Brewers Farm System Rated #1

[NYChez]

The Brewers' farm system was ranked dead last just 5 years ago (when the team was peaking). Was it around 2006 when the system was previously top-ranked? This appears to be a 10-year cycle, but with Stearns' approach (with prospects spread amongst all levels), once the MLB team starts succeeding, there shouldn't be as much subsequent crash and burn as was suffered last season.

[mattyo]

The Brewers' farm system was ranked dead last just 5 years ago (when the team was peaking). Was it around 2006 when the system was previously top-ranked? This appears to be a 10-year cycle, but with Stearns' approach (with prospects spread amongst all levels), once the MLB team starts succeeding, there shouldn't be as much subsequent crash and burn as was suffered last season.

 

They were #28 as recently as 2014

[MKE81]

For the most part I'd say primary focus has to be acquiring as much pitching as possible at this point. good start with the two this week, but keep them coming in any future deals/drafts. Developing all of 1 pitcher during our last rebuild ended up being the overall downfall, if there was a steady pipeline of pitching the last several years they'd have been able to keep being competitive for a long time instead of just a few year window. And of course wouldn't have had to do the Lohse/Garza/Wolf type deals. As others mentioned elsewhere today a re-org of pitching development in the minors seems well overdue.

 

I agree to a certain extent because we have a good pipeline of SPs at various levels already now after the trades, which is why I'm hoping the PTBNL is Mendez too (or Matuella - only because I like the deal in general to begin with so take a risk here with a top first round talent). But, if it's Mendez, you're adding him to a list of Hader, Ortiz, Bickford, Lopez, Ponce, Kodi, Woodruff, Perrin, Chang, Peralta, Diplan, Burnes, etc (some might end up in pen though). Having Santana up now with the system of Brinson, Phillips, Ray, Clark you have great high level talent in the OF with other players like Reed, Broxton as well so we're pretty deep there. Arcia is up now but also have rest of IF filling out at Diaz, Erceg, Nottingham as of now. Really don't have any legit catching prospects other than Nottingham and he most likely won't stick there. Can always find this spot through FA too but it's nice to have a prospect that can stick on the defensive side. Need more "top talent" depth at each of these IF positions and I'd focus on that while also continuing to add SPs as some of those could also be traded if we're deep enough there.

[monty57]

Now that they've reached the pinnacle, one would hope future deals can focus on both future and current team needs and not just prospects in return. The building of the farm system is phase one.

 

 

Stearns did pick up guys like Carter and Villar prior to this season in addition to a lot of less successful pick-ups of Kirk N, Flores, etc. By no means has he solely focused on the minor league, so it really depends on what you mean by "deals." If you are looking for him to trade away his prospects for short-term MLB "fixes," you will probably be disappointed, but I think the team will look to get a little more talent out of free agency this offseason, and at some point in the next few years will really make a splash in free agency.

 

The good thing is that the farm will be how they supplement their MLB team with premium talent, which is something we haven't seen since "the first wave" ended with Yo and Braun coming up 8-9 years ago. With the strong farm, we can have a few quality guys making their way onto the roster every year, and that stream started last night with Arcia. Next year, we will probably see Brinson, Hader, and maybe Ortiz and Phillips, along with more "role players" like Wren and some bullpen guys. With talent throughout the system, and with a defined strategy of continuing to add talent to the farm, this should continue indefinitely.

 

Assuming Susec can be a decent MLB starter, and Brinson will be ready sometime next year, we really don't have any huge holes to fill in our position players (Braun, Brinson, Santana, Carter, Gennett, Arcia, Villar, Susec with Perez at super-utility). Most upgrades there should hopefully come from the farm, which could allow us to have decent "MLB proven" guys to trade in future years as the prospects force their way onto the roster.

