Start of 2006 draft forum

[H0FFY]

I have seen enough of our patch job bullpens meltdown in the last half of every season. You cannot luck out with 5 cheapie cheap guys every year. We seem to find 2 or 3 (Wise and Turnbow this year), but we need 4 good good guys.

 

Since we are knee deep in prospects (seems a balance between starters and positions players), why do we not find some college relief stud in the first round and TWO next year and fast track them. It seems to be OK to do that these days. I just do not want to be scratching around for a reliever in two years when we really need one.

[Brian the Automator]

[ Since we are knee deep in prospects (seems a balance between starters and positions players), why do we not find some college relief stud in the first round and TWO next year and fast track them. It seems to be OK to do that these days. I just do not want to be scratching around for a reliever in two years when we really need one. ]

 

Well, from this year's draft, Steve Hammond is definately being fast-tracked...

 

Overall though, I disagree on drafting relievers in the high rounds. Melvin has shown that it's not hard to pull a Turnbow, Vizcaino, Kolb, or a Wise off the scrap heap.

 

I think you're much better trying to draft the players with the higher values (position players, starters) and then trading them for relief help when that time comes.

[colbyjack]

I touched upon this in one of my Crack of the Bat columns this spring:

 

College closers

 

First of all, I don't think the team should ever get comfortable with the number of prospects they have. Since producing talent is going to have to be a constant, non-stop effort for the Brewers to be successful for longer than 2-3 years, I would hate to see the Brewers change the way they draft.

 

As Brian pointed out, finding cheap, effective arms for the 'pen is easy enough, as long as you're good at it by proving you are able to do so, which I think is clear Doug Melvin is.

 

As my column points out, closers are made, not born.

 

I could see drafting a closer in the 2nd half of the first round, but if the Brewers are drafting in the first half next year I say no way. I'm a firm believer that you shouldn't overpay relief pitchers, and more specifically, a closer (and it seems Doug Melvin feels the same way by moving Dan Kolb when he did), and if you draft a closer that early in the draft you immediately are investing a lot of money into that player.

 

Obviously, there are exceptions. Huston Street is one player I would have taken earlier than where the A's did, as he was the complete package, although I would have tried him as a starter first. But he's the only one among several highly-touted closing prospects that have come out the past few years, including Ryan Wagner, Chad Cordero and Craig Hansen. And I would have tried all three of those guys as starters before moving them to the 'pen for good.

 

Next year seems to be a decent year for college starters, with Andrew Miller, Daniel Bard, Dallas Buck and Ian Kennedy all good candidates to go in the top 5-10 picks (Jared Hughes is another pitcher-that Jack Zduriencik liked a lot in high school-on the rise to keep an eye on). That would be my far-too-early preference at this point in time.

[DHonks]

Huston Street is one player I would have taken earlier than where the A's did, as he was the complete package, although I would have tried him as a starter first.

 

Huston is listed at 6' and 185. Would knowing that he's more like 5'10" and 170 change your idea of starting him?

 

I'm not biased against shorter pitchers, just asking your impression.

[colbyjack]

Absolutely. Size doesn't bother me much, since most players' listed sizes are inaccurate anyway. I know Sheets is listed at 6'1", and Roy Oswalt is listed around 6', but neither one is over 6' from what I've heard.

 

Street has a good enough fastball with life, a solid breaking pitch, an advanced changeup to go along with good arm action, solid mechanics and top-notch character to succeed in any role. In fact, at Texas and for Team USA he was more than just a 1-inning closer. I believe he threw 40+ innings for Team USA during the summer of 2003.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

Obviously, there are exceptions. Huston Street is one player I would have taken earlier than where the A's did, as he was the complete package, although I would have tried him as a starter first. But he's the only one among several highly-touted closing prospects that have come out the past few years, including Ryan Wagner, Chad Cordero and Craig Hansen. And I would have tried all three of those guys as starters before moving them to the 'pen for good.

 

One thing about all those guys, Street included is that they all were both easy signs and budget picks by teams who care about such things or had multiple 1st and Supplemental picks.

 

Hansen was one of How many Red Sox 1st & 2nd round picks this year?

 

I'm not saying it's a bad idea, even a money saving idea, just saying that in the past it's been cheaper to get these guys than guy's who's agents sold them as starters in the first place.

