Villar's Value at 3B

[rluzinski]

With Arcia's call up, everyone's focus is on the potential loss of a cheap year of him (and rightly so). I am just as concerned over Villar losing value playing at 3B, however. I know he's never been considered a plus defender at SS but he seemed adequate there, defensively this year. His OBP has been great but does his stick really project to be above average at 3B?

 

I would have preferred to give him a full year at SS and trade him as a SS in the off season. Now, I fear we'll watch him struggle to be anything more than average at 3B with the Brewers for years to come.

[reillymcshane]

With Arcia's call up, everyone's focus is on the potential loss of a cheap year of him (and rightly so). I am just as concerned over Villar losing value playing at 3B, however. I know he's never been considered a plus defender at SS but he seemed adequate there, defensively this year. His OBP has been great but does his stick really project to be above average at 3B?

 

I would have preferred to give him a full year at SS and trade him as a SS in the off season. Now, I fear we'll watch him struggle to be anything more than average at 3B with the Brewers for years to come.

rluzinski is back! Welcome back, Russ.

[Surhoff5]

Beat me to it. Welcome back -- I don't post much, but have been on this board since the mid 2000's and you were the first poster really to get me to look into advanced stats.

 

My question is: Can Villar play 2B? I think that would be his ideal spot next year as he would be more valuable there and Scooter is a pretty bad every day player.

[reillymcshane]

With regard to the question: I'm pretty confident that Stearns isn't going to keep Villar as our long time 3B if he can get a quality return for him. And I don't think a couple of months at 3B this year is going to hurt his value this off season. Everyone will know what he can do at SS - so if someone wants him for that gig, they'll know what he can do.

[pacopete4]

I think long term he is our 2B moving forward. It just happens that we still have Scooter, who is not athletically gifted to play anywhere else. This coupled with a black hole in the OF that Perez is trying to fill and you get Villar at 3B. Either way, I don't think it will kill his value as a SS if someone see's and wants him to be one.

[StearnsFTW]

Saw rluzinski in the title.

 

Thought I hit a time warp.

 

I would be looking hard at trading Villar this winter were I Stearns. I don't see his value ever being higher

[umphrey]

Villar at 3B, Scooter at 2B for 2017. Maybe mid 2017 or 2018 we want to look at a real 3B and Villar goes to 2B, Scooter is probably either platoon, util or traded.

 

Villar gets kinda penciled in as our long term 2B but he has to outplay the competition to stay there.

[TooLiveBrew]

Plus Scooter is in the middle of a hot streak, so it's not really fair to bench him right now.

 

I agree with Monty that Villar's longterm value shouldn't be affected much if at all purely by moving him to 3B. And also agree with Brew4U that Villar is probably the 2B heading forward, if he remains & isn't dealt.

 

And glad to see you post again, rluz!

[umphrey]

Villar is worth holding on to, he seems valuable being young and pretty good at SS but it's a tough trade market. Rebuilding teams want someone younger, all in teams want an elite player with track record, pedigree, and only if they happen to have a hole at SS.

 

Trades we could make are:

 

-Maybe there is a team like Tampa or the White Sox with a guy just like Villar but he plays 3B and they have a top 3B prospect, 1B or whatever

-Sell to anyone for lottery tickets

 

I'd rather have Villar unless that perfect trade is out there

[MrTPlush]

Sure he lacks in the slugging department for a 3B, but then again who cares? The rest of his game blows away the majority of starting 3B in the league.

 

Additionally we can still trade him in the offseason as a SS. Teams know what he can do at SS and 50 games at 3B won't change that. If anything it helps his value with position flexibility. If Perez continues to mash we can always move him back to 3B to make room for Santana. At that point we can trade Villar like you want or move him to 2B.

[GoToHelfaer]

I don't think the Brewers will actively shop Villar. A monster haul would get him moved, yes, but his versatility, age and improvement make him a core piece for the Brewers to build around.

 

I never buy into that garbage that your first and third baseman have to be certain types of hitters. Sure Villar won't hit the home runs but I don't know... The 39 steals and 37% OBP of Villar or the 30 HRs and 29% OBP of Franzier?

 

 

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[rluzinski]

I just a took a short 5 year break. Seemed like a good time to try and really get back into this. Was nice to see some familiar names still posting here.

 

Playing Villar longterm at 2B will certainly help. It is just especially difficult to get any offense out of the SS position, so I just hope Stearns is keeping the trade option open.

 

"I never buy into that garbage that your first and third baseman have to be certain types of hitters. Sure Villar won't hit the home runs but I don't know..."

 

I agree that you don't need to have power from your 3B. You need good offensive production, however. If Villar can keep up that OBP, great. I don't think that is a given, however. Additionally, Villar's net base running value will be questionable as long as he continues to make a ton of outs getting picked of, caught stealing or trying to grab an extra base on a hit.

 

Really, my main point is Villar's overall value playing SS for someone else vs. playing 2B or 3B with the Brewers, though.

