Villar's Value at 3B

[Austin Tatious]

I find it interesting when Braun comments on the young players. Recall he raved about Taylor Williams in the spring of 2015. Anyway, earlier this year Braun commented that Villar would show more pop in good time.

 

I agree with the sentiment that good offense is what you want at third, pop would be nice but not mandatory. Molly led off and played third back in the day. Pete Rose did too. Don't jump on me for pointing to two hall of fame caliber guys. I'm in no way, shape, or form comparing Villar to them.

 

As for Villar, the base running is basically tragic. But, I'd keep him. Love the .380 obp as mentioned plus he will be a fifty steal guy and lead the league.

 

Remember a few years ago when we trotted Yuni out at short on an otherwise good team, and we didn't really have any hope in our system, either? Then we traded for Segura. But the point is, solid two way, athletic guys like Villar can be tough to get. I get the point that he will have more value at short, but I still like him as our guy somewhere in the infield, at least for a couple of years. When Erceg and Isan get up here, who knows, then.

 

There's another thread for Scooter. If we can deal Scooter, and move Villar to second, and play Perez at third, I'd like to see that.

[1992casey]

Rose's bat played well at any position because his OBP was so high. If a player's OPS is OBP-heavy, that's a good thing. The idea is to get overall production. How you get it is negotiable. The main thing is that 3B shouldn't be weak offensively.

 

Molly actually did have a pretty good slugging percentage to complement his OBP.

[ZBTMP]

To be fair, Braun also said Wily Peralta was the best pitching prospect in baseball or something like that so Im not ready to move him to the front office yet.

 

I don't think the jury is out on Villar's defense at short. He is below average but passable. If a team would consider him at short he isn't going to change many scouting reports or defensive metrics over the next 2 months. I don't think the longterm values of Machado, Bergman, Peralta, or Kang are hurt because they primarily play third currently.

[igor67]

There have been a number of players in recent years who've kind of done the hybrid IF thing and gotten pretty valuable as a result. In terms of long term value Villar's defense at 3rd would be pretty important to figuring that out. If he goes from seriously below average D at SS to above average at 3rd he'd look similar to Jeff Cirillo (a little more speed and a little less power), which I'd take all day long. That's potentially a lot to hope for, but even with average D and some positional flexibility throughout the season is still pretty handy.

[clancyphile]

I think Russ brings up a valid point. When a player is moved from shortstop, it seems that people forget that he can play there. It's too early in the game for that concern to kick in, though.

 

As far as his offense, I think there's plenty of OBP and SLG for a 3B bat. Counsell sees him as an eventual 20-homer guy. If that's the case, he'll be fine. Of course, that translates to even more value at SS.

 

I consider all options open at this point. If Villar really develops 20 HR power to go with his other skills at the level he's performing at in 2016, then the Brewers deal him for a hefty return.

 

The alternative, the Brewers could keep Villar at short, and see what Arcia can net in a trade (say for a prospect or two where the Brewers are thin... like at first base or third base).

[WV Brew]

This year Villar is: .298/.380/.433

MLB career: .260/.333/.385

Minors: .261/.337/.386

 

It depends on whether you believe this year's improvement is real. Personally, I'm skeptical he can continue this rate long term. But he seems to be a darling of DS. Maybe Arcia will be the one dealt?

[3and2Fastball]

Welcome back rluzinski

 

I think Villar profiles more as a 2B. Stearns seems to like players who can play multiple positions. I think Gennett will be traded in the offseason, opening a spot for Villar there. But his ability to play SS/3B/2B/RF/LF gives the club flexibility. That and his overall athleticism and favorable contract status is what had Stearns go after him in the first place

[Fear The Chorizo]

as strictly a 2B, I think Villar is a more valuable player than Gennett.

 

Since Villar can also play multiple positions, he becomes a much more valuable player than Gennett. My hope would be that Scooter is dealt this offseason and DS gives 2B to Villar. Hopefully Arcia acclimates himself well enough to be considered the everyday Brewer SS next year, and Gomez shifts back to 3B for 2017.

[DuWayne Steurer]

This year Villar is: .298/.380/.433

MLB career: .260/.333/.385

Minors: .261/.337/.386

 

It depends on whether you believe this year's improvement is real. Personally, I'm skeptical he can continue this rate long term. But he seems to be a darling of DS. Maybe Arcia will be the one dealt?

 

 

Even if he settles in somewhere at .350/.400 and ends up at 2nd base, he would have decent value (if he stops making outs on the bases at the rate he does.

