Brewers Farm System Rated #1

[igor67]

I don't have a link, but I had come across an article a few days ago that pointed out that for all of the noise about the Pirates being a model franchise all of the young talent that actually was responsible for the 3 playoff appearances was the previous GMs responsibility and the young guys who were supposed to be making them this model have to this point done very little actual developing into productive major leaguers. I don't follow them closely enough to judge if that is legitimate at this moment, but my own suspicion is that without major resources the model of attempting to always cycle talent is doomed to end up looking like the window strategy anyway. There is so much variance in player performance year to year, as well as health and player development that you will end up with clustering of the playoff years regardless. Mostly driven by when you get a critical mass of prospects developing and playing together at a high enough level.

[Ennder]

Pirates have been successful because of a lot of pitching acquired outside of their system that panned out. Liriano, Burnett, Happ, Volquez, Worley etc. These are all pitchers who had a lot of recent failure that suddenly saw revivals in Pit. I don't know if it is because of their pitching coach, defense or just some dumb luck though. But that team has heavily been carried in recent years by mediocre pitching turned good.

[FVBrewerFan]

The one difference between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh is that they have pitching in their system. Milwaukee did not. Hence the moves for Sabathia and Greinke.

 

Not top mention trade for Marcum. Or FA signing of Suppan, Wolf, Lohse, Garza, etc.

[monty57]

The Pirates are having success? Really? How is their past 5 years better than the Brewers run from 2007 to 2012, which you criticize?

 

After their run, the Pirates still have a top 10 farm system, and while they've had a somewhat down year this year (they are still in the WC race), they still have a very bright future.

[Boomer5]

If we draft better, we wont need to tear down and rebuild like this.

 

If you look at our drafts since Braun, its pretty bleak. Hopefully that is changing.

[monty57]

Again, no small market has had a large window where they have made the playoffs for let's say 5 out of 7 years, made multiple World Series, winning

 

To be fair, very few big markets have had a run like that either. It's really hard to make the playoffs year after year, but as long as the arby/pre-arby system exists, I think the best way for a small market team to succeed is to always have a good number of quality pre-arby/arby players on the roster, and the only way to do that is by continually looking for ways to stock the farm. Basically, once you're "there," you just need to add to it more than you take away from it. It's not taboo to trade a prospect for a MLB player, but you also need to be willing to trade MLB guys for prospects. And yes, having some competency in the draft would help.

 

I think teams like the Yankees were very smart this year. With so few "sellers," the market was ripe for selling, so even though they were still "in it," they felt the return they could get was worth punting this season. They are now very well set up for the future. I think too often teams with any chance of making the playoffs refuse to sell, and that's just playing against the odds.

 

To topic, the Brewers have, in a very short period of time, went from one of the worst farms in baseball to one of the best. They have a foundation set at the MLB level, and should be competitive soon, and they have talent all the way down to the rookie level. Things have went really well so far, and for the first time in years I'm excited about the future... just don't screw it up.

[trwi7]

The Pirates are having success? Really? How is their past 5 years better than the Brewers run from 2007 to 2012, which you criticize?

 

When is the last time the Brewers have won 88 or more games in 3 consecutive years? Like the late 70s? Has it ever even happened?

 

They were incredibly unlucky last year. They had the second best record in MLB. Unfortunately for them, the Cardinals had the best record so they didn't automatically get to the NLDS and even unluckier in that the team that had to face in a one game playoff was the team that had the third best record in baseball and had to face a pitcher who had given up 13 earned runs in his last 131 innings.

 

This year they've struggled, no doubt. Liriano got a lot worse, apparently he wasn't listening to the coaches. Cole missed over a month. McCutchen has been awful.

 

But they still have a deep farm system and quality young pieces in the majors. Marte, Polanco, McCutchen if he can rebound, Cole, Taillon and then Bell, Glasnow, Newman, Meadows (which may allow them to trade McCutchen if he gets enough value back), Kuhl and Kingham. They have a chance to be a really, really good team again next year and in the years to come.

[bork]

[

When is the last time the Brewers have won 88 or more games in 3 consecutive years? Like the late 70s? Has it ever even happened?

 

Thanks to the 81 strike, it has never happened.

