Start of 2006 draft forum

[UWRyan428]

I think it's unfair to say the Brewers wouldn't pull the trigger this year because, in the past, they've let Boras' advisees slide past them. Up until last year, we've operated within Bud Seligs' pocketbook parameters. If his team were to grossly overpay above slotted value, wouldn't that speak negatively of the MLB commissioner? I remember seeing us tab Mark Rogers (who I am still high on) over Homer Bailey, very much because he wouldn't break Selig's budget before he sold the team. And going into last year, it was a given that we were going to take a 3B given the depth of the draft and the dearth within our system. This year, given our minor league depth, I would imagine, if given the chance, Jack Z. would be salivating at the chance to add an advanced pitcher to a system without an ace's arm (Rogers could become a dominator, but I'm thinking dominating closer RIGHT NOW. The kid, and I emphasize kid given that he can't drink yet, hasn't developed much past the closer's fireball). And just imagine in a few years when the aces of the NL Central are former Trojans Prior, Reyes, and Kennedy. Salivating I tell you! Pipe dream? Probably...but as long as I have odds, I'm all-in.

[colbyjack]

Up until last year, we've operated within Bud Seligs' pocketbook parameters. If his team were to grossly overpay above slotted value, wouldn't that speak negatively of the MLB commissioner?

 

I'm not a big fan of saying the Selig's prevented the Brewers from taking a Boras advisee. I do agree that it wouldn't look good if the commish's team broke the league's suggestions for slot value, but saying the Selig's pocketbooks prevented the team from spending money is somewhat of a misconception. I know I and others, most notably SoCal, have pointed out before that the Brewers have been anything but cheap when it comes to the draft. I'm not complaining that they stick to the slot values for the most part in the first several rounds, but they have done a good job signing their picks under Jack Zduriencik, and have even signed a few later picks for above slot value (Steve Moss and Tom Wilhelmsen quickly come to mind). Plus, they've signed several DFE candidates for big money, Manny Parra being the most obvious, all when the Seligs still owned the team.

 

And I'm not saying the Brewers won't pull the trigger, but we've gone through this almost every year, speculating on why or how the Brewers could select and sign someone like Drew, Pelfrey, Hochevar, etc. So far under Jack Z's watch they have passed each time, and until they don't I'm taking a "I will believe it when I see it" type of approach.

 

As a warning, if we do select someone like Kennedy, don't be surprised or upset when he is still unsigned through Christmas. Ask a Dodgers fan what they think about the selection of Hochevar, and they'll probably tell you it was Logan White's biggest mistake.

[UWRyan428]

First of all, you cannot blame Logan White at all!!! Correct me if I'm wrong, but Hochevar fired Boras and got a new agent who swiftly negotiated what would have been the largest deal for a player at that time. After agreeing to it, he fired his agent and claimed that Logan White forced him into the deal. And the problem with that comparison is that the Brewers would recoup a sandwich pick (albeit a lower one than our one) if they were to let their pick go unsigned. Which leads me to my second point. Up until this year, we've always had our pick of the top talents with very little pressure to find a "produce now" guy. Considering the popularity of Ryan Wagner (who has since faltered, but had a sweet cup of coffee almost straight out of Houston), Chad Cordero, Huston Street, Joey Devine, and Craig Hansen, you can't discount that type of pick. And while those are closers, I hasten to mention that there is a recent Trojan starter who made the most of his cup of coffee, only to be beset by injuries this past year...and the year prior. However, the year Prior...was the year of Prior. But I digress, this is Ian Kennedy's spot. But I do have a q. What would be the chances of the Brews taking Jason Berken? I've seen him pitch and he just is a pitcher. He's cool and collected on the mound, and efficient. The surgery drops him a bit but the added velocity vaults him back up. What's the word? Clemson wins the College World Series behind their captain and Friday night starter, Berken??? How high could he be vaulted?

[colbyjack]

I'm not blaming Logan White for the Hochevar saga. Like I said, ask any Dodgers fan (and there are a few that participate here) and they'll tell you that selecting Hochevar was a mistake. That isn't meant to place blame on White, just noting that the gamble taking a player like Hochevar seemed to have backfired.