 

The needed upgrades will be in our pitching. Thankfully, we have more pitching talent in the minors than I can ever remember. But my guess, and I know there are some who don't believe this is possible, is that when they feel they're getting ready to be good again, they will spend a lot of money and find a TOR starter in free agency, and slot guys like Hader, Ortiz and Bickford in behind him. Depending on how quickly the guys develop, this could be in the not-too-distant future.

 

Of course there will always be players who don't pan out, and holes that we will fill through whatever means possible, but in general no, I don't think Stearns turn his focus away from adding talent to the farm. Small market teams can never have too much talent on the farm, as it's the only way they can ever hope to be good for more than a short "window' of time.

[MrTPlush]

Another year of prospect pickups like this, and we could compete with the cubs.

 

It won't because the fire sale is completed. We have no Gomez/Lucroy/Smith/Jeffress left. There is potentially Thornburg if the reliever market gets crazy next July again and MAYBE Braun. Gone are the days of massive Top 100 prospect hauls.

[wichmae]

Another year of prospect pickups like this, and we could compete with the cubs.

 

It won't because the fire sale is completed. We have no Gomez/Lucroy/Smith/Jeffress left. There is potentially Thornburg if the reliever market gets crazy next July again and MAYBE Braun. Gone are the days of massive Top 100 prospect hauls.

You could probably see a Villar trade or moving on from Guerra or Nelson. Those all could net a decent return. Braun probably wont be getting you a ton back. Hopefully some of the other guys like Jungmann, Peralta, and Domingo rehab some value and become candidates as well.

[FVBrewerFan]

I'm not so sure. You still have Braun, Nelson/Guerra, and relievers. (Relievers could be anyone by this time next year.) Even Villar could be moved. Not suggesting he should, just saying there's that option. Probably not three Top 100 guys again next year, but they have some pieces to move yet.

[FVBrewerFan]

Now that they've reached the pinnacle, one would hope future deals can focus on both future and current team needs and not just prospects in return. The building of the farm system is phase one.

 

Not there yet. They have a future need everywhere until proven otherwise.

[BeerFan]

If Lucroy doesn't veto the Cleveland trade we probably aren't number 1 just because we have two less top 100 guys

[FVBrewerFan]

If Lucroy doesn't veto the Cleveland trade we probably aren't number 1 just because we have two less top 100 guys

 

One less Top 100 guy. Plus they would have had two other prospects. But I agree, probably wouldn't be #1 without a big name like Brinson.

[trwi7]

If Lucroy doesn't veto the Cleveland trade we probably aren't number 1 just because we have two less top 100 guys

 

One less Top 100 guy. Plus they would have had two other prospects. But I agree, probably wouldn't be #1 without a big name like Brinson.

 

No, it would've been two. Mejia was only in Baseball America's top 100 list, not MLB Pipeline's.

[rickh150]

Nice story and pretty cool ranking! Congrats go to DS on this huge undertaking and massive overhaul....

 

Like others, in my mind, this isn't a #1 system yet because sooo many top 20 guys are struggling. Top 10? Yes. Top 5? Maybe. Nonetheless, great turnaround from 2 seasons and a huge confidence boost to Brewer fans everywhere!

[MKE81]

Not every Top 100 prospect who ends up having an impactful MLB career excels every step of the way in the minors. Guys are young for their level so their will be hiccups. Doesn't mean their tools are disappearing

[The stache]

"Hope is kindled."

[The stache]

Exactly. I temper my view of Arcia's AAA performance with knowledge that he was 5 years younger than the average competition.

 

He's good enough defensively that he can play now, get comfortable at the Major League level, and work on his hitting as he goes. His glove immediately makes us better. When was the last time we had a perennial Gold Glove talent in Milwaukee?

 

Not every Top 100 prospect who ends up having an impactful MLB career excels every step of the way in the minors. Guys are young for their level so their will be hiccups. Doesn't mean their tools are disappearing

[splitterpfj]

If Lucroy doesn't veto the Cleveland trade we probably aren't number 1 just because we have two less top 100 guys

 

One less Top 100 guy. Plus they would have had two other prospects. But I agree, probably wouldn't be #1 without a big name like Brinson.