[rickh150]

The Pirates are having success? Really? How is their past 5 years better than the Brewers run from 2007 to 2012, which you criticize?

 

When is the last time the Brewers have won 88 or more games in 3 consecutive years?.

 

Pirates 2013-2015

Impressive wins of 94, 88, and 98 in season

Disappointing run of....

3 Wildcard games, 2 losses

1 Division series, 1 loss

***This year on pace for 83 wins.

 

In a one game playoff, I'd take the 2008 Brewers ( CC pitching) or the 2011 Brewers ( Greinke pitching) over any of these Pirates teams. The Brewers went for it and gave up part of the farm to get top notch pitching, which is needed to win in the playoffs and tough to just develop on your own or frugally sign in FA.

 

The Brewers lost 3-1 to Phillies in 2008 (90 wins) and won one series vs. the Diamondbacks 3-2 before losing to Cards 4-2 in 2011 (96wins). BothPhillies and Cards won WS. I'd say each team's span is similar with the Brewers 2011 team having the best opportunity to win it all.

 

I'm like most here in that we, as a small market, believe we have to have a good/great farm system to compete and win. The difference in my thinking than most here is I believe we have to use prospects as currency (ala Melvin) to trade when the times for us to win the division/ make a playoff run comes around. Many others here value prospects so much that they won't make the big move when needed, I believe. The idea that small markets can compete/make the playoffs yearly and can keep filling FA losses with prospects year in, year out, is a pipe dream. That winning strategy long term has not been seen in MLB yet for small market teams. Better to build up, patch together, tear down, and build up again than try to be even Steven year in, year out, and compete with the big boys who retain their good players and sign your star free agents and other international stars your team can't afford.

[Mass Haas]

AUDIO via WTMJ: Baseball America's JJ Cooper takes a look at the future of the Brewers

[MadThinker88]

While some like the moves the Brwers made at the deadline and think it's propelled into the top farm system ranking, not everyone shares that opinion.

 

Over on Today's knuckleball, (posted 8/4/16, unable to link but easy to find if u go look for yourself) Jon Heyman graded all 30 teams and moves made at the deadline. Only 2 teams with full A grade are Rangers and Giants, mainly for getting the better in deals with the Brewers.

 

Milwaukee graded at D- and 27th out of 30. Heyman is VERY CRITICAL of talents brought back in the deals. Guys many here are thinking propel the Crew to top farm ranking have the high potential to be major bust candidates, acquired just before their warts are fully exposed.

 

IMHO the farm system is much better off then where it was just a few years ago. For every guy that performed well this season (Diaz, Hader), it's been offset by guys struggling (Nottingham, Lopez, Phillips) or graduating (Arcia- most likely).

 

It will be very interesting to see where the various sources (BA, BP, Sickles, etc) put the system after the season is over. My guess is the Crew has a consensus top 8 system..

[reillymcshane]

While some like the moves the Brwers made at the deadline and think it's propelled into the top farm system ranking, not everyone shares that opinion.

 

Over on Today's knuckleball, (posted 8/4/16, unable to link but easy to find if u go look for yourself) Jon Heyman graded all 30 teams and moves made at the deadline. Only 2 teams with full A grade are Rangers and Giants, mainly for getting the better in deals with the Brewers.

 

Milwaukee graded at D- and 27th out of 30. Heyman is VERY CRITICAL of talents brought back in the deals. Guys many here are thinking propel the Crew to top farm ranking have the high potential to be major bust candidates, acquired just before their warts are fully exposed.

 

IMHO the farm system is much better off then where it was just a few years ago. For every guy that performed well this season (Diaz, Hader), it's been offset by guys struggling (Nottingham, Lopez, Phillips) or graduating (Arcia- most likely).

 

It will be very interesting to see where the various sources (BA, BP, Sickles, etc) put the system after the season is over. My guess is the Crew has a consensus top 8 system..

The weird thing was Heyman totally based his grade on the Lucroy trade. He said nothing of the Smith for Bickford deal.

 

Here's the article:

 

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/inside-baseball-with-jon-heyman/heyman-grading-mlb-teams-trade-deadline/

[MadThinker88]

Thanks for adding the link (the limits of working on an iPad)...

If you read the Giants analysis, you see the opinion on guys going to the Crew...

