The Great PTBNL From Texas Speculation Thread

[A Swing and A Drive]

My guess is it's Michael Matuella. Since he's returning from injury it seems logical. Plus it could be argued that he has a higher ceiling than Ortiz.

[brewmann04]

Looks like we got the same idea

[jjfanec]

Rosenthal and Tom H have now both said the same thing. Now we know bc of rules it can't be Gallo right? So that leaves Mendez, Ibanez, Taveras, and Guzman as the next group from the mlb pipeline rankings. Is there any of the 3 after Mendez you could see the Brewers liking close Mendez? Taveras is toolsy and very young. Guzman is also young and just got promoted to AAA with Mendez. He would become the best 1st base prospect in the Brewers system. I am wondering if it is those three. Maybe the brewers don't see a huge difference between Mendez, Taveras and Guzman. Maybe they saw something in Mendez they wanted to look at more.

[billymac]

Rosenthal and Tom H have now both said the same thing. Now we know bc of rules it can't be Gallo right? So that leaves Mendez, Ibanez, Taveras, and Guzman as the next group from the mlb pipeline rankings. Is there any of the 3 after Mendez you could see the Brewers liking close Mendez? Taveras is toolsy and very young. Guzman is also young and just got promoted to AAA with Mendez. He would become the best 1st base prospect in the Brewers system. I am wondering if it is those three. Maybe the brewers don't see a huge difference between Mendez, Taveras and Guzman. Maybe they saw something in Mendez they wanted to look at more.

 

I thought I read that if you were a PTBNL that you can't appear in the MLB's until the trade goes through. Gallo got sent down to the minors on 8/2 and didn't appear in the majors since the trade deadline. Could the PTBNL be a list including Gallo and Mendez? That would be a great haul of it was. That would certainly give you pause on announcing. Otherwise I think Mendez with anyone else on a list is a no brainer. I find it odd that both Stearns and Arnold are talking up the pick, just don't see that too often and would think a major piece is coming back.

[MrTPlush]

Gallo was optioned after the trade. Approx. 6pm

 

So by rule I don't think he can be an option.

[jjfanec]

I thought I read that if you were a PTBNL that you can't appear in the MLB's until the trade goes through. Gallo got sent down to the minors on 8/2 and didn't appear in the majors since the trade deadline. Could the PTBNL be a list including Gallo and Mendez? That would be a great haul of it was. That would certainly give you pause on announcing. Otherwise I think Mendez with anyone else on a list is a no brainer. I find it odd that both Stearns and Arnold are talking up the pick, just don't see that too often and would think a major piece is coming back.

 

I thought I had read that Gallo was out because of the rules. Obviously if he was a potential piece then the list includes him and Mendez and everything about this being a prospect on par with the other two makes sense. I do think there is a possibility the staff doesn't love Mendez as much as this board so he is closer to Guzman or Taveras so they want to look. If Rosenthal is right and that it is a high level prospect than I can see two lists

 

Gallo or Mendez if we are wrong and Gallo is actually able to be traded. The pause would make sense too because the staff wants to scout Gallo's swing more. Still doesn't seem likely since people have said he wasn't available.

 

Or

 

Mendez, Taveras, or Guzman. Maybe the staff is bullish on one the the last two guys. Both are young with solid upside so they wanted to make sure they got it right.

 

I think this prospect is going to be better than many are thinking.

[MadThinker88]

Gallo was on the 25 man roster AT THE TIME OF THE TRADE. Hence, he is not eligible to be the PTBNL in the deal.

The date of the trade itself (8/1/16) is an important marker for the rules.

 

Its why the recent draftees are INELIGIBLE for the PTBNL list.

Players on the 25 man roster on that date are not elgible to be PTBNL.

PTBNL cannot be called up to the majors in the time between the trade and the determination of how that person is. Hence, anyone that is on the 40 man and gets a September call-up CANNOT be on the PTBNL listing.

[JosephC]

http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/columnists/tom-haudricourt/2016/08/06/haudricourt-did-brewers-get-enough-texas-trade/88318510/

 

Direct quote from Stearns:

 

“The player to be named later will also be a player we like a lot who will contribute to our system.”

 

Toned down from the language that has been thrown around before now.

