What are our next moves?

[QuevedosTongue]

There seemed to be a connection between Braun and Atlanta right before the trade deadline, insinuating that they offered to trade for Braun for a very small return to the Brewers. But the Brewers rebuffed them and they went and got Kemp instead. To that end, I'm not so sure he even gets past Atlanta on the waiver wire, as they can take another shot at getting Braun for a deep discount.

 

I don't think the Braves were interested in Braun as much as they were interested in a usable player with a relatively large contract that a team might want to rid themselves of. Because the Braves wanted no part of Hector Olivera any more. That's why he was flipped for Matt Kemp, who isn't any good any more, but he's not Hector Olivera. Now, instead of paying Olivera $32 millions to stay away, they pay Kemp $60 million to play, even if it isn't very well.

 

Bottom line is that I just don't see anybody claiming Braun.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Braun could really help a contender - that said he's also still very valuable to the Brewers, so they're not going to just let him walk if a team claims him.

 

With Cespedes going on the DL and other AL teams in contention still looking for bats, Braun will get claimed when put through waivers. I doubt a trade or transaction gets done, though. I think the best time to try trading him would be this or next year's offseason, when another year of $ is off the books and an AL team looking for a DH/OF bat looks at the FA market for those players and doesn't want to pay more for a lesser player than Braun.

[reillymcshane]

 

Bottom line is that I just don't see anybody claiming Braun.

I think someone would, but if he did go through, I wouldn't be surprised. But it only takes one team to go after him and be willing to take on his contract. Who would claim his is another interesting exercise in speculation, but it wouldn't just be with this year in mind. Teams looking to add a bat for the next few years might want him. But just a guess.

[adambr2]

There was an article on CBS mentioning Braun and waivers. The guy thought he'd be likely to clear because teams would be afraid the Brewers would let him go, didn't make any sense to me. Teams like the Dodgers, Giants, and others with tons of money should claim in a second and hope MKE just lets him walk. His contract is cheaper than anything they can sing in FA anytime soon.

One problem is that several of the big market teams have exceeded the luxury tax threshold last year, and will end up paying significant penalties by crossing that line again this year (it was $189M last year - don't know what it will be in 2016). The Dodgers and Yankees are in the 50% tax bracket on any overage (they've crossed the line four years in a row or more). The Red Sox and Giants also paid the luxury tax last year as well, so anything over the threshold will cost them a 30% premium since it will only be their second year in a row crossing the line. If a team crosses the threshold for the first time, the penalty is 17.5% of the overage.

 

This doesn't mean a team won't claim Braun, but it might give a few of them pause to do so. The Giants, for instance, already have around $160M dedicated to about 12 guys next year, and they just might not want the additional salary. Again, doesn't mean they wouldn't do it, but they might think long and hard about it.

 

In the end, I agree that someone would likely want Ryan, but it might not be as clear cut as we think.

 

I agree that Braun's contract is a relative bargain, but teams just don't see it that way. I think GMs are generally cautious with players like Braun, and just because Braun is worth the money now doesn't mean they're convinced he will be in 3 years given his past.

 

I see Braun most likely clearing. Braun has drawn trade interest, but I haven't heard about any team that was interested without us eating a substantial portion of the remainder. I think Braun could draw August interest, but I think any interested parties would wait for him to clear and then try to negotiate with us to pay some of the deal in return for prospects, rather than risk biting the bullet on the entire thing with a waiver claim.

[madbad2000]

Don't forget that Braun has a pretty robust No Trade Clause. So if a team that is not on his approval list claims him, you still need to work out an acceptable trade, compensation for Braun to waive his NTC and THEN deal with absorbing the rest of his contract. That is a lot of hoops to jump through and some team MAY think that is worth it to get his bat which is obviously elite. I don't see him as a realistic August trade candidate. The Dodgers would be the best bet if it does all the way. This offseason at the earliest if at all.

[MrTPlush]

Actually if we put Braun on waivers and a team claims him I am pretty sure we could just let him go even if they are on his no trade list. It isn't a trade so a no trade list doesn't do much for him.

[adambr2]

Hypothetically, what if Braun was waived, claimed by a team on his no trade list, and the Brewers let him walk? Would he be required to report to that team?

[madbad2000]

And I would think that the Brewers would never do that to such a valuable piece of the franchise. Stearns has said as much that Braun is elite and would require elite value to trade. The contract is not hindering our franchise one bit, regardless of what talking heads keep mentioning.

[monty57]

I don't think management is interested in stripping all the talent from the roster. Rather, I think they have built a "base" on which they will now build.

 

We traded Lucroy because of his relatively short team control and worry about another concussion destroying his trade value (i.e. it would have been stupid not to trade him). We traded a couple of "proven" young relievers because the market was unbelievably strong for them, and the return was impossible to pass up. We held onto one of the three (Thornburg) because we still wanted to keep some talent in Milwaukee. We did not trade Braun because the demand wasn't there. Teams (like Atlanta) wanted to "take him off the Brewers' hands," while the Brewers would rather eat salary and receive top prospects back. Right now, I think the likely scenario is that Braun will remain a Brewer.

 

If we are blown away in a trade, then anyone is on the market, but otherwise, I think we can see the path to the future:

 

With Arcia coming up and Susec probably taking over as starting catcher, we have our offense lined up for opening day 2017, with the caveat that Brinson could start in AAA for a couple of months. A lineup consisting of Braun, Brinson, Santana, Carter, Gennett, Villar, Arcia, Susec, with Perez as super-utility is not terrible. There is not a spot that screams "get rid of this guy," and we don't have a looming free agent contract we need to trade off.