[danzig6767]

 

The question really is, do you want to pseudo compete for 6 years and make the playoffs twice or do you want to cycle talent and be competitive most years? There will certainly be down years here and there along the way, but never a complete rebuild.

 

Our 6 year run wasn't even that great, it was just so much better than the 20 years which came before it that fans tended to over dramatize what was happening. If not for an epic Mets collapse in 2008 the Brewers only make the playoff once in that entire window, and that would have been awful considering the hitting talent that successfully made it through the minors. We simply never had the pitching to truly complete, our run differential in NLCS was awful, the Brewers were mauled, they barely beat an overachieving AZ.

I definitely prefer what Stearns is doing compared to what Melvin/Attanasio did.

 

That said, an even more epic Braves collapse is the only reason St. Louis made the playoffs in 2011 and their starting pitching was mediocre to bad all through the playoffs outside of a few gems by Carpenter. Yet they still won a ring largely on the backs of their offense and very productive bullpen, including some bullpen arms acquired at the deadline in a trade for a young Rasmaus which most Cardinals fans hated.

 

The playoffs today can often be a crapshoot. Hell, the Dodgers had both Kershaw and Greinke, yet did very little in the playoffs vs teams with inferior starting pitching. Kansas City made the World Series in back to back years with nothing special starting pitching, but a great bullpen.

 

Baseball isn't the NBA where the best few regular season teams usually always make the Finals. The biggest key in baseball is simply getting into the playoffs party. Sure there will be favorites, but fairly often those favorites get bounced earlier than expected because in 5 and 7 game series, baseball can be a very volatile sport for a variety of reasons. That's why for as good as the Cubs are this year, them losing in the first round of the playoffs to an inferior team wouldn't shock me at all.

[Thundercat32]

I respect Heyman when it comes to baseball rumors. But, I don't place a lot of value in his personal views on talent acquisitions. I give it more credence than some buffoon like the Mad Dog, but Heyman is essentially Tom Verducci, who has gotten worse & worse since he started sharing air time with Harold Reynolds.

[Ennder]

Heyman is not a viable source of information when it comes to talent so who cares what he says.

 

Getting a top farm system is not hard though, it is keeping a top system while putting talent into the majors that is tough. This is nice to see but it isn't a huge deal either.

[trwi7]

He based his grades on people that were willing to talk to him. If he asked two different people, the Brewers would probably end up with an A. It's just that the people he did talk to thought our moves were crap. I'll listen to what Jim Callis says or what the guys at BA say over a couple of random executives that Heyman talks to.

[logan82]

Getting a top farm system is not hard though, it is keeping a top system while putting talent into the majors that is tough. This is nice to see but it isn't a huge deal either.

That is the key and it is where we screwed up last time around. We gutted the farm and focused on short term gains.

[TheCrew07]

The playoffs today can often be a crapshoot. Hell, the Dodgers had both Kershaw and Greinke, yet did very little in the playoffs vs teams with inferior starting pitching. Kansas City made the World Series in back to back years with nothing special starting pitching, but a great bullpen.

 

I think that's an oversimplification of what happens. I've long made attempts to convince people that playoff baseball is much different because of the off days... playoff baseball is about best on best more so than who has the best team. This reliever trend which is attributed to KC actually started in 2011 with the Cards. In a series with off days the Brewer pitching simply didn't match up best on best.

 

I've haven't done a very good job convincing people of how different playoff baseball truly is, what appears random really isn't. Being on a roll matters, but not as much as the match-ups do.

[DR28]

I'm absolutely stoked about our rotation in a few years.

 

Nelson

Hader

Ortiz

Davies

 

Honestly I wouldn't mind Bickford as our closer.

[Thundercat32]

Heyman is not a viable source of information when it comes to talent so who cares what he says.

 

Getting a top farm system is not hard though, it is keeping a top system while putting talent into the majors that is tough. This is nice to see but it isn't a huge deal either.

 

I understand your point, but I don't know that we can be so dismissive. Look at all of the money & other attempts the Angels have made to put a winner on the field. Their one accomplishment? They drafted Mike Trout 25th in the 2009 draft. Now, he's kept them in the worst spot you can be, mediocre for a half-decade, but without Trout the Angels are the joke of baseball.