 

I can't see anyway the PTBNL is Mendez. Why wouldn't the Brewers have immediately taken him if he was available? No way would the Brewers leave him in the Ranger's system, they would take him so they would have 100% control over his workload.

[jvrocksaz]

Ronald Guzman would be an interesting piece. Great kid who really turned things around following the horrific accident he was involved in a few years back which included a fatality. He was very humbled by it. Our family got to know Ronald real well while he was here during his time in the AZ Fall league last year. He is driven and not spoiled by the big signing bonus he got previously. His success this season, at such a young age, does not surprise me. He is also from the same hometown as Villar.

[splitterpfj]

I can't see anyway the PTBNL is Mendez. Why wouldn't the Brewers have immediately taken him if he was available? No way would the Brewers leave him in the Ranger's system, they would take him so they would have 100% control over his workload.

 

I don't expect it to be Mendez either, but to answer your question, maybe they just ran out of time.

 

This deal was reportedly agreed to with 30 minutes to go before the deadline, with medical reviews conducted in that final half hour. It's possible, whoever the player is, that they just didn't have enough time to review one more player ahead of the deadline.

[JosephC]

This is how I'd group the Ranger's system now:

 

Elite Prospects (generally somewhere around the top 5-10 prospects in all of baseball):

None

 

Top 50 Prospects:

3B/1B-Joey Gallo (cannot be PTBNL)

 

Top 100 Prospects:

LHP-Yohander Mendez

 

Organizational Top 10 Prospects (would be roughly in the top 300 prospects):

2B-Andy Ibanez

OF-Eric Jenkins

OF-Leody Taveras

LHP-Cole Ragans (just drafted, cannot be PTBNL)

1B-Ronald Guzman

3B/SS-Josh Morgan

RHP-Ariel Jurado

 

Role Player:

OF-Ryan Cordell

RHP-Alex Speas (just drafted, cannot be PTBNL)

OF-Jairo Beras

SS/2B-Michael DeLeon

LHP-Brett Martin

RHP-Connor Sadzeck

RHP-Jose Leclerc

RHP-Michael Matuella

LHP-Andrew Faulkner

RHP-Luke Jackson

OF-Miguel Aparicio

SS-Yeyson Yrizarri

RHP-Pedro Payano

RHP-Jonathan Hernandez

C-Jose Trevino

[And That]

I'm going to switch my vote from David Garcia to Mike Matuella, with Michael DeLeon as a backup in case Matuella is injured beyond what the Brewers are comfortable with. DeLeon is 19, a SS, a switch hitter, and playing advanced-A ball. Seems to be four pro-Stearnsian ticks.

[MadThinker88]

This is how I'd group the Ranger's system now:

 

Elite Prospects (generally somewhere around the top 5-10 prospects in all of baseball):

None

 

Top 50 Prospects:

3B/1B-Joey Gallo (cannot be PTBNL)

 

Top 100 Prospects:

LHP-Yohander Mendez

 

Organizational Top 10 Prospects (would be roughly in the top 300 prospects):

2B-Andy Ibanez

OF-Eric Jenkins

OF-Leody Taveras

LHP-Cole Ragans (just drafted, cannot be PTBNL)

1B-Ronald Guzman

3B/SS-Josh Morgan

RHP-Ariel Jurado

 

Role Player:

OF-Ryan Cordell

RHP-Alex Speas (just drafted, cannot be PTBNL)

OF-Jairo Beras

SS/2B-Michael DeLeon

LHP-Brett Martin

RHP-Connor Sadzeck

RHP-Jose Leclerc

RHP-Michael Matuella

LHP-Andrew Faulkner

RHP-Luke Jackson

OF-Miguel Aparicio

SS-Yeyson Yrizarri

RHP-Pedro Payano

RHP-Jonathan Hernandez

C-Jose Trevino

 

Nice listing. Thanks for putting it together (and making those important notations).

[Noche]

My guess is Tavarez, De Leon or Yrizzari with Garcia as a major long shot

[StearnsFTW]

I've made my guess already, but my hope is Taveras. Super-toolsy, young outfielder.

 

Christian Guerrero type.

 

Not sure if blue.