 

No, it would've been two. Mejia was only in Baseball America's top 100 list, not MLB Pipeline's.

 

It depends on when you read the list .... someone graduated a few days ago, and Mejia is now number 100.

[TheCrew07]

His glove immediately makes us better. When was the last time we had a perennial Gold Glove talent in Milwaukee?

 

We covered this yesterday on the MLB forum but Alcides Escobar is the best defensive SS to come through the organization in my opinion. He was just crapped by many posters on the MLB forum at the time because he wasn't JJ Hardy and the "Brewers won't be able to compete with him" hyperbole... except you know he was good enough to be the SS on a World Series winning team... The gold glove is less about defense than offense, but Hardy now has 3 Gold Gloves as well. JJ made every play he could get to, he was awesome that way, but he didn't have Escobar's range or athleticism after that ankle injury.

 

As an aside I had forgotten Jeter won so many Gold Gloves, bleh.

[MrTPlush]

"When was the last time we had a perennial gold glove talent?"

 

Like a year. Carlos Gomez played gold glove defense every year.

[rickh150]

. Small market teams can never have too much talent on the farm, as it's the only way they can ever hope to be good for more than a short "window' of time.

 

It's the way small markets have A short window of time..... A long window has never existed for small market teams.

[trwi7]

. Small market teams can never have too much talent on the farm, as it's the only way they can ever hope to be good for more than a short "window' of time.

 

It's the way small markets have A short window of time..... A long window has never existed for small market teams.

 

I think the Rays proved that small markets can have large windows. Now that went away after Friedman left and pretty much every move they've made since he left has been a disaster but they were a really good team for a number of years.

 

The Pirates, despite their down year made the playoffs 3 straight years and would've been the first wildcard every year, they've just had to face Bumgarner and Arrieta the last two wildcards. It's unlucky for them that the wildcard turned into a 1 game playoff instead of just the first wildcard making it and they're poised for another run next year despite their down year this year.

 

It's all about cycling talent. You keep as many core players as you can and the ones you can't keep, either because you don't have the budget or they want to get to free agency as fast as possible, whatever the case may be, you trade them a couple of years before they reach free agency to maximize their value. That way you keep the system filled with young, cheap talent. You may lose out on a couple of wins the next year or two but you keep the talent flowing and new waves coming through.

[homer]

Pirates are a good model. They are "down" a little this year but have tons of talent in the minors. Trading Melancon was a great move. That is how you sustain success in a small market.

[Mass Haas]

AUDIO via WSSP Wed. 8/3: Jim Callis of MLBPipeline.com discusses the Brewers' #1 system ranking

[TheCrew07]

. Small market teams can never have too much talent on the farm, as it's the only way they can ever hope to be good for more than a short "window' of time.

 

It's the way small markets have A short window of time..... A long window has never existed for small market teams.

 

As I've posted on this literally hundreds of times, I do not subscribe to the window theory, rebuilding should never be necessary, retooling is the way to go. I agree that the Pirates were very shrewd, that's the kind of thing that many of us have been talking about for a long time... you make moves based on what's best for your long term outlook as an organization, every time we suggested moving a piece on the MLB forum it was considered laughable because "we were still competing". On sports radio for 2 days it's been "how could the Pirates trade their closer when they competing?", well the answer is simple, but people have to be willing to look past the antiquated "window" model that most professional sports franchises operate on.

 

The question really is, do you want to pseudo compete for 6 years and make the playoffs twice or do you want to cycle talent and be competitive most years? There will certainly be down years here and there along the way, but never a complete rebuild.

 

Our 6 year run wasn't even that great, it was just so much better than the 20 years which came before it that fans tended to over dramatize what was happening. If not for an epic Mets collapse in 2008 the Brewers only make the playoff once in that entire window, and that would have been awful considering the hitting talent that successfully made it through the minors. We simply never had the pitching to truly complete, our run differential in NLCS was awful, the Brewers were mauled, they barely beat an overachieving AZ.