 

I'm sure with Cordero's and Streets' success, it will be less so from now on.

[colbyjack]

Another good call EDR, and another point I brought up in my column.

[Mass Haas]

Kansas City Star:

 

Royals have eyes on an arm with their No. 1 draft pick

by JEFFREY FLANAGAN

 

One of the few things to get lukewarm about the Royals is that, as you know, they will get the No. 1 pick in the draft next June.

 

And here?s something interesting: The Royals apparently will be looking at a pitcher, not a hitter.

 

That?s interesting because the Royals? offense right now is pitiful. True, the Royals? pitching staff wasn?t exactly stellar, either. But even the biggest skeptic can see the potential in some of the Royals? young arms.

 

But offensively, the only potential ? Billy Butler, Chris Lubanski, Mitch Maier ? is still in the minors.

 

Yet Royals scouting director Deric Ladnier is looking for a starting pitcher with that No. 1 pick.

 

?To be honest, we pretty much believe we?ve addressed the offensive side in recent drafts,? Ladnier said. ?There?s some offense and legitimate hitters on the way that should help the big-league club soon.

 

?Now we?re going to turn back to the pitching aspect. Ideally, you?d always like to get more of this and more of that, but we feel pretty comfortable with what we have on the way in terms of bats.?

 

This is where the faith of Royals fans will be tested again. But say this much about Ladnier: After more than a decade of draft whiffs by the Royals, he appears to have restocked the farm system in a relatively short time.

 

Since Ladnier took over the draft in 2001, he?s plucked Zack Greinke, Butler, Lubanski, Maier and Alex Gordon in the first round ? five guys who should be cornerstones of the team?s future. And don?t forget J.P. Howell, too. Ladnier?s first pick ? Colt Griffin ? may turn out to be his worst, but remember that all scouting directors occasionally fan on first-round picks.

 

As for next year?s top pick? Here?s a few names that are being tossed around: North Carolina right-hander Daniel Bard, Oregon State right-hander Dallas Buck, USC right-hander Ian Kennedy and North Carolina lefty Andrew Miller.

[brettac1]

If I were a Royals fan, I'd be pretty ticked that the scouting director had already essentially ruled out one portion of the draft class because they have already addressed the offense.

 

He could just be saying nothing, of course, he does work in a front office.

[colbyjack]

It's actually a pretty easy and generic thing to say right now, because the talent at the top favors the pitchers pretty heavily right now. There is no Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Rickie Weeks or Delmon Young. While a player can always emerge, there usually aren't too many surprising regarding the talent at the very top.

 

As it should be, it's not so much as to what the Royals need, but what's available.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Colby get your $1 out. Glass has said they owe it to the Royals fan this year to raise payroll, that will not mean they are going to go bargain basement w/ the #1 pick. Andew Miller here we come. Don't worry I won't spend your $1 it will stay permanently on my wall.

 

Did I mention I'm counting my chickens beofr they hatch???? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[colbyjack]

I'll believe it when I see it KC. Don't get your hopes up http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

[colbyjack]

I've been waiting for the most recent issue of BA for a while, looking forward to their usual early draft sneak preview. This year they added their top 50 prospects, up from the usual 30 they have done in past years.

 

I wanted to go back and gauge just how accurate these early projections are to the picks made on draft day to see just how much the talent stays the same from year to year. I also wanted to see how it changed to their early draft preview rankings which are usually released in Jan/Feb.

 

So, I've tallied up the names from this time in the past three years, the names from the early draft preview in Jan/Feb, and the names as they actually were selected from the first round.

 

 