 

I think he's going to hit for more power than that though, and hope he can stick at 3B.

[pacopete4]

he seems to be a darling of DS. Maybe Arcia will be the one dealt?

 

Arcia is going nowhere.

[gregmag]

Villar and Perez are both 25, and they're both breaking out. Certainly either or both of them could regress severely. However, there's legitimate reason for optimism. A lot of players improve dramatically at about the age these guys are, and a fair number of them can sustain that improvement for several years. Players in their early and mid-20s are still developing. The thing I like about both of these guys is that they have broad skill sets. Perez is doing basically everything but walk. Villar is doing basically everything but play good defense, which a move to 3b or 2b should help with; hit homers, which may still come; and run the bases like a sane person.

 

To be fair, Gennett is only 26, and he's showing great improvement as well. However, he's less impressive right now than the other two, despite being a year older; and unlike them he has zero positional flexibility. I agree with others that, based on what we know now, he's the one to deal in the offseason. I don't think Perez has the bat to stick as an everyday RF over the other guys who will be coming up, but he looks like he could fit in at 2b or 3b (whichever one Villar plays less well).

[recte44]

With Brinson's expected power in CF, a non traditional power position, we can afford to have Villar at third. Also, Isan Diaz projects to be a 20-25 homer guy at second. There are plenty of projected outcomes with Villar sticking at third base in the long-term.

 

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[MadThinker88]

he seems to be a darling of DS. Maybe Arcia will be the one dealt?

 

Arcia is going nowhere.

 

Don't be too fast on that.

LET ME CLEAR: I am not demanding a trade of Arcia or suggesting it is the route DS should go.

 

If a deal comes along that is for Arcia and it massively helps the organization, DS should consider it.

 

Middle INF is an area where DS has brought in talent across many levels. Perhaps one of those is progressing to be even better then Arcia. He already has a solid contributor in place with Villar.

[jdw42434]

Villar is not the long term answer at 3B. He is the short term (2 months) answer. I don't think it hurts his trade value, unless he stops hitting. He could still be traded as a SS.

[danzig6767]

If (and it's certainly not a given) he's a .375/425 guy, I think he's fine at 3B, as long as he can cut down on the base running errors. If someone is in the top 10 - 15 in the league in OBP, I really don't care what position they play, or if it's a traditional "power" position.

This is my thought.

 

Villar is an ideal leadoff hitter and those can be hard to find. If he can just cut down on the bevy of mistakes on the base paths, keep getting on base at a high clip, and play good defense at thirdbase, i don't care that he's not a power guy for that position.

 

Ideally Scooter would be traded and Villar plays secondbase everyday, but i wouldn't be bothered by him at third.

[gregmag]

Has anyone else noticed that you could basically drop Villar's 2016 season line (as of now) into the middle of Paul Molitor's career and not know the difference?

 

It's very reasonable that Villar could regress. It's also reasonable that he's for real. I sure don't see any reason he shouldn't start at 2b or 3b next year.

[pacopete4]

Villar should be our 2B moving forward. Scooter should be moved in the offseason. Arcia/Villar up the middle would be very strong. Not only this but Perez can hold down 3B until we are ready to upgrade that position as well.

[jerichoholicninja]

So when Escobar was coming up we asked JJ to move to 3B and he said no. So we traded Alcides and then JJ tanks and he's traded not long after leaving a black hole at short for over 5 years. Now Villar isn't quite JJ but the situation is almost exactly the same and it seems like we just told Jonathan he's playing 3B. I suppose if we don't trade Alcides we don't get Greinke and don't make the playoffs and if we don't trade JJ there's no Gomez and therefore no haul from Houston last year but why was it so hard to just tell JJ you're playing 3B, deal with it. He pulled the same thing in Baltimore when Machado came up.

[bork]

Defensive stats have their limitations, but I don't think I've seen any that had Villar as adequate at SS this year. Fangraphs has him at -12.4 runs defensively at shortstop, for example. At some point he gives back too much of the value he generates with his bat and baserunning...and that's not likely to improve in coming years. Most 3b don't have the same profile with good OBP and mediocre SLG, but Martin Prado and Jose Ramirez are in the same realm, and they're ranked #12 and 15 in WAR, respectively, by Fangraphs, even without Villar's baserunning value. If Villar, a mediocre to bad SS, can be a good defensive 3B, he can still be above average at third. (Assuming the offense is for real, of course.)