 

As for Jason Berken, I could see him rising up into the first round with a big spring. As I noted in my Scouting WI story, his fastball touches 94 now after TJ surgery instead of topping out around 92. If he consistently pitches 92-94, with his repertoire (which includes three other very good pitches), he could definitely be considered a first-round pick. Lance Broadway had a similar rise last year.

 

You brought up an interesting point on college closers. If the Brewers are in the thick of a playoff race in June, would you take a college closer like Blair Erickson if you felt he could be contributing to the team by the end of the year, and possibly bolster the bullpen for a playoff run? With the Brewers selecting 16th as opposed to being in the top 5-10 I'm more open to such a pick, although I doubt they will pursue such an option.

[heresrobin]

The theme to this year's draft is definitely the abundance of pitching prospects in the first round. And it seems to me that the consensus is that the Brewers should select a pitcher with their first pick.

 

For argument's sake, what do you think of the Brewers selecting one of the projected outfielders with their first pick, someone who could become a corner outfielder with some decent slugging power? I just feel that after Nelson Cruz at AAA, there is a bit of a void in the Brewers system for a legit power bat in the outfield save maybe Charlie Fermaint and Brendan Katin. There seems to be plenty of speedy, OBP, lead-off type outfielders like Brantley, Cain, Ford, Moss, Gwynn, etc. With the possibility that we may not have both Jenkins or Lee on the team in 2 years, I'm a little concerned about our corner outfield depth considering that Hart and Cruz are unproven at the major league level.

 

In looking at your list of top 30 prospects right now, a few that stood out in order of who I would like:

 

Cody Johnson

Max Sapp-listed as a Catcher but could perhaps see a move to the outfield? Or forget about him as an outfielder, how about the Brewers draft him as a Catcher?

Riley Cooper

Drew Stubbs

Matt LaPorta-listed as a 1B but could perhaps see a move to the outfield as well?

 

Any merit to my proposal or thoughts? Or are the pitchers just too strong to pass on in the first round? I know you can never have enough pitchers, but isn't our depth right now stable enough? I'd appreciate any comments. I'm here to learn.

[colbyjack]

If you do indeed draft for an organizational weakness, I think you have to take a catcher. No position is in more need IMO. Of course you can never have enough pitching, and at least the organization has some good corner OFs at the big-league level and a few knocking at the door.

 

I'll play along though. As you noted, if Sapp is in the conversation, it's as a catcher. I'm not sure I see him in the OF even if he doesn't stick behind the plate.

 

Drew Stubbs is a CF, and Cooper would likely begin his career there. Matt LaPorta could more than hold his own as a LF if not in RF, and would be a no-brainer pick if he fell to the 16th pick (which I don't think he will) even if 1B was his best position.

 

That leaves Cody Johnson. As I noted in Johnson's profile, no 2006 draft-eligible prospect has as much power potential as him, however, he is a true boom or bust type of prospect. He reportedly has slipped a little bit in the eyes of scouts, but when he connects the ball goes a long, long way. His swing can get mighty long, although I could see him developing as an Adam Dunn type of player. As I always point out such comparisons are extremely unfair, so please don't take them too seriously.

 

If you want a corner OF that can hit, take Chris Parmelee, who has the smoothest bat from the prep crop.

 

As for your last comments, while the pitching is strong there could always be the right hitter available at the 16th slot. I'm certainly more open to drafting hitters in the first round than pitchers. And you can never ever be comfortable with the organization's depth in pitchers.

 

To be honest, I think the system is in greater need of a leadoff-type CF. The organization does have several that fit that description based on tools, but I guess I'm not sold on any of them as everyday starters (Krynzel obviously has issues, Gwynn has no power, Moss is an enigma, while Cain, Brantley & Ford are years away).

 

That said, I do believe the pick will be a college arm.

[madbad2000]

I think I've been leaning towards taking a hitter as well. While it is definately a pitching year (college especially) that may leave us with an intriguing choice at 16. I prefer hitting to pitching in round 1 and if it has to be an arm please go college....although with our track record. Should be fun following the draft this spring as we'll have to study a lot more people who could potentially drop to us instead of the top 5-10 players.