2003

 No. Sneak Preview Early Projection Actual 1 Rickie Weeks Rickie Weeks Delmon Young 2 Lastings Milledge Delmon Young Rickie Weeks 3 Delmon Young Adam Loewen Kyle Sleeth 4 Kyle Sleeth Kyle Sleeth Tim Stauffer 5 Michael Aubrey Lastings Milledge Chris Lubanski 6 Ryan Harvey Andrew Miller Ryan Harvey 7 Chris Lubanski Jared Hughes Nick Markakis 8 Jeff Allison Brad Sullivan Paul Maholm 9 Kyle Bakker Bobby Brownlie John Danks 10 Tim Stauffer Tim Stauffer Ian Stewart 11 Brad Sullivan Chris Lubanski Michael Aubrey 12 Matt Murton Ryan Harvey Lastings Milledge 13 Jeff Manship Michael Aubrey Aaron Hill 14 Chad Billingsley David Aardsma Ryan Wagner 15 Jared Hughes Jeff Allison Brian Anderson 16 David Aardsma Chad Billingsley Jeff Allison 17 Andrew Miller Landon Powell David Murphy 18 James Houser Jay Sborz Brad Snyder 19 Robert Lane Matt Murton Conor Jackson 20 Matt Brown Ryan Sweeney Chad Cordero 21 Landon Powell James Houser Matt Moses 22 Ryan Sweeney Paul Maholm David Aardsma 23 Carlos Quentin Kyle Bakker Brandon Wood 24 Tony Richie Craig Whitaker Chad Billingsley 25 Paul Maholm Jonathan Fulton Brad Sullivan 26 Aaron Hill Not available Brian Snyder 27 Craig Whitaker Not available Eric Duncan 28 Jonathan Fulton Not available Daric Barton 29 Conor Jackson Not available Carlos Quentin 30 Wes Littleton Not available Mitch Maier

 

2004

 No. Sneak Preview Early Projection Actual 1 Jeff Niemann Jeff Niemann Matt Bush 2 Jered Weaver Justin Verlander Justin Verlander 3 Wade Townsend Jered Weaver Phillip Humber 4 Stephen Drew Jeff Larish Jeff Niemann 5 Chris Nelson Nick Adenhart Mark Rogers 6 Nick Adenhart Stephen Drew Jeremy Sowers 7 Matt Bush Matt Bush Homer Bailey 8 Jeremy Sowers Wade Townsend Wade Townsend 9 Justin Verlander Jeremy Sowers Chris Nelson 10 Phillip Humber Greg Golson Thomas Diamond 11 Matt Durkin Phillip Humber Neil Walker 12 Justin Orenduff Homer Bailey Jered Weaver 13 Greg Golson Justin Orenduff Bill Bray 14 Thomas Diamond Chris Lambert Billy Butler 15 Andy Gale Michael Taylor Stephen Drew 16 Homer Bailey Huston Street David Purcey 17 Jeff Larish Micah Owings Scott Elbert 18 Jay Rainville Jay Rainville Josh Fields 19 Micah Owings Chuck Lofgren Chris Lambert 20 Michael Taylor Thomas Diamond Trevor Plouffe 21 Erik Davis Mark Rogers Greg Golson 22 Chris Lambert Andy Gale Glen Perkins 23 Eric Beattie Seth Smith Phillip Hughes 24 Chuck Lofgren Chris Nelson Landon Powell 25 Mark Rogers Phil Hughes Kyle Waldrop 26 Tyler Lumsden Eric Beattie Richie Robnett 27 Eric Patterson Eric Patterson Taylor Tankersly 28 Jeff Frazier Danny Putnam Blake DeWitt 29 Huston Street Scott Elbert Matt Campbell 30 Phil Hughes Kenn Kasparek Eric Hurley

 

2005

 No. Sneak Preview Early Projection Actual 1 Justin Upton Justin Upton Justin Upton 2 Cameron Maybin Cameron Maybin Alex Gordon 3 Alex Gordon Alex Gordon Jeff Clement 4 Jeff Clement Mike Pelfrey Ryan Zimmerman 5 Tyler Green Luke Hochevar Ryan Braun 6 Wade Townsend Tyler Greene Ricky Romero 7 Luke Hochevar Jeff Clement Troy Tulowitzki 8 Mike Pelfrey Wade Townsend Wade Townsend 9 Stephen Head Troy Tulowitzki Mike Pelfrey 10 Troy Tulowitzki Ryan Zimmerman Cameron Maybin 11 John Mayberry, Jr. Stephen Head Andrew McCutchen 12 Mark McCormick John Mayberry, Jr. Jay Bruce 13 Craig Hansen Sean O'Sullivan Brandon Snyder 14 Ryan Zimmerman Mark McCormick Trevor Crowe 15 Ryan Mullins Justin Bristow Lance Broadway 16 Sean O'Sullivan Craig Hansen Chris Volstad 17 Ricky Romero Jordan Danks C.J. Henry 18 Travis Buck Zach Putnam Cesar Carrillo 19 Miers Quigley Taylor Teagarden John Mayberry, Jr. 20 Justin Bristow Travis Buck Mark Pawelek 21 Cliff Pennington Brian Bogusevic Cliff Pennington 22 Chris Volstad Chris Volstad Aaron Thompson 23 Stephen Kahn Andrew McCutchen Jacoby Ellsbury 24 Andrew McCutchen Daniel Carte Brian Bogusevic 25 Brad Clark Brett Jacobson Matt Garza 26 Jordan Danks Austin Jackson Craig Hansen 27 Zach Putnam Brandon Snyder Joey Devine 28 Brad Corley Henry Sanchez Colby Rasmus 29 Brian Bogusevic Cliff Pennington Jacob Marceaux 30 Jed Lowrie David Adams Tyler Greene