[Austin Tatious]

It's striking how much Texas absolutely destroys the international market. I'd try to replicate their approach. I'd be tempted to woo some of their surrogates who do their dirty work. For example, offer doubling or more salaries for the connected "scouts" or handlers who divert talent to the Rangers.

 

It could be moot if we can finally get an international draft.

[MrTPlush]

It's striking how much Texas absolutely destroys the international market. I'd try to replicate their approach. I'd be tempted to woo some of their surrogates who do their dirty work. For example, offer doubling or more salaries for the connected "scouts" or handlers who divert talent to the Rangers.

 

It could be moot if we can finally get an international draft.

 

We could destroy it too if we could spend $10mil+ and $4mil+ on a single player. We can't do that. The best we can do is hand out all our money to one so-so player like Lara. Which then means we can't sign other players.

[Eye Black]

While Mendez would be a great pick-up, there appears to be a segment of Rangers fans that think their top remaining pitching prospect is RHP Ariel Jurado. Originally from Panama, Jurado turned 20 in January and is now pitching well in AA.

[brewcrewdue80]

It wont be Matuella. Hes hurt and done for the season.

Im believing Ariel Jurado or Pedro Payano are the two scouting on.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/after-long-wait-payano-emerging-for-rangers/#HAZWx2bfABs66q1p.97

 

“He’s one of the priority guys in the organization,” Jaimes said.

 

Payano can throw strikes with all four of his pitches. He throws a curveball and is developing a cutter, but the changeup is the clear best secondary pitch.

 

“The thing that makes the changeup good is he keeps the same arm speed and hand speed,” Jaimes said. “It looks like a good fastball, but it has good depth action and good down action.”

 

I'm thinking he's a guy that's buying low on someone who's heading towards a top 75 type ranking. Just that he's been out now for 1month and I assume when you have choice a,b,c maybe even defg you want to confirm you're choice and see some more reps.

 

Jurado may be advancing quickly but sounds like a No. 3 at best ceiling. Payano or Jurado seem a little like equals but Payano with a 4pitch arsenal and a cpl ticks higher Fastball, may be what you desire over what Jurado's slower FB and higher Control. That is, if Payano pitches again and shows the same ability post injury. If he didn't, then Jurado becomes the safer pick.

[jjfanec]

Jurado would make sense to be the list. Sickens had him as the 6th best prospect in the Rangers system to start the year. Here are his thoughts.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/2/8/10943266/texas-rangers-top-20-prospects-for-2016

 

6) Ariel Jurado, RHP, Grade B: Age 20, posted 2.45 ERA with 95/12 K/BB in 99 innings in Low-A with 3.13 GO/AO ratio, Panamanian right-hander with 90-95 sinker, good curveball, change-up coming along nicely, excellent command and control for his age (or any age really), excellent statistics. Not ranked this highly on other lists but I really like this guy and I think he can be a real stalwart if he avoids injury. Thus, the higher-than-consensus grade and ranking.

 

Preseason lists had Jurado ahead of Mendez quite often. And outside of pipeline most post trade lists I have found have them right next to each other. I think people are too quick to take Mendez off the list because he is a top 100 prospect and guys like Jurado, Ibanez, Taveras and Guzman are not. It could easily be the case that the Brewers like on of that group close to Mendez. The difference between prospect number 80 and 125 is often in the eye of the beholder

[JohnBriggs12]

Guzman got bumped up to AAA a couple days after the trade. I'm still thinking he's the guy the Brewers have in mind and may have asked Texas to promote him for scouting purposes. Stearns mentioned how the return from Texas differed from the Cleveland package in that the prospects coming were closer to major leagues. Guzman falls into that category as well.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Guzman got bumped up to AAA a couple days after the trade. I'm still thinking he's the guy the Brewers have in mind and may have asked Texas to promote him for scouting purposes.

 

There is no way a team would allow another organization to dictate its own player movements like that. The one caveat to that there will be a "hold" on any of the potential PTBNL players to be promoted to the Majors prior to the end of the minor league season. This means no Sept. call ups for a Guzman or Mendez.

 

If I recall correctly, the naming of the player will occur sometime between the end of the minor league season and the end of the World Series. I am beginning to think the naming of the player will occur immediately after the minor league season.