[1992casey]

I think Russ brings up a valid point. When a player is moved from shortstop, it seems that people forget that he can play there. It's too early in the game for that concern to kick in, though.

 

As far as his offense, I think there's plenty of OBP and SLG for a 3B bat. Counsell sees him as an eventual 20-homer guy. If that's the case, he'll be fine. Of course, that translates to even more value at SS.

[logan82]

It was a good 5 years to take a break. It has been tough to watch the Brewers front office since 2011.

[rluzinski]

Villar just made a mistake on the basepaths as I type this.

[DuWayne Steurer]

If (and it's certainly not a given) he's a .375/425 guy, I think he's fine at 3B, as long as he can cut down on the base running errors. If someone is in the top 10 - 15 in the league in OBP, I really don't care what position they play, or if it's a traditional "power" position.

 

I get the value question.

 

Does Villar as a SS have more value as a trade chip than he does as the Brewers 3B? The other part of that equation is "does the return plus Hernan Perez at 3B have more value than Villar at 3B and Hernan Perez as the super utility guy?"

 

I like Perez, but there's no way the little bit more power he has makes up for the big gap in the OBP. If Perez hits .270, he may not OBP .300, and that just doesn't seem to be the type of player who fits Stearns mold anymore.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Defensive stats have their limitations, but I don't think I've seen any that had Villar as adequate at SS this year. Fangraphs has him at -12.4 runs defensively at shortstop, for example. At some point he gives back too much of the value he generates with his bat and baserunning...and that's not likely to improve in coming years. Most 3b don't have the same profile with good OBP and mediocre SLG, but Martin Prado and Jose Ramirez are in the same realm, and they're ranked #12 and 15 in WAR, respectively, by Fangraphs, even without Villar's baserunning value. If Villar, a mediocre to bad SS, can be a good defensive 3B, he can still be above average at third. (Assuming the offense is for real, of course.)

 

Of course he's also possibly a top ten, 4-win player at 2b, where his defense should translate well and the offensive expectations are less, and that's kind of the elephant in the room. I don't know what the team thinks of Scooter but he doesn't seem like a Stearns kind of player...

[LouisEly]

I just a took a short 5 year break. Seemed like a good time to try and really get back into this. Was nice to see some familiar names still posting here.

Technically a 3-year break, but who's counting?

 

A bad year and it's bringing guys out of the woodwork - rluzinski, Brian, battlekow, BillScottCanRake... this isn't just coincidence. [sarcasm]Bunch of foul-weather fans.[/sarcasm]

 

Next thing you know we'll hear from Geno, Batman, and Joel from San Francisco (can't remember for the life of me what his username was).

[gregmag]

He's playing 3b because his team has a prodigy at ss. He still has two thirds of a season as the regular ss on his trade resume, if that's how they decide to go. Two months at 3b doesn't take that away. The bigger problem, as SoCal said, is that there's decent evidence he was a bad ss.

 

Glad you're back Rluz!

[1992casey]

Technically a 3-year break, but who's counting?

1,156 days — or if you prefer — 3 years, 1 month, 30 days

[1992casey]

Joel from San Francisco = Series Finale, or on occasion, Rev. Series Finale.

 

Also, you omitted madbad2000.

[And That]

Just wait until we grant clemency to Hoffy and Scoop.

[Funketown]

Had to do a double-take when I saw 'rluzinski'; takes me back to my early days on the board 6-8 years ago.

 

Given that Villar's played a grand total of about 90 MLB innings at 3B, of which I've seen about 3, it'll take some time to get a better gauge for how he handles the position. My completely subjective guess is that he'll eventually be pretty average defensively at 3B, given that he's a below-average but competent SS. I suppose he retains some defensive value in that he can offer a short-term injury replacement or stop-gap at SS.

 

I still don't have a great gauge for how well his bat projects. He's been impressive this year, and he seems like a guy who could carry a high BABIP, but he's hanging around .400 this year which is not reasonable to expect going forward. That said, he's still at a point in his career where he could see some improvement at the plate. I think it would be generous to project him as a ~110 wRC+ type of guy, but if so he would seem to have some value at 3B.

[RobertR]

Like others have said if he continues to get on base there's no reason Villar can't be a productive third baseman. Frankly given his defensive inconsistencies I don't think he's going to stick at short anyways. But I doubt moving him now changes his market.

 

My guess is that second is Villar ' s ultimate destination. There's nothing particularly notable about Gennett.

[endaround]

Villar is not below average at shortstop, he's horrendously bad. We are talking below Jeter at his worst bad. There is a reason why a shortstop who had shown he hit for about league average was available for a song. Given how bad defensively Villar is at shortstop, its questionable if he can play 2B or 3B competently. His offense this year of a RC+ of 117 is about median for 2B or 3B and that is with a BABIP of .405. If that falls below like .360, which is still a high figure he is no longer an above average bat.