 

Of course he's also possibly a top ten, 4-win player at 2b, where his defense should translate well and the offensive expectations are less, and that's kind of the elephant in the room. I don't know what the team thinks of Scooter but he doesn't seem like a Stearns kind of player...

 

Stearns seems to value defense more than Melvin. I was just looking at the defensive stats of Fangraphs. Really the only above average defenders were Perez at 3B and Nieuwenhuis in CF. So how do you start putting together the best defensive team moving forward? I do think you trade Gennett. Perez is more valuable at 3B than in the OF. Villar at 2B, along with Arcia and whoever is at 1B has the potential to be an above average defensive infield over the next couple years. And they'd have to be around for a few years because really, are there any infielders above low A who you would expect to be starters for the Brewers?

[danzig6767]

 

Stearns seems to value defense more than Melvin. I was just looking at the defensive stats of Fangraphs. Really the only above average defenders were Perez at 3B and Nieuwenhuis in CF. So how do you start putting together the best defensive team moving forward? I do think you trade Gennett. Perez is more valuable at 3B than in the OF. Villar at 2B, along with Arcia and whoever is at 1B has the potential to be an above average defensive infield over the next couple years. And they'd have to be around for a few years because really, are there any infielders above low A who you would expect to be starters for the Brewers?

That also strikes me as the most ideal infield for next year outside of firstbase, Villar at 2nd, Arcia at SS, and Perez at 3rd.

 

I just wish Perez walked more often. It's been great to see his improvement at the plate and he seems like he'd be a plus defender at third, but if his batting average and/or SLG declined, his OBP and OPS would tank because he draws walks at such a poor rate.

 

As for Villar, the guy is such an OBP beast, he should finish with around 13-15 homers, around 35-40 doubles, and 50 plus steals, the guy has to be an everyday player at either 2nd or 3rd. He's one of the top few best leadoff hitters in the game and that's a major asset for any offense to have someone at the top of the order who can get on base at such a high clip, besides his doubles, homers, and steals.

[DHonks]

First off, Jericho your history is off. JJ was traded before Alcides.

 

Secondly, Danzig, you can revise those numbers. Villarreal may hit the 13-16 homers, but I'd guess nearly 70 steals.

 

Personally I like having these 3 cheap options at 3b, 2b, and Ut. Scooter is still young and cheap, plus he's made great strides with walks, defense, and hitting lefties. His stats are skewed a bit by playing through the oblique injury. I'm enjoying Perez, but hardly sold. His history shows this is likely a fluke, although I hope it isn't.

[jerichoholicninja]

First off, Jericho your history is off. JJ was traded before Alcides.

 

Doesn't change the fact that Hardy refused to move to 3B which would have greatly helped the past and present of the organization (and the Orioles too) while Villar was just told he's playing 3B as soon as Arcia was called up.

[danzig6767]

First off, Jericho your history is off. JJ was traded before Alcides.

 

Secondly, Danzig, you can revise those numbers. Villarreal may hit the 13-16 homers, but I'd guess nearly 70 steals.

 

Personally I like having these 3 cheap options at 3b, 2b, and Ut. Scooter is still young and cheap, plus he's made great strides with walks, defense, and hitting lefties. His stats are skewed a bit by playing through the oblique injury. I'm enjoying Perez, but hardly sold. His history shows this is likely a fluke, although I hope it isn't.

I'm not as concerned as you are about what Perez is doing is likely a fluke. He has the type of frame to match with his increase in power as he's matured. My main concern with him going forward is his lack of plate discipline. For any hitter who walks at a poor rate, if their batting average isn't at least pretty high, they will carry a poor OBP. It's more common for low walk rate hitters to stay that way than to improve significantly.

[logan82]

First off, Jericho your history is off. JJ was traded before Alcides.

 

Doesn't change the fact that Hardy refused to move to 3B which would have greatly helped the past and present of the organization (and the Orioles too) while Villar was just told he's playing 3B as soon as Arcia was called up.

The big difference being JJ could actually play defense. Really well.

[jerichoholicninja]

First off, Jericho your history is off. JJ was traded before Alcides.

 

Doesn't change the fact that Hardy refused to move to 3B which would have greatly helped the past and present of the organization (and the Orioles too) while Villar was just told he's playing 3B as soon as Arcia was called up.

The big difference being JJ could actually play defense. Really well.

 

Better than Villar? Yes? Better than Machado or Escobar? No. And how good he really was/is is up for debate as some advanced stats had him as really good and some have him as average. His arm and glove were great but his range wasn't, which would have fit perfectly at 3B.