[A Swing and A Drive]

It wont be Matuella. Hes hurt and done for the season.

Im believing Ariel Jurado or Pedro Payano are the two scouting on.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/after-long-wait-payano-emerging-for-rangers/#HAZWx2bfABs66q1p.97

 

“He’s one of the priority guys in the organization,” Jaimes said.

 

Payano can throw strikes with all four of his pitches. He throws a curveball and is developing a cutter, but the changeup is the clear best secondary pitch.

 

“The thing that makes the changeup good is he keeps the same arm speed and hand speed,” Jaimes said. “It looks like a good fastball, but it has good depth action and good down action.”

 

I'm thinking he's a guy that's buying low on someone who's heading towards a top 75 type ranking. Just that he's been out now for 1month and I assume when you have choice a,b,c maybe even defg you want to confirm you're choice and see some more reps.

 

Jurado may be advancing quickly but sounds like a No. 3 at best ceiling. Payano or Jurado seem a little like equals but Payano with a 4pitch arsenal and a cpl ticks higher Fastball, may be what you desire over what Jurado's slower FB and higher Control. That is, if Payano pitches again and shows the same ability post injury. If he didn't, then Jurado becomes the safer pick.

 

I still think it's Matuella. The Brewers could simply want to see updated medicals on him in a few months to see how his injury is progressing. If it's not something they are not comfortable with at that time, they could simply pick someone else from the list provided by the Rangers. I'm hoping it's Leodys Taveras, but I don't understand why they'd need to wait on him if he was being offered.

[MrTPlush]

Leody's Taveras could always be a backup option if the Medicaid are murky after te MiLB season. Which honestly wouldn't be surprising. Or Taveras could get blazin hot and we change our mind about said pitcher.

 

OR maybe the preferred player isn't even a pitcher and the injury thing was a blanket statement. I'd wait even if it was a position player. We have the luxury of waiting even if the preferred player currently has no injury concerns.

[MKE81]

Guzman got bumped up to AAA a couple days after the trade. I'm still thinking he's the guy the Brewers have in mind and may have asked Texas to promote him for scouting purposes. Stearns mentioned how the return from Texas differed from the Cleveland package in that the prospects coming were closer to major leagues. Guzman falls into that category as well.

 

In Stearns making that comment was he referring to Brinson (AAA) and Ortiz (AA), specifically to the PTBNL or the entire package (all 3 players)? Brinson/Ortiz are already in the upper levels of the minors vs the 3 prospects from CLE so his statement holds true as it stands right now.

 

After going back and researching Guzman a lot more in-depth I can see them targeting him given he's still growing into his game and already solid 6'5 frame with the added bonus of him playing a position of need and being a lefty. His AA season this year is showing this. He's still only 21 and will continue to develop. Anyone who watches film on him will see he has a nice fluid swing. His projection is above average hitter with potential plus power while being a solid defender, even if he's only relegated to playing one position (1b). Ibanez, Taveras, Garcia make sense given their tools and age. But we'll have Villar at 2b for several years then Diaz as a Top 100 coming right after that. Taveras is many years away but he'll only be 1-1.5 levels behind Clark/Ray who are already following Brinson, Phillips (all 4 of our guys are Top 100). Garcia is easy 7yrs+ away from MLB level and while it would be great to add a catching prospect at the bottom of the system I just don't see it happening in this specific trade. I understand taking best potential you see and letting the players work it out but in regard to this specific trade if you can net a strong 1b prospect at upper levels in the minors who's still young OR a SP with ace to mid-rotation ceiling you take it. This is why I can see Guzman at/near the top of the list. The only other position player I think makes sense is De Leon given age as he's a legit SS prospect coming up from the very bottom with Arcia already arriving. The 4th piece to the CLE deal was a MLB ready pen arm (Andrew Faulkner anyone?). I don't see Faulkner as the PTBNL!!

 

My final pick on this - I think it'll be one of Mendez, Guzman, Jurado, Payano, Matuella (don't care if he's shut down he's absolutely worth a gamble). Mendez, Guzman just promoted to AAA with Jurado at AA. Payano won't be too far behind for A+/AA. Matuella has ace, or closer, potential with 3yrs college experience. I really hope it's a SP though