 

Short term solutions will rarely be the answer for Milwaukee, the more short term we operate the shorter the competitive window becomes.

[rickh150]

. Small market teams can never have too much talent on the farm, as it's the only way they can ever hope to be good for more than a short "window' of time.

 

It's the way small markets have A short window of time..... A long window has never existed for small market teams.

 

As I've posted on this literally hundreds of times, I do not subscribe to the window theory, rebuilding should never be necessary, retooling is the way to go. I agree that the Pirates were very shrewd, that's the kind of thing that many of us have been talking about for a long time... you make moves based on what's best for your long term outlook as an organization, every time we suggested moving a piece on the MLB forum it was considered laughable because "we were still competing". On sports radio for 2 days it's been "how could the Pirates trade their closer when they competing?", well the answer is simple, but people have to be willing to look past the antiquated "window" model that most professional sports franchises operate on.

 

The question really is, do you want to pseudo compete for 6 years and make the playoffs twice or do you want to cycle talent and be competitive most years? There will certainly be down years here and there along the way, but never a complete rebuild.

 

Our 6 year run wasn't even that great, it was just so much better than the 20 years which came before it that fans tended to over dramatize what was happening. If not for an epic Mets collapse in 2008 the Brewers only make the playoff once in that entire window, and that would have been awful considering the hitting talent that successfully made it through the minors. We simply never had the pitching to truly complete, our run differential in NLCS was awful, the Brewers were mauled, they barely beat an overachieving AZ.

 

Short term solutions will rarely be the answer for Milwaukee, the more short term we operate the shorter the competitive window becomes.

 

The Pirates are having success? Really? How is their past 5 years better than the Brewers run from 2007 to 2012, which you criticize?

 

It's also ironic to say that the Pirates have to trade their closer for prospects to move past the window theory, meaning they should always be competitive if they have a constant stream of help from the minors. I argue that unless they have a window where they put more resources/money/focus to the MLB club, they will usually be a .500 Pirate's club sniffing the playoffs here and there, just like a short term solution Brewer's 2012-2014 Brewers team which you didn't like the model for (but with younger players).

 

I like the rebuild. I like what we are doing. Yet, when we, Lord willing, compete for playoff spots in a few years, I hope that we will take our shots some years and make the needed trade or FA signing to get us past just a contender to favorite status. If that hurts our prospect ranking, so be it. The goal is a championship, not to be kinda avg/good year in, year out.

 

We are an ant among elephants in the baseball world, and the question of should we pool resources to compete, creating windows, is obviously yes. We can't compete for a title without tearing down, building up, tearing down, building up, etc. We're doing that now! Tearing down the MLB team for minor league prospects..... Getting an influx of talent to hopefully compete for the playoffs again someday. Yet, if that is all we're after and if we have this dilusion that we can win titles by just having a great farm system without sacrificing our minor league system for key players at the right time ( window), we will be baseball's version of the #8 seed in the NBA.

 

Again, no small market has had a large window where they have made the playoffs for let's say 5 out of 7 years, made multiple World Series, winning 1. Hasn't been done. Why should we be shooting for this then when only a few of the elephant big markets have done this? For me, let's build a strong base ( which DS has), bunch our "good" prospects together as best we can to allow them to play together for multiple years in the minors, have bumper crops of prospects come up within a couple years of each other, and then add key FA and make key trades using our minor league prospects to bolster our MLB team. This should give us a 3 to 5 year window where we can have legitimate hope to bring a championship home. Then FA sets in, we lose these top talents (perhaps trade a few) and we look to build again.

 

It's the market and economic system we play in, and if we want a championship, we have to be willing to take shots when the time is right.

[homer]

The one difference between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh is that they have pitching in their system. Milwaukee did not. Hence the moves for Sabathia and Greinke.