3 players much talked about in this thread as possibilities. Gallo (can't be), Mendez (already would be), and Matuella (extent of current injury). So coming up with crazy scenarios where we land them is probably not worth the time.

 

I have been a member of these boards (here and LL.net) for a long time and I hold in high regard LouisEly's opinions on draft picks and the such. He has provided a list of pitchers a few times in this thread and if I had to put money on it I would say the PTBNL comes off that list. Payano, Jurado, Palumbo, etc.

[dacrew101]

Can't believe people are still talking about Mendez, not gonna be him