 

Our rotation will likely include Nelson, Davies, Guerra, Hader as the top four, with Garza and Anderson around for the fifth starter role. I'd say Anderson #5 with Garza either cut or relegated to "long man." I'd love to see him get hot so we can trade him in a couple of weeks, but if that doesn't happen we're paying him anyhow, so keeping him as "long man/injury insurance" wouldn't be the end of the world. It makes no sense to sign a so-so starting pitcher FA, and I don't think we're ready to sign a TOR SP FA, so unless someone blows us away with an offer for Nelson or Guerra, I don't think much will be done. 2017 will be a year to see how they do before more SP rises from the minors.

 

If the market remains crazy for relievers in the offseason, it's possible we make more trades, but I can't see anyone giving up much for anyone but Thornburg. If we hold onto these guys, we put Thornburg at closer and build from there, probably signing some FA "fliers" trying to catch some lightning. With basically a full season at closer by next trade deadline, if Thornburg can keep up his K:9 rate, he could get a massive return next trade deadline if we decide to sell at that point. The bullpen at this time seems to be a good area for teams in the Brewers' position to let "live armed" guys play to see if they can move from "little value" to "I'll give you our top prospect" value pretty quickly.

 

There will certainly be moves made going forward, but barring an offseason Braun trade I think the path is pretty clearly laid out. Without any major moves, we have a foundation laid, and quality prospects are making their way up, making us a better team going forward. In other words, if we don't make anything but minor moves, I think we will be better next year than we were this year, and we aren't terrible this year. By 2018 we could actually be decent.

[tmwiese55]

Yes, I don't see any way he wouldn't be as it's not a trade.

 

The cap ramifications mentioned do hinder some teams but if I would think the Dodgers letting him pass and hoping we just let him go. I think they'll clear Crawford this year and some other bad deals come off the books in coming seasons. And obviously they've shown previously to not care about the cap or tax. And any teams interested in trading could prefer to just claim him and see if we give him up, knowingly paying full money but without no prospects having to be traded. Issue is of course they have to make the decision's somewhat quickly.

[adambr2]

I'd take pretty much anything for Nieuwenhuis. If we could get 1 lottery ticket similar to the 3 we got for Lind, that's more than enough.

[logan82]

Hypothetically, what if Braun was waived, claimed by a team on his no trade list, and the Brewers let him walk? Would he be required to report to that team?

Braun would have to waive his no-trade or the Brewers would have to pull him back.

[monty57]

And I would think that the Brewers would never do that to such a valuable piece of the franchise. Stearns has said as much that Braun is elite and would require elite value to trade. The contract is not hindering our franchise one bit, regardless of what talking heads keep mentioning.

 

Correct. The Brewers are not simply looking to free up salary, nor should they be with their current financial situation. Braun is only getting traded if the Brewers get a lot of prospects back.

 

Braun has a lot of value to the Brewers. He doesn't seem to have a lot of value on the trade market. He will not be traded unless the value on the trade market surpasses his value to the Brewers. Therefore, I do not see Braun getting traded, and he certainly won't be given up for nothing on a waiver claim.

 

With Braun remaining a Brewer, the Brewers could be a .500 team as soon as next year. Therefore, I don't see them trading away much more MLB talent unless they're blown away.

[MrTPlush]

Hypothetically, what if Braun was waived, claimed by a team on his no trade list, and the Brewers let him walk? Would he be required to report to that team?

Braun would have to waive his no-trade or the Brewers would have to pull him back.

 

Yup this is true. Finally found a place that showed this info

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd take pretty much anything for Nieuwenhuis. If we could get 1 lottery ticket similar to the 3 we got for Lind, that's more than enough.

 

One lottery ticket is about his value if that. His 10 HR in 247 ABs should have teams looking for veteran bench bat interested though.

[MadThinker88]

IF he can put together 2 solid starts, Matt Garza & money to Detroit for bag of balls and two lottery ticket types from the Detroit Low A club...

 

Detroit is looking for warm bodies to try in the back end of their rotation...

[Austin Tatious]

Even that might be optimistic. But it would be nice. He'd be addition by subtraction. Like an infection.

 

Getting rid of Garza and getting a look at Wilkerson and Suter would be nice.

 

I hope we never resort to this type of signing again. Hopefully Attanasio is suitably traumatized by how this played out.

 

Stearns seems promising on developing continuity in our system, so that the next man up will be ready over time and you don't need to sign the Looper, Soup, Garza, Wolfie or Lohse. Some of those guys were solid for awhile but not the duration of what we needed to get.

[Devinep]

I'd take pretty much anything for Nieuwenhuis. If we could get 1 lottery ticket similar to the 3 we got for Lind, that's more than enough.

 

Consideringn he'll never have much value and isn't a young player, it would be nice to move him to open a Wren/Broxton platoon.

[MNBrew]

IF he can put together 2 solid starts, Matt Garza & money to Detroit for bag of balls and two lottery ticket types from the Detroit Low A club...

 

Detroit is looking for warm bodies to try in the back end of their rotation...

If Matt Kemp and his uber-ugly contract can get traded, so can Garza. Garza's contract pales in comparison to Kemp's on the "stink" meter.

 

Garza's arm is healthy and he did have a couple pretty good starts early in his return to the rotation. And there was at least one where he'd only given up 1 or 2 runs in 5+ innings, leaving with runners on, and the bullpen totally blew it to make his stat line look awful. . . . He's not great right now, but if the right team gets a little desperate, it's possible he could still represent something of an upgrade -- which of course isn't saying much, only that it's all relative.

 

I'd say the odds of something like that actually happening are well less than 50-50, but it only takes one team.