I apologize for the funky coding. I tried to fix it several times but it didn't work. This is the best I could get it copying & pasting from an Excel file. The columns are somewhat lined up http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

 

Anyway, I bring this up as BA has their own top prospect list out. I don't like including full lists of players from paid publications that offer subscriber services (I don't think this list usually makes it to their web-site), so you're going to have to go out and buy your own copy of BA. I can tell you that Drew Stubbs, not Andrew Miller, is ranked #1, which came as a surprise. I will provide their top 10:

 

Drew Stubbs

Andrew Miller

Max Scherzer

Jordan Walden

Daniel Bard

Matt Latos

Wes Hodges

Ian Kennedy

Cody Johnson

Evan Longoria

 

Texas RHP Kyle McCulloch was ranked #16, although he won't appear that high on my top 30 list, which will be released in the next week or two.

 

 

bow to the master of code tags. Actually, you just need to paste it into notepad and straighten it out first, then put it in the post. -ja002h

[EdgarDiazRocks]

Surprised to see Dallas Buck's name not there.

 

East Coast bias?

 

Also interesting to note how they missed the boat, so to speak, on Ian Stewart and Daric Barton in 2003.

[colbyjack]

No East Coast bias, as the list is well represented from across the nation (if you're being sarcastic, I'll turn my sarcastic-meter back on). Buck checks in at #11, but I won't have him quite that high (he'll be close). I wasn't too fond of his blowup on the mound during the CWS (I think that's when it was). He clearly and completely lost his composure in a pressure situation, although I still found a way to like Wade Townsend after an even worse incident involving him on the Cape during the summer of 2003.

 

Certainly these lists are far from perfect, which is why I wanted to see just how accurate they were. The names at the very top usually don't move too much, and there are usually four players from each early draft list that fall significantly (although other than Kyle Bakker, not because of talent). And most teams missed the boat on Daric Barton in '03. Later draft lists by BA that year had Ian Stewart very high (top 10 IIRC) and Barton as a potential first-rounder.

 

Max Sapp is this year's version of Daric Barton IMO, and BA currently has him ranked 31st. I'll have him around 15. The dude can hit.

[lovehate]

Colby, thanks so much for putting that together, i've done the same thing very loosely the last couple of years, but this is a great reference. Two things, it's funny the year you did this BA makes the disclaimer that this 06 list is less consensus than many in recent years, and, they drop Miller to # 2 just weeks after the Royals say they want the best arm available, and were already getting heat for going w/a budget pick in 06!

[Mass Haas]

At what point would Ryan Braun have made the projected list? Not on the Top 30 radar early on?

[colbyjack]

Braun was rated the 27th best college player from the early projection issue (Jan/Feb). Cliff Pennington was the last college player to be listed in the top 30, and he was the 17th best college player, so Braun would have been in the top 50 if they had done an overall list that deep. Several first-rounders were rated between Pennington and Braun on the college list, including Cesar Ramos, Trevor Crowe, Ricky Romero and Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

Kevin Roberts was rated #68 on the list.

[deeswan]

It really amazes me to see Scherzer so high on the list. I saw him pitch in La Crosse (with the Loggers in the Northwoods League) during the 2nd half of 2004. He threw gas, consistently in the 93-94 range. He committed to La Crosse for last season, then backed out and went to the Cape Cod League. I'm 99% sure that, if he is indeed picked in the 1st round, he will be the first player I've seen in person who later became a 1st round pick in the MLB draft.