 

If Brinson is a difference maker, the way Wil Myers has turned out to be, or even approaching Mike Trout-level (hey it's fun to dream!), then this is far from "isn't a huge deal". The same goes for Gilbert Lara. He may end up being a bust, or he may be the next Carlos Correra.

 

We're a small-market team that has to take boom-or-bust risks to have a chance at anything meaningful. The mere fact the organization is starting to realize this---is a huge deal!

 

 

Edit: For what it's worth, this is the same principle for why I was so keen on trading Lucroy after his MVP-worthy 2014 season. We had a "Go Big or Go Home" draft that year with 3 top 50 picks. We took boom-or-bust players with Kodi Medeiros, Jacob Gatewood, and Monte Harrison. That's the perfect time to move Lucroy for 3 more big boom-or-bust potential players. The real value in boom-or-bust players is collecting several of them, within a short time frame so they'll have the same window for their arbitration clocks & maturation process, which increases your odds that you hit on at least one or two and hopefully more.

[danzig6767]

The playoffs today can often be a crapshoot. Hell, the Dodgers had both Kershaw and Greinke, yet did very little in the playoffs vs teams with inferior starting pitching. Kansas City made the World Series in back to back years with nothing special starting pitching, but a great bullpen.

I think that's an oversimplification of what happens. I've long made attempts to convince people that playoff baseball is much different because of the off days... playoff baseball is about best on best more so than who has the best team. This reliever trend which is attributed to KC actually started in 2011 with the Cards. In a series with off days the Brewer pitching simply didn't match up best on best.

 

I've haven't done a very good job convincing people of how different playoff baseball truly is, what appears random really isn't. Being on a roll matters, but not as much as the match-ups do.

I know that it happened with St Louis in 2011 given i mentioned it in the post you quoted. They largely rode their bullpen and offense to a title through the playoffs. Boston was fairly similar in 2013. Their rotation outside of Lester was very mediocre, but their bullpen and offense were very good in the playoffs. Then there were the two Royals teams with a mediocre rotation.

 

Between the off days in the playoffs and managers having to worry much less about overuse of their better relief pitchers given the season is ending, bullpens in the playoffs now have become nearly as important as who the starters are so long as the starters don't flat out implode very early in a game.

 

A manager can pull a kind of struggling starter in say the 3rd or 4th inning, put in their fourth or fifth starter who wouldn't start games anyways, and simply try to keep that game close enough until the better relievers can come in. St. Louis, Boston, and KC did that multiple times during their playoff runs.

 

Obviously having some ace starters can be huge in the playoffs. Lester was big in 2013 and Bumgarner was epic in 2014. Even aces can fail though in the playoffs. Great bullpens usually are reliable. Given how hard it is to develop upper tier starters, how expensive they become after six years, and their huge cost in trades, i get why so many contending teams today are trying to build very good and deep bullpens. A basic cost and supply/demand issue. If we lack more than a high quality starter or two and can't acquire another, just get as many of these sub-3 ERA, good to great WHIP, and high K/BB ratio relievers as possible and let them take over still close playoff games from the 6th inning on vs keeping a just solid starter in there who has worse numbers than all of those relievers.

[Austin Tatious]

I'm absolutely stoked about our rotation in a few years.

 

Nelson

Hader

Ortiz

Davies

 

Honestly I wouldn't mind Bickford as our closer.

 

Bickford as a closer is a definite possibility, and he may thrive there. But he could still develop as a mid rotation starter. He's said to have good movement on his fastball. But he needs a nice third pitch. He's still very young and has been a number one pick twice, so he's seen as talented. If he's a good #3 starter, that would be phenomenal.

[Austin Tatious]

The one difference between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh is that they have pitching in their system. Milwaukee did not. Hence the moves for Sabathia and Greinke.

 

Garrett Cole is a great example of a high pick on a pitcher that had a good result. I'd love to follow that pattern at some point soon. That doesn't mean you force it where it's not available. It was available in 2016 but it may not be in 2017. It's early, but there are some strong position players in the 2017 draft that may be enticing. You don't take a mid-rotation starter over a monster position player talent.

[MadThinker88]

It will be an interesting dynamic looking at the selection of Ray & acquiring Brinson vs passing on the pitchers in the 1st round in the 2016 draft (until the Crew's 2nd selection).