[colbyjack]

BA's draft coverage is out, and here's an interesting story from Allan Simpson that talks about the talent available as a whole:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...rview.html

 

In their mock draft, they have Chris Tillman going in the 16th slot (for the Dodgers fans out there, Ian Kennedy is pegged 7th, although I doubt they mess with a Boras client again, no matter where he's from).

 

If I'm the Brewers, I look at the college arm BA has going right ahead of us, Dallas Buck, or right behind us, Kyle McCulloch. Joba Chamberlain, Jared Hughes and Brad Lincoln also make a lot of sense for the Brewers if they're looking at pitchers.

 

For the prep pitchers, I take Dellin Betances before Tillman, but Tillman is no slouch.

[Blazer25]

I would say my prep arms are (all guys I have seen):

 

1) Brett Anderson

1a) Betances

2) Walden

3) Drabek

4) Colton Willems

5) Rasmus

6) Latos

[UWRyan428]

What would it take for Ian Kennedy to fall to the Brewers? I continue to hear that the only factor that could put him on the slide would be his association with Scott Boras. And while we have all seen what happens when Boras makes his outlandish demands (Luke Hochevar, in the words of Brett Favre, "you're getting bad advice.") However, if his demands scare off most teams, I find it hard to believe the Brews would open up their pocketbook considering how strictly they adhere to the slotting system. I would have to believe, given the success of Ben Sheets, that they would make an exception for such a specimen, which Kennedy definitely is. The kid is an under-sized ace, with an over-sized repertoire and a heart to match. Seriously, I know Andrew Miller is widely considered to be the top pitcher available, and while I would take Miller in a heartbeat, if I could choose, I'd take the the Trojan over the Tar Heel. If Miller is destined to become the next Randy Johnson, then Kennedy is destined to be the next Prior, and I'll take Prior any day of the week. He's TOM SEAVER!!! But then again, given that Kennedy compares favorably to Prior, I would imagine the Cubs would love to pluck him up to team with their pocket aces (Carlos and the greatest Trojan pitcher, and I'll remind you he went much higher than the lanky old Yankee.) So perhaps I don't wish he falls... But if he does miraculously make it to Melvin, does the modern day Anne Sullivan pull the trigger??

[colbyjack]

Given how Boras advisees have fallen the past couple of years, I don't think it's that crazy to think that Ian Kennedy could fall to the 16th spot.

 

Would the Brewers consider taking him? Since they've watched Stephen Drew, Jered Weaver, Mike Pelfrey and Luke Hochevar all slide right past them, I doubt it. Plus, Rickie Weeks is the only first-rounder under Jack Z's watch that hasn't signed relatively quick. The Brewers clearly value being able to get a player in their system, and they also clearly adhere to the recommended slot values as determined by the commissioner's office.

 

I agree though, on pure talent I take Kennedy if I have the #1 overall pick, because I think he's a more sure thing than Miller, Scherzer, etc. I disagree that he's similar to Prior, and he certainly doesn't have Seaver's fastball, but Anthony Reyes or Seth Etherton (hopefully with better results, although Reyes had a big year last season) may be a more fair comparison. Actually, the way he pitches and his stature is almost exactly like Ben Sheets.

[natedogge7]

the difference between sheets and kennedy though is that sheets consistently throws his fb 95-96 whereas i havent heard kennedy doing (90-93). now i dont follow brewer prospects much, but did sheets have the same fb velocity coming out of college or did his fb velocity build up as he climbed up through the system?

[colbyjack]

Sheets' fastball has added a few ticks the last couple of years, particularly during his awesome '04 season in which there were a few games where he was regularly clocked at 97. As a prospect and coming out of college he was mostly 92-95.

 

Here's BA's writeup on his stuff from 2001:

 

Strengths: Sheets has an above-average fastball that he throws regularly in the 92-95 mph range, but his bread-and-butter pitch is an old-fashioned, 12-to-6 curveball that buckles the knees of hitters. Because he has a good, sinking fastball and a decent changeup, hitters can?t sit on his curve.

 

Kennedy's fastball is a shade below that, and his curveball isn't as dominant as Sheets', but few have that kind of curve. Kennedy has a more well-rounded repertoire, using his changeup more than Sheets does, as well as mixing in a slider.